Upper Colorado River Basinspatial analysis of water demand

Olga Wilhelmi

olgaw@ucar.edu

Kevin Sampson

Jennifer Boehnert

Kathleen Miller

NCAR, Boulder

Upper Colorado River Basin Pilot Update MeetingFebruary 24, 2011

Project goals • Provide information that is useful

for managing current drought risks and for adapting to changing climate in the UCRB.

• Objectives: – Assess knowledge gaps in the UCRB

water demand data– Analyze spatial and temporal patterns

in water demand– Examine topological relationships

among water users and their respective sources

– Link spatial (and non-spatial) information on water demand to water supply for drought early warning

Water demand estimation Lack of standard definitions and consistent methodologies for

water demand estimation Academic and operational purposes Categories

• Surveys of empirical data• Agroclimatological modeling• Modeling of future water demand based on population growth

Diverse scales of data aggregations / different temporal records National

• USGS: regional and national water use trends (5-year intervals) • BOR: annual consumptive uses and loses

State• Colorado Water Conservation Board and Department of Water Resources collect and

model data on water use (Colorado Decision Support System (CDSS)– HydroBase (historic, real-time, call chronology)– Tools: StateCU, StateMod

Local• Water providers• The Upper Colorado River Basin Study (Hydrospehre, 2003)

Local scale water demand

Secondary markets of water (transfers, exchanges, rent)

Colorado HydroBase Water diversion water use? Decreed water right = primary use? Incomplete “call chronology”

March-8

7

March-8

8

March-8

9

March-9

0

March-9

1

March-9

2

March-9

3

March-9

4

March-9

5

March-9

6

March-9

7

March-9

8

March-9

9

March-0

0

March-0

1

March-0

2

March-0

3

March-0

4

March-0

5

March-0

6

March-0

7

March-0

8

March-0

9

March-1

00

10

20

30

40

50

Calls Per Month

Calls Per Month

Spatial patterns of water demand

GIS System for Analysis / Visualization Geodatabase Component

• Spatial / Non-spatial tables archived together Map Document (GIS) Component

• Analysis and display and manipulation of spatial / non-spatial data

Toolboxes • Models built explicitly for performing geoprocessing

operations on the database

Flexibility to work across scales scales for water administration vs scales for drought

planning and response

Resources to Lease / Buy

Growth (future demand)

Water Right Seniority

Other users Upstream/

Downstream

Competition (Seasonality of demand)

Conceptual design and data availability

UserX,Y Location

MainSource

Local Weather/Drought

Conditions

Secondary Sources

Data Available

Data unavailable

Surface water (streams and reservoirs)Groundwater

Administration No.Assoc. StructureStructure

X, Y LocationStream Mile

X, Y Structure LocationWater right seniority

Lease/Trade/BuyWater AugmentationQuota Increase

Water Provider

Delivery

NIDIS water demand data model Data Model is used to design the schema of a database: tables,

columns, relationships

Provides a template for water demand projects and for NIDIS geodatabase

Allows to exchange data in a similar format

HydroBase

U.S. Drought Monitor

GeodatabaseNHD Plus

Tools

NIDIS Analysis tools Linking diversion records to irrigated parcels Linking users to each other on the river network Demand summaries by geography or sector (use

type) Developing drought “early warning” tools (linking

supply and demand)

Tools executed in ArcGIS DesktopFlexibility of input datasets (test on Yampa

Basin)

Demand estimation

Use of historical diversion table (StructureAnnualAmt) to derive average historical monthly diversions to a subset of structures

Baseline for ‘demand’ Can be analyzed sector by

sector Spatial and temporal

components of demand

Demand estimation (cont.)

• Hydrobase ‘StructureAnnualAmt’ table gives historical diversions from each structure on a monthly basis.

• Units in AF• Values for Summit, Grand, and Eagle Counties.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000 TotalAUGCOMDOMEVPFEDFIRFISHUOINDIRRMINMUNOTHPWRRCHRECSNOSTKSTOWLDSeries22

IRR89%

MUN11%

Net Volume

IRRMUN

Net volume of water rights for Grand County, by primary decreed use.

Interview w/ division engineer

Alan Martellaro - Div. 5 Engineer & Judy Sappington, River Administrator October 21, 2010

Basin vulnerabilities Relation to “A-B Line”

Demand measures Standardizing irrigation deliveries by parcel size

Suggestion of case study areas (i.e., Troublesome creek)

River Administration

• Unique methods for Division 5

administration– Zones that determine subjectivity of senior calls

• “A-B Line” (red)• Separates main stem

calls from local calls• Drawn/redrawn based

on frequency of calls from particular users

Irrigated Agriculture

Irrigated parcel layer in CDSS GIS Layers

> 50,000 acres irrigated land in study area

Each parcel associated with a diversion structure

Diversions yield parcel ‘wetness’ (acre feet per acre)

Irrigated Parcels on Troublesome Creek

Supply/demand analysis tools are in development Drought impacts “early

warning” analysis Linking users to

sources of supply potential input factors

Administration area, A-B line

Seniority in water rights system

Relative seniority Supply measure?

Summary and next steps The NIDIS water demand data model was designed to

provide a quantitative spatial analysis framework for geometrically connecting the water users to the network of water delivery systems within the context of a basin or other administrative unit. 

The combination of the spatial and non-spatial elements in a geodatabase allows analysis of water demand and potential drought impacts . 

Next steps: Documentation and testing of scalability of the assessment tools

and methods for the entire Upper Colorado River Basin. Linking the water demand analysis with the current tools for

monitoring water supply in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Thank You!