PewInternet.org

Universities in 2020: A technology perspective

Virginia Tech Task ForceJanuary 28, 2011Lee Rainie: Director, Pew Internet ProjectEmail: Lrainie@pewinternet.org

Eli Noam 1995 to AAAS

• Creation of knowledge and evaluation of its validity

• Preservation of information• Transmission of information to

others

Some big questions for universities• What’s the franchise? What’s the commodity?

– What “business” are we in? Who are our “competitors”?• How should knowledge and teaching be organized?

– How do we foster cross-discipline collaboration? • What teaching is best done in physical space? What can be

done virtually? – What are the correct social / pedagogical norms of those spaces?

• How should intellectual property be handled when “napsterization” looms over every idea?

• What new knowledge forms and distribution platforms merit attention and reward?

4

Internet and Broadband Revolution

Undergrad - 98% Grad – 99.5% Comm/Coll - 94%

70% 66%

Undergrad - 89% Grad – 94% Comm/Coll - 71%

Consequences for info ecosystem

Volume Velocity

Vibrance Valence /Relevance

Consequences for info ecosystem

Explosion of creators and niches

10

Wireless Connectivity Revolution

Cell phone owners – 85% adults

Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

All adults Ages 18-29 Ages 30-49 Ages 50-64 Age 65+

96% 90% 85%

58%

Undergrad - 96% Grad – 99.2% Comm/Coll - 94%

Mobile internet connectors – 57% adults

Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

All adults Whites Blacks Hispanics

62% 59% 55%

Undergrad - 92% Grad – 88% Comm/Coll - 84%

Consequences for info ecosystem

Anywhere Any device

Presence Place

Any time

Alone together

15

Social Networking Revolution

Undergrad - 86% Grad – 82% Comm/Coll - 79%

Consequences for info ecosystem

Social dashboard Pervasive awareness

So what for higher ed? (1)Changed info ecology for networked learners

Attention zonesContinuous

partial attentionDeep divesInfo-snacking

Media zonesSocialImmersiveStreamsCreative /

participatoryStudy / work

So what for higher ed (2)Social networks play a more important role for info

and knowledge acquisition

• As sentries – word of mouth matters more– Shift in attention awakening

• As information evaluators – they vouch for/discredit information– Shift in expertise assignment

• As forums for action – everybody’s a broadcaster/publisher/critic/cheerleader– Shift in influencer arrangement

June 25, 2010 20

So what for higher ed (3) New literacies are required

- screen literacy - graphics and symbols - navigation literacy - connections and context literacy - skepticism - value of contemplative time - how to create content/knowledge - personal information literacy - ethical behavior in new world

Upheaval 1 -- Gadgets and interfaces

Changes underway

Voice, smart/semantic web, translation, natural language search, projectors, screens, wearable devices make information ….

Pew Internet danah boyd– pervasive - persistent– portable - replicable– personal - scalable– participatory - searchable

COLLAPSED CONTEXTS

October 22, 2010 23July 9, 2010 23

Are hot future gadgets evident now?

Hot gadgets and apps that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 will often come “out of the blue” and not have been anticipated by many of today’s savviest innovators.

81% experts

The hot gadgets and applications that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 are pretty evident today and will not take many of today’s savviest innovators by surprise.

16% experts

Upheaval 2 – The metaverse

The virtual world merges with real world

• Metaverse Roadmap: The internet of things enhances the internet of people– Augmented reality– Mirror worlds– Life logging – Virtual worlds

Upheaval 3 – The exaflood

Age of big data and “the internet of things” – 50 billion connected devices by 2020?

• Exabyte: 1 billion gigabytes (1018 )– 2002: 5 exabytes of info on entire internet– 2010: 21 exabytes pass on internet per month

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Networked learners of the future

• More self directed and less dependent on top-down instructions

• Better arrayed to capture new information inputs• More reliant on feedback and response• More attuned to group outreach and group

knowledge• More open to cross discipline insights, creating their

own “tagged” taxonomies• More oriented towards people being their own

individual nodes of production

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Thank you!

Lee RainieDirector – Pew Internet ProjectLrainie@pewinternet.orgTwitter - @lrainie202-419-4500