Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction System
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Transcript of Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction System
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Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction
System
Jing Chen, Hua Tian, Gou Deng
National Meteorological Center (NMC), CMA
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Contents
• GEPS System Configuration• GEPS Update• Tigge relative research and use
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T213L31
BGM perturbation method
Con.l Run
IC1+ IC1- IC2+ IC2-
Run all members.
Product processing
SSI+ATOVSObs
EPS Upgraded T213 GEPS System
model T213L31
Horizontal Resolution
0.5625
Vertical Resolution
31
Analysis system 3D SSI+ATOVS
Perturbation method
BGM
Perturbation region
Global
EPS members 15
forecast 10 days
Typhoonrelocation and vortex perturbation
T213 GEPS Configuration
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Integration withModel T213
IC 1IC 2
First Guess 1
12 or 24 hrs
DIFF=FG1-FG2
Filtered DIFFGauss Filter, Remove waves no.>9
MASKRescalingProcess
Perturbation
Analysis
First Guess 2
EP mem1
EP mem2
1~10 days
GetiniconGetinicon.cmdcmd
GetrscalGetrscal..cmdcmd
ModelnModeln..cmdcmd
T213 GEPS Based on-BGM T213 GEPS Based on-BGM System Structure and Flow ChartSystem Structure and Flow Chart
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Global EPS Upgrade Data assimilation from Optimal Interpolation 3DVAR +ATO
VS in 2008T213-EPS ACC (NH 500mb Height)
average for 20080801-20080831
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10valid(day)
AC
C S
core
EPS_mean Control Skill line
ACC (NH 500mb Height)average for 20060601-20060831
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10valid(day)
AC
C S
core
EPS_mean Control Skill line
CMA old EPSCMA upgraded EPS
Control run forecast skill improve from 5 to 6.5 day
Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC)
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New update in 2009 for Global TC ensemble prediction
Old TC EPS : Perturbed TC environmentUpgrade TC EPS : perturbed TC environment + Vortex.
Old TC EPS New TC EPS Difference
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The ensemble products update on the NMC’s webhttp://www.nmc.gov.cn/publish/nwp/eps-t213/probability/precipitation/index.htm
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Tigge relative research and use
• Relative Research– Global EPS system upgrade;
– Typhoon EPS system development;
– Method for bias correction & combination, cluster;
– Numerical model error analysis and NWP Probability;
– Hydrology prediction drived by TIGGE data;
– Method for severe weather potential forecast;
– TIGGE-LAM researches
• Data operational use – Medium-range forecast with TIGGE data;
– CXML typhoon track EPS product;
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Global TC track EPS CXML digital products
CXML ( Cyclone extensible Markup Language):
CMA ECMWF NCEP
JMA KMA UKMO
No.0817, HIGOS (2008)
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Hydrology forecast based on downscaling TIGGE precipitation
TIGGE precipitation in watershed
CMA CMA
ECMWF ECMWF
NCEPNCEP
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Period and flood runoff forecast based on EPS
data
Super EPS flood runoff probability prediction
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