U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit...

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U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial Crisis and the Outlook for School Funding Tom Clay, Director of State Affairs Citizens Research Council of Michigan

Transcript of U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit...

Page 1: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

U.P. Education Legislative SummitMarquette, MI

September 8, 2005

Michigan’s Financial Crisis and the Outlook for School Funding

Michigan’s Financial Crisis and the Outlook for School Funding

Tom Clay, Director of State Affairs

Citizens Research Council of Michigan

www.crcmich.org

Tom Clay, Director of State Affairs

Citizens Research Council of Michigan

www.crcmich.org

Page 2: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 2

Citizens Research Council of MichiganCitizens Research Council of Michigan

• Founded in 1916• Statewide• Non-partisan• Private Not-for-profit• Promotes sound policy for state and local

governments through factual research• Relies on charitable contributions of

Michigan businesses, foundations, and individuals

• Founded in 1916• Statewide• Non-partisan• Private Not-for-profit• Promotes sound policy for state and local

governments through factual research• Relies on charitable contributions of

Michigan businesses, foundations, and individuals

Page 3: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 3

• Total State Budget - $41.2B• State’s Two Major Funds:

General Fund - $8.9BSchool Aid Fund - $12.8B

• Other State Funds Restricted for Other Purposes, e.g. Transportation, Federal Revenues

• Over 80% of All Revenues Spent Outside State Government

• Total State Budget - $41.2B• State’s Two Major Funds:

General Fund - $8.9BSchool Aid Fund - $12.8B

• Other State Funds Restricted for Other Purposes, e.g. Transportation, Federal Revenues

• Over 80% of All Revenues Spent Outside State Government

The Michigan BudgetFY2006 Proposal

The Michigan BudgetFY2006 Proposal

Page 4: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 4

Five Years of Budget Problems

Five Years of Budget Problems

• Worst Since World War II• Declining General Fund Revenues• Slow Growth in School Aid Fund

Revenues• Structural and Cyclical Deficits at Play• General & School Aid Funds Affected

• Worst Since World War II• Declining General Fund Revenues• Slow Growth in School Aid Fund

Revenues• Structural and Cyclical Deficits at Play• General & School Aid Funds Affected

Page 5: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 5

Deficits DefinedDeficits Defined

Cyclical — Caused by Economic Downturn - Revenues Worsen - Some Spending Pressures Increase - Deficit Erased When Economy Recovers

Structural — Caused by Cost Increases to Maintain Current Policies Outpacing Revenue Growth, Even in Good Economic Times

Cyclical — Caused by Economic Downturn - Revenues Worsen - Some Spending Pressures Increase - Deficit Erased When Economy Recovers

Structural — Caused by Cost Increases to Maintain Current Policies Outpacing Revenue Growth, Even in Good Economic Times

Page 6: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 6

Budget Deficit PressuresBudget Deficit Pressures

• Both Funds Outspending “Regular Revenues”

• Causes– Economy– Tax Cuts– Structural Imbalances In Spending and

Revenues

• Both Funds Outspending “Regular Revenues”

• Causes– Economy– Tax Cuts– Structural Imbalances In Spending and

Revenues

Page 7: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 7

General Fund & School Aid Operating Deficits

General Fund & School Aid Operating Deficits

($1,200)

($1,000)

($800)

($600)

($400)

($200)

$0

$200

$400

$600

($ i

n M

illi

on

s)

FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05

School Aid Fund

General Fund

($1,200)

($1,000)

($800)

($600)

($400)

($200)

$0

$200

$400

$600

($ i

n M

illi

on

s)

FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05

School Aid Fund

General Fund

Page 8: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 8

Summary of One-Time Resources (in Millions)

Summary of One-Time Resources (in Millions)

Rainy Day Fund $1,363 FY2000 School Aid Fund Surplus 984

FY2000 General Fund Surplus 212

Medicaid Benefits Trust Fund 561

Advance State Education Tax Collection Date 455

Tobacco Settlement/Merit Award Revenues 317

Temporary Federal Fiscal Assistance 655

Bond for Pay-as-you-go Capital Projects 211

Revenue Sharing Accounting Change 181

Refinance Bonds 209

Employee Wage Concessions 186

Other 1,200

$6,534

Page 9: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 9

Causes of Michigan’s Budget Problems

Causes of Michigan’s Budget Problems

• Structural Imbalances

• Weak Economy

• Tax Cuts

• Stock Market Decline

• Michigan’s Deteriorating Share of Auto and Light Truck Market

• Structural Imbalances

• Weak Economy

• Tax Cuts

• Stock Market Decline

• Michigan’s Deteriorating Share of Auto and Light Truck Market

Page 10: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 10

How Weak is the Economy?How Weak is the Economy?

Michigan’s Recent Statistics:• 50th in Personal Income Growth• 50th in Unemployment Rate• 50th in Employment Growth (Decline for

Michigan-Only State in the U.S.)

• 50th in Index of Economic Momentum (Population, Personal Income, Employment)

Michigan’s Recent Statistics:• 50th in Personal Income Growth• 50th in Unemployment Rate• 50th in Employment Growth (Decline for

Michigan-Only State in the U.S.)

• 50th in Index of Economic Momentum (Population, Personal Income, Employment)

Page 11: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 11

Total U.S. Vehicle Sales & Big 3 Share 1992-2004

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

Sale

s Le

vel

52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%

Total U.S. Sales Light Vehicles Big 3 Share of Total Sales

Page 12: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 12

Michigan Manufacturing Employment

Michigan Manufacturing Employment

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Mon

thly

Em

ploy

men

t (1

000s

)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Mon

thly

Em

ploy

men

t (1

000s

)

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

June 2005671,400

Lost 1 in 4 Manufacturing Jobs

Jan 1992

775,900

Jul 1999908,200

Page 13: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 13

The General FundThe General Fund

• Revenues May Be Spent for Any State Program

• Income Tax and Single Business Tax Comprise Nearly 3/4 of Revenues

• Both Taxes Have Been Cut Significantly in Recent Years

• Annual Cuts Now Total $1.3 Billion

• Revenues May Be Spent for Any State Program

• Income Tax and Single Business Tax Comprise Nearly 3/4 of Revenues

• Both Taxes Have Been Cut Significantly in Recent Years

• Annual Cuts Now Total $1.3 Billion

Page 14: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 14

Perspective On RevenuesPerspective On Revenues

• General Fund Revenues in FY03, FY04, & FY05 Below FY1995

• Inflation-Adjusted General Fund Revenues Below 1972 Level

• General Fund Revenues in FY03, FY04, & FY05 Below FY1995

• Inflation-Adjusted General Fund Revenues Below 1972 Level

Page 15: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 15

General Fund RevenuesGeneral Fund Revenues

$7,000

$7,500

$8,000

$8,500

$9,000

$9,500

$10,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Fiscal Year

Mil

lio

ns

Page 16: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 16

General Fund BudgetGeneral Fund Budget

83% of General Fund Spending in 4 Areas:1. Higher Education ($1.8B)2. Community Health—Mental Health,

Public Health, Medicaid ($2.5B)3. Corrections ($1.7B)4. Human Services—Family Services,

Juvenile Justice, Public Assistance ($1.1B)

All Other General Fund Programs—$1.5B

83% of General Fund Spending in 4 Areas:1. Higher Education ($1.8B)2. Community Health—Mental Health,

Public Health, Medicaid ($2.5B)3. Corrections ($1.7B)4. Human Services—Family Services,

Juvenile Justice, Public Assistance ($1.1B)

All Other General Fund Programs—$1.5B

Page 17: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 17

Significant CutsSignificant Cuts

• Higher Education Cut 14% in 2 Yrs - $297M

• Revenue Sharing Cut 26% in 4 Yrs - $399M

• General Fund Support for School Aid Cut 75% in 3 Yrs - $284M

• State Workforce Down 8,500 in 3 Yrs (14%) - Smallest Workforce Since 1974

• Higher Education Cut 14% in 2 Yrs - $297M

• Revenue Sharing Cut 26% in 4 Yrs - $399M

• General Fund Support for School Aid Cut 75% in 3 Yrs - $284M

• State Workforce Down 8,500 in 3 Yrs (14%) - Smallest Workforce Since 1974

Page 18: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 18

MedicaidMedicaid

• Spending Up 40% in 4 Yrs—Nearly Double Digit Increases

• Caseload Up 27%• Covers 1.4 Million Michigan Citizens• Pressures on Rates Paid Providers—

Could Add Significantly to Growth in Future

• Spending Up 40% in 4 Yrs—Nearly Double Digit Increases

• Caseload Up 27%• Covers 1.4 Million Michigan Citizens• Pressures on Rates Paid Providers—

Could Add Significantly to Growth in Future

Page 19: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 19

CorrectionsCorrections

• Spending Up 14% in 3 Years• Largest State-Operated Program• 50,000 Prisoners• Over 30% of State Workers• Over Half of Workers Paid From

General Fund Revenues• Higher Incarceration Rate Than

Neighbors

• Spending Up 14% in 3 Years• Largest State-Operated Program• 50,000 Prisoners• Over 30% of State Workers• Over Half of Workers Paid From

General Fund Revenues• Higher Incarceration Rate Than

Neighbors

Page 20: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 20

States With More Than 500 Prisoners Per 100,000 Residents

States With More Than 500 Prisoners Per 100,000 Residents

Page 21: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 21

Beyond FY2006: The General Fund Structural

Problem Continues

Beyond FY2006: The General Fund Structural

Problem Continues

• Expenditure Causes– Medicaid– Corrections

• Revenue Causes– Antiquated Revenue Structure– Revenue Sources Unresponsive to Economic Growth

• Expenditure Causes– Medicaid– Corrections

• Revenue Causes– Antiquated Revenue Structure– Revenue Sources Unresponsive to Economic Growth

Page 22: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 22

MedicaidMedicaid

• Projected Spending Pressures Exceed General Fund Revenue Growth

• Significant State Revenue Sources Will Not Grow—e.g. Tobacco Revenues

• General Fund Requirements Grow at 150% of Total Spending Growth

• Near Term General Fund Increases at 12% - 3 to 4 Times as Fast as Revenues

• Projected Spending Pressures Exceed General Fund Revenue Growth

• Significant State Revenue Sources Will Not Grow—e.g. Tobacco Revenues

• General Fund Requirements Grow at 150% of Total Spending Growth

• Near Term General Fund Increases at 12% - 3 to 4 Times as Fast as Revenues

Page 23: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 23

CorrectionsCorrections

• Crime Rates Falling but Prison Populations Continue to Increase

• Populations Projected to Increase 1,800/ Year until 2010 (if Current Policies Continue)

• Annual Cost Increases About $100M• Annual Increases About 7%—Twice as

Fast as Revenues Will Grow

• Crime Rates Falling but Prison Populations Continue to Increase

• Populations Projected to Increase 1,800/ Year until 2010 (if Current Policies Continue)

• Annual Cost Increases About $100M• Annual Increases About 7%—Twice as

Fast as Revenues Will Grow

Page 24: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 24

Structural Revenue IssuesStructural Revenue Issues

• Revenue System Reflects Economy of the 50s, 60s, and 70s

• Revenues Grow More Slowly than Economy

• Consumption Taxes Goods-Oriented• Relatively Few Services are Taxed• Services are Over Half of Private

Sector Economic Activity

• Revenue System Reflects Economy of the 50s, 60s, and 70s

• Revenues Grow More Slowly than Economy

• Consumption Taxes Goods-Oriented• Relatively Few Services are Taxed• Services are Over Half of Private

Sector Economic Activity

Page 25: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 25

State Taxes as a Percent of Michigan Personal Income

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Year

Per

cen

t

Page 26: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 26

A Medium-Range General Fund Budget Scenario

A Medium-Range General Fund Budget Scenario

• Medicaid & Corrections Projections Incorporated

• Other Areas of General Fund Spending Assumed to Increase at 3%/Yr

• Revenues Grow about 3%/Yr• Major Revenue Sources w/No Growth —Retard Overall Growth

• Medicaid & Corrections Projections Incorporated

• Other Areas of General Fund Spending Assumed to Increase at 3%/Yr

• Revenues Grow about 3%/Yr• Major Revenue Sources w/No Growth —Retard Overall Growth

Page 27: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 27

Combining Revenues and Spending Pressures

Combining Revenues and Spending Pressures

• State Will Have Balanced Budgets— Constitutionally Required

• Incremental Problem Each Year Will Exceed $300M (Over 3% of Spending Base) After FY2006

• State Will Have Balanced Budgets— Constitutionally Required

• Incremental Problem Each Year Will Exceed $300M (Over 3% of Spending Base) After FY2006

Page 28: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 28

General Fund Structural Deficit

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Fiscal Year

In M

illio

ns

General Fund Spending Pressures

General Fund Revenues

Page 29: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 29

ImplicationsImplications

• Balancing Budget W/Spending Cuts Will Require Structural Changes Likely Affecting Medicaid & Corrections

• Significant Changes in State Financial Support for Local Government & Higher Education Would Likely Continue

• Balancing Budget W/Spending Cuts Will Require Structural Changes Likely Affecting Medicaid & Corrections

• Significant Changes in State Financial Support for Local Government & Higher Education Would Likely Continue

Page 30: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 30

School Aid:Growing Spending Pressures

and Weak Revenue Performance

School Aid:Growing Spending Pressures

and Weak Revenue Performance

• Retirement Contributions

• Employee Health Insurance

• General Pay Raises

• Revenues Growing Slowly

• Retirement Contributions

• Employee Health Insurance

• General Pay Raises

• Revenues Growing Slowly

Page 31: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 31

School Aid RevenuesSchool Aid Revenues

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

$11,000

$12,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Fiscal Year

Mil

lio

ns

Page 32: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 32

The School Aid FundThe School Aid Fund

• Revenues Earmarked Exclusively for Public Schools

• FY2006 Forecast $12.6 Billion• Slow Growth in Revenues Since FY2003• Main Sources of Revenue:

– Sale and Use Taxes- $5.5 Billion (40%)– Income Tax- $2.1 Billion (16%)– State Education Property Tax- $2.0 Billion (15%)– Other Revenues Include Lottery, Cigarette, Federal

• Revenues Earmarked Exclusively for Public Schools

• FY2006 Forecast $12.6 Billion• Slow Growth in Revenues Since FY2003• Main Sources of Revenue:

– Sale and Use Taxes- $5.5 Billion (40%)– Income Tax- $2.1 Billion (16%)– State Education Property Tax- $2.0 Billion (15%)– Other Revenues Include Lottery, Cigarette, Federal

Page 33: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 33

State-Local School Finance Relationship

State-Local School Finance Relationship

• Amounts of Total Revenue for Each District Determined By The State Pursuant to State Law and Appropriations

• School Aid Revenues and Total Local Operating Property Taxes Determine The Amount the State Can “Afford”

• Local School Operating Property Taxes Subtracted From The Total to Determine State Payments to District

• School Districts Cannot Levy Operating Taxes

• Districts Pay Retirement Contributions As A Flat Percentage of Payrolls

• Amounts of Total Revenue for Each District Determined By The State Pursuant to State Law and Appropriations

• School Aid Revenues and Total Local Operating Property Taxes Determine The Amount the State Can “Afford”

• Local School Operating Property Taxes Subtracted From The Total to Determine State Payments to District

• School Districts Cannot Levy Operating Taxes

• Districts Pay Retirement Contributions As A Flat Percentage of Payrolls

Page 34: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 34

The Economic and Revenue Outlook for FY2006

The Economic and Revenue Outlook for FY2006

• Moderate Economic Recovery

• Small Employment Gains

• Improved Income Growth• General & School Aid Fund

Revenue Growth — 3.5 to 4%

• Moderate Economic Recovery

• Small Employment Gains

• Improved Income Growth• General & School Aid Fund

Revenue Growth — 3.5 to 4%

Page 35: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 35

FY2006 School Aid ProposalFY2006 School Aid Proposal

• $175 Per Pupil Increase

• $50 Increase for High School Students

• Increases for At-Risk Students, Intermediate School Districts, and Special Education

• Funding Increases Will Be Absorbed by Higher Retirement and Health Insurance Costs

• $175 Per Pupil Increase

• $50 Increase for High School Students

• Increases for At-Risk Students, Intermediate School Districts, and Special Education

• Funding Increases Will Be Absorbed by Higher Retirement and Health Insurance Costs

Page 36: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 36

School Aid Outlook Beyond FY2006School Aid Outlook Beyond FY2006

• Moderate Revenue Growth ($250 Per Pupil)• Revenue Growth Rate Below General Economy• Annual Revenue Increases in 3 to 3.5 Percent

Range• Not Enough Growth to Match Spending

Pressures

• Moderate Revenue Growth ($250 Per Pupil)• Revenue Growth Rate Below General Economy• Annual Revenue Increases in 3 to 3.5 Percent

Range• Not Enough Growth to Match Spending

Pressures

Page 37: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 37

Significant Continuing Demands On Revenues

Significant Continuing Demands On Revenues

• Retirement Contributions

• Employee Health Insurance

• General Pay Raises

• Fuel and Utilities

• Retirement Contributions

• Employee Health Insurance

• General Pay Raises

• Fuel and Utilities

Page 38: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 38

Public School Employees Retirement System

Public School Employees Retirement System

• CRC Report Issued in September, 2004

• Covers Pension and Health Benefit Contributions

• Projections Still on Target

• CRC Report Issued in September, 2004

• Covers Pension and Health Benefit Contributions

• Projections Still on Target

Page 39: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 39

School Retirement FundingSchool Retirement Funding

• School Districts Pay Contributions for Employees

• Rate for FY2006 16.34% of Payrolls

• Contribution Rate Composed of Two Parts– Regular Pension Benefit– Health Care Benefits

• Both Parts Will Continue to Increase Dramatically in the Future

• School Districts Pay Contributions for Employees

• Rate for FY2006 16.34% of Payrolls

• Contribution Rate Composed of Two Parts– Regular Pension Benefit– Health Care Benefits

• Both Parts Will Continue to Increase Dramatically in the Future

Page 40: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 40

Pension Funding ComponentPension Funding Component

• Stock Market Crash in 2001 and 2002

• Lost 22% of Market Value In 2 Years

• Gap Between Assumptions and Actual Returns Was Nearly 40%

• Contribution Rate Subsidized By Reserves in FY04, FY05 and FY06

• Rate Jumps From 7% in FY04 to 12% in FY08

• Stock Market Crash in 2001 and 2002

• Lost 22% of Market Value In 2 Years

• Gap Between Assumptions and Actual Returns Was Nearly 40%

• Contribution Rate Subsidized By Reserves in FY04, FY05 and FY06

• Rate Jumps From 7% in FY04 to 12% in FY08

Page 41: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 41

Retiree Health Benefits ComponentRetiree Health Benefits Component

• Funded on a Pay-As-You-Go Basis• Now Costs 6.55% of Payroll• Unfunded Liability Has Increased Tenfold

Since 1985• Pre-funding and Amortizing Liability Would

Jump the Rate to 15% of Payroll• Under Current Funding Practice

Contribution Rate Will Climb to Over 20% by End of Next Decade

• Funded on a Pay-As-You-Go Basis• Now Costs 6.55% of Payroll• Unfunded Liability Has Increased Tenfold

Since 1985• Pre-funding and Amortizing Liability Would

Jump the Rate to 15% of Payroll• Under Current Funding Practice

Contribution Rate Will Climb to Over 20% by End of Next Decade

Page 42: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 42

Combining Health and Pension Contribution Rates

Combining Health and Pension Contribution Rates

• Rate Jumps From 12.99% in FY04 to 16.34% in FY06 to 20% in FY08

• Incremental Requirement For FY06 Through FY08 Averages More Than $200 Million Per Year ($125 Per Student)

• FY2006 Rate Subsidized With $50 Million of Reserves

• Per Pupil Increase In FY2006---$80 • Total Three-year Increase About $600 Million• Three Years of 3.5% School Aid Revenue

Growth Produces About $450 Million Per Year

• Rate Jumps From 12.99% in FY04 to 16.34% in FY06 to 20% in FY08

• Incremental Requirement For FY06 Through FY08 Averages More Than $200 Million Per Year ($125 Per Student)

• FY2006 Rate Subsidized With $50 Million of Reserves

• Per Pupil Increase In FY2006---$80 • Total Three-year Increase About $600 Million• Three Years of 3.5% School Aid Revenue

Growth Produces About $450 Million Per Year

Page 43: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 43

MPSERS Contribution RatesFiscal Years Ending 1991 Through 2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Fiscal Year Ending

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Pa

yro

ll

Pension

Health Benefit

Total Contribution

Page 44: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 44

Employee Health InsuranceEmployee Health Insurance

• Double-digit Premium Increases Recently

• Schools Spend About $1000 Per Pupil on Health Insurance Premiums

• Annual Increases Around $100 Per Pupil Likely For Next Several Years

• Double-digit Premium Increases Recently

• Schools Spend About $1000 Per Pupil on Health Insurance Premiums

• Annual Increases Around $100 Per Pupil Likely For Next Several Years

Page 45: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 45

Employee Salaries and WagesEmployee Salaries and Wages

• Largest Component of School Budgets

• General Raises and Step Increases Add to Payroll Costs

• Each Percentage Point of Increase in Payrolls Costs About $50 Per Pupil

• Total Payroll Increase of 3% Would Cost About $150 Per Pupil

• Largest Component of School Budgets

• General Raises and Step Increases Add to Payroll Costs

• Each Percentage Point of Increase in Payrolls Costs About $50 Per Pupil

• Total Payroll Increase of 3% Would Cost About $150 Per Pupil

Page 46: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 46

The Numbers—School AidThe Numbers—School Aid

• Revenues Grow About $250 Per Pupil Per Year

• Spending Pressures and “Requirements”

-Retirement and Health Insurance--$225+

-Salaries and Wages (3%)--$150+

• Structural Deficit Exceeds $125 Per Pupil Each Year (Nearly 2%)

• Revenues Grow About $250 Per Pupil Per Year

• Spending Pressures and “Requirements”

-Retirement and Health Insurance--$225+

-Salaries and Wages (3%)--$150+

• Structural Deficit Exceeds $125 Per Pupil Each Year (Nearly 2%)

Page 47: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 47

Structural Deficits Require Structural Changes

Structural Deficits Require Structural Changes

• Expenditures– Retirement Costs—Retiree Health Care– Health Insurance– Change Programs

• Revenues– Broaden Base of Sales and Use Taxes– Eliminate Some Tax Expenditures

• Expenditures– Retirement Costs—Retiree Health Care– Health Insurance– Change Programs

• Revenues– Broaden Base of Sales and Use Taxes– Eliminate Some Tax Expenditures

Page 48: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 48

Who Can Change the Structure?Who Can Change the Structure?

• Influence of School Boards or Local Voters Very Limited

• State Controls Most Financial Policies– Retirement Contributions and Benefits– Tax Rates and Taxable Items– Total Revenue Received By Districts

• Areas of Local Control or Influence– Employee Compensation– Instructional and Other Programs

• Influence of School Boards or Local Voters Very Limited

• State Controls Most Financial Policies– Retirement Contributions and Benefits– Tax Rates and Taxable Items– Total Revenue Received By Districts

• Areas of Local Control or Influence– Employee Compensation– Instructional and Other Programs

Page 49: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 49

Some Policy OptionsThe State

Some Policy OptionsThe State

• State Could Allow Some Local District Taxing Authority

• State Financial Incentives for Inter-district Cooperation and Consolidation

• State “Take-over” of Employee Health Insurance• Modify Retiree Health Benefits and Vesting

Provisions• Change Basic Pension Benefit (Prospectively) to

Defined Contribution Plan

• State Could Allow Some Local District Taxing Authority

• State Financial Incentives for Inter-district Cooperation and Consolidation

• State “Take-over” of Employee Health Insurance• Modify Retiree Health Benefits and Vesting

Provisions• Change Basic Pension Benefit (Prospectively) to

Defined Contribution Plan

Page 50: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 50

Some Policy OptionsLocal Districts

Some Policy OptionsLocal Districts

• Make Greater Use of ISD Services

• Contract (“privatize”) Some Non-instructional Services (e.g. Food Service, Transportation, Custodial)

• Reduce Number of Days in Attendance and Increase Length of Days to Offset Reduction

• Make Greater Use of ISD Services

• Contract (“privatize”) Some Non-instructional Services (e.g. Food Service, Transportation, Custodial)

• Reduce Number of Days in Attendance and Increase Length of Days to Offset Reduction

Page 51: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 51

Responsibility and AuthorityResponsibility and Authority

• Public Education a State Constitutional Responsibility

• Providing Tax Revenues to Pay the Expenses of State Government is a State Constitutional Responsibility

• Legislature and Governor Have Both the Responsibility and Authority to Deal With the Problem

• The Solutions Reside Primarily in Lansing

• Public Education a State Constitutional Responsibility

• Providing Tax Revenues to Pay the Expenses of State Government is a State Constitutional Responsibility

• Legislature and Governor Have Both the Responsibility and Authority to Deal With the Problem

• The Solutions Reside Primarily in Lansing

Page 52: U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 U.P. Education Legislative Summit Marquette, MI September 8, 2005 Michigan’s Financial.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan 52

Citizens Research Council of Michigan

Citizens Research Council of Michigan

CRC Publications Available at

www.crcmich.org

Providing Independent, Nonpartisan Public Policy Research Since 1916

CRC Publications Available at

www.crcmich.org

Providing Independent, Nonpartisan Public Policy Research Since 1916