UPDATE IHDP - International Human Dimensions … · focus: urbanisation newsletter of the...

FO CUS:

URBANISATION

N E W S L E T T E R O F T H E I N T E R N A T I O N A L H U M A N D I M E N S I O N S P R O G R A M M E O N G L O B A L E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G EUPDATEIH

DP

03/2002

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I H D P U p d a t e i s p u b l i s h e d b y t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l H u m a n D i m e n s i o n s P r o g r a m m e o n G l o b a l E n v i r o m e n t a l C h a n g e ( I H D P ) , Wa l t e r - F l e x - S t r. 3 , 5 3 1 1 3 B o n n , G e r m a n y, V. i . S . d . P. : E l i s a b e t h D y c k

1 Cities and Global EnvironmentalChange | R. Sanchez-Rodriguez

4 Cities, Water and GlobalEnvironmental Change |C. Cocklin

6 Cities: Are They Good for Health?| B. Caldwell, T. McMichael

8 Sustainability of Asia’s Mega-Cities | S. Dhakal, S. Kaneko,H. Imura

11 The Athens Heat Island |M. Santamouris

12 Masthead

13 A Human Face for Prague’sSuburbs? | L. Kupková

14 Risk and Vulnerability inDeveloping Countries | E. LópezGranados, G. Bocco

15 Unsustainable DesertSettlements in Egypt | A.SaadShalaby

16 Eco-capital and its Services inUrbanisation | Dan Hu

17 International Human DimensionsWorkshop 2002 | M. Thiem,V. Schulz

18 Core Projects:IDGEC SSC Convenes in Bali |S. A. Ebbin

19 National Committees:An Indian Experience |P.S. Ramakrishnan

20 Surviving the Third Millennium |E. Dyck

21 In Brief, Meeting Calendar

22 Publications

23 Onward and UpwardInterview with IHDP Executive Director Jill Jäger

24 Contact addresses

➤ Cities are complex and dynamic systems that reproduce the interactions betweensocio-economic and environmental processes at a local and global scale. It is estimat-

ed that more than half of the world’s population, ca.3.3 billion people, live in urban

areas. More than 90 percent of future population growth will be concentrated in cities

in developing countries and a large percentage of this population will be poor. Cities

are also driving forces in economic growth. The World Bank estimates that in the

developing world, as much as 80 percent of future economic growth will occur in

cities. They are also the locus of a diversity of environmental problems with severe

local and global negative consequences that potentially affect millions of people.

Despite their importance for economic growth, social well-being and the sustain-

ability of present and future generations, cities have not received the level of attention

they require in the study of global environmental change (GEC). Attention has con-

centrated so far mainly on megacities and their role in the emission of greenhouse

gases. Although this is clearly an important topic for the GEC agenda, there are other

relevant issues. Particularly critical is the study of the impacts of GEC on cities, and

medium-sized and small cities must also be included in the research agenda.

The path of urbanisation mentioned above makes these issues critical for the pres-

ent and future well-being of millions of people in developing and developed countries.

The number and extent of recent climate-related natural disasters in cities illustrate

the devastating consequences of some of those impacts. But disasters represent only

CITIES AND GLOBAL

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEChallenges and Opportunities for a Human Dimension Perspective |

BY ROBERTO SANCHEZ-RODRIGUEZ

C O N T E N T S

➤ continued on page 2

some of the topics that need to be addressed. GEC in cities

covers a diverse and broad range of issues. Cities are a major

source for changes in land use and land cover, since they are

major users of energy, natural resources and food. The socio-

economic characteristics and functions of cities are also

affected by climate variability and a diversity of other issues

on the GEC agenda.

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

The biggest challenge for a broader GEC perspective on

cities is the creation of new conceptual frameworks and

methodologies to study these issues. The growing recogni-

tion that disciplinary approaches create only fragmented

perspectives of reality is fostering the creation of multidisci-

plinary and interdisciplinary approaches to the study of the

environment and

society interactions,

including GEC.

Concepts like sus-

tainable develop-

ment have sought to

create multidimen-

sional approaches as

a way to define new

paths for increased

societal well-being

based on the protec-

tion of the environ-

ment and intra- and

inter-generational

equity. Unfor-

tunately, the concept

has not been able to

create those multi-

d i m e n s i o n a l

approaches, and it

has had little attach-

ment to specific

realities that could transform it into concrete policies and

programmes. The study of global environmental issues faces

a similar challenge. Attention should be given not only to

each of the dimensions involved in global environmental

issues and the interactions among them, but also how those

dimensions and their interactions affect concrete social real-

ities at different scales, from the local to the global.

Cities offer a unique set of opportunities to advance the

creation of new conceptual frameworks for GEC research.

Cities have been studied from a diversity of perspectives. The

long tradition of urban studies has produced significant

knowledge about the social, economic, political and envi-

ronmental dimensions of urban issues. Contributions from

the social sciences (urban sociology, urban economics,

urban politics, and urban geography) are significantly larger

than in other topics of the GEC agenda. The study of urban

climate, landscape ecology and engineering provide a differ-

ent set of contributions from other disciplines. Urban man-

agement and planning have added practical approaches to

the management of physical aspects of urban growth.

Missing so far is the integration of these dimensions. Despite

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urbanisation

Uncontrolled urban growth frequentlyhappens in risk prone areas.

This issue of UPDATE focusses on the topic of urbanisa-

tion. The articles provide clear evidence of the wide

range of human dimensions issues raised by considera-

tion of human-environment interactions in relation to

cities. Over the past two years, the IHDP Scientific

Committee (SC) has debated whether more emphasis

should be placed on the topic of urbanisation within

IHDP. The topic is already taken up by the IHDP core

projects and is entering the agendas of the joint projects.

However, in view of the expected rate of urbanisation

and the challenges it poses for sustainable development,

perhaps the topic deserves even more attention by the

human dimensions research community. The SC sug-

gested that a »scoping activity« should be carried out

and be discussed at the SC meeting in 2003. Part of that

scoping activity was the International Human

Dimensions Workshop (IHDW) held in Königswinter,

near Bonn, in June 2002. This issue of UPDATE includes

articles by the organisers, speakers and participants of

that workshop, as well as other scholars addressing

important areas of research related to urbanisation. I

would encourage all of our readers who are interested in

pursuing these issues further to look at the website of

the workshop (www.ihdw2002.de), which will be

updated with the papers of the participants when they

are available.

The capacity building activities of IHDP have been very

important. We are proud that participants from the

1998 and 2000 workshops were accepted for sessions at

the Open Meetings of the Human Dimensions Research

Community and look forward to welcoming partici-

pants from all of the workshops at the Open Meeting to

be held October 14 – 16, 2003 in Montreal, Canada. A

further success with respect to capacity building is

reflected in the reports produced through our »Seed

Grant Initiative«, indicating »Who is Doing What?« in

human dimensions research in developing countries and

countries with economies in transition. The first volume

of reports was published in 2001; a second volume is

now in press (see the IHDP website for further details).

My term as Executive Director IHDP will soon come to an

end. I will leave the Secretariat after more than three

years of very hard work secure in the knowledge that the

financial basis of the Secretariat is stable (but not rosy),

that the Secretariat staff is doing a great job of initiating

and co-ordinating research, providing an essential con-

tribution for capacity building and a node for networks

of human dimensions researchers. The IHDP website

and newsletter have become major elements in our com-

munications activities. Without the incredible support

of all of the Secretariat staff, IHDP would not have

made such enormous progress.

Thanks and Goodbye,

JILL JÄGER

IHDP Executive Director

E D I T O R I A L

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the achievements mentioned above, urban

studies have created fragmented perspectives

of complex realities. Efforts to create an inte-

grated perspective under urban planning

have been reduced to technical approaches

focusing solely on the physical aspects of

urban growth.

The study of GEC can take advantage of a

broad base of disciplinary knowledge that

facilitates the creation of new interdiscipli-

nary and multidisciplinary perspectives.

Particularly critical is a better understanding

of the interactions among the social, eco-

nomic, political and environmental dimen-

sions. In the case of cities, these interactions

take place in a small territory, and they are

rapidly influenced or impacted by national,

regional and global social and environmental

processes. Efforts in this direction, such as the integrated

assessment approach, are likely to make significant contribu-

tions in the near future. However, it is also worth consider-

ing contributions from other approaches.

Suitable for the study of GEC in cities is the concept of

vulnerability. Contributions in this direction focus on social

processes and historical social relations in an effort to under-

stand the underlying causes of vulnerability (1,2,3,4). Under

this approach, vulnerability has two principal components:

an external source of stress or shock and an internal compo-

nent addressing the social relationships that shape an indi-

vidual’s or group’s exposure and capacity to respond to and

cope with the damaging consequences of the external stress.

The »vulnerability approach« creates a multidimensional

framework that pays attention to the economic, social, envi-

ronmental dimensions, as well as the interactions among

them. The analysis incorporates the interactions among

these dimensions at different scales, from the local to the

global. The external stress is often associated with the envi-

ronment, e.g., extreme events related to climate variability

and climate change. The internal component illustrates the

range of social processes that contribute to understanding

the consequences of environmental change for diverse social

groups and individuals.

The study of GEC in cities also offers opportunities to

bridge between scientific research and decision-making.

These opportunities are created by the array of internation-

al initiatives designed to support improvements in urban

management. These initiatives create close links with local

decision-makers, and they are dedicated to sharing and

applying the lessons learned from innovative practice. For

example, the UN Center for Human Settlements (Habitat)

sponsors a global network of capacity building organizations

seeking to build awareness of proven solutions and demon-

strates experience and innovative strategies for policy and

decision-making at all levels. Habitat’s programme includes

a series of components that provide guidance to local and

national decision makers (Habitat’s agenda, Agenda 21, State

of the World’s Cities Report, Urban Indicators Program, and

Global Urban Observatory, the Best Practices and

Leadership Program). It also monitors global trends in sus-

tainable urban development and evaluates progress in the

implementation of the Habitat Agenda and Agenda 21. An

analysis of the content of these programmes shows an array

of information useful for improvements in urban manage-

ment but with little attention or reference to GEC.

Incorporating research results of GEC into these pro-

grammes provides a unique opportunity to link scientific

research with stakeholders as end users of this knowledge.

These programmes work through a decentralised network of

partners including government agencies, local authorities,

civic organisations, professional organisations and academic

institutions. The World Association of Cities and Local

Authorities, the International Union of Local Authorities

and other parallel international efforts offer similar oppor-

tunities.

Cities offer the unique opportunity of reaching out to a

large number of local and national officials and other stake-

holders making decisions that affect or are affected by GEC.

This linkage is critical in transforming scientific results of

GEC research into goals, policies, programmes and actions.

It might also prove important for the success of the develop-

ment of the new Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) of

the international global environmental change programmes

(IGBP, IHDP, WCRP and DIVERSITAS) seeking to create an

integrated perspective of GEC. But most important, it cre-

ates new opportunities for sustainability for the present and

future generations.

REFERENCES to this article are included on the IHDP

website at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm

ROBERTO SANCHEZ-RODRIGUEZ is a Professor at the

Department of Environmental Studies, University of

California, Santa Cruz, USA; he is a member of the IHDP

Scientific Committee and was the scientific leader of the

International Human Dimensions Workshop 2002;

[email protected]; www.ucsd.edu

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urbanisation

Urbanisation in developing countries is a mosaic of contrastsbetween the rich and poor, the legal and illegal.

➤

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➤ The relationship between cities and water is at once vitaland at the same time uneasy. As a basic necessity of life,

urban dwellers cannot do without drinking water. But water

is also a cleanser, an essential resource for industry, a medi-

um for transportation, a repository for wastes, and a compo-

nent of ecological processes on which life depends. The

uneasiness arises because the relationship between people

and water is in a tenuous state. In the context of an increas-

ing world population and the seemingly inexorable process

of urbanisation, many are predicting a global water crisis.

According to the UNEP Global Environmental Outlook 2000

report, »Water security, like food security, will become a

major national and regional priority in many areas of the

world in the years to come« (p. xxii).

Vulnerability is widely represented in terms of inadequate

supplies of potable water, inadequate sanitation, and expo-

sure to waterborne diseases. Water poses a threat to people

through the hazards of flooding and inundation, and as a

potential contributor to land instability. These material

aspects of water constitute what we refer to as the biophysi-

cal dimension of water-related vulnerability (Fig. 1). The

social dimension arises from the differentiated exposure and

the variable ability to cope with these vulnerabilities.

Differential vulnerabilities exist within cities, between cities

and across nations. The poor have less access to adequate

sanitation and are often forced to live in areas exposed to

high levels of water pollution. Estimates suggest that 20 per-

cent of the world’s population already lacks access to safe

drinking water, and 50 percent of the population do not have

access to adequate sanitation. Contaminated water and

standing water that provides a habitat for mosquitoes pose

serious threats to human health. Children are amongst the

most vulnerable to the health-related effects.

The other element of social vulnerability relates to the

ability to cope. Lack of financial resources, institutional fail-

ures, and inadequate infrastructure that characterise so

many cities in developing countries imply that they are far

less able to deal with water-related problems than cities in

the West. While significant improvements in economic and

material well-being were a corollary of urbanisation in the

West, this has not been the case in developing nations. In

1987, the Brundtland Report, Our Common Future, observed

that cities in the developing world were on the verge of a cri-

sis, due to their inability to supply basic infrastructure and

services, including clean water and sanitation.

Within cities, the disempowerment of the poor severely

curtails their capacity to cope with vulnerabilities associated

with water. The fact that water degradation and scarcity dis-

proportionately affect the world’s poor and underprivileged

has therefore rightly been a recurrent theme in the analysis

of exposure to water-related problems. At a conference of

seven of the world’s poorest nations in June 2000 (the P7

Summit), delegates called for water to be treated as a funda-

mental human right, not as a market commodity.

CITIES, WATER AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEGovernance, water use and infrastructure as a remedy for water issues in cities | BY CHRIS COCKLIN

C I T I E S , W A T E R A N D G E Curbanisation

Fig. 1. Global environmental change and water-related vulnerability

4 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2

Global Environmental

Change• Urbanisation

• Climate change• Economic transformation

• Land use change

Biophysical Vulnerability• Water quality• Water supply

• Water-related natural hazards

Socio-economic Vulnerability• Institutional capacity

• Social capacity• Economic capacity

SensitivityExposure

Coping

The relationship between cities and water connects intri-

cately to global environmental change. Cities are significant

drivers of global change processes (e.g., climate change,

land-use/cover change or changes in the hydrological cycle).

Clearing of forests in the hinterlands of cities can have sig-

nificant effects on hydrological regimes. Soil infiltration

rates and surface and sub-surface flows are affected by the

removal of vegetation. The possible effects include changes

in water supply, increased risk of flooding and land instabil-

ity. Forest clearing in water catchments is believed to pose

threats to human health due to effects on water quality.

Alterations in precipitation patterns are a predicted con-

sequence of human-induced changes in climate. Increased

temperatures will have impacts on the demands for water for

drinking, cooling, and watering. Forecasts show that climate

change will increase the frequency and severity of storms in

some parts of the world, and associated increases in precipi-

tation (intensity, duration and quantity) will exacerbate the

flood risk. Climate change might also have direct effects on

the adequacy of water supply, due to reduced precipitation.

For Australia, the world’s driest inhabited continent, recent

predictions indicate less precipitation in some parts of the

country, which would affect major urban centres. Australian

cities already have one of the highest per capita water storage

levels in the world, yet they still experience shortages during

protracted dry periods. The vulnerability to water shortages

in this highly urbanised society is likely to increase as a con-

sequence of climate change. While this is serious in its own

right, Australians have the economic, infrastructural and

societal capacity to cope. The same cannot be said of many

developing nations, and some will face increasing problems

of water supply as a result of climate change.

What can be done to reduce the water-related vulnerabil-

ity of cities and improve the security of their inhabitants?

Three closely interlinked realms of intervention that hold

the promise of improved human security in relation to water

may provide an answer.

Governance: Important issues include property rights,

the management and control of water (public or private),

institutional arrangements and the degree of integration of

economic, social, environmental and infrastructural plan-

ning. In many jurisdictions water is poorly managed and

administered. In the public sector, responsibilities for water

infrastructure, bulk water supply, supply to users, treatment

and disposal are often divided amongst several agencies.

Privatising water has often led to unhappy results. Property

rights are poorly specified in many cases, leading to conflicts

between cities and their rural hinterlands over entitlements

to water.

At a general level, then: i) institutional structures relating

to water supply and management should be simplified, with

clear responsibilities and a transparency of operations and

processes; ii) the privatisation of water has questionable net

social benefits in any context and is almost certainly inap-

propriate in most developing nations; iii) property rights

associated with water need to be clearly specified; iv) com-

munities should be involved in decisions relating to water; v)

for developing nations, capacity building is required in terms

of governance and planning; vi) development planning

should be integrated and strategic, to ensure that infrastruc-

tural and service needs are commensurate with population

and economic growth, and adequate provision is made for

human health and welfare.

Use: Like many natural resources, water has been used

profligately, because we have assumed it is in abundant sup-

ply. Consequently, much of it is simply wasted or allocated

inappropriately. The straightforward answer is improved

efficiencies in use, re-use, conservation, and allocation to

higher valued uses, but the means to achieve these outcomes

are not as clear. Improved demand management is the cen-

tral issue. In some western nations, economic instruments

have proven effective in moderating demand and shifting

water use away from low-value uses. However, there is an

equity effect when water, a basic necessity, is priced, and so

the moral and ethical legitimacy of pricing as a demand

management tool comes into question. In such situations,

information exchange, community-based approaches, and

prescribed allocations are likely to be more appropriate

interventions.

Infrastructure: Inadequate infrastructure affects the effi-

ciency of water supply and contributes to the risks to human

health and the environment through poor sanitation. The

vulnerability to natural hazards, such as flooding, is partly

determined by the characteristics of urban built infrastruc-

ture. Better transportation and storage of water, improved

technological design (which can be as simple as dual-flush

toilets), upgraded treatment facilities, and better urban

design to minimise risks of inundation are required. In some

contexts, particularly in developed nations, the strategies to

achieve these outcomes are apparent: pricing, planning reg-

ulations, development levies, etc. In the cash-strapped

economies of the developing world, where the vulnerabilities

are greatest, the outcomes are less easily achieved and require

substantial investments of aid money to improve the infra-

structure. It is a sad indictment on our priority-setting that

western nations are seemingly prepared to expend vast,

indeed almost unlimited, amounts of money on armaments

and defence, when a fraction of the same expenditure would

ensure adequate supplies of potable water and sanitation for

the world’s population.

Attention to governance, use and infrastructure would

help to remedy many of the existing issues of water in cities.

At the same time, it would help to mitigate the effects of

global environmental change on water resources in the con-

text of an urbanising world. From a policy perspective, it is

important to bear in mind that there are no universal solu-

tions. What has worked in terms of improved water resource

management in developed nations may not work in the con-

text of cities in developing countries and, indeed, may have

unacceptable moral and ethical repercussions.

CHRIS COCKLIN is Director of the Monash Environment

Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; he is

also a member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the

IHDP Project on Global Environmental Change and

Security (GECHS) and was a lecturer at the IHDW 2002;

[email protected];

www.mei.monash.edu.au/

C I T I E S , W A T E R A N D G E C

I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 5

urbanisation

➤

➤ City living is one of the characteristics of modern life.An increasing proportion of humanity either lives in cities or

lives outside but in societies that are urban focussed. Cities

are not new – the term civilisation itself refers to living in

cities – but the dominance of cities as the major mode of liv-

ing is much more recent. In the developed world urbanisa-

tion is a phenomenon of the 19th and early 20th centuries;

in the developing world it is still incomplete with rapid

urban growth commencing in the late twentieth century and

unlikely to finish before its end. Increasingly, then, the

nature of urban living is critical to human health.

CITIES AND THE BENEFITS OF PUBLIC HEALTH

Historically, cities were associated with exceptionally

poor health: until the late 19th century cities were charac-

terised by death rates that exceeded the generally high birth

rates – urban populations were maintained only by continu-

ous rural-urban migration. The cities were notorious for

overcrowding and poor sanitation, as images of Dickensian

London bring to mind. Infectious disease was rife, with huge

death rates from e.g., pneumonia, tuberculosis and even the

plague. As a result, in the late 19th century cities led the

world in movements to improve public health (1).

The situation changed radically in the 20th century. Cities

in the developed world and, to a lesser extent, in the devel-

oping world became noted for their exceptional public serv-

ices and facilities. They were the places where the best hospi-

tals were to be found, and, in a sharp reversal of the earlier

situation, the safest drinking water, the best sanitation, and,

following slum removal programs, the best housing. As a

result, measures of health including life expectancy are gen-

erally better in urban than rural areas. This has been espe-

cially true in the developing world where cities, despite often

appalling living conditions, have been comparatively privi-

leged islands of good health facilities and other public serv-

ices, surrounded by rural neglect.

FUTURE HEALTH CONCERNS

This situation might seem to suggest that the current on-

going urbanisation will result in improved health, but the

situation is more complex than that. Especially in the devel-

oping world many of the factors that made cities relatively

healthy are diminishing, while their disadvantages in both

the developing and the developed world may be increasing.

Simultaneously, cities may have a longer-term and global

effect on the sustainability of good health.

In part, because of their very growth, cities in the devel-

oping world are losing some aspects of their erstwhile privi-

leged status. Rapid urban growth in developing countries

has led to health and social services being stretched. This is

partly offset by the implementation of the ‘user pays’ princi-

ple, but this aggravates the health problems. Hospitals, once

catering to small urban populations, are now overcrowded

and inadequate. Water and sewerage services once effective-

ly providing for much smaller towns, now provide inade-

quate services for limited parts of large cities, usually the bet-

ter-off areas most able to pay for the services. Illegal settle-

ments, in which many of the poor live, rarely receive any

such services because this is seen as adding to the illegality of

the situation.

With the growth of the cities urban populations have

become much more unequal. Cities no longer consist of a

small, non-rural elite but increasingly of a broad mass of

people attracted by the city. The poor characteristically live

in settlements marked by an unhealthy environment and

overcrowded housing. In the worse situations, those settle-

ments are illegal and receive few if any municipal services

such as water, sanitation, and rubbish collection. Not sur-

prisingly, they are prone to high rates of infectious diseases

such as pneumonia, tuberculosis and diarrhoea.

CHANGING SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR

City life also impacts on health in other ways. In the

cities, traditional controls on social behaviour are lessened

or even absent. This can provide new opportunities for peo-

ple, but it can also lead to dangers. Cities often have high lev-

els of violence. Traditional institutions that protected the

people against crime and violence are weak, while in many

developing cities legal and policing institutions are poorly

developed. In some cities criminal gangs provide young

men, with few skills or contacts, a substitute for family rela-

tions and a way of prospering in an alien environment.

Gender violence is an issue where women are encouraged or

forced out of traditional family roles, but traditional atti-

tudes to women remain unchanged. This is particularly so

where families are in a weak position to protect daughters

from strangers and even from abusive husbands.

Sexual diseases, including HIV/AIDS, often associated

with high levels of commercial sex, are commonly found in

cities. Recorded HIV levels in Eastern and Southern Africa

are typically higher in the towns and cities. Rates of infec-

tious diseases or deaths from infectious diseases have gener-

ally not worsened in the cities, though HIV is increasingly

the exception. Public health measures, such as better immu-

nisation coverage have prevented this, but, arguably, com-

munity health has not improved as much as it should have.

Along with increased urban differentiation, there has been a

shift in many countries towards private medicine. This is

occurring partly for ideological reasons and partly as a result

of the inability of the public health system to meet the costs

required to provide for the increasing demand. It also

reflects a lessening concern among the elite for the health of

the poor. In the past, the elite was more likely to support

public health measures among the urban poor to lessen the

CITIES: ARE THEY GOOD FOR HEALTH?The implications of continuing urbanisation for human well-being | BY BRUCE CALDWELL AND

TONY MCMICHAEL

C I T I E S A N D H E A L T H

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urbanisation

risk of contagion for itself. Now health advances such as bet-

ter immunisation and antibiotics mean that they are less at

risk.

ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION

A problem of cities everywhere is that of chemical pollu-

tion, arising from the concentration of industry and increas-

ing dependence on cars for transport. Cities are not only

major producers of chemical pollution, but, by concentrat-

ing large numbers of people, they increase the number of

people at risk. The pollution that is produced in the cities

and by power stations for cities, adds to the problem. The

fumes include greenhouse gases, which, by adding to global

warming, have major long-term consequences for global

health by extending conditions favourable to the spread of

such diseases as malaria, dengue and diarrhoeal infections

(2).

City populations are associated with an increasing world-

wide ‘epidemic’ of obesity. Urban-dwellers are more likely to

be affluent, have sedentary occupations, and use motorized

transport. Cities lack space for sporting activities, while

offering alternative non-physical recreational activities that

effectively discourage exercise.

DHAKA

The issues concerning cities and health are brought out in

a particularly stark form by Dhaka, the capital of

Bangladesh. Dhaka

is one of the fastest

growing cities in the

world, having

increased from

300,000 inhabitants

some 50 years ago to

around 13 million

today (3). It has been

transformed from a

largely administra-

tive town to a com-

plex metropolis with

a huge socio-eco-

nomic gradient from

a very wealthy elite

to a vast, poor, urban

population, with

many recent rural

migrants. The poor-

est live in squatter

settlements known as bastes (or bosties), with the destitute

living on the streets of the main city as pavement-dwellers.

Those who migrate are economically better off than their

rural counterparts. In health terms the evidence is more

mixed, despite the fact that Bangladesh’s medical and health

facilities and expertise are concentrated in Dhaka. The

under-5-years mortality rates (U5MR), though declining, is

only marginally better in urban Bangladesh (96.7 in 1999-

2000) than in rural Bangladesh (112.6), a differential that is

diminishing (in 1993-1994 U5MR was 114.3 in urban areas

and 153.2 in rural areas). Among the urban poor it is almost

certainly worse. In a recent survey U5MR was estimated to

be 165 in the bosties and 115 in non-bostie slums (4). The

figures are much higher among the extreme poor.

Malnutrition is a problem; a high proportion of the very

poor have been short of food in the recent past. The very

poor live in an impoverished environment, in extremely

poor and overcrowded housing. In the bosties few house-

holds have access to piped water, most having to share wells.

A high proportion of the population relies upon inadequate

sanitation, including open latrines or no latrines at all. In

cases where households do have access to sanitary latrines,

up to 10 households or 50 individuals may share one. Young

children rarely bother to use them; their faeces are collected

and thrown onto rubbish heaps or simply into the open. The

insecurity of tenure in the bosties means that the house-

owners have little incentive to improve matters by building

better facilities.

As a result of these poor environmental conditions, dis-

eases such as pneumonia and diarrhoea remain common

killers of children, and tuberculosis of adults. Although

access to health facilities is better than in rural Bangladesh, it

is not fully utilized. Health services are often not convenient.

Increasingly, the health system is based on private services,

which are expensive and usually located in better-off areas.

Government health services are predominantly in the form

of hospitals, mostly found in the older part of the cities, and

are difficult to attend for many of the poor. Services that are

in theory free usual-

ly involve payment

at least for medicine.

Often families have

to queue for services

– time they can ill

afford away from

work.

Many of the

poor, especially

those who are recent

migrants and with

little schooling,

believe that allo-

pathic (western

medicine) medical

services are not

appropriate to all

medical conditions,

especially those

affecting young chil-

dren for whom traditional health providers are preferred.

Many also complain that allopathic health providers do not

treat them with respect. An additional problem is posed by

the fact that men, who may be working away from home

during critical hours, control family finances, and women

are reluctant to take decisions to seek medical help in their

absence.

Violence is a major problem, especially in the bosties,

with police protection being minimal. Women may be sub-

ject to acid attacks for not accepting a man as a husband, and

abduction is major concern. On top on this, Dhaka suffers


I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 7

urbanisation

Children in the bosties of Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Phot

o:B.

Cald

wel

l

SUSTAINABILITY OF ASIA’S MEGA-CITIES Policies for Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation are the focus of research in co-operation

with IHDP-IT | BY SHOBHAKAR DHAKAL, SHINJI KANEKO AND HIDEFUMI IMURA

from extremely high atmospheric pollution including exces-

sive levels of lead, nitrous oxides and suspended particulate

matter due to poorly maintained motor vehicle engines (5).

CONCLUSION

Whereas cities once were places of disease and death, they

were subsequently the crucibles of the nineteenth century

public health movements, and their populations were the

greatest beneficiaries of advances in knowledge on how to

overcome disease and increase life expectancy. As urbanisa-

tion continues, however, these achievements are coming

under strain, especially in the developing world, where many

cities are struggling to maintain the health facilities and

other public services necessary for good public health. Of

great concern for the future, urbanisation is contributing to

emerging concerns such as obesity and global warming, both

of which have major implications for future human well-

being. While future directions in urban health are inevitably

uncertain, what does happen is of great concern, if simply

because the proportion of the world’s population living in

cities, which was less than 5% in 1800 and is now 47%, is

expected to be nearing 65% by 2030 (6).

REFERENCES to this article are included on the IHDP website

at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm

BRUCE CALDWELL is a Research Fellow at the National

Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian

National University, Canberra, Australia.

[email protected] MCMICHAEL is Director of the National Centre for

Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National

University, Canberra, Australia.

[email protected]; http://nceph.anu.edu.au/


8 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2

urbanisation

SUSTAINABILITY AND MEGA-CITIES

The human-imposed threat to global sustainability has

two fundamental dimensions: population growth and the

ever-increasing per capita demand for goods and services,

particularly material needs and energy. Mega-cities –

defined as exceeding a population of ten millions – are

characterized by a high population density and high mate-

rial demands. They are also »front-runners« in terms of

urban development, economic growth, industrial transfor-

mation, lifestyle changes and policy implementation.

Massive infrastructure developments are underway and

consumerism is spreading. The deteriorating environmen-

tal situation has health and welfare implications for urban

dwellers. In addition, a degradation of natural resources

due to over-consumption of materials and services affect

areas and people outside cities and will have an impact on

future generations. Thus mega-cities and sustainability are

inseparably linked. At the same time, compact settlements

and high population density reduce per capita infrastruc-

ture and distribution costs and open up opportunities for

economic scale effects. Thus mega-cities could facilitate the

implementation of measures to reduce stress on sustain-

ability.

ASIAN MEGA-CITIES ON THE RISE

Rapid urbanisation is a distinctive feature of Asia. For

1990-98, the average annual urban population growth was

estimated at 3% for East Asia, 3.2% for South Asia and 2.1%

for the world average (1). It is estimated that by 2030, 2.6 bil-

lion people will live in Asian cities, representing 53% of the

world’s urban population (2). Predictions for 2015 show a

total of 358 cities worldwide with a population of over a mil-

lion people, of which 153 are expected to be in Asia (3).

From an estimated 27 mega-cities, 15 such cities will be in

Asia. Thus a sustainable management of mega-cities is and will

be a major issue for local as well as national policy-

makers.

THE ENERGY FACTOR

In this context, our research work, undertaken in co-

operation with the IHDP Industrial Transformation

Project, addresses energy consumption and greenhouse gas

(GHG) emissions in Beijing, Seoul, Shanghai and Tokyo for

the years 2001-2004, and makes projections for different

scenarios, identifying major drivers and locally operational

policies and strategies. The research also includes emissions

embedded in materials and services consumed in mega-

cities.

GHG Emissions from Energy Use – Beijing, Seoul,Shanghai and Tokyo: From 1970-1998, CO2 emissions from

energy use have increased more than two-fold in Tokyo, with

a growth rate of 2.5% per year. During the same time, the

annual average growth rate of the local economy (gross

regional product) was 6.87 %. For 1990-1998, annual aver-

age growth rates of CO2 emissions for Tokyo and Seoul are

estimated at 1.7% and 1.63%, respectively.

In Tokyo, most emissions result from commercial activi-

ties and transportation, with oil and electricity being the

main sources of CO2 emissions. Despite a slowing of eco-

nomic growth in the1990s, emissions from sectors such as

households, urban transportation and commercial activities

continued to increase. Only CO2 emissions from the indus-

trial sector decreased gradually, from 34% in 1970 to 10% in

1998.

➤

➤

Households are still the main

source of emissions in Seoul, while

commercial activities cause the

least. The economic crisis that

gripped South Korea in 1997 had

an evident influence on this situa-

tion. Oil contributes to nearly 60%

of the total CO2 emissions due to

its dominant use in buildings and

urban transportation and also

because, unlike Tokyo, most of the

big buildings in Seoul use oil-based

central heating systems.

In Beijing, the industry sector

contributes nearly 60% of the total

emissions, followed by households

(14%). Urban transportation con-

tributes only about 6%. Shanghai’s

situation is similar to Beijing, with

industry contributing over 70%

and urban transportation about

9%. The emission volumes of

Beijing, Shanghai and Seoul are

1.3, 1.7 and 0.7 times higher than

the Tokyo value (Fig. 1). Economic

activity was the major driving force

behind the changes in CO2 emis-

sions in Seoul during economic

growth and recession periods (4).

In terms of CO2 emissions per unit

gross regional product and CO2

emissions per capita, Tokyo’s per-

formance is outstanding in comparison to Seoul, Beijing,

Shanghai, major Japanese cities, national figures of OECD

countries and major non-OECD countries (5).

ENERGY-GHG MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES

Energy efficiency, frequency and use patterns of devices

and appliances, fuel choice, fuel quality, and industrial pro-

ductivity are major factors that govern energy demand and

GHG emissions. Mega-cities have a limited scope to modify

land-use patterns to achieve maximum efficiency. The major

issue is how to reduce energy demand and GHG emissions

while maintaining the urban population’s living standards.

In Tokyo, population growth is more or less stabilized,

but per capita energy consumption is increasing. Major

opportunities for policy interventions are in the road trans-

portation and household sectors. Fuel switching and

enhancing industrial manufacturing processes may play a

minor role in reducing GHG emissions. Reductions will

require changes in lifestyle and consumer behavior. In Seoul,

fuel switching in industries and buildings has contributed

significantly to reducing GHG emissions in the last decade.

Unlike Tokyo, Seoul uses central heating systems in build-

ings. The potentials for improving energy efficiency and fuel

switching are high. Road transportation and private cars are

another area of concern in Seoul.

For Beijing and Shanghai, industry, buildings and urban

transportation are sectors with a great potential for inter-

ventions to reduce GHG emissions. In both cities, fuel

switching in industries is a viable option. Building insula-

tion, efficiency improvement of electric appliances and fuel

switching for central heating systems can also play an impor-

tant role. Fuel switching would contribute to significantly

reducing local pollutants. In Shanghai, car-limiting policies

have been successful so far; this city has adopted the

Singapore style of auctioning registration permits for new

vehicles. GHG emissions from urban transportation may

seem low at the moment for both Beijing and Shanghai.

However, massive investments in the transport systems are

planned for the coming years. Compared to other mega-

cities, private cars are relatively little used now, but Shanghai

and Beijing already suffer from serious air pollution from

the transport sector. China’s growing economy and WTO

membership is likely to increase incomes and reduce tariffs

for automobiles. Thus, urban planners in Beijing and

Shanghai are already projecting a 3 to 4-fold increase of cars

and trucks by 2020.

Reducing indirect energy consumption and GHG emis-

sions is another challenge. As mega-cities consume huge

amounts of materials and goods, this has implications for

manufacturing and resource-extraction sites outside cities.

Cities should be judged by their »environmental load«, also

taking into account indirect emissions. The indirect energy

consumption of Tokyo (1995) and Shanghai (1992) is almost

three times and two times higher than their direct energy

A S I A ’ S M E G A - C I T I E S

I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 9

urbanisation

ELECTRICITY FUEL MIX (1998)Beijing / Shanghai: Almost all coal

Japan national average: Coal 19.5%, Oil 16.5%, Gas 21%, Nuclear 32%, Others 11%

Korea: Coal 42%, Oil 7%, Gas 11%, Nuclear 37.5%, Others 2.5%

Fig. 1. Total CO2 emissions from energy use, 1998

consumption. In Beijing, direct and indirect energy con-

sumption are estimated to be equal. Since energy consump-

tion is the proxy to GHG emissions, the »environmental

load« that Tokyo exerts on other places is significantly high-

er than its direct emissions.

COUNTERMEASURES AND ROLE OF POLICY MAKERS

Transportation and infrastructure: Potential counter-

measures in the transportation sector include a switch to

alternative fuels (e.g., compressed natural gas – CNG); pro-

moting electric and hybrid vehicles; increasing average vehi-

cle speed through traffic management; increasing the fuel

efficiency of cars and improving fuel quality; improving

public mass transportation systems and limiting private cars;

and appropriate land-use planning. These measures should

contribute to reducing travel demand, trip length and fre-

quency. In Beijing, light duty gasoline trucks and cars are

expected to become a key component in future reductions of

energy demand and GHG emissions. Car-limiting policies

for new vehicles alone would not be sufficient in Beijing and

Shanghai. Efficient public mass transportation systems are

inevitable for these cities. It is difficult to implement car-

limiting policies in Tokyo and Seoul. In terms of fuel effi-

ciency, fuel quality and the end-of-pipe technology at the

vehicle tailpipe, there is a limited scope for further drastic

improvement in Tokyo and Seoul. The most promising way

is to implement policies that motivate people to change their

lifestyle (such as driving behaviour), and introduction of

hybrid and electric vehicles in conjunction with other tradi-

tional measures.

Beijing and Shanghai are in the process of reconstructing

their infrastructure massively. Once this is done, the cities

will be »locked in« to these infrastructures. At this early

stage, policy makers should consider energy demand and

emissions while constructing infrastructures and trying to

reduce automobile dependency. Mass trans-

portation strategies may look financially

demanding, but are worth pursuing. Efficient

infrastructure is possible with joint cost shar-

ing between the government and the citizens.

Building sector: Prospects for implement-

ing countermeasures in the building sector

are enormous and include improvements in

building insulation, appliance efficiency, and

efficient central heating and cooling systems.

Building insulation is important but largely

not taken seriously by policy makers. In

mega-cities such as Shanghai rapid income

increases during the past decade resulted in

intensive use of heating and cooling devices

and other electric appliances, but building

insulation could not match this pace.

Efficient central heating and cooling systems

for buildings through technology improve-

ment and fuel switching are a key to energy

issues. Simple measures such as changing

from incandescent to fluorescent lamps can

save huge amounts of energy. Building codes,

laws, and standards can also promote appli-

ance and building energy efficiency. The

scope for improvements in appliance efficien-

cy may be less in Seoul and Tokyo than in

Beijing and Shanghai. Using renewable ener-

gy such as solar panels for hot water produc-

tion, appropriate thermostat settings for

heating and cooling systems, and avoiding waste of electric-

ity are key to saving energy.

Drastic changes in construction materials and techniques

are required to make buildings and infrastructure sustain-

able. Improvements in technology, urban management and

life-style changes are key to a sustainable development in

mega-cities.



SHOBHAKAR DHAKAL is a researcher at the Institute for

Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan;

[email protected]; www.iges.or.jpSHINJI KANEKO is Associate Professor, Graduate School for

International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima

University, Japan; [email protected];

www.hiroshima-u.ac.jpHIDEFUMI IMURA is Professor at the Graduate School of

Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Japan; he is a

member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the IHDP

Project on Industrial Transformation

(www.vu.nl/ivm/research/ihdp-it/)[email protected]; www.genv.nagoya-u.ac.jp

A S I A ’ S M E G A - C I T I E S

1 0 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2

urbanisation

Fig. 2. CO2 emissions per capita versus per unit gross regional product

(log scale)

➤

➤

➤ From the climatologist’s point of view, »human historyis defined as the history of urbanisation«. Today, at least 170

cities support more than one million inhabitants. Estimates

suggest that urban populations will represent 80 percent of

the total world population by 2100. In recent years, industri-

alisation and urbanisation have led to a dramatic increase in

the number of urban buildings, which had major effects on

the energy consumption in this sector.

Urban areas without a good climate quality use more

energy for air conditioning in summer and more electricity

for lighting. The urban population suffers under high tem-

peratures; wind tunnel effects in streets and

unusual wind turbulence due to inadequately

designed high-rise buildings are very common

(1). Thus, it has become increasingly important

to study the urban climatic environment and

apply the knowledge gained to improve people’s

environment in cities. This article presents the

main features and results of a large-scale experi-

ment undertaken in Athens within the frame-

work of the POLIS research programme of the

European Commission (EC). The aim of the

experiment was to investigate main parameters

related to urban layout, climatic characteristics

and energy consumption of buildings in Athens.

EXPERIMENT AND RESULTS

Within the framework of the EC’s POLIS

research project 35 temperature stations were

installed in the main Athens region in June 1996,

where the ambient temperature was measured

on an hourly basis. High temperature differences

between the urban and reference stations were

recorded during the summer. During daytime,

temperatures differed up to 14o C; this difference

was particularly evident between a station in a

high traffic area and the reference station. We noticed that

the higher the temperature was in the urban station, the

higher the temperature difference. This was mainly due to

the thermal balance in the urban region where traffic adds to

the heat inputs and increases local temperatures – which

does not occur in the surrounding suburban reference

region.

As a function of urban layout, traffic load, anthropogenic

heat and the overall balance of each study area, temperature

differences during the daytime varied from 0o to 14o C, with

a mean temperature difference of 7-8o C. In the national park

(Station: kip), located in the very centre of Athens, lower

temperature differences were recorded; a main pedestrian

street showed the lowest differences (Station: erm).

In general, during the daytime the city centre is charac-

terized by much higher temperatures than the surrounding

area. Fig. 1 illustrates the spatial temperature distribution in

the central Athens area during noontime on 1 August 1996.

As shown, the central Athens area is to about 7-8o C warmer

than the surrounding area, while at the station of

Ippokratous, located in a high traffic area, the temperature

difference was about 12-13o C. A better understanding of the

persistence of high temperature differences during the day-

time is given if the cooling degree hours are calculated. We

found that cooling degree-days at the surrounding Athens

area were close to 107, while the corresponding value for the

central area was 355.

During night periods, the central Athens region is about

3o C warmer than the reference suburban stations, but

differences up to 5o C were recorded at many stations. The

western part of Athens is characterised by high building den-

sity, lack of green spaces and heavy traffic; temperatures

there were 3-4o C higher than at the reference station.

Cooling degree hours in the western part of Athens varied

between 85 and 104, while the centre had 65-85 such hours

and the Eastern, reference, part of Athens had 26.

ENERGY IMPACT

It is well accepted that urbanisation leads to a very high

increase in energy use. A recent analysis (2) showed that a

THE ATHENS HEAT ISLAND A large-scale, EC-funded experiment investigates links between urbanisation, climate and energy con-

sumption in Athens, Greece | BY MATTHAIOS SANTAMOURIS

T H E A T H E N S H E A T I S L A N D

I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 1 1

urbanisation

Fig. 1. Temperature distribution in the central Athens area at12:00 h on 1 August 1996.

one percent increase in the per capita GNP causes an almost

equal increase in energy consumption, i.e. by a factor of 1.03.

However, if the urban population grows by 1 percent, the

energy consumption increases by 2.2 percent, which means

that the rate of change in energy use is twice the rate of

change in urbanisation. These data clearly show the impact

of urbanisation on energy use.

Increased urban temperatures have a direct effect on

the energy consumption of buildings during the summer

period, as higher temperatures contribute to more elec-

tricity demand for cooling. The spatial variation of the

monthly cooling load of a reference building in Athens,

calculated by using hourly temperature data that were

measured at stations installed in and

around the city, are discussed below.

Using hourly data of the ambient

temperature collected, simulations of

the cooling load of the reference build-

ing were performed for August 1996.

All other operational data, like internal

gains, were selected to correspond

exactly to the measured conditions.

Calculations were performed for three

temperature bases, i.e. 26, 27 and

28o C. The values were expressed in

kWh per square meter and month. An

indicative spatial variation of the cool-

ing load of the reference building for a

26o C set point temperature is given in

Fig. 2. It shows that the cooling load at

the city centre is about twice that of

the surrounding Athens region. For a

set point temperature of 26o C, the cal-

culated maximum and minimum cool-

ing load was close to 14.2 and 7.4 kWh

per square meter. The corresponding

maximum values for 27 and 28o C set

points amounted to 12.9 and 11.5 kWh

per square meter, while the minimum

values were 6.1 and 5.1 kWh per square

meter respectively.

The maximum cooling load was always compared to the

very central area of Athens and especially to a station close to

a road with high traffic. For the south-eastern Athens region,

a residential area with an average population density and

close to the Hemetus forest, we calculated minimum values.

Much higher cooling loads were calculated for the Western

Athens region. This area is characterised by high-density

plots, lack of green spaces, industrial activity and higher traf-

fic than the Eastern Athens region.

CONCLUSIONS

An extensive experimental project was carried out to

investigate the temperature distribution in the main urban

area of Athens. Thirty-five stations were installed and the

recorded data were analysed. A significant temperature

increase was recorded in the central Athens area. Energy

analyses indicated that temperature increase has a very

important impact on the energy consumption of buildings

for cooling purposes.

Acknowledgment: The research was financed by the

Directorate General for Science, Research and Development

of the European Commission within the framework of the

POLIS research project.



MATTHAIOS SANTAMOURIS is a researcher at the Section of

Applied Physics, Department of Physics of the University of

Athens, Greece; he was a lecturer at the IHDW 2002;

[email protected]; www.uoa.gr

T H E A T H E N S H E A T I S L A N D

1 2 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2

urbanisation

Fig. 2. Iso – Cooling load lines for the reference building in Athensand for a set point temperature of 26o C (August1996).

➤ The IHDP UPDATE newsletter features the activities of theInternational Human Dimensions Programme on GlobalEnvironmental Change and its research community.

UPDATE is prepared by the IHDP Secretariat Walter-Flex-Strasse 353113 Bonn, Germany.

EDITOR: Elisabeth Dyck, IHDP; [email protected]

DESIGN & LAYOUT: Serap Lannert, Bonn, Germany;[email protected]

PRINTED BY: Köllen Druck+Verlag GmbH, Bonn, Germany

UPDATE is published four times per year. Sections of UPDATE

may be reproduced with acknowledgement to IHDP. Please senda copy of any reproduced material to the IHDP Secretariat.

The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarilyrepresent the position of IHDP or its sponsoring organisations.

➤

➤

➤ Since the beginning of the economic tran-sition in the Czech Republic in the early 1990s,

problems of suburban land use and change

have become increasingly evident. Before the

»Velvet Revolution« in 1989, cities expanded

to the surrounding land in a very limited fash-

ion, due to many factors that characterised the

socialist system. As there was no market econ-

omy, a market for land and private property

did not exist; efforts to reduce regional differ-

ences were high and laws for land preserva-

tion were strict. After 1989, the transition to a

market economy increased activities in the pri-

vate property and residential land markets, in

particular in commercial, industrial and infra-

structural use of land.

Based on first results of a project by the

Charles University on »Changes in the landscape

in Prague’s suburban area in the periods before

and during transformation«, and supported by

the Czech Grant Agency, we make some prelim-

inary observations about suburbanisation in

Prague. Fig. 1a shows the development of built-

up areas during the period 1990-2000 which

increased in the majority of cadastres.

Interestingly, we found a few cadastres in the suburbs of

Prague, where built-up areas decreased by more than 5 per-

cent. Other analyses based on satellite data show that there

were no intensive pressures on the landscape (such as a frag-

mentation or forest decline) in the entire study area during

the above mentioned period. The increase of built-up areas

corresponds with an increase in population (compare Fig.1a

and 1b). In some parts, residential suburbanisation prevailed.

Spatial relationships will be examined in the next stages of

the project and will be based on methods of spatial statistics.

A very simple data source, i.e. photos, allows us to illus-

trate some specific features of housing. During the socialist

period, extensive blocks of »panel flats« were built, with no

privacy and appropriate services for their inhabitants, with

no green areas around them or playgrounds for children

(Fig. 2). However, is it any

better to build satellite towns

such as shown in Fig. 3? These

are new residential areas in

villages near the capital, built

after 1989 on green meadows

– again without appropriate

services. Their aesthetic value

is controversial. Like in blocks

of flats, the inhabitants do not

have enough privacy. In addi-

tion, some of the building companies

went bankrupt, which left many hous-

es unfinished in some areas. People

here are forced to live in an environ-

ment of unfinished brick structures

that slowly deteriorate with weather

and time. As people commute on a

daily basis between the satellite

towns and the city centre, this causes

traffic jams, requires new roads and

adds to the problem of landscape

fragmentation. An adequate traffic

system has not yet been designed. At

present, the construction of a perimeter

highway in the Northwestern part

of Prague is under discussion. At

the border of the city, huge shop-

ping centres have been set up and

represent another feature of sub-

urbanisation that copies US and

West-European lifestyle. For many

people spending time on the week-

end in these shopping centres has

become a new leisure activity.

A few examples of the old and

new »face« of Prague’s suburbs were discussed here. We are

still at the beginning of a new period of suburbanisation and

should be able to learn from the experience of other major

cities, avoid their mistakes in urban development and give

suburbanisation a »human face«.

Acknowledgement: This contribution is an output of

Research Project No. 205/02/P093 of the Czech Grant

Agency and of Research Project No. VZ 23-313007 of the

Ministry of Education of the Czech Republic.

LUCIE KUPKOVÁ is a Research Assistant at the GIS

Laboratory, Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of

Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic;

[email protected]; www.natur.cuni.cz/

T H E S U B U R B S O F P R A G U Eyoung scientist research

Fig. 2 and 3. Footprints of socialism (left), footprints of a new capitalism (right) – block ofpanel houses versus satellite towns. What is better/worse?

Fig. 1b. Population development1991-1999 (year 1991 = 100%)

A HUMAN FACE FOR PRAGUE’S SUBURBS?A research project at Charles University evaluates human and biophysical dimensions of Prague’s sub-

urbanisation and its consequences | BY LUCIE KUPKOVÁ, PARTICIPANT IN THE INTERNATIONAL HUMAN

DIMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002

Phot

os:L

.Kup

ková

I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 1 3

Fig. 1a. The development ofbuilt-up areas 1990-2000

(year 1990 = 100%)➤

➤ Intensive use of natural resources calls for increasinglydetailed inventories of its components and an investigation

of the changes that took place in the past. This is particular-

ly important in areas undergoing fast, unplanned changes,

such as urban settlements in developing countries. Land-

cover and land-use (LCLU) change analysis and projection

provide a tool to assess ecosystem change and its environ-

mental implications at various temporal and spatial scales.

Despite their relevance, quantitative data describing where,

when and how change occurs are incomplete or inexact.

Thus, research on this subject is important in order to

understand patterns of LCLU change as well as their social

and environmental implications at different spatial and tem-

poral scales.

We have researched LCLU change patterns in the water-

shed of Cuitzeo, the second largest lake in Mexico, covering

an area of ca. 4,000 km2 and located in the Trans-Mexican

Volcanic Belt. The dominant climate is temperate with sea-

sonal rainfall in summer and an average temperature of

15° C. The average annual precipitation is around 1,000 mm.

Soils and landforms are of Quaternary volcanic origin.

To quantify patterns of LCLU change, land-cover was

interpreted on black and white panchromatic aerial photog-

raphy. The approximate scale was 1:50,000 for 1975 (161

images) and 1:37,000 for 2000 (283 images). In addition,

1:50,000 basic and thematic cartography was used to

describe relevant physical characteristics of the study area.

The analysis of LCLU changes specifically considered popu-

lation and human settlement growth, which increased sig-

nificantly. 385 localities (380,787 inhabitants) were regis-

tered in 1975; in 1995, the number was 509 (837,775 inhab-

itants). The study area is characterised by a population

migration to the capital of the state, the capital of the coun-

try and to the USA. Rain-fed fields are increasingly aban-

doned and are now covered by shrub land or forests.

According to census data, urban settlements are those

with over 2,500 inhabitants; 25 such settlements exist in the

Cuitzeo watershed. In 1975 urban settlements occupied an

area of 3,141 ha, increasing to 10,939 ha by 2000. At the same

time, population density decreased in these urban settle-

ments. In two cities, the population has declined due to emi-

gration, but the cities continue growing in area. People

working outside the country send money to their families in

the region to build houses that they will occupy when

returning to Mexico.

There are other urban problems in the watershed. So far,

a vulnerability analysis has not been undertaken. During my

participation in the IHDW, I learned about the application

criteria to carry out a risk and vulnerability analysis (floods,

earthquakes, landslides) in urban settlements. Remote

sensing and GIS technology are useful to delineate land

cover, land use, geo-forms, rocks and soils and help to model

risk scenarios and vulnerability of the society.

The main urban area in the watershed is Morelia, a city

that expanded from 709 ha in 1960 to 3,368 ha in 1990.

Other urban settlements were incorporated into Morelia, a

process very common to fast growing urban settlements that

lack adequate planning. Forty-six percent of the urban area

is now located on the alluvial plain, occupying former agri-

cultural land of prime quality. Urbanisation expanded also

to slopes surrounding the city, some of them

affected by landslides and rock-fall. This has

increased the vulnerability to geologic risks, a

fact that is not easily accepted by local authori-

ties. Therefore it is necessary to carry out an

interdisciplinary study to identify the natural

risks and vulnerability of each human settlement

in the basin. This study must also involve deci-

sion-makers to influence urban planning in this

area.

ERNA LÓPEZ GRANADOS is a PhD candidate at

the Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional

Autonoma de Mexico, Campus Morelia,

Michoacán, México; [email protected];

http://geoecologia.oikos.unam.mx

GERARDO BOCCO is a researcher at the Instituto

de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autonoma

de Mexico, Campus Morelia, Michoacán, and

with the National Institute for Ecology, Mexico

[email protected]

RISK AND VULNERABILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES A case study of Morelia City, Mexico, evaluates risk and vulnerability | BY ERNA LÓPEZ GRANADOS,

PARTICIPANT IN THE INTERNATIONAL HUMAN DIMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002, AND GERARDO BOCCO

A M E X I C A N C A S E S T U D Yyoung scientist research

Fig. 1. A vulnerability and risk analysis of Morelia City, Mexico.

1 4 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2

➤

➤

Geographic Information System

Bio

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ysica

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ta

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form

atio

nS

ocia

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ta

Morelia City | Vulnerability

Seismic activity

EarthquakesFracturesFaults

Geological andgeomorphologicalinformation

Hydrometerological processes

Landslides

Geomorphological processes

Hydrometerologicaldata and geomorpho-logical and land cover /use information

FloodsDroughts

VulnerabilityAnalysis and modelling

Population Density Margination

➤ This article aims to locate my current studies within thecontext of the IHDW 2002. It first discusses the current

urban product of Egyptian desert settlements and its nega-

tive impact on humans and the environment. Then, it pres-

ents a conceptual framework for the process behind the

development of this product and briefly highlights my cur-

rent research focus. Finally, it explores potential avenues for

future research inspired by the Workshop.

THE URBAN PRODUCT

It is widely agreed that the spatial strategies adopted by

the Egyptian government in recently developed new desert

settlements are not environmentally sustainable (1). The

new settlements have detached, spread-out housing blocks

that heat up under intensive solar radiation or consume

excessive quantities of energy for cooling. They have wide

grid networks of streets that serve as good channels for hot

dusty winds. They require high use of cars that potentially

emit an excessive amount of pollutants and heat. They

impact on a lot of land and disturb the fragile ecosystem.

These modern settlements ignore the design principles of

Egypt’s traditional settlements, developed over many centuries.

These traditional settlements have low-rise buildings with

small inner courtyards that provide good ambient conditions.

They have narrow winding streets that minimise heat gain and

loss and escape the hot sand-laden winds. They are compact

and small in size, integrate under- with above- ground spaces,

and hence have a minimal impact on the environment. Based

on these traditional desert settlements, I have developed a

model of environmentally adaptive urban design principles

towards establishing sustainable desert settlements (2).

THE PROCESS

Ignoring these principles is not primarily a technical prob-

lem. Securing a better urban product depends upon a critical

examination of the urban development process (3), defined as

the decision-making process and mechanisms that lead to the

production of the urban form. When comparing contempo-

rary and traditional development processes a significant differ-

ence was found. While the contemporary process is top-down

with virtually no role for residents and a rigid set of Western

regulations, the traditional process was bottom-up with mini-

mal state intervention and a proscriptive rather than prescrip-

tive code of laws (i.e. a code which only states what not to do).

An answer to why the current urban development process

and product have taken this shape lies in the political, social,

cultural, economic, environmental and technological forces.

These forces, which operate at different scales, shape a com-

plex societal process that stands behind the current urban

practices. In order to understand the current urban product,

we have to develop an understanding of the nature of this

complex process. This is a major task; in my current research

only a first step towards this goal is attempted by focusing on

‘planning education’ as one force that contributes to the cur-

rent urban practices.

FUTURE RESEARCH

Inspired by the many ideas discussed at the IHDW,

potential avenues for future research on the product level

include (i) quantifying the negative impact of the current

built environment through studying the Heat Island Effect

in one of the new desert settlements, and associated health

hazards and environmental problems; (ii) quantifying the

positive role of traditional built environments in reducing

negative environmental impacts; and (iii) investigating how

vegetation and water elements could be used efficiently in a

desert environment with limited resources.

On the process level, research proposals include (i) mon-

itoring the change from the traditional development process

to the current one, and examining how different forces con-

tribute to this change over time; (ii) investigating on a glob-

al/national scale the contribution of the governance system

to the current built environment, as one important force in

the Egyptian context; and (iii) investigating how the envi-

ronment is perceived, or socially constructed, by the govern-

ment, professionals and other stakeholders.



ABOUL-FETOUH SAAD SHALABY is a Teaching Assistant at

the Faculty of Urban and Regional Planning, Cairo

University, Egypt (on leave) and a PhD student at the

Department of City and Regional Planning, Cardiff

University in Wales, UK. [email protected];

www.cardiff.ac.uk

UNSUSTAINABLE DESERT SETTLEMENTS IN EGYPTProduct, Process and Avenues for Future Research | BY ABOUL-FETOUH SAAD SHALABY, PARTICIPANT IN THE

INTERNATIONAL HUMAN DIMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002

D E S E R T S E T T L E M E N T S I N E G Y P T

I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 1 5

young scientist research

Fig. 1. Simplified diagram: how different societal forces shapethe urban product

➤

➤

➤ China is undergoing a period of rapid urbanisation andindustrialisation. The number of cities increased from 622 in

1994 to 667 in 1999. In 1994, ten cities had a population of

more than 2 million; by 1999 the number was 13. China’s

rate of urbanisation grew from 26.21 percent in 1989 to

30.89 percent in 1999. The complex interactions between

urbanisation and ecosystems have become a major concern

for researchers of different disciplines, decision-makers and

the public. Our recent research has therefore focused on

finding scientific solutions for a sustainable urbanisation

management in China.

THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENT

Taoism, the traditional holistic Chinese philosophy, recog-

nizes that humans and nature interact with each other as one

entity. With this in mind, we derived fifteen ecological princi-

ples of human-nature interactions including principles of

selectability, complementarity, duality, substitutability, adapta-

tion and innovation, symmetry and fluctuation, and cost-bene-

fits (effectiveness), etc. Based on the fundamentals of ecologi-

cal economics and these principles, we developed an integrat-

ed concept of ecosystems capital or eco-capital, which serves as

a starting point for establishing a theoretical framework of

integrating eco-capital into urbanisation (see Fig.1, included

in the Web version of Update). The concept of eco-capital (see

Box) integrates human-related and natural capital that pro-

duces eco-products or services to sustain the survival and

development of humans and ecosystems. Complicated inter-

actions among eco-capital, natural capital, human capital and

man-made (including financial) capital drive urbanisation,

industrialisation and civilisation. Our research focused on the

ecological transformation of urbanisation, industrialisation

and civilisation by building a management mechanism for a

sustainable ecological capital cycle between cities and ecosys-

tems. This requires understanding the temporary and spatial

processes of urban development, exploring the stress-

response mechanisms between urbanisation and eco-capital,

and evaluating the depreciation, appreciation and appropria-

tion of eco-capital at different levels of urbanisation.

METHODOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT

Our study1 was implemented in the Yangtze River Delta

Region (YRDR), the Taihu Lake Basin Region (TLBR) and in

Yangzhou city in East China, rich in wetland eco-capital

stock and one of the highly urbanised areas in the country.

An integrated methodology was developed, using a method

model that included driving forces, stress, vulnerability, sen-

sitivity, state, effects, uncertainty and responses. The research

focused on developing a meta-analysis including an

Integrated Temporary Analysis (ITA) with a life cycle of the

past, present and future, a 3S-based Integrated Spatial

Analysis (ISA) with different spatial scales, an Integrated

Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis (IQA) and an

Integrated Biophysical and Currency Value Analysis (IVA).

RESEARCH PROGRESS

So far, research has been completed on (1) stresses of

urbanisation on eco-capital and its effects and responses,

including ecological effects of urban land use and regional

climate impacts of urbanisation in YRDR; ecological impacts

of urbanisation on water resources, water environment and

their ecological responses in TLBR; climate impact simula-

tion analyses of urban energy consumption in YRDR;

changes in the ecological landscape driven by urbanisation

in Shanghai and its surrounding areas; and environmental

impacts and human responses of urbanisation and industri-

alisation in Jiangyin; (2) an eco-capital value measure method

and appropriation/assessment analysis, including a solar

space value method for measuring eco-capital; an eco-serv-

ices value measure method; an analysis of eco-capital appro-

priation by urbanisation in TLBR; an assessment of water

ecosystem services of urbanisation in Yangzhou; and an eco-

services analysis for urbanisation in Shanghai and Yangzhou;

(3) eco-capital integrated management of urbanisation,

including eco-planning of sustainable urbanisation in the

Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou-Shaoxing region and eco-plan-

ning of sustainable urbanisation in Yangzhou.

Future research will focus on spatial pattern and dynam-

ics of wetland eco-capital and its services, using 3S tech-

niques. Methods for eco-capital value measure and appro-

priation analysis will be improved and developed, and insti-

tutional and cultural dimensions of sustainable eco-capital

management will be studied.

REFERENCES to this article and Fig. 1 are included on the

IHDP website at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm

DAN HU is an Associate Professor at the Research Center for

Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences,

Beijing, P.R.China;

[email protected]; www.cas.ac.cn

ECO-CAPITAL AND ITS SERVICES IN URBANISATION A brief introduction to theory, methods and progress in China | BY DAN HU, PARTICIPANT IN THE

INTERNATIONAL HUMAN DIMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002

E C O - C A P I T A L A N D U R B A N I S A T I O N

1 6 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2

young scientist research

Eco-capital refers to tangible and intangible ecosystem states, forms (structure/pattern)

and functioning/processes produced by human- or biota-environment interactions

within and/or among ecosystems, which serve as inputs for producing other joint

ecosystem products or services.

Examples of eco-capital are hydro-, soil, atmospheric, landscape and agricultural ecosys-

tems and other human-involved or -dominated ecosystems. We define strong eco-capital

with humans as a component and weak eco-capital without humans but with biota as a

component. Social, cultural and economic capital are usually viewed as constituent ele-

ments of eco-capital, depending on the contexts in which the concept is seen.

Eco-assets are the tangible and intangible ecosystem states, forms (structure/pattern) and

functioning/processes produced by human or biota-environment interactions within

and/or among ecosystems, which have the potential for producing types of ecosystem

utility or benefits and usually include human and non-human ecosystems.

Ecosystems or eco-services are the conditions and processes through which natural

ecosystems, and the species that make them up, sustain and fulfill human life (4,1)

1 The National Foundation of Natural Sciences of China supported the

research (grant numbers 40171042 and 3993004).

➤

➤

➤ From 2-15 June 2002,IHDP and START

(Global Change SysTem

for Analysis, Research

and Training) hosted the

third bi-annual Inter-

national Human

Dimensions Workshop

(IHDW) for young sci-

entists in Bonn. Thirty-

two young scholars from

20 countries in Africa,

Asia, Latin America,

and, for the first time,

Eastern Europe and

Russia were selected

from over 160 applicants to come to Bonn and explore the

workshop theme: »Urbanisation and the Transition to

Sustainability«.

The main objective of the workshop was to provide a

comprehensive and integrated perspective on issues related

to Global Environmental Change (GEC) and urban areas.

The workshop encouraged speakers and participants from

different scientific backgrounds to develop an interdiscipli-

nary approach to the workshop theme. Different comple-

mentary components, such as lectures, expert panels and

individual projects formed the basis for the organisational

structure of the workshop. The lectures and panels given by

well-known scholars in the field exposed the participants to

a wide range of topics reflecting the complex and dynamic

range of societal and environmental interactions that take

place in cities, from the local to the global level: natural and

social dimensions of GEC, regional processes of urbanisa-

tion, urban processes, social shaping of urban space, gover-

nance, environmental problems, urban climate, vulnerabili-

ty, and water.

Prior to the workshop the participants had been asked to

select an individual case study from their country on a topic

related to the »Human Dimensions of GEC in Cities« and

bring their own sets of empirical data to Bonn. During the

workshop, the young scholars were able to apply the infor-

mation and knowledge gathered to their individual projects.

The last two days were dedicated to presentations by partic-

ipants. Their talks demonstrated a clear step towards an inte-

grated perspective on human dimensions of GEC, and many

participants expressed a strong desire to expand their

research to include new dimensions.

The successful outcome was due to a framework that

emphasised communication and interaction amongst lec-

turers and participants. All invited lecturers were asked to

allow for extra time for discussions and interaction.

Lecturers advised and commented on the participants’

individual case studies. In addition, two data specialists

from the Columbia University’s Center for International

Earth Science Infor-

mation Network

(CIESIN) and the

Center for Environ-

mental Systems

Research of the Uni-

versity of Kassel,

Germany, were present

during the workshop.

After an introduction

to Geographic Infor-

mation Systems (GIS)

including ArcView®

software, they helped

the participants to

solve individual data

problems and computer questions. Lively discussions dur-

ing the breaks, in the evenings and sometimes even at

night, when participants and lecturers worked together in

the computer room, proved the success of this organisa-

tional framework.

An important result of the workshop is a strong network

established between young and senior scholars working in

the field of GEC and urbanisation. In the meantime, a list

server has been installed to facilitate communication within

the group. IHDP will produce a hard copy report of the

workshop, which will highlight the case studies. Copies will

be available from Maarit

Thiem or at the IHDP web-

site in electronic form. A

website with information on

the workshop’s agenda, par-

ticipants and relevant insti-

tutions can be found at

www.ihdw2002.de.

IHDP would like to thank

Roberto Sanchez-Rodriguez,

who was the scientific leader

of the workshop. His con-

cepts, experience and ideas

helped to set up and carry

out a very successful endeavour. His efforts before and dur-

ing the workshop were invaluable.

We gratefully acknowledge the sponsors of the workshop:

Asia-Pacific Network (APN), German Research Foundation

(DFG), Inter-American Institute for Global Change

Research (IAI), START and the US National Science

Foundation.

MAARIT THIEM, International Science Project Co-ordina-

tor, and VALERIE SCHULZ, Research Assistant, organised the

IHDW 2002 on behalf of the IHDP Secretariat.

[email protected]; [email protected];

www.idhw2002.de

INTERNATIONAL HUMAN DIMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002Urbanisation and the transition to sustainability | BY MAARIT THIEM AND VALERIE SCHULZ

I H D W 2 0 0 2

I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 1 7

urbanisation

➤

IHDW 2002: participants, lecturers and organisers

J. Leitmann (left), lecturer, andRoberto Sanchez-Rodriguez (right),scientific leader of the IHDW 2002.

Phot

o:M

.Thi

em

Phot

o:D.

Mey

er W

efer

ing

➤ From June 1-3, 2002, the IDGEC Scientific SteeringCommittee (SSC) met for the fourth time since the incep-

tion of the project – this time in Bali, Indonesia. Amid the

lush plantings of the Hotel Putri Bali and just a few hundred

feet away from the Bali International Convention Center,

where the WSSD PrepCom was holding its final meeting, the

SSC held lively discussions, charting the course for the

implementation of the IDGEC project.

The SSC welcomed several new mem-

bers and bid goodbye to several old

friends who had served on the SSC for the

past three years. Elena Andreeva (Russia),

Peter Sands (Germany), Angela Cropper

(Trinidad and Tobago), and Yoshiki

Yamagata (Japan) left the SSC. New

members included Taishi Sugiyama

(Japan), Jyrki Luukannen (Finland), and

Arild Underdal (Norway). Joining the SSC meeting were

Syma Ebbin (IPO Executive Officer), Antonio Contreras,

(IDGEC Research Fellow, Philippines), Sylvia Karlsson

(IHDP Secretariat), Ooi Giok Lin (Singapore), and Robert

Wasson (IGBP Scientific Committee).

IDGEC’s science agenda is implemented through flagship

activities focused on the political economy of forestry (PEF),

carbon management (CMRA) and the performance of the

exclusive economic zones (PEEZ), as well as several cross-

cutting themes. Each of the three flagship activities has pub-

lished a scoping report and made the transition from plan-

ning to active research. At this time, however, it is too soon

to synthesize findings from the project.

Funded by the Asia Pacific Network (APN), the PEF team

has just completed a series of case studies on the political

economy of forests in Southeast Asian countries. A report

summarizing the study’s findings will be completed this

summer. The team is currently beginning a second APN

funded project focused on the implications of sustainable

livelihoods and biodiversity in Southeast Asia on resilience

and risk. The PEF team is also developing another proposal

for APN funding for a study comparing tropical and boreal

forest governance.

PEEZ held its second workshop in Bali immediately fol-

lowing the IDGEC SSC meeting.

Alf Håkon Hoel has received a research grant from the

Norwegian Research Council that will fund a third PEEZ

workshop in September at the University of Tromsø. IDGEC

Research Fellow Frank Alcock authored a successful grant

proposal to Duke University that will facilitate a

fourth PEEZ workshop in the spring of 2003 at

Duke University.

Two CMRA activities are in

progress: an agent-based model of

compliance and a scenario-based

model of emissions trading in the

21st century. With the develop-

ment of the joint IGBP/IHDP/

WCRP Global Carbon Project

Science Plan and Implementation

Strategy, it was decided that

future research efforts of the

IDGEC CMRA should directly contribute to this endeavor.

The SSC identified the development of partnerships with

other programs and organizations and the IDGEC network

as high priorities. The SSC endorsed the IDGEC Network

Initiative, which was the focus of a story in a previous

newsletter. It also endorsed the introduction of the IDGEC

Policy Links Publication Series and a web-conferencing

pilot project. The members of the SSC decided to continue

and formalize the IDGEC Research Fellows Program.

Guidelines for prospective fellows are currently being drawn

up. IDGEC’s presentation and publication strategies were

also discussed, identifying fora where relevant research

should be presented. Finally, the SSC emphasized the need

for IDGEC research to be both policy-relevant and

accessible.

SYMA ALEXI EBBIN is Executive Officer, International

Project Office of the IHDP Project on Institutional

Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC),

Dartmouth College, Hanover, USA;

[email protected]; www.dartmouth.edu/~idgec

IDGEC SSC CONVENES IN BALI BY SYMA ALEXI EBBIN

I D G E C

1 8 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2

core projectsPh

otos

:E.D

yck

➤

➤ A major issue discussed within both the IHDP and theIGBP research communities is a common methodological

approach for integrating the ecological and the social

processes at varied scalar dimensions, from plot level to

landscape level analysis, and final upgrading to regional

scale. In this context the following discussion on India’s con-

tributions to human dimension-related global change

research becomes significant.

Human dimension-related global change research was

started in India in the early 1970s. An initiative of over 60

scientists and 10 community participants aimed at finding a

sustainable management for shifting agriculture areas, using

a socio-ecological systems approach in studies on North-

Eastern India (1). During the early 1980s, Indian researchers

were involved in the international Tropical Soil Biology and

Fertility (TSBF) programme of the International Union of

Biological Sciences and UNESCO, using a farming system

approach for sustainable agriculture (2). These efforts were

restricted to socio-ecologically complex mountain systems.

Recently, this research was extended to the plains of India,

applying a socio-ecological systems approach to analyse

land-use dynamics.

A SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL APPROACH

We used an integrated socio-ecological system perspec-

tive to examine the dynamics of sustainability issues (Fig. 1)

and linked ‘Traditional Ecological Knowledge’ (TEK) with

‘Formal Knowledge’ to identify suitable technologies for a

sustainable management of natural resources. A wide variety

of traditional agro-ecosystems, ranging from casually man-

aged shifting agriculture to sedentary systems, and varied

levels of ecological and economic efficiencies, linked to for-

est ecosystems with energy and resource flows between the

two, required the building of bridges between natural and

human-managed ecosystem functions. Integrated forest and

agricultural system management practices strengthened soil

biological processes.

Based on a historical analysis of the factors responsible

for land degradation, the objective was to design agro-

ecosystem models by combining sustainability with higher

production levels. This was achieved by linking the tradi-

tional and the formal knowledge systems within a social con-

text (1,3). For less-developed societies, it was necessary to

gradually build upon TEK using an incremental pathway. For

societies ready to accept more developed agro-ecosystem

models, a mix of traditional and formal knowledge bases was

used to fit the model into the ecological contours of the

landscape – the contour pathway. For modern agriculture, the

buffering mechanisms in the landscape were strengthened to

avert land degradation. All three models were able to coexist

in a landscape, the proportion being determined by socio-

ecological conditions.

A related concern was forest management, particularly

where degradation was most rampant and managing forest

biodiversity was critical for the overall sustainability of the

landscape (4). Recognizing the linkage between socially

selected and ecologically significant keystones (5) enabled us

to link resource management efforts with local communities’

value systems. This ensured local participation in biodiversi-

ty conservation and met the needs for a sustainable liveli-

hood. Many species were identified from diverse socio-eco-

logical systems; often the same sets of species were found in

different situations. Silviculture was linked to ecological,

social, economic and cultural dimensions of forest ecosys-

tem management.

POLICY DIMENSIONS OF RESEARCH

Operating within a socio-ecological framework, we used

print and audio-visual media to reach out to policy planners

and developmental agencies. The two contrasting socio-eco-

logical situations that demand different strategies were:

(a) redeveloping traditional land use systems to conserve

natural and human-managed biodiversity, and (b) building

buffering mechanisms to counter the adverse effects of high-

ly intensive land-use management practices.

An example of strategy (a) is the Nagaland experiment in

North-Eastern India. It involved 1200 village communities,

created institutions based on traditional values, and built

upon traditional knowledge. Due to our research efforts (4),

it resulted in a redevelopment of shifting agriculture systems

in the region, based on a traditional value system.

Understanding soil biological processes, manipulating them

through appropriate soil organic residue management, and

using earthworms as indicators for soil fertility improved the

buffering capacity of the soil. This led to a 50% reduction in

the use of inorganic fertilizers in the tea garden systems of

southern India and was patented as part of the TSBF initia-

tive (6).

During the past decades we have tried to build the capa-

bility to arrive at a methodological approach (see Fig. 1) and

effectively link ecological with social processes in the area of

landscape ecology and its sustainable management. This was

undertaken with community participation in the context of

‘global change’. These efforts were able to cut across socio-

ecological systems by designing adaptive landscape manage-

ment strategies. The capacity building effort spread over 30

years and involved more than 150 young scientists in this

research field.

REFERENCES to this article and Fig. 1 are included on the

IHDP website at

www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm

P.S. RAMAKRISHNAN is a Professor at the School of

Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University,

New Delhi, India; he is a member of the IHDP Scientific

Committee and Chair of the Indian National Human

Dimensions Committee; [email protected]

AN INDIAN EXPERIENCETowards an integrative approach to global change research | BY P.S. RAMAKRISHNAN

I N D I A

I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 1 9

national committees

➤

➤

➤ Urbanisation, deforestation, pollution, climate change ... sustainable development at all scalesrepresents perhaps the most daunting challenge that humanity has ever faced. How can we live sus-

tainably on our planet? Science holds many of the answers. Recent research is providing crucial tools

for understanding the ‘earth system’, allowing improved impact assessment, risk prediction, and

development of sustainable technologies.

PrepCom4 in Bali (27 May-7 June 2002) was the last stop on the road to the World Summit on

Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg. The multidisciplinary nature of global sustain-

ability made PrepCom4 an excellent opportunity to run a collaborative media campaign by the GEC

programmes, as part of the contribution of the International Council of Science (ICSU) to the

WSSD. To enhance their co-operation, the GEC programmes recently formed the »Earth System

Science Partnership« (ESSP) (see Interview with Jill Jäger, p. 23).

A team of communicators of the ESSP organised an »International Science Roundtable for the

Media: Surviving the Third Millennium«, held during PrepCom4 in Bali. ICSU, a sponsor of the GEC

programmes, provided funding for the event. The roundtable aimed at highlighting the crucial role

science can and should play in sustainable development, using timely results from the ESSP com-

munity.

A panel of international experts gave brief insights into their areas of expertise to an audience of

media representatives, scientists, and delegates to the WSSD. All stories had a SE Asian angle, but

were also of global relevance.

Science and Technology as a Foundation for Sustainable Development was addressed by Gisbert

Glaser (ICSU’s Senior Advisor on Science for Sustainable Development). He emphasised the impor-

tance of scientific knowledge and appropriate technologies in resolving the economic, social and

environmental problems that make current development paths unsustainable, and stressed ICSU’s

role in the WSSD process.

How sustainable is the development of mega-cities in Asia? This was discussed by Shobhakar

Dhakal (IHDP and Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan), based on an inter-

national, IHDP-IT supported study that investigates how ‘Industrial Transformation’ in Asian mega-

cities impacts on the environment (see article p. 8).

When the monsoon and El Nino clash over SE Asia, the Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJOs) may

be a major cause of floods and cyclones in SE Asia and Australia. Matthew Wheeler (WCRP and the

Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre) presented a new technique that promises to give

advance warning of such events.

The destruction of mangrove forests in SE Asia, primarily due to dig ponds for shrimp aquacul-

ture and for wood chips for the rayon industry, is releasing as much CO2 into the atmosphere each

year as 3 million cars. Jin Eong Ong (IGBP and the University of Sains, Malaysia) disclosed the hid-den costs of mangrove destruction and showed ways to a sustainable forestry.

Will tropical forests last? Daniel Murdiyarso (START and the Bogor Agricultural University,

Indonesia) painted a dim picture of deforestation in SE Asia, due to unsustainable forest manage-

ment and illegal logging practices. Science could help in several ways, such as bridging the informa-

tion gap by policy-relevant research and developing a sustainable forest management that benefits

the indigenous people.

Overfishing in Asia has reduced the largest and most commercially preferred marine species to 5

% of their 1930s abundance. Carmen Ablan (DIVERSITAS and the World Fish Center, Malaysia)

explained how a better understanding of the genetic diversity of fish populations might hold the

key to managing marine fish stocks and conserving biodiversity.

In a concluding talk, Robert J. Wasson (IGBP and the Australian National University) gave the

»Big Picture of Sustainability«, summing up the various issues and explaining how science and the

knowledge it creates could help to embark on a path towards sustainable development.

The research presented in Bali was covered in reports by Indonesian and international print and

electronic media and news agencies. For more information on the International Science Roundtable

for the Media go to www.igbp.kva.se/prepcom4/ and www.ihdp.org (What’s New – Press Releases).

ELISABETH DYCK is Information Officer at the IHDP Secretariat; [email protected]

SURVIVING THE THIRD MILLENNIUMInternational Science Roundtable for the Media – Joint Event of ICSU, IGBP, IHDP,

WCRP, DIVERSITAS, and START – 4 June 2002, Bali, Indonesia | BY ELISABETH DYCK

E S S P M E D I A R O U N D T A B L Ein brief

Phot

os:E

.Dyc

k

From left: S. Arai (SecretaryGeneral, IGES), S. Dhakal,A. Morishima (Chair of the

Board, IGES), G. Glaser

M.Wheeler is interviewed by anIndonesian TV station

Jin Eong Ong (left) and W. Eckert of Germany’s

SWR/ARD radio

Jakarta’s radio station 68Hinterviews D. Murdiyarso

R.J. Wasson (left) talking to Reuters’ Dean Yates

2 0 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2

➤

➤➤➤ IHDP SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE

IHDP SC CHAIR. Coleen Heather Vogel (South Africa)

has been appointed as Chair of the IHDP Scientific

Committee (SC) for a term of 3 years, effective 1 July 2002.

She is a Professor at the Department of Geography and

Environmental Studies, University of Witwatersrand,

Johannesburg, South Africa. Previously, Coleen was a mem-

ber of the Scientific Steering Committee of the IHDP/IGBP

Project on Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC).

IHDP SC VICE-CHAIR. M.A. Mohamed Salih(Sudan/The Netherlands), a member of the SC, has been

appointed as Vice-Chair of the IHDP Scientific Committee.

Mohamed is a Professor of Politics of Development at the

Institute of Social Studies in The Hague, and the

Department of Political Science, University of Leiden, The

Netherlands.

NEW IHDP SC MEMBERS. We also welcome three new

members on the Scientific Committee:

Tatiana Kluvankova-Oravska (Slovak Republic), an econo-

mist at the Institute for Forecasting of the Slovak Academy

of Sciences, Bratislava;

Roberto Sanchez-Rodriguez (Mexico), a geographer at the

Department of Environmental Studies, University of

California, Santa Cruz, USA;

Paul L.G. Vlek (The Netherlands), Director for Ecology and

Resource Management at the Center for Development

Research (ZEF) in Bonn.

The SC guides IHDP’s work and research activities. All

appointments, made by IHDP’s sponsoring organisations,

the International Council for Science (ICSU) and the

International Social Science Council (ISSC), are effective as

of 1 July 2002.

➤➤➤ NEWS FROM GECHS

The International Project Office (IPO) of the IHDP

Project on Global Environmental Change and Human

Security (GECHS) has been moved to Carleton University,

Ottawa, Canada. Its new home is within the University’s

Department of Geography and Environmental Studies,

where Mike Brklacich, Chair of the GECHS Scientific

Steering Committee, is located.

Maureen Woodrow has been hired as new Executive

Officer of the GECHS IPO. She has a PhD in sociology and

most recently was a coordinator of research initiatives with

the Institute of the Environment at the University of Ottawa,

working with several community-based environmental

projects. Maureen brings considerable research and project

management experience to the GECHS team. However, a

GECHS presence will remain at the University of Victoria,

with Ann Zurbrigg continuing to work part-time until the

end of November; also, the production of the AVISO

Bulletin will remain in Victoria.

➤➤➤ 23-24 September – Amsterdam, The Netherlands

IHDP-IT Second Workshop for Carbon Flows Between Eastern and Western Europe (CFEWE)Organised by the Institute for Environmental Studies

(IVM) at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and the IHDP-IT

Project, in association with CFEWE partners;

Contact: [email protected]/ivm/research/ihdp-it/implementation/enma.htm

➤➤➤ 6-7 December – Berlin, Germany

2002 Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions ofGlobal Environmental Change: »Knowledge for theSustainability Transition: The Challenge for SocialScience« endorsed by IHDP-IDGEC and IHDP-IT

Annual Convention of the Environmental Policy &

Global Change Section of the German Political Science

Association

Contact: [email protected]/

➤➤➤ 9-11 December – Vienna, Austria

International Conference on the Social Sciencesand Social Policy in the 21st Century

Organized by the International Social Science Council

(ISSC) in cooperation with UNESCO; co-sponsored by the

Austrian Federal Ministry of Education, Science and

Culture and the Austrian Commission for UNESCO;

Session organised by IHDP on Human Dimensions on

Global Environmental Change Research and the Global

Science-Policy Interface (contact: [email protected])Contact: [email protected]

N E W S / M E E T I N G Sin brief / calendar

IN BRIEF CALENDAR

International Conference on theUrban Dimensions of Environmental Change:Science, Exposures, Policies and Technologies

➤➤➤ 3-6 June 2003, Shanghai, P.R. China

This conference, co-sponsored by IHDP, will examine

causes, impacts, and responses to environmental change in

the world’s major cities and urban areas. Relating to both

the science and the management of urban environmental

change, topics for the conference will include policy, regula-

tion, technology, impact adaptation, mitigation, and reme-

diation.

Specific environmental changes to be addressed include:➤ Environmental Contamination➤ Land Use Change➤ Local and Global Climate Change

The conference is organised by the East China Normal

University, Shanghai, and the Montclair State University,

New Jersey, USA.

Deadline for submission of abstracts: 15 January 2003.

For more information go to

www.montclair.edu/globaled/Shanghai

I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 2 1

GROWING UP IN AN URBANISING WORLD

Louise Chawla (ed.), Earthscan in association with UNESCOpublishing, 2002; 256 pp.cloth ISBN 1853838276 £50.00paper ISBN 1853838284 £18.95 / £16.11 (online)➤ In industrialised countries, over half of all children live in

urban areas, and the same will be true in the developing

world in the near future. Yet, by almost all indicators, cities

are failing to meet the needs of young people, prejudicing

their opportunities as adults. This volume will be of interest

to anyone concerned with how urban environments address

the needs of future generations. More information at

www.earthscan.co.uk

BIODIVERSITY, SUSTAINABILITY AND HUMAN

COMMUNITIES: Protecting Beyond the ProtectedTim O`Riordan and Susanne Stoll-Kleemann (eds.),Cambridge University Press, August 2002; cloth ISBN 0 521 81365 4; £ 45.00 paper ISBN 0 521 89052 7; £ 16.95

➤ Biodiversity is the key indicator

of a healthy planet. Losses of bio-

diversity have become widespread

and current rates are catastrophic

for species and habitat integrity.

Biodiversity, Sustainability and

Human Communities advocates

the preservation of the best

remaining habitats and the

enhancement of new biodiverse

habitats to ensure that they cope

with human impact, climate

change and alien species invasion.

These aims can be achieved by a

mix of strict protection, inclusive

involvement of local people, and by combining livelihoods

and social well being in all future biodiversity management.

More information at www.cambridge.org

HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF THE CARBON CYCLE:

Summary of a WorkshopCommittee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change,National Research Council, Paul C. Stern, Washington:National Academy Press, May 2002; 41 pp.; ➤ The carbon cycle has become interesting to policy makers

because human activities that release carbon-containing

GHG are the primary source of the threat of global warming.

In the US, the carbon cycle has become a major element of

global change research, although so far this effort has not yet

integrated the relevant fields of the social and behavioural

sciences. This report summarizes a November 2001 work-

shop at the National Research Council intended to improve

communication between the relevant research communities

in the natural and social sciences, leading eventually to an

expansion of the carbon cycle programme element in direc-

tions that would better integrate the two domains. It can be

read on-line or ordered at www.nap.edu

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE:

Options and OpportunitiesDaniel C. Esty and Maria H. Ivanova (eds.), Yale School ofForestry & Environmental Studies, July 2002; ISBN 0-9707882-2-3➤ This volume provides an analysis of various ways to manage

our increasing ecological interdependence, lays out options

for strengthening global environmen-

tal governance, and includes a chapter

by Sylvia Karlsson (IHDP) on »The

North-South Knowledge Divide:

Consequences for Global Environ-

mental Governance«. The authors

urge countries participating in the

World Summit on Sustainable

Development to seize the opportunity

and demonstrate a commitment to

action with four concrete initiatives

focusing on: (1) global environmental

data and information; (2) financing

for sustainable development; (3) tech-

nology promotion; and (4) exploration of options for

strengthening global environmental governance.

Chapter PDFs are available at

www.yale.edu/environment/publications/geg/index.html

NEW TOOLS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION:

Education, Information, and Voluntary MeasuresCommittee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change,National Research Council, T. Dietz and P.C. Stern (eds.),Washington: National Academy Press, June 2002; ➤ Many believe that environmental regulation has passed a

point of diminishing returns: that the quick fixes have been

achieved and the sources of pollution are shifting from large

»point sources« to more diffuse sources that are more diffi-

cult and expensive to regulate. The political climate has also

changed in the United States since the 1970s in ways that

provide additional impetus to seek alternatives to regulation.

This book examines the potential of some of these »new

tools« that emphasise education, information, and voluntary

measures. It can be read on-line or ordered at www.nap.edu.

TRADITIONAL ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE FOR

MANAGING BIOSPHERE RESERVES IN SOUTH AND

CENTRAL ASIAN REGION

Ramakrishnan, P.S., Rai, R.K., Katwal, R.P.S. andMehndiratta, S. (eds.), UNESCO and Oxford & IBH, NewDelhi, 2002; 536 pp.This UNESCO initiative emphasises on the role of Traditional

Ecological Knowledge (TEK) for biosphere management in

South and Central Asia, based on a number of case studies

including India, Nepal and Bhutan. The volume, co-edited by

IHDP-SC member P.S. Ramakrishnan, emphasises the role of

understanding and validating TEK at the direct usage level,

and more importantly at the intersection of ecological and

social processes that impact on ecosystems. The authors call

for an integration of TEK into the ‘formal knowledge’ system,

which has implications for biosphere reserve management

with community participation.

N E W B O O K S

2 2 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2

publications

PUBLICATIONS

Q: Jill, when you look back, how did IHDP develop duringthe past years?

The importance of human dimensions research has

become increasingly recognised in recent years. It is clear

that understanding the role of humans in the Earth System

is central to dealing with the issues of global environmental

change (GEC) and, more broadly, of sustainable develop-

ment. The core projects of IHDP have made great strides in

the implementation of their research agendas. On this basis

it has become possible to increase collaboration with the

other international GEC research programmes. At the same

time, through the Open Meetings of the human dimensions

research community (Japan 1999 and Rio de Janeiro, 2001)

we have been able to broaden our research community,

increase the involvement of young scholars and get a clearer

view of the challenges facing this area of research. The Open

Science Meeting in Amsterdam last year was a major mile-

stone in integrating human dimensions research into the

broader agenda. Finally, I think we have made significant

progress in our capacity-building activities, and this remains

a major objective of the programme.

Q: How is the collaboration with the other GEC pro-grammes proceeding?

The central element of collaboration is the Earth SystemScience Partnership (ESSP), which has been discussed by

the Chairs and Directors of the GEC programmes at their

annual meetings over the last three years. The ESSP is an

informal partnership that emphasises the integration of the

work going on within the individual programmes. This inte-

gration is taking place in various fora – first and foremost in

the joint projects on carbon, food systems and water, but

also through START, joint sponsorship of projects, e.g., the

IGBP-IHDP joint sponsorship of the LUCC project, the

activities of »The Oslo Group«, which has been addressing

the methodological challenges of integration and the work

of the IGBP GAIM (Global Analysis, Integration and

Modelling) project.

Q: What would you consider your greatest challenge? Whatwere the most exciting and successful events?

The greatest challenge is still to secure stable and ade-

quate funding for the programme as a whole. Increasingly,

however, this challenge cannot be met alone. The ESSP will

need to develop a strategy for funding of our integrated

research, going beyond the usual sources of funding, to work

with private foundations and potentially even industrial

sponsorship. The International Project Offices of the IHDP

projects are still chronically underfunded and while the sup-

port, in particular from Germany and the USA, has been

essential for the successes of the

Secretariat in initiating and

coordinating research over the

past three years, the Secretariat

cannot meet the challenges of

implementing a strong science

agenda and building essential

capacity, without further sup-

port from a broader range of

donors. I have probably spent

about one third of my time on

this challenge over the past three years.

In terms of exciting and successful events, I have men-

tioned a few before – the Open Meetings of the human

dimensions research community and the Amsterdam Open

Science Conference. In addition, the International Human

Dimensions Workshops that took place in Bonn in 2000 and

2002 have been truly exciting, inasmuch as we stimulated a

network of young scholars from developing countries, and

we have benefited a lot from the engagement of many of

these colleagues in follow-up activities. For me, the partici-

pation in the Initiative on Science and Technology for

Sustainability (ISTS) was also an important contribution

that IHDP could make to the evolving agenda in this area.

Q: What was IHDP’s role in this Initiative?

IHDP was the host and co-organiser of one of the ISTS

regional workshops held in 2001/2002 to discuss the core

science questions, the research strategy and the infrastruc-

tural requirements for »Sustainability Science«. IHDP has a

lot to offer in terms of experience with integrated, interdis-

ciplinary, »place-based«, solution-driven research.

Q: A final question: what are your own plans for the future?

I have at least two book projects that are begging for

completion – a book, co-edited with Alex Farrell, on the

design of global environmental assessments and a book for

START, co-edited with Greg Knight, on Integrated Regional

Assessment. I worked from 1979 until 1994 as a consultant,

and I plan to revive »Jäger International« in order to carry

my interests forward. My main interests remain in the link-

age of knowledge and action, and the »sustainability science«

agenda has provided with me with new insights that I wish

to pursue. Finally, I suggested »Onward and Upward« as the

title of this interview – this is borrowed from a series of arti-

cles in the New Yorker entitled »Onward and Upward in the

Garden« – IHDP will, I am sure, continue onward and

upward, and I will devote more time to my beloved garden.

INTERVIEW BY ELISABETH DYCK

ONWARD AND UPWARDJill Jäger became the second IHDP Executive Director in April 1999,

succeeding Larry Kohler. As her term of directorship comes to a close, UPDATE

asked her to share some thoughts about her time at IHDP.

J I L L J Ä G E R

I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 2 3

interview

Photo: P. Pommerening

➤

IHDP SECRETARIAT

• IHDP Secretariat:Jill Jäger, Executive Director

Walter-Flex-Str. 3

53113 Bonn, Germany

Phone: +49-228-739050

Fax: +49-228-739054

[email protected]

www.ihdp.org

IHDP CORE PROJECTS

➤ GECHS

• Global EnvironmentalChange and Human Security c/o Maureen Woodrow

Executive Officer

GECHS International Project Office

Dept. of Geography &

Environmental Studies,

Carleton University

1125 Colonel By Drive

Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada

[email protected]

www.gechs.org

➤ IDGEC

• Institutional Dimensions ofGlobal Environmental Change c/o Syma Ebbin, Executive Officer

IDGEC International Project Office

6214 Fairchild, Dartmouth College,

Hanover, NH 03755, USA

[email protected]

www.dartmouth.edu/~idgec

➤ IT

• Industrial Transformation c/o Anna J. Wieczorek,

Executive Officer

IT International Project Office

Institute of Environmental Studies

De Boelelaan 1087

1081 HV Amsterdam

The Netherlands

[email protected]

www.vu.nl/ivm/research/ihdp-it/

➤ LUCC

• Land-Use and Land-CoverChange c/o Helmut Geist, Executive Officer

LUCC International Project Office

University of Louvain

Place L. Pasteur 3

1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

[email protected]

www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC

JOINT PROJECTS

➤ GECAFS

• Global EnvironmentalChange and Food Systems c/o John Ingram, Executive OfficerGECAFS International ProjectOffice, NERC-Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Wallingford OX 10 8BB, UK

[email protected]

www.gecafs.org

➤ GCP

• Global Carbon Projectc/o Kathy A. Hibbard, Interim

Executive Officer

University of New Hampshire

Morse Hall, Durham, NH 03824

USA

[email protected]

http://gaim.sr.unh.edu/cjp/

➤ Water

• Water Joint Projectc/o Sylvia Karlsson

IHDP Liaison Officer

IHDP Secretariat, Bonn, Germany

[email protected]

IHDP SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE (SC)

➤ Chair

• Coleen Heather VogelDept. of Geography & Env. Studies

University of Witwatersrand

Johannesburg, South Africa

[email protected]

➤ Vice Chair

• M.A. Mohamed SalihInstitute of Social Studies

The Hague, The Netherlands

[email protected]

➤ Past-Chairs

• Eckart Ehlers Institutes of Geography

University of Bonn

Bonn, Germany

[email protected]

• Arild Underdahl Rector, University of Oslo

Oslo, Norway

[email protected]

➤ Members

• William C. ClarkJFK School of Government

Harvard University

Cambridge, MA, USA

[email protected]

• Carl FolkeCNM, Stockholm University

Stockholm, Sweden

[email protected]

• Gilberto C. GallopinEconomic Commission for Latin

America & the Caribbean (ECLAC)

Santiago, Chile

[email protected]

• Carlo J. JaegerPotsdam Institute for Climate

Impact Research (PIK)

Potsdam, Germany

[email protected]

• Tatiana Kluvankova-OravskaInstitute for Forecasting

Slovak Academy of Sciences

Bratislava, Slovak Republic

[email protected]

• Elinor OstromCenter for the Study of

Institutions, Population &

Environmental Change

Indiana University

Bloomington, IN, USA

[email protected]

• Xizhe PengInstitute of Population Research

Fudan Unviersity

Shanghai, P.R. China

[email protected]

• P.S. RamakrishnanJawaharlal Nehru University

New Delhi, India

[email protected]

• Roberto Sanchez-RodriguezUniversity of California

Santa Cruz, CA, USA

[email protected]

• Paul L.G. VlekCenter for Development

Research (ZEF)

Bonn, Germany

[email protected]

EX-OFFICO MEMBERSIHDP SCIENTIFICCOMMITTEE

➤ ICSU

• Gordon McBean Institute for Catastrophic Loss

Reduction, University of Western

Ontario, London, ON, Canada

[email protected]

➤ I S S C• Kurt Pawlik Institute for Psychology I

University of Hamburg, Germany

[email protected]

➤ DIVERSITAS

• Michel LoreauEcole Normale Superieure

Laboratoire d'Ecologie

Paris, France

[email protected]

➤ IGBP

• Guy Brasseur Max-Planck-Institute for

Meteorology

Hamburg, Germany

[email protected]

➤ START (alternating)

• Sulochana GadgilIndian Institute of Science

& Oceanic Sciences

Bangalore, India

[email protected]

• Graeme I. PearmanCSIRO Atmospheric Research

Aspendale, Australia

[email protected]

➤ WCRP

• Peter LemkeAlfred-Wegener-Institute

for Polar and Marine Research

Bremerhaven, Germany

[email protected]

➤ GECHS

• Michael Brklacich Carleton University

Ottawa, Canada

[email protected]

➤ IDGEC

• Oran R. Young Dartmouth College,

Hanover, NH, USA

[email protected]

➤ IT

• Pier Vellinga Dean, Faculty of Life and Earth

Sciences

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

The Netherlands

[email protected]

➤ LUCC

• Eric Lambin Dept. of Geography

University of Louvain

Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

[email protected]

SOCIAL SCIENCE LIAISON OFFICER

• João M. MoraisIGBP Secretariat

The Royal Swedish Academy of

Sciences, P.O. Box 50 005

10405 Stockholm, Sweden

[email protected]

C O N T A C T A D D R E S S E Saddresses

S U B S C R I P T I O N

➤ For a free subscription to

this newsletter, write to the

IHDP Secretariat at the

above address

or send an e-mail to:

[email protected]

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