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![Page 1: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
University of ManchesterOct. 2015
Kevin Anderson
web: kevinanderson.info
The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change
twitter: @KevinClimate
…is economic development possible without fossil fuels?
![Page 2: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Nature Geoscience (doi:10.1038/ngeo2559) Mon. 12th Oct 2015
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Anderson & Bows-LarkinBeyond ‘dangerous climate change
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyJan 2011
“… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare assessment of the scale of the challenge we now face.”
![Page 4: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Latest science reports from the IPCC
Offered no solace to our fossil-fuel hungry world
The mitigation message has changed little in the last twenty five years
![Page 5: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
So what has changed?
200 billion tonnes of CO2 emitted since last IPCC report in 2007
Annual emissions ~60% higher than at time of the first report in 1990
Atmospheric CO2 levels higher than during past 800 thousand years
![Page 6: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
So what has changed?
& importantly
in terms of temperature rise,
explicit recognition it’s carbon budgets that matter,
not long-term (2050) targets
![Page 7: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
We repeatedly recommit to:
… make our fair contribution to…
“To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees
Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent
with science and on the basis of equity”
Copenhagen Accord, 2009
![Page 8: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
My headline conclusion:
Avoiding “dangerous climate change” (stabilisation at 2°C) remains a feasible goal of the international community
Just
![Page 9: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
My hypothesis: to deliver on 2°C
But surely
… we can do it with low-carbon energy supply?
(wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, etc.)
… we need deep & immediate reductions in energy demand
![Page 10: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
My hypothesis: to deliver on 2°C
In 2015, it’s all about timing!
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Thinking about this ‘graphically’
![Page 12: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
R
IO E
arth
Sum
mit
![Page 14: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
R
IO E
arth
Sum
mit
K
yoto
Pro
toco
l ado
pted
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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
R
IO E
arth
Sum
mit
K
yoto
Pro
toco
l ado
pted
K
.P c
omes
into
forc
e
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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
R
IO E
arth
Sum
mit
K
yoto
Pro
toco
l ado
pted
Cop
enha
gen
Acco
rd
K
.P c
omes
into
forc
e
![Page 17: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
R
IO E
arth
Sum
mit
Cop
enha
gen
Acco
rd
Rio
+ 2
0
K
yoto
Pro
toco
l ado
pted
K
.P c
omes
into
forc
e
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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
R
IO E
arth
Sum
mit
Cop
enha
gen
Acco
rd
Rio
+ 2
0 … despite economic downturn, emissions continue to rise 2 to 3% p.a.
K
yoto
Pro
toco
l ado
pted
K
.P c
omes
into
forc
e
![Page 19: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
… & as we build hi-carbon
power stations Infrastructures buildings aircraft & ships
Lock
-in
30
to 1
00
+ y
rs
![Page 20: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
i.e. 4°C to 6°C by 2100
![Page 21: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
Yet for a “likely” chance of
2°C
![Page 22: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
So recent history supports the IEA view
… that the CO2 trend “is perfectly in line with a
temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.”
Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist
![Page 23: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
… but what about 2°C?
![Page 24: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
4°C to 6°C
“likely” chance of 2°C
![Page 25: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
Too early for new
low carbonsupply &
demand
Reduce Demand
Supply
![Page 26: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
But this is a global analysis
& demand
Reduce Demand
Supply
![Page 27: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
& demand
Reduce Demand
Supply
“To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees
Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with
science and on the basis of equity”
![Page 28: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Assuming poorer (non-Annex 1) nations:
1. Collectively peak their emissions by 2025
2. Then rapidly increase mitigation to ~10% p.a. by 2035
![Page 29: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
… then, for 2°C, wealthy (Annex 1) nations require:
At least 10% reduction in emissions year on year from now,
… equivalent to:
40% reduction by ~2018 (c.f. 1990)
70% ~2024
90% ~2030
i.e. RADICAL EMISSION REDUCTIONS
![Page 30: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
If 2°C is too challenging
… what about a 4°C future
![Page 31: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Global impacts: 4°C
+8°C
Europe
+6°C
China
+10-12°C
N. America
Hottest days
… add to heat-wave temps’
![Page 32: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Global impacts: 4°C
Sea level rise50-200cm rise, higher
in low latitudes
![Page 33: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Global impacts: 4°C
Food crops
~40%
reduction in
maize, wheat &
rice yields in low
latitudes
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There is a widespread view that 4°C is… Incompatible with an organised global community
Beyond ‘adaptation’
Devastating to eco-systems
Unlikely to be stable (‘tipping points)
… consequently …
4°C should be avoided at ‘all’ costs
![Page 35: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Returning to 2°C … is it still a viable goal?
![Page 36: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Hypothesis: yes
Equity/behaviour - a small group to make radical & early reductions
Technology - demand side can deliver early & large reductions
Growth - there are alternative measures of a good life
… just
![Page 37: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Equity: Pareto’s 80:20 rule
80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved
~80% of emissions from ~20% of population
run this 3 times
~50% of emissions from ~1% of population
Or more realistically:
~40% to 60% from ~1% to 5%
![Page 38: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
who are the high-emitters?
Climate scientists OECD (& other) academics Anyone who annually takes a long-haul flight or two …
2°C mitigation is principally a short-term challenge;
i.e. really now to 2025 - so is mostly about the few not the many
… it is a consumption and not a population issue!
![Page 39: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Technology
Efficient petrol/diesel cars
A++ refrigerators
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EU & US ~12-15% of emissions Sector’s emissions claimed to be intractable ~270 petrol/diesel models <100gCO2/km
… at no price premium
2/3 of car travel is by vehicles 8yrs old or younger
Private road transport (Cars)
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So in this ‘intractable’ sector:
- With no additional capital cost- Reduced operating cost- Identical infrastructure- Same employment & companies
50% to 70% reduction in ~10yrs
Standards & existing petrol/diesel cars
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A++ refrigerator uses 80% less energy than an A rated
Phased replacement of all A-rated (& below) with A++
CO2 saving of ~60% in 10 years
Refrigeration
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Welfare: health, life expectancy
Literacy rates
Employment/income
Safety & security
Equity; time with family & friend's
Growth converts the heterogeneous into the homogeneous (£,€,HUF)
In itself it has no meaningful value
Growth: but what really matters?
![Page 44: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Growth: a misguided proxy?
the economist’s economy has stalled!
self-regulated markets have failed to self regulate
Faced with systemic issues
- neoclassical (‘free’ market) economics is in disarray
- incremental approaches to climate change have not delivered
We have an unprecedented opportunity to think differently
![Page 45: University of Manchester Oct. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070413/5697bf991a28abf838c918d9/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
A Radical Plan for 2°C – 2 phases
1. Radical reductions in energy demand from now to ~2030
2. Marshall plan build programme of low-carbon energy supply
… with 100% penetration by 2030-40
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We must escape the reductionist shackles of a twentieth century
mind-set if we’re ever to resolve the systemic challenges of the
twenty-first century
This will demand leadership, courage, innovative thinking, engaged
teams & difficult choices
Ultimately …
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“at every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that it could be different.”
Robert Unger
and a message of hope to finish …
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Thank you
University of Manchester Oct. 2015
Kevin Anderson
web: kevinanderson.info
twitter: @KevinClimate