Update and Next Steps Green Ribbon Committee September 8, 2010 Adaptation Strategy Richard M. Daley,...
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Transcript of Update and Next Steps Green Ribbon Committee September 8, 2010 Adaptation Strategy Richard M. Daley,...
Update and Next StepsGreen Ribbon Committee
September 8, 2010
Adaptation Strategy
Richard M. Daley, Mayor
2
Adaptation agenda
Copyright 2010, City of Chicago
• Review of impacts research
Overview of climate impacts on Chicago: Temperature, Precipitation, Water Systems, Ecosystems, Health, Infrastructure
• Approach
• Next Steps
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Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010.
Fact: In a high-emissions scenario, 2010 predictions show that the Midwest could experience 45-85 days over 95° Fahrenheit by the end of the century, far more than the 31 days projected in 2007
Temperature: A warmer Chicago
Chicago Metropolitan Area Annual Average TemperaturesObservations and projections under multiple emissions scenarios
4
Midwest Seasonal Precipitation EventsProjections under High Emissions Scenario
2010-2039 2040-2069 2040-2069
Winters and Springs
Fact: In a high-emissions scenario, 2040 springs could have 20% more precipitation events and summers could have 10% fewer
Precipitation: Wet winters & springs and dry summers
Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010.
Summers
% changes relative to a 1961-1990 average
5
Great Lake Water LevelsObservations and projections under High Emissions Scenario
Facts: - In a high-emissions scenario, Great Lake Water levels could remain constant due to a balance between increased precipitation and evaporation. However, by 2020, evaporation could surpass precipitation, thus decreasing Lake levels- Lake Michigan water levels could decline by 1.5 feet by the end of the century
Water systems: Changing Great Lake water levels
Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010.
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Source: Hayhoe. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009.
Ecosystems: Changing Plant Hardiness Zones
Midwest Changes in Plant Hardiness ZonesObservations and projections under multiple emissions scenarios
Facts: - From 1990-2006, Northern IL shifted from Plant Hardiness Zone 5 to 6, representing a 10° Fahrenheit range change in the lowest temperature of the year - In a high-emissions scenario, Midwest Plant Hardiness Zones could shift 1 full zone every 30 years
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Fact: In a high-emissions scenario, Chicago could experience 1,200 heat-related deaths per year by 2085
Health: Increasing heat-related risks
Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010.
Chicago Metropolitan Area Heat-Related DeathsObservations and projections under multiple emissions scenarios
8
Infrastructure: Increasing need for resources
Chicago Metropolitan Area ComEd Territory Electricity DemandProjections under High Emissions Scenario
Fact: In a high emissions scenario, Commonwealth Edison’s (ComEd) Chicago electricity demand could increase by 2.2% by end of century relative to 2000-2005 consumption
Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010.
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• Research
• Approach
Continuous improvement of our work on Adaptation
• Next Steps
Adaptation agenda
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Drive adaptation actions at the municipal government level
Leverage existing City processes and plans to serve
adaptation goals
Prioritize most at-risk communities
Balance the need for more research with the need to act
Enhance collateral benefits of mitigation
Chicago’s Adaptation drivers
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Our Adaptation work has evolved over time
2007 2008 2009 2010
• Understood the climate science: High & low emissions climate projections and potential impacts
• Assessed economic risk: Municipal cost of doing nothing projected to be $2.54 billion under a high-emissions scenario
• Developed adaptation action framework: Prioritizing adaptation actions by risk & urgency
• Created 5 working groups: 15 City Departments & 6 sister Agencies create 39 “Adaptation Tactics” for 5 working groups (Extreme Precipitation, Extreme Heat, Infrastructure, Ecosystems, Communications/ Leadership/ Planning)
• Launched Chicago Climate Action Plan: Mayor launches CCAP in September 2008
• Created department work plans: City Departments commit to implementing adaptation actions through CCAP work plans
• Hosting “Lessons Learned” meetings: Improving responses to extreme weather events
• Forming Adaptation Advisory Group: Will provide guidance and oversight
• Work divided according to three targets of adaptation:
• People• Built environment • Natural
environment (led by Aaron Durnbaugh - DOE)
• Adaptation work pre-dates CCAP launch and Lead-by-Example workplanning process
• Working groups originally created around climate change impacts, now created around targets of adaptation
• Varying levels of working group leadership and progress to date
KeyObservations:
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We are currently preparing for climate change in three ways
Built environment
Natural environment
People
Communication
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Work is being reorganized around the three targets of adaptation
Prepare City staff and Chicagoans to respond to the effects of an altered climate
Prepare our built environment for the effects of an altered climate
B) Built environment
Prepare our ecosystems for an altered climate
C) Natural environmentA) People
Description
Action
Former working groups
Extreme heat (human response only)
Extreme precipitation (human response only)
Public health Communications,
leadership, & planning
Extreme precipitation Extreme heat Stormwater management
(not Green Infrastructure) Buildings, infrastructure,
equipment
Ecosystems
Illustrative Lead-By-Example
Initiatives
Manage Stormwater Install rain-blockers
for sewer intakes (DWM)
Develop watershed plan (MWRD/DOE/DWM)
Install A/C in schools (CPS) Evaluate cooling center
capacity (DOE, CHA)
Plant trees (DSS) Measure the performance
of different species in different environments (DSS, Parks)
Monitor health effects of climate change (CDPH)
Update emergency operations plan for entire City, including warning systems and proactive responses to the health effects of climate change (CDPH)
Create flood plan (OEMC)
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Sample climate change adaptation tasks completed to date (1/2)
Developed cross-organizational Extreme Weather Operations Plan
Enhanced Extreme Heat Precaution materials with Ozone-related information
Prepared cooling center survey to determine constituent needs in event of extreme heat
Influenced market for high albedo materials
Piloted high-albedo materials for roofs and streetscapes
Prepared electric grid for higher peak / summer loads due to A/C usage
B) Built environment C) Natural environmentA) People
Temperature
Precipitation Developed cross-organizational Extreme Weather Operations Plan, including extreme precipitation emergencies
Managing Stormwater at Home; Plant a Rain Garden in Your Yard; rain barrel distribution
Created Stormwater Management Framework and reduced impervious surface area by 55 acres through Stormwater Management Ordinance
Influenced market for permeable paving materials
Installed 120+ green alleys & streets, monitored performance
Began assessment of existing plans for climate readiness including Calumet Hydrologic Master Plan
Developed a trunk sewer model for 775 miles of pipe to help prioritize resource allocation
Established the Chicago Trees Initiative and increased tree canopy
Created Urban Forest Agenda Maintained natural reserves
through Greencorps Chicago Increased tree canopy cover to
17%
Restored Calumet, Indian Ridge, and Hegewisch Marshes
Piloting landscaping / bioswales to reduce stormwater burdens on sewer system (M)
Impacts of climate change
Target of adaptation work
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B) Built environment
Piloted alternative tree planting conditions
Convened Urban Ecology Adaptation Working Group
Crafted the Invasive Species Ordinance for terrestrial and aquatic species
C) Natural environmentA) People
Water Systems
Health
Ecosystems
Created Air Quality Action Agenda
Heightened awareness to mediate CC-health effects
Impacts of climate change
Target of adaptation work
Developed Climate Action Plan for Nature
Communicated to residents and businesses about which species to plant & how to preserve wildlife habitats
Advanced TARP / water storage
Infrastructure Reduced road salt usage Reinvigorated catchbasin
control (fka rainblockers)(M) Measured resiliency of
alternative roadway materials.
Sample climate change adaptation tasks completed to date (2/2)
Expanded use of wetland water control structures
Prepare clinics for increased traffic during CC-related events
Piloting landscaping / bioswales to reduce stormwater burdens on sewer system (M)
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• Research
• Approach
• Next Steps
Adaptation agenda
17
Current priorities
Implementation
Incorporate adaptation work planning into 2010 Lead-By-
Example department and sister agency workplanning process
Refine working groups and identify leaders
Create geospatial mapping tool to direct CCAP investment
Leverage existing City processes and plans to serve
adaptation goals
Form and convene new Adaptation Advisory Group in order to: Identify metrics and measure progress toward climate adaptation / resiliency
Give input to adaptation communications
Identify funding needs and financial resources
Advise on other gaps as they arise
18
Appendix
19
Capturing Stormwater On-Site vs. Manage Stormwater
Adaptation Action #1 – Infrastructure Mitigation Action #26
Capture Stormwater On-Site Manage Stormwater
Build green alleys (CDOT) Use permeable pavement and
bioswales wherever possible (CDOT, CHA)
Evaluate opportunities for stormwater retention during development of Green & Healthy neighborhood plans (DZLUP)
Collaborate on greywater reuse policy (CDPH)
Install rain-blockers for sewer intakes (DWM)
Develop watershed plan (MWRD/DOE/DWM)
Action
Example Initiatives
Collaborate with the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District on a Chicago watershed plan which factors in increased precipitation due to climate change
Use green infrastructure to reduce energy for water pumping and filtration as well as the demands on stormwater management systems
Description
20
Manage Stormwater
Capture StormwaterOn-Site
Rate of rainfall
Time
ILLUSTRATIVE:
(Inches per hour)
(Hours)
Capturing stormwater on-site effectively lowers the amount of stormwater which must be managed while saving energy normally used to pump that water
Rainfall in a given rainstorm
Key takeaway
21
Capture StormwaterOn-Site
Manage Stormwater
Total amount of rainfall in storm
(Inches)
Number of Storms
Storms in a given seasonILLUSTRATIVE:
While green infrastructure alone can handle the rainfall from most storms, stormwater management plays a crucial role in handling the largest storms
Key takeaway
22
“Migrating climate” analogues
• Summers: hot and humid
• Winters: warmer, but just as much snow
SUMMER
WINTER
Inconsistencies: Changes will not be consistent across seasons
Source: Hayhoe et al. (2010)22
23
2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099
A1fi HIGHER EMISSIONS
B1 LOWER EMISSIONS
oC
Chicago: warmer winters
23
TEMP
24
2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099
A1fi HIGHER EMISSIONS
B1 LOWER EMISSIONS
oC
Chicago: much warmer summers
24
TEMP
25
Copyright 2010, City of Chicago25
Precipitation: Chicago’s wetter winters and springs
2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099
A1fi HIGHER EMISSIONS
B1 LOWER EMISSIONS
%Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research (2010)
Periods of precipitation and dryness will be enhanced when they are least needed.
26
2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099
A1fi HIGHER EMISSIONS
B1 LOWER EMISSIONS
Chicago: drier summers
%
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Six Climate Change Impacts for Chicago
Source: “High-Resolution Climate Projections: Connecting Global Change to Local Impacts,” Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, Expert Reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
1. Temperature
2. Precipitation
3. Water Systems
4. Ecosystems
5. Health
6. Infrastructure