Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond Morris A. Bender
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Transcript of Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond Morris A. Bender
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Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond
Morris A. BenderGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA
Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas, Richard Yablonsky Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island
Carey Dickerman and Roger Stocker Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center
3-D Ocean Coupling
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NAVY’S VERSION OF THE GFDL MODEL (GFDN) HAD NOT BEEN UPGRADED SINCE 2003 AND LAGS IN SKILL
BEHIND THE VERSION RUN AT NCEP
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GFDN model Physics and Resolution were made consistent with NCEP’s GFDL Model
• Addition of Third Mesh (Doubling of the Innermost Resolution to 1/12 degree)
• Upgrade with NCEP’s Ferrier Micro-physics
(Replaced simplified large-scale condensation)• Dissipative Heating Effect Added• Improved Surface Momentum Fluxes Derived
from Wave Model
SUMMARY OF 2008 GFDN MODEL UPGRADES Made Operational November 2008
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GFDN MODEL COUPLED TO PRINCETON OCEAN MODEL IN ALL OCEAN BASINS
•Coupled to 3d version of POM model in Atlantic (Identical to current version operational in GFDL)•Coupled to 1d Version of POM in all Other Ocean Basins (e.g.,Epac, Wpac, Indian Ocean, South Pacific)(Current GFDL coupled to 1d version of POM in Eastern and Central Pacific)•Ocean initialized by the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) model on a daily basis in all basins except the Atlantic. •Loop Current, Gulf Stream, Warm and Cold Core Eddy Initialization in the Atlantic
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TESTS SHOWED IMPROVED TRACK AND INTENSITY SKILL AT ALL TIME LEVELS FOR SELECTED WPAC CASES
(2005-2007)
AVERAGE TRACK SKILL AVERAGE INTENSITY SKILL
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UPGRADES TO GFDN PLANNED F0R 2009
• Upgrade Coupling in the Pacific Basin from 1-D to 3-D Ocean Model (Spring 2009)
• Ocean initialized by NCODA data in the Atlantic Basin (2009-2010)
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Oceanic Features in the Western Pacific Will be Improved by replacing 1-D Ocean model with 3-D Ocean Model
0 hr
96 hr
1-D Coupling
1-D Coupling
3-D Coupling
3-D Coupling
Typhoon Nary (2007)
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1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling
Typhoon Cimaron: November 2nd , 0000 UTC, 2006
Demonstrates Importance of Upwelling for Slow Moving Storm
HOUR 0
HOUR 120 HOUR 120
1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling
HOUR 0
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Significantly Improved Prediction of Track and Intensity( Typhoon Cimaron: November 2nd , 0000 UTC, 2006)
1 1-D OCEAN COUPLING
2 3-D OCEAN COUPLING
3 2006 OPERATIONAL GFDN
MAXIMUM WINDS
CENTRAL PRESSURE
3-D Coupling
3-D Coupling
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Typhoon Ewiniar : July 3rd, 12z, 2006Fast Moving Storm May Have Less Impact with 3-D Coupling
1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling
HOUR 0
HOUR 120
HOUR 0
HOUR 120
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Typhoon Ewiniar (July 3rd, 1200 UTC, 2006)
1 1-D OCEAN COUPLING
2 3-D OCEAN COUPLING
3 2006 OPERATIONAL GFDN
MAXIMUM WINDS
CENTRAL PRESSURE
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OVERALL REDUCED INTENSITY ERRORS with 3-D Coupling Compared to 1-D
1-D GFDN
3-D GFDN
3-D GFDN
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REDUCED TRACK ERRORS IN DAYS 4 AND 5WITH 3-D COUPLING
OLD GFDN
3-D GFDN1-D GFDN
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3D Coupling Extended to Eastern and Central PacificHurricane John (August 31st, 2006)
1-D Coupling 3-D COUPLING
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Improved Details with High Resolution NCODA Ocean Data will be Extended to the Atlantic Basin
CLIMATOLOGY NCODA DATA
NOGAPS SSTs
Temperatures at 75 m
NCODA SSTs
Temperatures at 75 m
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PROPOSED UPGRADES TO GFDN 2010-2012 • Increase inner-nest resolution from 1/12th to 1/18th degree
• Full Coupling with Wave Model
• Improved Surface Fluxes
• Sea-Spray Effect Included
• Improved Radiation Package
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New Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave model design for GFDN
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SUMMARY
• UPGRADED GFDN MODEL MADE OPERATIONAL NOVEMBER 2008
• GFDN OCEAN COUPLING IN PACIFIC BASIN TO BE UPGRADED FROM 1-D TO 3-D OCEAN MODEL IN 2009
• TEST RESULTS INDICATED SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED INTENSITY PREDICTION WITH REDUCED TRACK ERRORS IN DAYS 4 AND 5
• NAVY’S OCEAN DATA ANALYSIS (NCODA) TO BE EXTENED TO ATLANTIC BASIN (2009-2010)
• FULL COUPLING WITH WAVE MODEL PLANNED FOR 2010 INCLUDING SEA-SPRAY EFFECTS