Uplands and climate change:government agency research interests

Understanding impacts

Evaluating risks

Evaluating adaptation options

Harriet Orr (EA) David Thompson (NE) Judith Stewart (Defra)Tom Nisbet (Forestry Commission)

Questions

• How is climate changing in the uplands?

• What impact on ecosystem services?(floods, droughts, water quality, ecology)

• Do we need to take action?• What adaptation measures are

possible?• Who should do them?

Why value uplands?

70% UK water resource from uplandsWe expect it to be of high qualityDilution of downstream pollutants

Unique ecosystemsUnique cultural landscapes

Source for downstream nutrients and sediments Headwaters- nursery areas especially for fish

Historically protected from developmentHistorically imp natural resources – again in the future?Carbon sinks?

Benefits far outside upland area – currently unrewarded

Can we expect these in the future?

Protecting and enhancing peat soils

Objectives• To determine the status of peat soils in order to identify and start to

address priority targets for action.• To co-ordinate Defra, EA and NE work on peat soils. To liaise with

Devolved Administrations.• To determine cost effective and practical management options.• To determine suitable policy levers to protect and restore peat soils.• To reduce the horticultural use of peat and promote peat

alternatives.• To influence domestic and international policy relating to peat use

and management.

Outcomes Targets

Retain & enhance stores C halt decline of soil C by 2025 (SFFS) & reduce GHG emissions

Protect & enhance peat based habitats & biodiversity

95% of England’s SSSIs in favourable or recovering condition by 2010 (PSA); habitats maintained & improved by 2015 (UK HAP)

Reduce horticultural use of peat 90% of UK soil improver & growing media peat free by 2010 (UK HAP)

Reduce flood risk within catchments containing peat soils

Improve water quality reduce DOC & sediment levels (WFD)

Covers upland and lowland peat soils in England – not organic-mineral or mineral soils

Project deliverables and products Work strand Key deliverables

1. Condition of peat

2. Policy

3. Evidence and gaps

• Map/GIS layer of the spatial distribution of peat soils

• Status of peat soils

•Prioritised list of peat soil areas for future actions

•Review policy framework

•Review of practical restoration projects

• Stakeholder workshop (May 2008)

• Advice products

Start September 07Review of current knowledge Sept-March 08Stakeholder Workshop May 08End?

Natural England - Carbon Management by Land Managers Research Priorities

1. Develop a robust and verifiable methodology for accrediting carbon benefits from peatland restoration projects, by:

• Quantify GHG flux from a geographically representative sample of degraded peatlands - to obtain baseline

• Quantify GHG flux from restored peatlands identify net carbon benefits over a range of time periods

2. Using data from (1) + national geographical analysis of condition of English peatlands:• Estimate current emissions and removals of GHGs from all English peatland• Estimate potential total carbon benefit from programme of peatland restoration• Estimate future emissions from English peatlands using climate/land use scenarios

3. Ascertain if the current Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) methodology used in the UK GHG Inventory is correctly estimating GHG emissions and removals from upland peat/organic soils.

Climate Change and Uplands: Forest Soils and Water

• Evaluation of C stocks in GB forests and impact of forestry practices (BioSoil, NIWT2)

• Assessing impact of woodland removal for peatland restoration on C balance (Greenhouse gas balance at Flanders Moss, Central Scotland; changes to peat condition at two Scottish sites)

• Assessing effects of climate change on forest-soil-water interactions (Long-term monitoring studies at Coalburn, N England, Halladale, N Scotland, 12 catchments in upland Wales and 5 Level II intensive forest monitoring sites)

• Assessing role of shade and riparian woodland management in controlling thermal stress to salmonid fish (New Forest).

• Role of floodplain and riparian woodland in flood risk management

Current Research Interests:

EA Business risks and science needs• 1. Indicators to detect and report climate change impacts on the

environment• 2. Capital investments (for water resources and flood

management) that target sites/regions of greatest risk (improving regional models)

• 3. POMs that deliver intended and lasting benefits• 4. Uptake and mainstreaming UKCIP08 climate change scenarios

in planning• 5. Practical guidance on managing ecosystem change

We need to manage for change

• What realistic measures can be taken to minimise impacts?

• Where are the critical locations?

• Do we have adequate policy tools to deliver adaptation?

Distribution of UK uplands (after Averis et al, 2004)

Impacts on uplands: new experiences and increased pressure on existing problems

Existing pressures:Water quality - colourAcid waters – slow recoveryIncreased sensitivity and responsiveness Carbon lossPeat drying and erosionLoss or shrinkage of wetlandsIncreased soil and peat erosionIncreased transport sediments

New experiences:Loss of carbon store?Habitat loss and species changeRisk of fireBright future for British agriculture Greater demand for scarcer water resourceIncreased agriculture on upland fringeBiofuelsExtending woodlandCarbon trading schemes?

Limiting and adapting to climate change in the uplands: a UK perspective - Orr et al, in review

‘Upland condition is cause for concern’

Key research needs:1. Soil C biophysical processes, flux, drivers2. Land management controls on flood and drought risk3. Impacts of climate change on freshwater ecology

Limitations to mitigation and adaptation• Lack of rural spatial planning• No regulation of land use• Lack of recognition for services received downstream• Lack of economic incentives to protect uplands (C sequestration must be proved)

Research questions posed by land quality

6 questions• Multiple benefits from restoration including

economic (costed) benefits • Quantified carbon budgets related to land use and

management• What services are lost from degraded peatlands

at what cost• Geographical variation in peatland function?• What will future climate change bring• Geographical sensitivity to cc