Update on market and economic developments · 24 SA rand against the US dollar, pound & euro...

Update on market and economic developmentsTo 30 June 2020

Local market developments

3

SA asset class returns

Source: Bloomberg to 30 June 2020

2016 2017 2018 2019Q3

2019Q4

2019Q1

2020Q2

2020 Jun 2020 YTD 2020 12 months

ALSI 2.6% 21.0% -8.5% 12.0% -4.6% 4.6% -21.4% 23.2% 7.7% -3.2% -3.3%

ALBI 15.5% 10.2% 7.7% 10.3% 0.7% 1.7% -8.7% 9.9% -1.2% 0.4% 2.8%

SA Cash 7.4% 7.5% 7.3% 7.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 0.5% 3.2% 6.9%

ALPI -0.4% 14.6% -25.0% -0.4% -4.2% 1.2% -48.1% 18.7% 13.0% -38.3% -40.2%

12 months to 30 June 2020

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr-

20

May

-20

Jun-

20

FTSE/JSE All Share Index SA All Bond Index SA Cash FTSE/JSE All Property Index

4

SA asset class cumulative returns


Cumulative return Annualised return

ALSI 16.1% 5.1%

ALBI 26.4% 8.1%

SA Cash 23.1% 7.2%

ALPI -48.3% -19.8%

3 years to 30 June 2020

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep-

18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep-

19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20


5

SA asset class cumulative returns



ALSI 22.6% 4.2%

ALBI 43.5% 7.5%

SA Cash 41.6% 7.2%

ALPI -44.3% -11.0%


40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep-

18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep-

19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20


6

SA equities rallied in June


The FTSE/JSE All Share Index (in ZAR) (54,362)

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

7

SA equities: market cap returns


2016 2017 2018 2019Q3

2019Q4

2019Q1

2020Q2

2020 Jun 2020 YTD 2020 12 months

Large Caps -1.6% 23.1% -8.3% 12.4% -5.2% 4.5% -19.2% 24.2% 7.8% 0.4% -0.5%

Mid Caps 26.9% 7.4% -9.7% 15.6% -1.8% 12.9% -35.6% 15.4% 6.0% -25.7% -17.6%

Small Caps 20.9% 3.0% -14.6% -4.1% -3.2% 0.7% -32.6% 17.2% 11.3% -21.0% -22.9%


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr-

20

May

-20

Jun-

20

SA Large Caps (Top 40) SA Mid Caps SA Small Caps

8

SA equities: market cap returns



Large Caps 26.5% 4.8%

Mid Caps -3.0% -0.6%

Small Caps -26.0% -5.8%


60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep-

18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep-

19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

SA Large Caps (Top 40) SA Mid Caps SA Small Caps

9

SA equities: sector returns


2016 2017 2018 2019Q3

2019Q4

2019Q1

2020Q2

2020 Jun 2020 YTD 2020 12 months

ALSI 2.6% 21.0% -8.5% 12.0% -4.6% 4.6% -21.4% 23.2% 7.7% -3.2% -3.3%

Industrials -6.5% 22.5% -17.5% 8.9% -2.5% 0.0% -8.4% 16.6% 8.3% 6.8% 4.0%

Resources 30.8% 14.1% 11.0% 23.3% -8.4% 13.7% -26.7% 41.0% 8.8% 3.4% 7.7%

Financials 5.4% 20.6% -8.8% 0.6% -6.8% 2.8% -39.5% 12.9% 4.2% -31.7% -34.5%


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr-

20

May

-20

Jun-

20

FTSE/JSE All Share Industrials Resources Financials

10

SA equities: sector returns



ALSI 22.6% 4.2%

Industrials 17.9% 3.3%

Resources 37.0% 6.5%

Financials -23.7% -5.3%


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep-

18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep-

19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

FTSE/JSE All Share Industrials Resources Financials

11

Financials, industrials and resources


SA equities: sector performances relative to the FTSE/JSE All Share Index: 12 months to 30 June 2020

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr-

20

May

-20

Jun-

20

FTSE/JSE All Share Index Industrials relative to ALSI Financials relative to ALSI Resources relative to ALSI

12

SA equities (ALSI): trailing PE ratio

Source: Infront to 30 June 2020

Mean: 15.6Standard Deviation: 3.2

20 years to 30 June 2020 (17.3)

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Jun-

00

Jun-

01

Jun-

02

Jun-

03

Jun-

04

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

13

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

May

-00

May

-01

May

-02

May

-03

May

-04

May

-05

May

-06

May

-07

May

-08

May

-09

May

-10

May

-11

May

-12

May

-13

May

-14

May

-15

May

-16

May

-17

May

-18

May

-19

May

-20

SA equities (ALSI): dividend yield


20 years to 30 June 2020 (3.9%)


14

SA equities: earnings growth Rolling 12-month % change -2.0%


FTSE/JSE All Share Index earnings growth

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jun-

01

Jun-

02

Jun-

03

Jun-

04

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

15

SA earnings growth slipped into negative territory in June

Source: Bloomberg, Infront to 30 June 2020

SA earnings growth (% change yoy) (-2.0%) & FTSE/JSE All Share Index (54,362)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jun-

01

Dec

-01

Jun-

02

Dec

-02

Jun-

03

Dec

-03

Jun-

04

Dec

-04

Jun-

05

Dec

-05

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

FTSE

/JSE

All S

hare

Inde

x

SA E

arng

s G

row

th (y

oy)

SA Earnings Growth (yoy) FTSE/JSE All Share Index

16

Foreigners were net sellers of SA equities in June



-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

17

Foreigners bought SA bonds in June



-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Jun-

05

Dec

-05

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

18

Interest rates were cut at the last MPC meeting


Prime overdraft rate (7.25%) & FTSE/JSE All Share rolling 12 month % change (-3.3%)

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Jun-

98

Jun-

99

Jun-

00

Jun-

01

Jun-

02

Jun-

03

Jun-

04

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

Prim

e ov

erdr

aft

rate

FSTE

/JSE

All S

hare

rolli

ng 12

-mon

th p

rice

chan

ge

%

FTSE/JSE All Share rolling 12 months % change Prime overdraft rate

19

Local and global equities15 years to 30 June 2020


FTSE/JSE All Share Index (in US$) (229) & MSCI ACWI (in US$) (254)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

FTSE/JSE All Share Index US$ MSCI ACWI US$

20

Domestic equities continue to have a high correlation to emerging markets15 years to 30 June 2020


FTSE/JSE All Share Index (in US$) (229) & MSCI Emerging Markets Index (in US$) (251)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

FTSE/JSE All Share Index (US$) MSCI Emerging Markets Index (US$)

21

SA bond yieldsYield on the generic SA 10 year bond (9.2%)

Source: Bloomberg to 30 June 2020Note: R2030 government bond used as current proxy

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep-

18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep-

19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

22

SARB cut interest rates at its last meeting


Prime overdraft rate

7

9

11

13

15

17

Jun-

00

Jun-

01

Jun-

02

Jun-

03

Jun-

04

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

Global market developments

24

SA rand against the US dollar, pound & euro

Source: Bloomberg to 30 June 2020. * Depreciation (+); Appreciation (-)

2016 2017 2018 2019Q3

2019Q4

2019Q1

2020Q2

2020 Jun 2020 YTD 2020 12 months

Rand against US$* -11.3% -9.8% 16.1% -2.8% 7.5% -7.9% 27.4% -2.4% -1.1% 24.3% 23.2%

Rand against £* -25.7% -1.1% 9.4% 1.2% 4.1% -0.5% 19.0% -2.5% -0.6% 16.0% 20.1%

Rand against €* -13.9% 2.9% 10.6% -4.7% 3.2% -5.1% 24.4% 0.1% 0.2% 24.5% 21.9%

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr-

20

May

-20

Jun-

20

<100

app

reci

atio

n; >

100

depr

ecia

tion

Rand against the US Dollar Rand against the British Pound Rand against the Euro


25

SA rand against the US dollar, pound & euro

Source: Bloomberg to 30 June 2020. * Depreciation (+); Appreciation (-)


Rand against US$* 43.0% 7.4%

Rand against £* 12.6% 2.4%

Rand against €* 44.2% 7.6%


80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep-

18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep-

19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

<100

app

reci

atio

n; >

100

depr

ecia

tion

Rand against the US Dollar Rand against the British Pound Rand against the Euro

26

SA rand against the US dollar (R17.38/US$)


6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

27

SA rand against the UK pound (R21.51/£)


10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

28

SA rand against the euro (R19.54/€)


8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

29

SA equities vs. developed & emerging markets


2016 2017 2018 2019Q3

2019Q4

2019Q1

2020Q2

2020 Jun 2020 YTD 2020 12 months

ALSI 2.6% 21.0% -8.5% 12.0% -4.6% 4.6% -21.4% 23.2% 7.7% -3.2% -3.3%

Developed Markets -4.7% 10.4% 6.0% 24.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.5% 16.5% 1.5% 17.2% 26.7%

Emerging Markets -1.4% 23.8% -0.8% 15.1% 3.0% 3.0% -2.7% 15.3% 6.2% 12.2% 19.0%

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr-

20

May

-20

Jun-

20

FTSE/JSE All Share Index MSCI World Index MSCI Emerging Markets Index

12 months to 30 June 2020 (All in SA rand)

30

SA equities vs. developed & emerging markets



ALSI 22.6% 4.2%

Developed Markets 99.6% 14.8%

Emerging Markets 64.7% 10.5%

5 years to 30 June 2020 (All in SA rand)

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep-

18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep-

19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

FTSE/JSE All Share Index MSCI World Index MSCI Emerging Markets Index

31

Global equities


All in US Dollars 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Jun 2020YTD

2020 12 months

Nikkei 225 5.9% 25.7% -8.5% 22.4% 2.8% 8.2% -18.4% 17.9% 2.0% -3.8% 7.1%

S&P 500 12.0% 21.8% -4.4% 31.5% 1.7% 9.1% -19.6% 20.5% 2.0% -3.1% 7.5%

FTSE 100 -0.2% 22.6% -14.0% 22.1% -2.2% 10.8% -28.8% 9.0% 2.2% -22.4% -15.9%

ALSI 15.7% 34.1% -21.2% 15.3% -11.3% 13.6% -38.3% 26.2% 9.0% -22.1% -21.5%

MSCI ACWI 7.9% 24.0% -9.4% 26.6% 0.0% 9.0% -21.4% 19.2% 3.2% -6.3% 2.1%

MSCI Emerging Market 11.2% 37.3% -14.6% 18.4% -4.2% 11.8% -23.6% 18.1% 7.3% -9.8% -3.4%

Euro Stoxx 50 0.7% 24.4% -16.2% 25.7% -1.1% 8.3% -27.1% 20.3% 7.8% -12.3% -6.0%

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr-

20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Nikkei 225 S&P 500 FTSE 100 ALSI MSCI ACWI MSCI Emerging Market Euro Stoxx 50

12 months to 30 June 2020 (All in US dollars)

32

Global equities


All in US Dollars Cumulative return Annualised return

Nikkei 225 37.8% 6.6%

S&P 500 66.5% 10.7%

FTSE 100 -9.1% -1.9%

ALSI -14.3% -3.0%

MSCI ACWI 36.7% 6.5%

MSCI Emerging Market 15.1% 2.9%

Euro Stoxx 50 8.2% 1.6%

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep-

18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep-

19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Nikkei 225 S&P 500 FTSE 100 ALSI MSCI ACWI MSCI Emerging Market Euro Stoxx 50

5 years to 30 June 2020 (All in US dollars)

33

MSCI ACWI (in US$) (525)

MSCI All Countries World IndexGlobal equities


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jun-

90

Jun-

92

Jun-

94

Jun-

96

Jun-

98

Jun-

00

Jun-

02

Jun-

04

Jun-

06

Jun-

08

Jun-

10

Jun-

12

Jun-

14

Jun-

16

Jun-

18

Jun-

20

34

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jun-

95

Jun-

96

Jun-

97

Jun-

98

Jun-

99

Jun-

00

Jun-

01

Jun-

02

Jun-

03

Jun-

04

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

Global equities: trailing PE ratio


MSCI ACWI PE ratio (20.8)


35

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

Jun-

03

Jun-

04

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

Global equities: price to book ratio


MSCI ACWI price to book ratio (2.3)


36

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Jun-

03

Jun-

04

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

Global equities: dividend yield


MSCI ACWI dividend yield (2.3%)


37

Developed market government bond yields remained broadly flat in June


Developed market 10 year government bond yields: USA (0.7%), UK (0.2%) & Germany (-0.5%)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jun-

05

Dec

-05

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

Yiel

d (%

)

USA Government 10 year bond UK Government 10 year bond Germany Government 10 year bond

Economic developments

39

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

Dec

-03

Jun-

04

Dec

-04

Jun-

05

Dec

-05

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

Dec

-20

Jun-

21

Dec

-21

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

Repo Rate (LHS) CPI (RHS)

Ninety OneForecast

Inflation set to remain contained, potentially allowing for more accommodative policy

Forecasts are inherently limited and are not a reliable indicator of future results.Source: Ninety One as at 3 June 2020

SA inflation and interest rate expectations

40Source: Bloomberg to 30 June 2020

US Institute for Supply Management Index (52.6)

Expansion

Contraction

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jun-

85

Jun-

87

Jun-

89

Jun-

91

Jun-

93

Jun-

95

Jun-

97

Jun-

99

Jun-

01

Jun-

03

Jun-

05

Jun-

07

Jun-

09

Jun-

11

Jun-

13

Jun-

15

Jun-

17

Jun-

19

US manufacturing sentiment rose back into positive territory in June

41

SA manufacturing – sentiment improved in June


SA Purchasing Managers’ Index (53.9)

Contraction

Expansion

35

40

45

50

55

60

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

42

European, UK and US rates remain very accommodative


Developed market short-term interest rates: UK (Clearing bank rate, 0.10%), US (Fed funds rate, 0.25%), EU (repo rate, 0.00%)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

Inte

rest

Rat

es %

UK REPO FED REPO EURO REPO

43

US$ gold price strengthened in June


Gold in US$ terms ($1,781/ounce)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Jun-

85

Jun-

87

Jun-

89

Jun-

91

Jun-

93

Jun-

95

Jun-

97

Jun-

99

Jun-

01

Jun-

03

Jun-

05

Jun-

07

Jun-

09

Jun-

11

Jun-

13

Jun-

15

Jun-

17

Jun-

19

44

Rand gold price increased in June


Gold price in SA rand terms (R31,000/ounce)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Jun-

85

Jun-

87

Jun-

89

Jun-

91

Jun-

93

Jun-

95

Jun-

97

Jun-

99

Jun-

01

Jun-

03

Jun-

05

Jun-

07

Jun-

09

Jun-

11

Jun-

13

Jun-

15

Jun-

17

Jun-

19

45

US$ oil price firmed in June


Crude oil in US$ terms ($41.15/barrel)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

46

US$ platinum price weakened in June


Platinum price in US$ terms ($829/ounce)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jun-

96

Jun-

97

Jun-

98

Jun-

99

Jun-

00

Jun-

01

Jun-

02

Jun-

03

Jun-

04

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

47

Rand platinum price fell in June


Platinum price in rand (R14,411/ounce)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Jun-

95

Jun-

96

Jun-

97

Jun-

98

Jun-

99

Jun-

00

Jun-

01

Jun-

02

Jun-

03

Jun-

04

Jun-

05

Jun-

06

Jun-

07

Jun-

08

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Jun-

20

Thank you

www.ninetyone.com

49

Important information

All information and opinions provided are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a fiduciary capacity. No one should act upon such information or opinion without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of a particular situation. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.

Collective investment scheme funds are generally medium to long term investments and the manager, Ninety One Fund Managers SA (RF) (Pty) Ltd, gives no guarantee with respect to the capital or the return of the fund. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of participatory interests (units) may go down as well as up. Funds are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. The fund may borrow up to 10% of its market value to bridge insufficient liquidity. A schedule of charges, fees and advisor fees is available on request from the manager which is registered under the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act. Additional advisor fees may be paid and if so, are subject to the relevant FAIS disclosure requirements. Performance shown is that of the fund and individual investor performance may differ as a result of initial fees, actual investment date, date of any subsequent reinvestment and any dividend withholding tax. There are different fee classes of units on the fund and the information presented is for the most expensive class. Fluctuations or movements in exchange rates may cause the value of underlying international investments to go up or down. Where the fund invests in the units of foreign collective investment schemes, these may levy additional charges which are included in the relevant TER. Additional information on the funds may be obtained, free of charge, at www.ninetyone.com. Ninety One SA (Pty) Ltd (“Ninety One SA”) is an authorised financial services provider and a member of the Association for Savings and Investment SA (ASISA).

Investment Team: There is no assurance that the persons referenced herein will continue to be involved with investing for this Fund, or that other persons not identified herein will become involved with investing assets for the Manager or assets of the Fund at any time without notice.

Investment Process: Any description or information regarding investment process or strategies is provided for illustrative purposes only, may not be fully indicative of any present or future investments and may be changed at the discretion of the manager without notice. References to specific investments, strategies or investment vehicles are for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to purchase or sell such investments or to engage in any particular strategy. Portfolio data is expected to change and there is no assurance that the actual portfolio will remain as described herein. There is no assurance that the investments presented will be available in the future at the levels presented, with the same characteristics or be available at all. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and has no bearing upon the ability of Manager to construct the illustrative portfolio and implement its investment strategy or investment objective.

In the event that specific funds are mentioned please refer to the relevant minimum disclosure document in order to obtain all the necessary information in regard to that fund.

This presentation is the copyright of Ninety One SA and its contents may not be re-used without Ninety One SA’s prior permission.

GENERIC ADVISOR DISCLAIMER SA ONLY

Update on market and economic developments · 24 SA rand against the US dollar, pound & euro...

Documents

Transcript of Update on market and economic developments · 24 SA rand against the US dollar, pound & euro...