Update on the Livestock & Meat Situation...April 28, 2020 Update on the Livestock & Meat Situation...
Transcript of Update on the Livestock & Meat Situation...April 28, 2020 Update on the Livestock & Meat Situation...
April 28, 2020
Update on the Livestock & Meat Situation
Jayson Lusk, Department Head & Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics
James Mintert, Director, Center for Commercial Agriculture
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Boxed Beef Prices Strengthened As Meat Supplies Tightened
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01/11 02/29 04/18 06/06 07/25 09/12 10/31 12/19
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Week Ending
Choice Boxed Beef CutoutWeekly Average
2019 2020 5 Yr Avg
Source: USDA & LMIC Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
Meat prices taking off again
Source: Lusk calculations based on USDA data
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Wholesale Pork Values Collapsed InitiallyBut Rebounded When Packer Shutdowns Reduced Supplies
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Date
U.S. Pork Cutout ValueWeekly Average
2019 2020 5 Yr Avg
Source: AMS-USDA Purdue Center for Commecial Agriculture
Meat prices taking off again
Source: Lusk calculations based on USDA data
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Meat packing is vulnerable to worker illnesses
15 pork plants slaughtered 59% of all hogs
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
COMMERCIAL HOG SLAUGHTER 2019(1000 Head)
Other States 23168 U.S. Total 129913
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS
DE-MD 18
New England 34
State ShareIA = 30%IL = 10%MN = 9%NC = 7%MO = 7%IN = 7%NE = 6%SD = 4%
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
COMMERCIAL CATTLE SLAUGHTER 2019(1000 Head)
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS
DE-MD 38
New England 28
Other States 2884 U.S. Total 33555
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Weekly Hog Processing Volume Has Declined 26% Since Early March
1.7
1.9
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01/11 02/29 04/18 06/06 07/25 09/12 10/31 12/19
Million Head
Week Ending
Federally Inspected Hog SlaughterWeekly .
201920205 Yr Avg
Source: USDA & LMIC Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
375400425450475500525550575600625
1/11 2/29 4/18 6/6 7/25 9/12 10/31 12/19
Million Pounds
Week Ending
Federally Inspected Pork ProductionWeekly
201920205 Yr Avg
Source: USDA & LMIC Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
Weekly Pork Production Has Declined 26% Since Early March
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Daily hog processing down almost 50% yesterday
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
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Million Pounds
Week Ending
Federally Inspected Beef ProductionWeekly
201920205 Yr Avg
Source: USDA & LMIC COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 27, 2020Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
Weekly Beef Production Has Declined 32% Since Last Week of March
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Daily cattle processing down almost 50% yesterday
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Chicken Production Down 12% Since Early March
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1/11 2/29 4/18 6/6 7/25 9/12 10/31 12/19
Billion Lbs
Week Ending
Federally Inspected Young Chicken ProductionWeekly
201920205 Yr Avg
Source: USDA & LMIC Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Cold Storage May Help Buffer the Supply Shock
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Cold Storage May Help Buffer the Supply Shock
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Hog Prices Down Nearly 40% Since Mid-March
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JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
BARROW AND GILT PRICESIowa – So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly
Avg. 2014-18 2019 2020
Data Source: USDA-AMS & LMIC
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Baby Pig Prices Down Sharply Based Upon
Weak Market Hog Price Expectations for Late 2019
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Livestock Marketing Information Center
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EARLY WEANED PIG PRICESNational, 10-12 Lbs, Delivered, Weekly
Avg. 2014-18 2019 2020
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
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Week Ending
Kansas Direct Slaughter Steer PricesWeekly Average Cash Prices
2019 5 Yr Avg 2020
Source: AMS-USDA, Dodge City, KS Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
Fed Steer Prices Have Fallen 17% Since Last Week of March
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Feeder Cattle Prices Have Rebounded From Their LowsBut Are Still 10% Lower than in Early March
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Week
Kentucky 700-800 Lb. Feeder Steer PricesWeekly Average Cash Prices
2019 2020 5 Yr Avg
Source: AMS-USDA, Frankfort, KY & LMIC Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Responding to Declining Prices & Concern About Future DemandCattle Feeders Reduced Placements of Cattle On Feed in Late February & March
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Million Head
Month
U.S. Net Placements of Cattle On Feed Lots Over 1,000 Head
2020 2019 5 Yr. Avg.
Source: USDA Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Cattle Feeders Pulled Marketings of Fed CattleAhead in Late February and March
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Million Head
Month
U.S. Fed Cattle MarketingsLots Over 1000 Head
2020 2019 5 Yr. Avg.
Source: USDA Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Result: Cattle On Feed Inventory 6% Below A Year Ago
10.0010.2510.5010.7511.0011.2511.5011.7512.0012.25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Million Head
Month
U.S. Cattle On Feed Lots Over 1000 Head
2020 2019 5 Yr. Avg.
Source: USDA, Cattle on Feed Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
COVID19’s Impact on Meat and Livestock, April 28, 2020
Seasonal Strengthening of Choice-Select Spread Still On Track
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$/cwt.
Week Ending
Choice-Select Boxed Beef CutoutWeekly Average
20192020
5 Yr Avg
Source: USDA & LMIC Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
April 28, 2020
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