Update on the Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems (CONCEPTS) H....

Update on the Canadian Operational Network of Coupled

Environmental PredicTion Systems (CONCEPTS)

H. Ritchie1,4, G. Smith1, J.-M. Belanger1, C. Beaudoin1, P. Pellerin1, M. Buehner1, A. Caya1, F. Roy2, F. Dupont1, M. Faucher2, T. Carrieres3, S. Desjardins4, Y. Lu5, F. Davidson6, D. Lefaivre7, …., J. Chanut, M. Drevillon8, B. Tranchant8, G. Garric8 and C.-E. Testut8

1 Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada2 Centre Météorologique Canadien, Environment Canada3 Canadian Ice Service, Environment Canada4 National Laboratory for Marine and Coastal Meteorology, Environment Canada5 Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada6 Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada7 Institut Maurice-Lamontagne, Fisheries and Oceans Canada8 Mercator-Océan, Toulouse, France

GOVST SMRCP-TT, Paris, 16 November, 2011

– April 21, 2023

Outline

• CONCEPTS Initiative

• NEMO Ice-Ocean Modelling

• Global Ice-ocean Prediction System

• Regional Ice-ocean Prediction System

• Summary

– April 21, 2023

CONCEPTS

• Several new coupled systems under development as part of CONCEPTS

– Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental Prediction Systems

• Tri-departmental collaboration– To develop coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean

forecasting systems• Model development

– Coupling GEM to NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean)

• Collaboration with Mercator– French operational oceanographic group

CONCEPTS

– April 21, 2023

The Need for a Canadian Ice-Ocean Forecasting Capability

• Weather prediction (coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice systems)• Sea ice prediction • e.g. CCG: seal hunt, navigation• Fisheries and aquaculture management• Increased understanding of biological field observations• Attribution and mitigation of regional climate change impacts• Risk assessment for extreme events (sea level, waves,

currents)• Search and Rescue, dispersion of pollutants

Canada requires ice-ocean forecasts and information services for:

– April 21, 2023

CONCEPTS• Aims:

– Development of Regional and Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Forecasting Systems

– Global coupled medium-to-monthly forecasting system:▪ Initially: produce 10 day global ice-ocean forecasts

– 1/4° resolution NEMO-ORCA025 ice-ocean model– Initialized with Mercator SAM2 ocean analyses and CIS/MRD ice analyses

▪ Couple to CMC’s Global Deterministic Prediction System▪ Monthly forecasting system using 1° resolution NEMO and

CMC’s Global Ensemble Prediction System

– Regional short-term forecasting system▪ Domain covers N. Atlantic + Arctic at 1/12° resolution▪ Couple to CMC Regional Deterministic Prediction System▪ Build on developments made by CNOOFS

April 21, 2023 6

Altimeter ARGOOcean modelling &Data Assimilation

Coupled Global NEMO/GEM

General goal of CONCEPTS

– April 21, 2023

Ice-ocean modelling using NEMO

• Global 1/4° resolution– Medium range forecasting

• Global 1° resolution– Monthly-to-seasonal forecasting

• N. Atlantic and Arctic 1/12°– Short-to-medium regional

forecasting

• Great lakes 2km– Short term forecasting

1/4° Global

1° Global

1/12° N. Atlantic and Arctic

CMC SST analysis: Data assimilated

• AMSR-E (passive microwave) retrievals from RSS gridded on a 0.25 grid (65,000 /day)

• NAVO (infrared) retrievals for NOAA-18, NOAA-19 and

• METOP-A (45,000 /day from each source)

• A/ATSR (infrared) retrievals from ESA (16,000 /day)

• Proxy SSTs based on the CMC ice analysis (9,000/ day)

• Ships (1500 /day)

• Drifters (1200 /day)

• Moored buoys (200 /day)

Comparison of zonally averaged analysis error for 8 products based on independent Argo floats

– April 21, 2023

CIS/MRD Sea-ice Analysis System (3Dvar FGAT persistence first guess)

• North American Analysis: • Four analyses per day of ice

concentration at 5 km resolution• Global Analysis:

• two analyses per day on 10km grid

• Currently assimilates: • SSM/I, AMSR-E, CIS daily

charts, Radarsat image analyses

• Operational since March 2011• Work in progress to add:

• SSMIS, scatterometer, visible-infrared, SAR and ice thickness satellite-based observations

M. Buehner, T. Carrieres, L. Pogson, A. Caya, …

SSM/I AMSR-E

CIS Chart RadarSAT

– April 21, 2023

CONCEPTS Global Ice-ocean forecasting system

Medium-range Coupled Global Prediction System• Aims:

– Improve 10day deterministic weather forecasts– Backbone for other CONCEPTS systems

▪ Boundary conditions for regional system, wave model▪ Global conditions available for emergency response (e.g. DND)

• Description:– Based on Mercator operation system (ORCA025 with SAM2)– Also constrained with CIS/MRD 3DVAR ice analysis– Coupled to 33km (25km) GEM global

• Status:– Routine production of weekly ice-ocean analyses since Dec. 2010 – to

implement operationally in 2012– Evaluation of ice-ocean forecasts underway– Starting initial evaluation of coupled runs– Mercator monitoring system being installed

– April 21, 2023

CONCEPTS Global Ice-ocean forecasting system

Monthly/seasonal Coupled Global Prediction System

• Aims: – Improve monthly ensemble forecasts by adding coupled ice-ocean

– Develop configuration for GEM-NEMO seasonal forecasting system

• Description:– Based on 1deg global NEMO (ORCA1)

– Initialize with SAM2+3DVAR analysis

– Coupled to GEM global ensemble system

• Status:– Basic low-resolution GEM-ORCA1 configuration working

– Will begin initial evaluation of coupled runs shortly

▪ with Hai Lin and Bernard Dugas

– April 21, 2023

Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Forecast System for the Gulf of St. Lawrence

• Initiated 13 years ago by the Maurice Lamontagne Institute (DFO) and Recherche en Prévision Numérique (EC)

• EC and DFO have successfully developed a fully-interactive coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean forecasting system for the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL)

• This system has been running operationally at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) since June 2011

• Results during the past years have demonstrated that the coupled system produces improved weather forecasts in and around the GSL during all seasons

– Shows that atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions are indeed important even for short-term Canadian weather forecasts

– Great potential for improved ice-ocean components and global systems

Surface temperature (TT)

Forecast hour

Dew point temperature (TD)

Forecast hour

Statistics for February 2008

UncoupledFully coupled

Operational implementation

– April 21, 2023

CONCEPTS Regional forecasting system

• C-NOOFS: Canadian-Newfoundland Operational Oceanographic Forecasting System

• Lead: F. Davidson (NAFC)• Produces daily 10-day forecasts at 1/12°

resolution for the Northwest Atlantic • Initialized using Mercator data assimilation

system. • Assimilates observations of:

▪ Satellite sea level anomaly data▪ Satellite and in situ surface temperature▪ Sub-surface temperature and salinity▪ CMC/CIS Ice analysis

• Designed to meet needs of Coast Guard and Navy, as well as variety of applications influenced by sea ice

C-NOOFS

EC’s involvement in METAREA’s

• Development of an integrated marine Arctic prediction system in support of METAREA monitoring and warnings.

• Development of short-term marine forecast system using a regional high resolution coupled multi-component modelling (atmosphere, land, snow, ice, ocean, wave) and data assimilation system

• To predict:- Near Surface atmospheric conditions,- Sea ice (concentration, pressure, drift, ice edge) - Freezing spray,- Waves, and- Ocean conditions (temperature and currents)

• Improved Arctic monitoring

– April 21, 2023

N. Atlantic/Arctic Coupled Forecasting System

• Build on CNOOFS and Coupled GSL

• Develop coupled forecasting system for N. America/Arctic (METAREAS)

• Couple NEMO to GEM regional (10km)

• 5km LAM over METAREAS 17&18

• with 5km Atm 4DVAR/EnKF

• 1/12th regional SAM2

• Produce 48hr weather and marine forecasts

C-NOOFS

1/12°

GEM RDPS

10km

– April 21, 2023

CONCEPTS Regional Configuration

1/12° Atlantic/Arctic system• Work underway to evaluate/develop

configuration• Include tides (wt conservative non-linear

free surface)• Develop 1/12° coastal SAM2• Combine SAM2 with 3DVAR ice analysis

– April 21, 2023

C-NOOFS On-going developments: Tidal evaluations

Global M2 Tidal Product (FES 2004)

C-NOOFS

Zeliang Wang

– April 21, 2023

Ice Forecasting System

Significant forecast skill as measured against persistence of ice analysis at 24 and 120 hr

C. Beaudoin

24hr

120hr

Persistence Forecast

RMS difference from CIS charts

Day of month (Sept. 2009)

• Produces 48hr forecasts daily on 5km grid

• Initialized from North American Ice Analyses

• Preliminary results show significant forecast skill in ice concentration

• Planned operational implementation for 2012

– April 21, 2023

Sea Ice model development

• Led by : J-F Lemieux (MRD)• Several projects are starting now to investigate

representation of small-scale features in sea ice• In collaboration with B. Tremblay (McGill) and D. Dumont

(UQAR)• Areas of particular study:

– Suitability of standard sea ice rheologies for high-resolution modelling

– Development of new rheologies– Landfasting, ice-arching– Wave-ice interactions– Numerics (e.g. convergence, solvers)

Summary & conclusion

• Early CONCEPTS systems have matured and are being implemented operationally.

• Regional systems are converging on a coupled GEM-NEMO framework for application in a variety of Canadian regions, with the Arctic as a major focus.

• An initial global ice-ocean forecast system has been developed and evaluated.

• A coupling-ready global ice-ocean data assimilation and forecast system has been developed and preliminary assessments of ice-ocean forecasts and coupled GEM-NEMO forecasts are underway.

• We look forward to continuing complementary, mutually beneficial international collaborations and exchanges.

Update on the Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems (CONCEPTS) H....

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Transcript of Update on the Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems (CONCEPTS) H....