Upstream Geothermal Development - esmap.org Narendara Widjajanto_PGE .pdf · Upstream Geothermal...
Transcript of Upstream Geothermal Development - esmap.org Narendara Widjajanto_PGE .pdf · Upstream Geothermal...
Skyline Building Lt. 11Jl. MH. Thamrin No. 9, Jakarta PusatTelp: 021‐39833222 Fax: 021‐39833230www.pge.pertamina.com
Upstream Geothermal Development
Narendra Widjajanto
Netherlands, November 19, 2013
Outline
02 Desember 2013 Pages 2
Overview of Indonesia Geothermal PotentialOverview of Indonesia Geothermal Potential
Overview of Geothermal CyclesOverview of Geothermal Cycles
Exploration and Resource ConfirmationExploration and Resource Confirmation
Key Factor for Geothermal DevelopmentKey Factor for Geothermal Development
Next StepNext Step
Outline
02 Desember 2013 Pages 3
Overview of Indonesia Geothermal PotentialOverview of Indonesia Geothermal Potential
Overview of Geothermal CyclesOverview of Geothermal Cycles
Exploration and Resource ConfirmationExploration and Resource Confirmation
Key Factor for Geothermal DevelopmentKey Factor for Geothermal Development
Next StepNext Step
Source :
Indonesia has the highest potential for geothermal energy in the world, which remains largely untapped
02 Desember 2013 Page 4
▪ In spite of having the world’s largest geothermal resource, utilization remains low at only 4%
▪ Geothermal resource in Indonesia is high temperature resource, which enables more economical geothermal project development
GoI is making a strong push for renewable energy, with plans to significantly increase geothermal power generation
02 Desember 2013 Page 5
Target geothermal capacity
GW
100% =
2025 1
670 TWh
126 1
17
64
2010
146 TWh
57
17
25
46
GeothermalHydroOil
GasCoal
Newrequired
2025target
8.6
2013capacity
1.3
4.9
Plannedadditions
2.3
1 2025 proposition is assumed to be the same as shown in RUPTL 2020
Government plans to have 8~9 GW of geothermal energy capacity by 2025
▪ ~7 GW of additional geothermal capacity is needed by 2025, to reach RUPTL’s projected 12% share of power generation
▪ Current capacity expansion plans will only cover 1/3 of the gap
Target energy mix in Indonesia
SOURCE: PGE annual report, Press reports, Team analysis
Geothermal Resources Map of Indonesia
02 Desember 2013 Page 6
2554
IIbbooii‐‐JJ aabbooii 1100MMWWSS eeuullaawwaahh AAgg aamm 227755MMWW
LL aauu DDeebbuukk ‐‐DDeebbuukk // SS iibbaayy aakk 22MMWW,, 3388MMWW
SS aarruullaa –– SS iibbuuaall BB uuaall ii 66 3300MMWW
SS .. MMeerraappii –– SS aammppuurraagg aa 110000MMWW
SS iippaahhoolloonn –– TTaarruuttuunngg 5500MMWW
MMuuaarraallaabbuuhh 224400MMWW
GG.. TTaallaanngg 3300MMWW
SS uunngg aaii PP eennuuhh 335555MMWWLL eemmppuurr // KK eerriinncc ii 2200MMWW
BB .. GGeedduunngg HHuulluu LL aaii ss // TTaammbbaanngg SS aawwaahh 3000MMWW
MMaarrgg aa BB aayyuurr 117700MMWW
LL uummuutt BB aallaa ii 662200MMWW
SS uuoohh AAnnttaattaaii –– GG.. SS eekkiinnccaauu 339900MMWW
RR aajjaabbaass aa 112200MMWW
WWaaii RR aattaaii 112200MMWW
UUlluubbeelluu 444400MMWW
KK aammoojjaanngg 200 MMWW,,120 MMWW
CC ooss oollookk –– CC iiss uukkaarraammee 118800MMWW
CC iittaammaann –– GG.. KK aarraanngg 2200MMWW
GG.. SS aallaakk 3375MMWW,, 112200MMWW
DDaarraajjaatt 125555MMWW,, MW
GG.. WWaayyaanngg ‐‐ WWiinndduu 111100MMWW,, 229900MMWWGG.. PP aattuuhhaa 550000MMWW
GG.. KK aarraahhaa –– GG.. TTeellaagg aabbooddaass 440000MMWW
TTaannggkkuubbaannppeerraahhuu 2200MMWW
DDiieenngg 6600MMWW,, 334400MMWWTTeelloommooyyoo 5500MMWW
UUnnggaarraann 118800MMWWWWiilliiss // NNggeebbeell 112200MMWW
IIjjeenn 4400MMWW
BB eedduugguull 117755MMWW
HHuu’’uu DDaahhaa 3300MMWW
UUlluummbbuu 3366MMWWWWaaii SS aannoo 1100MMWW BB eennaa –– MMaattaallookkoo 2200MMWW
SS ookkoorriiaa –– MMuuttuubbuuss aa 2200MMWW
OOkkaa –– LL aarraannttuukkaa 2200MMWWAAttaaddeeii 1100MMWW
LL aahheennddoonngg ‐‐ TToommppaass oo 40 MMWW,, 332200MMWWKK oottaammoobbaagg uu 114400MMWW
SS uuwwaawwaa –– GGoorroonnttaalloo 5555MMWW
MMeerraannaa 220000MMWW
TTuulleehhuu 2200MMWW
JJ aaii lloolloo 2200MMWW
110
03
PGE’s Working Areas
02 Desember 2013 Page 7
STATUS : 2013
Sarulla - Sibual-buali(@=… MWe)
Sungai Penuh(@=… MWe)
Hululais – TambangSawah
(@= … MWe)
Lumut Balai -Margabayur(@= … MWe)
Ulubelu - Waypanas(@= 110 MWe)
JOC Cibeureum - Salak(@= 378 MWe)
JOC Wayang Windu(@= 227 MWe)
JV Patuha(@= … MWe)
JOC Darajat(@= 271 MWe)
Karaha - Talaga Bodas(@= … MWe)
Kamojang(@ = 200 MWe)
Iyang Argopuro(@= … MWe)
JOC Tabanan- Bali(@= … MWe)
Kotamobagu(@=… MWe)
Lahendong - Tompaso(@= 80 MWe)
Legend :
ProductionExploration/pengembangan
JOC : Joint Operating Contract
@ : Installed Capacity
KALIMANTAN
SULAWESI
MALUKU
PAPUA
Sibayak - Sinabung (@ = 12 MWe)
Concession Area = 14 (MEMR Decree No 2067K/30/MEM/2012Total Installed Capacity PGE = 402 MW
PGE projects are in different stages of project development
SOURCE: PGE
PRELIMINARY
Future projects PGE own projects
Iyang ArgapuroSemurupMargabayurTambang SawahMasigit GunturCiharus
Waypanas
Lumut Balai 1&2
Ulubelu 3&4
Kamojang 5
Karaha
Lahendong 5&6
Ulubelu 1&2SibayakKamojang 1‐4Lahendong 1‐4
Lumut Balai 3&4
Hululais
Sungai Penuh
Kotamobagu
Delineation drilling
Feasibility study
Infrastruc‐ture and exploration drilling
Geo scientific analysis
Desktop study
Production drilling
Power plant FEED
Power plant EPC
Steam field operation
Power plant operation
Exploration Operations and reservoir management Development
Outline
02 Desember 2013 Pages 9
Overview of Indonesia Geothermal PotentialOverview of Indonesia Geothermal Potential
Overview of Geothermal CyclesOverview of Geothermal Cycles
Exploration and Resource ConfirmationExploration and Resource Confirmation
Key Factor for Geothermal DevelopmentKey Factor for Geothermal Development
Next StepNext Step
GEOTHERMAL PROCESS
02 Desember 2013 Page 10
Outline
02 Desember 2013 Pages 11
Overview of Indonesia Geothermal PotentialOverview of Indonesia Geothermal Potential
Overview of Geothermal CyclesOverview of Geothermal Cycles
Exploration and Resource ConfirmationExploration and Resource Confirmation
Key Factor for Geothermal DevelopmentKey Factor for Geothermal Development
Next StepNext Step
A typical Geothermal Project has 3 Phases Upstream
SOURCE: Expert inputs
TYPICAL 50 MW PROJECT
NORCMajor mile‐stones
DevelopmentExploration Operation
Geology & Geo‐chemistry
Geo‐physics
Infrastructure & exploration drilling
Feasibility study
Desktop study
Delineation drilling
Production drilling
SGSconstruction
Opera‐tions and main‐tenance
Reservoir manage‐ment
Internal go/no‐go milestones
NOID Commissioning
Key activities
Drill 4‐7 production and injection
wells
Construct steam
gathering systems and
piping
Regular operations
Approxduration (months)
1 3‐4 6‐9 12‐15 2‐3 0‐6 Up to 15months
In parallel with
production drilling
N/A N/A
Approxcost ($)
$5k $30‐50k $300‐500k $15‐25m $300k (If needed) $25‐50m $10‐15m N/A N/A
MT survey
Approximate figures
Drill up to 3 discovery wells
02 Desember 2013 Pages 12
No Phase Activites Potensial Risk
1 • Geology & Geochemistry
• Geophysics• Infrastructure & exploration drilling
• Prepare exploration program • Process project approval for Environment
• Process local and regional permit for land and forest usage
• Procurement process and execution• Bridges dan roadways preparation• Land clearance with locals
• Geological Hazards (Landslide Subsidence vs“Cut & Fill”)
• Civil Works (Technology & Competency)
• Uncertainty for various permit approvals
2 Drilling(exploration & production)
• Prepare detailed drilling program • Rig Mobilization & Logistics• Rig review• Dilling process execution
• Drilling execution risk• Geological risk (hard rocks, fracture, permeability)
• Gas / steam leakages
3 Production Testing • Prepare testing facilities• Heating up period• Final testing
• Steam result confirmation delay due to long heating up period.
• Resource risk leads to steam availability/reinjection well below target
Exploration & Resource Confirmation Phase
02 Desember 2013 Pages 13
Outline
02 Desember 2013 Pages 14
Overview of Indonesia Geothermal PotentialOverview of Indonesia Geothermal Potential
Overview of Geothermal CyclesOverview of Geothermal Cycles
Exploration and Resource ConfirmationExploration and Resource Confirmation
Key Factor for Geothermal DevelopmentKey Factor for Geothermal Development
Next StepNext Step
Key Barriers For Developing Indonesia’s Geothermal Potential
02 Desember 2013 Page 15
Barriers make it challenge to mobilize significant investments for achieving GoI target
Key Barrier
Resource Risks
Domestic Capacity
High Exploration Cost and
Investment
Price Regulation
Land Permits & Concession
Rights
Resources can only be proven following expensive on‐site exploration
To date, no geothermal IPP tender has reached financial closure
Need government support to have favorable pricing mechanism for green
energy
Financial cost of geothermal higher than base‐load substitute (i.e. coal), when environmental impacts not considered
Mostly geothermal area is located in conservation
areas, need regulation to exclude geothermal activity
in forest regulation
Resource Risk Make it More Challenging To Mobilize Investment
02 Desember 2013 Page 16
Uncertainties associated with geothermal field conditions and resource characteristics during the initial stages of field development will cause developers to require a price premium for taking on this risk
SOURCE: ESMAP World Bank Geothermal Handbook 2012
Geothermal Project Cost Structure
02 Desember 2013 Page 17
• Cost ranges can vary depending a variety of factors such as: depth of the resource, geologic characteristics and temperature
• Upstream Cost less than Dowstream Cost but having the most riskiest part.
• The upstream phases, (drilling phase), can be considered the riskiest parts of geothermal project development.
For 50 MW Flashed Steam Geothermal Plant, % of totalSource: SBC Summary
Outline
02 Desember 2013 Pages 18
Overview of Indonesia Geothermal PotentialOverview of Indonesia Geothermal Potential
Overview of Geothermal CyclesOverview of Geothermal Cycles
Exploration and Resource ConfirmationExploration and Resource Confirmation
Key Factor for Geothermal DevelopmentKey Factor for Geothermal Development
Next StepNext Step
02 Desember 2013 Pages 19
No Barriers Explanation Next Steps1 Project delayed
due to Various Permits uncertainty
• Uncertainty for acquiring apporvals from local and national government agency
• Project socialization• Revised related procedures / regulation to support green energy development especially for geothermal activities
2 Resource and Upstream Risks
• Steam availability below target
• Difficulties in getting injection wells
• Expert and technology enhancement
• Operational excellence • Prepare sufficient time to develop geothermal fields properly (5‐7 years)
• Increase risk mitigation in developing upstream projects in parallel
• Upstream Risk beared by Government
Next Steps for Managing Geothermal Barriers
02 Desember 2013 Pages 20
No Barriers Explanation Next Steps3 Offtake
uncertainty and financial risk
• Adequate pricing for steam and electricity
• Propose more attractive new tariff to the government to increase certainty in geothermal investment projects
• Includes environment cost in coal tariff in order gain comparability with geothermal tariff
Next Steps for Managing Geothermal Barriers