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UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA
A SYSTEM DYNAMICS INVESTIGATION OF EMPLOYMENT IN THE
IRANIAN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
MOHAMMAD HASHEM MOOSAVI HAGHIGHI
FP 2007 11
A SYSTEM DYNAMICS INVESTIGATION OF EMPLOYMENT IN THE IRANIAN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
By
MOHAMMAD HASHEM MOOSAVI HAGHIGHI
Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, in Fulfilment of the Requirement for the Degree of Doctor
Philosophy
August 2007
ii
Dedications
To my wife, father, mother and sons,
Mohammad Reza and Parsa who have
supported me throughout in this study.
iii
iv
Abstract of thesis presented to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia in fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor Philosophy
A SYSTEM DYNAMICS INVESTIGATION OF EMPLOYMENT IN THE IRANIAN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
By
MOHAMMAD HASHEM MOOSAVI HAGHIGHI
August 2007
Chairman: Professor Mad Nasir Shamsudin, PhD
Faculty: Agriculture
Agriculture is an important economic sector and a strategic component for
rural development in Iran. The sector contributed about 15% of the country‟s
value added in 2005, and created 23% of the total employment in 2004.
However, the sector is basseted with a labour surplus situation as indicated
by the high labour/ land ratio. This situation, together with inappropriate
combination of labour with other factors of production, has caused a low
level of labour productivity, and hence, low growth rate in the agricultural
sector. Thus, the general objective of this study is to determine the optimal
employment and production policies in the agricultural sector of Iran.
Whereas, the specific objectives are to estimate the econometric models of
the Iranian agricultural sector to determine the production and other
relationship in the System Dynamics (SD) model; to develop a SD model
and identify the relationship among the socio-economic variables in the
agricultural sector of Iran for simulating the future trend of employment and
production; and to simulate the SD model pertaining to different scenarios.
v
This study employed the econometric methods and SD simulation model by
incorporating the dynamic changes of the socio-economic variables.
Econometric methods provide representations of the system in equations.
Production, export-import, demand for labour and agricultural products, as
well as the wage functions were estimated using data collected over 35
years, and substituted in the economic component of the SD model.
A dynamic demand for the labour equation incorporating a Disequilibrium
Costs (DC) and Adjustment Costs (AC) was estimated from 1966/67 to
2000/01. The results indicated significant relationships between
employment, production, wages and cross-price elasticity on labour demand.
This suggests that the adjustment co-efficient was too slow (0.044) since AC
was higher than DC, and the existent of substitution relation between the
capital and labour, and the war which had negative effects on the agricultural
labour demand.
The exchange rate variable had the expected sign in the export and import
functions. The per capita income in the „Organization for Economic Co-
operation and Development‟ (OECD) countries, had a positive sign in the
export equation. The agricultural price index and agricultural production had
respectively negative and positive effect on the agricultural export. On the
other hand, outcomes of the war and Islamic Revolution on the agricultural
export were negative. In the import equation, the national income per capita
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had a positive effect, while the real exchange rate had a negative effect on
the agricultural import.
Analysis on the results of the production functions confirms the priori
expectation that the Iranian agricultural sector is facing low marginal product.
The capital and land were also found to be scarce resources, and have
imposed a gradual binding constraint on the production. The Return to
Scale (RTS) before the materialization of the Islamic Revolution was positive
(1.87), but turned to negative after that event (-1.74). The Pure Technical
Change (PTC) has increased over the time (0.30 to 0.43), while the Non-
Neutral Technical Change (NNTC) has declined (-0.35 to -0.39). Obviously,
the results of production functions reveal that the production technology of
the Iranian agriculture does not have a well-behaved quality. The overall
results suggest that policy makers should reduce the labour force in the
agricultural sector, and improve the capital-intensive methods in order to
simultaneously increase the output and productivity of the sector.
In developing the SD model of the Iranian agriculture, the specifications of
the estimated equations are substituted in the SD model to specify some
relationships between a number of important variables. However, other
mathematical formulations are also used to build the SD model. The validity
of the model was done based on several tests such as error checking,
dimensional consistency, behaviour reproduction, sensitivity analysis,
extreme condition, boundary adequacy, structure assessment, parameter
assessment, and integration error tests. The results of all tests indicated that
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the ability of the SD model to simulate agricultural sector was acceptable.
The brief results of SD model are as follows:
The rural population showed a collapse behaviour type during the 1998-2021
period. The rural population is a source of agricultural supply. The results of
the SD model simulation indicate that a turnpike for the labour surplus
problem will happen in 2008. After that period, the agricultural employment
will decline gradually per year. Hence, it can be stated that the labour
surplus problem automatically declines in the mid-term period. On the other
hand, the rate of migration from the rural to the urban areas will increase and
consequently move the unemployment problem from the rural to the urban
areas.
The results of the simulated agricultural production indicate that the average
production growth rate in 2007-2021 is about 2% per year. According to the
development plan, the real growth rate in the whole economy should
increase 8.6% annually. Obviously, this shows that the growth rate in the
agricultural sector is not much over the future time with the country‟s goals
and production in the period (2007-2021) need more consideration. In
supporting the increment in production, the increase in inputs (especially
land and capital) is needed. When these increases in the process of
production are successful, they have been accompanied with the
improvement in the overall technical change.
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Based on the SD simulation model for the period of 2006-2021; the results
indicated that rural population, export, and employment would decline (35%,
21%, and 30%, respectively) while the rural emigration, labour and
agricultural demands, production, capital, and import would also increase
(116%, 21%, 43%, 32%, 102%, and 193%, respectively).
The major policy implications from the study suggest that if the government
could increase arable land by providing improvement in the irrigation system,
reduce labour in order to decrease labour/land ratio, improvement in the
overall technological methods (PTC and NNTC), these efforts would
considerably improve the agricultural productivity. When the government
changes the market factors such as the agricultural price index, real
exchange rate, worker wage, they will have great effects on the employment,
but only a small effect on the production. The overall results of study
demonstrate the way to combine the different methodologies, i.e., the SD
and econometrics, to be further effective.
Keywords: System Dynamics Simulation, Socio-Economic Model, Agricultural Labour,
Production Functions, Dynamic Demand for Labour, Export-Import Functions, Agricultural
Demand
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Abstrak tesis yang dikemukakan kepada Senat Universiti Putra Malaysia sebagai memenuhi keperluan untuk ijazah Doktor Falsafah
KAJIAN MENGGUNAKAN SISTEM DINAMIK KE ATAS PELUANG PEKERJAAN DALAM PENGELUARAN PERTANIAN IRAN
Oleh
MOHAMMAD HASHEM MOOSAVI HAGHIGHI
Ogos 2007
Pengerusi : Professor Dr. Mad Nasir Shamsudin, PhD
Fakulti : Pertanian
Pertanian merupakan sektor ekonomi yang penting dan juga komponen
strategik untuk pembangunan luar bandar di Iran. Sektor pertanian
menyumbangkan 15% nilai tambah negara pada 2005, dan mewujudkan
23% peluang pekerjaan pada 2004. Walaubagaimanapun, sektor tersebut
dibebani dengan situasi lebihan tenaga kerja seperti yang ditunjukkan oleh
nisbah tenaga kerja/tanah yang tinggi. Situasi ini, disertakan dengan
kombinasi tenaga kerja dan faktor-faktor pengeluaran lain yang tidak
bersesuaian telah menyebabkan tahap produktiviti tenaga kerja yang rendah
dan seterusnya mengakibatkan kadar pertumbuhan yang rendah dalam
sektor pertanian. Oleh itu, objektif am kajian ini adalah untuk menentukan
polisi-polisi pekerjaan optima dan pengeluaran dalam sektor pertanian Iran.
Objektif spesifik adalah untuk menganggarkan model-model ekonometrik
sektor pertanian Iran untuk menentukan pengeluaran dan hubungan lain di
dalam model Sistem Dinamik (SD); untuk membangunkan model SD dan
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mengenalpasti hubungan antara angkubah-angkubah sosio-ekonomi di
dalam sektor pertanian Iran untuk mensimulasikan aliran peluang pekerjaan
dan pengeluaran masa hadapan; dan untuk mensimulasikan model SD
dengan senario-senario yang berbeza.
Kajian ini menggunakan kaedah-kaedah ekonometrik dan model simulasi
SD dengan menggabungkan perubahan-perubahan dinamik angkubah-
angkubah sosio-ekonomi. Kaedah-kaedah ekonometrik mewakili sistem di
dalam bentuk persamaan - persamaan. Pengeluaran, eksport-import,
permintaan untuk tenaga kerja dan produk-produk pertanian, dan juga
fungsi-fungsi upah yang dianggarkan dengan menggunakan data yang
dikumpul selama 35 tahun, dan menggantikan komponen ekonomi dalam
model SD.
Permintaan dinamik untuk persamaan tenaga kerja menggabungkan kos
tidak seimbang (DC) dan kos penyelarasan (AC) yang dianggarkan dari
tahun 1996/97 sehingga 2000/01. Keputusan kajian menunjukkan hubungan
yang signifikan di antara peluang pekerjaan, pengeluaran, upah keanjalan
harga silang dalam permintaan tenaga kerja. Ini menunjukkan bahawa
penyelarasan ko-efisien adalah terlalu rendah (0.044) memandangkan AC
lebih tinggi dari DC, wujudnya hubungan penggantian di antara modal dan
tenaga kerja dan kesan negatif perang terhadap permintaan tenaga kerja
untuk pertanian.
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Angkubah pertukaran sebenar mempunyai tanda yang dijangkakan dalam
fungsi eksport dan import. Pendapatan per kapita dalam negara-negara
Kesatuan Kerjasama Ekonomi dan Pembangunan (OECD) mempunyai
tanda yang positif dalam persamaan eksport. Indeks harga pertanian dan
pengeluaran pertanian masing-masing mempunyai kesan yang positif dan
negatif ke atas eksport pertanian. Namun begitu, kesan dari perang dan
revolusi Islam mempunyai kesan yang negatif ke atas eksport pertanian.
Dalam persamaan import, pendapatan per kapita negara mempunyai kesan
yang positif, manakala kadar pertukaran sebenar mempunyai kesan yang
negatif ke atas import pertanian.
Analisis ke atas keputusan-keputusan fungsi-fungsi pengeluaran
mengesahkan tanggapan awal bahawa sektor pertanian Iran menghadapi
produk marginal yang rendah. Modal dan tanah merupakan sumber-sumber
tidak mencukupi dan menyebabkan kekangan ke atas. Pulangan pada skala
(RTC) sebelum berlakunya Revolusi Islam adalah positif (1.87) tetapi
menjadi negatif selepas revolusi tersebut (-1.74). Perubahan teknikal tulen
(PTC) telah meningkat (0.30 kepada 0.43) manakala perubahan teknikal
tidak neutral (NNTC) telah menurun (-0.35 kepada -0.39). Secara amnya,
keputusan-keputusan dari fungsi-fungsi pengeluaran menunjukkan bahawa
teknologi pengeluaran pertanian Iran tidak mempunyai kualiti yang baik.
Keputusan keseluruhan mencadangkan bahawa pembentuk dasar patut
mengurangkan tenaga kerja dalam sektor pertanian, dan memperbaiki
kaedah-kaedah intensif modal untuk meningkatkan hasil pengeluaran dan
produktiviti sektor secara serentak.
xii
Dalam membangunkan model SD pertanian Iran, spesifikasi-spesifikasi
dalam persamaan-persamaan yang telah dianggarkan digantikan ke dalam
model SD untuk menentukan hubungan-hubungan di antara beberapa
angkubah yang penting. Walaubagaimanapun, formulasi-formulasi matenatik
juga turut digunakan untuk membangunkan model SD. Kesahan model
tersebut telah dilakukan berdasarkan beberapa ujian seperti pemeriksaan
kesilapan, konsistensi dimensi, tingkahlaku reproduksi, analisis sensitiviti,
keadaan ekstrem, kebolehcukupan sempadan, penilaian struktur, penilaian
parameter dan ujian ralat integrasi. Keputusan-keputusan ujian
menunjukkan bahawa kemampuan model SD untuk mensimulasikan sektor
pertanian diterima. Keputusan-keputusan model SD adalah seperti berikut:
Populasi luar bandar telah menunjukkan perubahan gelagat dari tahun 1998-
2021. Populasi luar bandar merupakan sumber penawaran pertanian.
Keputusan dari simulasi model SD menunjukkan bahawa masalah lebihan
penawaran tenaga kerja akan berlaku pada tahun 2008. Kemudian, peluang
pekerjaan dalam bidang pertanian akan menurun secara perlahan-lahan
setiap tahun. Oleh yang demikian, masalah lebihan tenaga kerja akan
menurun secara automatik di pertengahan jangkamasa tersebut. Namun
begitu, kadar migrasi dari kawasan luar bandar ke kawasan bandar akan
meningkat dan sekaligus menyebabkan masalah pengangguran berubah
dari kawasan luar bandar ke bandar.
Keputusan dari simulasi pengeluaran pertanian menunjukkan bahawa purata
kadar pertumbuhan pengeluaran pada 2007-2021 ialah sebanyak 2% per
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tahun. Berdasarkan pada pelan pembangunan, kadar pertumbuhan sebenar
dalam keseluruhan ekonomi sepatutnya meningkat 8.6% setiap tahun.
Secara kasarnya, ini menunjukkan bahawa kadar pertumbuhan dalam sektor
pertanian adalah tidak sejajar dengan matlamat negara dan pengeluaran
pada jangkamasa tersebut (2007-2021) memerlukan lebih pertimbangan.
Dalam usaha menyokong peningkatan dalam pengeluaran, peningkatan
dalam input (terutamanya tanah dan modal) diperlukan. Apabila peningkatan
dalam proses pengeluaran ini berjaya maka ia akan disertai oleh kemajuan
dalam keseluruhan perubahan teknikal.
Berdasarkan model simulasi SD dari tahun 2006-2021, hasil kajian
menunjukkan bahawa populasi luar bandar, eksport dan peluang pekerjaan
akan menurun (35%, 21% dan 30% masing-masing) manakala emigrasi luar
bandar, permintaan tenaga kerja dan pertanian, pengeluaran, modal dan
import akan meningkat (116%, 21%, 43%, 32%, 102%, and 193% masing-
masing).
Implikasi polisi yang utama dari kajian ini mencadangkan jika kerajaan dapat
menambahkan tanah yang sesuai untuk dibajak dengan membekalkan
pembaikan dalam sistem pengairan, mengurangkan tenaga kerja untuk
mengurangkan nisbah tenaga kerja/tanah, pembaikan dalam kaedah
teknologi secara keseluruhan (PTC dan NNTC), usaha-usaha ini dianggap
akan dapat meningkatkan produktiviti pertanian. Apabila kerajaan mengubah
faktor-faktor pasaran seperti indeks harga pertanian, kadar tukaran wang
asing, upah pekerja di mana ianya akan mempunyai kesan yang besar
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terhadap pekerjaan tetapi kesan yang kecil ke atas pengeluaran. Keputusan
dari kajian ini secara amnya menunjukkan cara untuk menggabungkan
kaedah-kaedah yang berbeza seperti SD dan ekonometrik, untuk menjadi
lebih berkesan.
Kata kunci: Simulasi sistem dinamik, model sosio-ekonomi, tenaga kerja pertanian , fungsi-
fungsi pengeluaran, permintaan dinamik tenaga kerja, fungsi-fungsi eksport-import,
permintaan pertanian
xv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
All praises to the Almighty Allah, the Most Gracious and Merciful, who is
omnipresent, for giving me the strength and determination to complete this
study. No words can express adequately my sense of indebtedness yet I feel
I shall be failing in my obligation if I do not put on record my gratitude to the
following persons:
I am deeply indebted to Prof. Dr. Mad Nasir Shamsudin, Department of
Agribusiness and Information System, Universiti Putra Malaysia, as the
chairman of supervisory committee who, provided valuable guidance in all
aspects of the research process. Special thanks are also due to my
supervisory committee members, Associate Prof. Dr. Zainal Abidin
Mohamed, and Dr. Norsida Man for sharing their time and ideas, comments
and advice on developing and reporting this research and for serving as
members of my committee.
I wish to express my special thanks to Dr. Mansoor Zibaei and Prof. Dr
Seeyd Ahang Kowsar, Dr Amini, Mr. Amir Khalesi, Mr Amir Bahaman
Hassan Agahei, Mr. Akbarpoor, Mr. Masoud Fanni, Mr. Ali Fanni, Mr.
Dastbala, Dr. Badjian, Dr. Rahimi Soorahe, Dr. Bostaki, Mr. Arabkhedri and
Mr. Sharam Karimi for their support I will never forget. It is also my pleasure
to thank all the lecturers and staff at the Department of Agribusiness and
Information System, Faculty of Agriculture, UPM for their guidance and
support throughout my study.
xvi
I would like to thank Dr. Mehrdad Mohammadnia, Mr. Nejabat and all
members of Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Centre of Fars
province for their support. My thanks are also to my colleagues Ms. Golnaz
Rezai, Majid Sanai from Iran and Dr. Abudulla Faraha from Somalia. Special
thanks to my Iranian friends and their family (in Malaysia) whom I will never
forget.
I want to express thanks to my dear wife for her love, and my Father,
Mother, Sisters, and Sons for moral support and their long patience. Finally I
want to express my special deep thanks and appreciation to Mr. Kerammat
Mohammadnia, who helped me in one way or the other during my absence
from Iran.
xvii
I certify that an Examination Committee met on 9th August 2007 to conduct the final examination of Mohammad Hashem Moosavi Haghighi on his of Doctor Philosophy thesis entitled “A System Dynamics Investigation of Employment in the Iranian Agricultural Production” in accordance with Universiti Pertanian Malaysia (Higher Degree) Act 1980 and Universiti Pertanian Malaysia (Higher Degree) Regulation 1981. The Committee recommends that the candidate be awarded the relevant degree. Members of the Examination Committee are as follows: Nitty Hirawaty Kamarulzaman, PhD Lecturer Faculty of Agriculture Universiti Putra Malaysia (Chairman) Mohd Mansor Ismail, PhD Associate Professor Faculty of Agriculture Universiti Putra Malaysia (Internal Examiner) Amin Mahir Abdullah, PhD Lecturer Faculty of Agriculture Universiti Putra Malaysia (Internal Examiner) Mohd Fauzi Mohd Jani, PhD Professor Faculty of Economic and Management Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (External Examiner)
_________________________
HASANAH MOHD. GHAZALI Professor/Deputy Dean
School of Graduate Studies Universiti Putra Malaysia
Date:
xviii
This thesis submitted to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia and has been accepted as fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. The members of the Supervisory Committee are as follows: Mad Nasir Shamsudin, PhD Professor Faculty of Agriculture Universiti Putra Malaysia (Chairman) Zainal Abidin Mohamed, PhD Associate Professor Faculty of Agriculture Universiti Putra Malaysia (Member) Norsida Man, PhD Lecturer Faculty of Agriculture Universiti Putra Malaysia (Member)
_______________________
AINI IDERIS, PhD Professor/Dean School of Graduate Studies Universiti Putra Malaysia Date:
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DECLARATION
I hereby declare that this thesis is based on my original work except for quotations and citations, which have been duly acknowledged. I also declare that it has not been previously or concurrently submitted for any other degree at UPM or other institutions.
_______________________________________
MOHAMMAD HASHEM MOOSAVI HAGHIGHI
Date:
xix
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page DEDICATION ii ABSTRACT iii
ABSTRAK viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xiv APPROVAL xvi
DECLARATION xviii TABLE OF CONTENTS xix LIST OF TABLES xxii
LIST OF FIGURES xxvi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xxxiii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Iranian Agricultural Sector 1.1 1.2 Issues and Challenges 1.6 1.2.1 Agricultural Production 1.6 1.2.2 Agricultural Employment 1.7 1.2.3 Population and Migration 1.9 1.2.4 Employment and Production Clash 1.11 1.2.5 Rural Unemployment 1.14 1.2.6 Labour Surplus Problem 1.16 1.2.7 Land Resources 1.19 1.3 Issues and Challenges in Perspective 1.20 1.4 Problem Statement 1.23 1.5 Objective of the Study 1.25 1.6 Significance of the Study 1.26
2 BACKGROUND OF THE IRANIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
2.1 Agricultural Production 2.4 2.2 Agricultural Employment 2.8 2.3 Resources 2.10 2.3.1 Water Resources 2.10 2.3.2 Agricultural Soil and Land Resources 2.12 2.3.3 Forest 2.13 2.3.4 Rangelands 2.14 2.3.5 Livestock and Poultry 2.15 2.3.6 Fishery and Aquatics 2.16 2.4 Conclusion 2.17 3 LITERATURE REVIEW 3.1 Econometric Models 3.1 3.1.1 Production Functions 3.2 3.1.2 Demand for Labour Functions 3.7
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3.1.3 Export and Import Functions 3.11 3.2 System Dynamics Models Studies Outside Iran 3.16 3.2.1 Industrial and Economic Dynamic Models 3.18 3.2.2 Limits to Growth Models 3.18 3.2.3 Management: Firm and Market Models 3.19 3.2.4 Decision-Making Models 3.19 3.2.5 Socio-Economic Models 3.21 3.2.6 Economic and Agricultural Economic Models 3.26 3.3 System Dynamics Models Studies in Iran 3.31 4 METHODOLOGY 4.1 Production Functions 4.1 4.1.1 Production Function Selection 4.10 4.2 Dynamic Demand for Labour 4.17 4.3 Export and Import Functions 4.22 4.4 Demand for Agricultural Products 4.25 4.5 Wage Function 4.27 4.6 Unit Root Test 4.28 4.7 System Dynamics 4.31 4.7.1 System 4.32 4.7.2 Simulation 4.33 4.7.3 System Dynamics Model 4.37 4.7.4 Usefulness of System Dynamics Simulation
Models 4.43
4.7.5 Step in a System Dynamics Simulation Model 4.46 4.7.6 Socio-Economic Model for the Agricultural
Sector of Iran 4.72
4.7.7 Data Sources 4.78 5 ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS 5.1 Unit Root Test (Stationary Test) 5.1 5.2 Estimated Econometrics Functions 5.6 5.2.1 The Production 5.9 5.2.2 The Dynamic Demand for the Agricultural
Labour 5.31
5.2.3 The Export and Import Functions 5.32 5.2.4 The Demand for the Agricultural Products 5.34 5.2.5 The Agricultural Wage Function 5.35 5.3 System Dynamics Model Validity 5.37 5.3.1 Error Checking Tests 5.38 5.3.2 Dimension Test 5.39 5.3.3 Behaviour Reproduction Tests 5.40 5.3.4 Sensitivity Analysis 5.62 5.3.5 Extreme Condition Test 5.82 5.4 System Dynamics Policy Optimization 5.97 5.4.1 Policy-Makers Optimization 5.100 5.4.2 Payoff Optimization 5.121
xxi
6 CONCLUSIONS 6.1 Summary of Findings 6.1 6.1.1 Estimated Econometric Functions 6.3 6.1.2 System Dynamics Model 6.8 6.2 Policy Implications 6.18 6.3 Limitation of the Study and Recommendations
for Future Research 6.26
REFERENCES APPENDICES BIODATA OF THE AUTHOR
R.1 A.1 B.1
xxii
LIST OF TABLES Table Page
1.1 Total Value Added and the Value Added of the Four Main Sectors of Iran (Billion Rial, 1990=100)
1.4
1.2
Total Population Separated into Rural and Urban Areas
(Million People)
1.10
1.3 Employment and Value Added in the Agricultural Sector of Iran 1.11
1.4 The Rates of Unemployment in the Rural and Urban Areas 1.15
2.1
Production, Imports and Consumption of Some Major Commodities, 1985 and 1995 (Million Tones)
2.5
2.2 Place of Iran Among the First 10 Countries, Based on the Variations of Garden Products
2.6
2.3 The Rank of Some Iranian Farming and Garden Products in the World
2.7
2.4 A Comparison Between the GDP Growth Rate and the Annual Labour Productivity of Selected Countries
2.9
2.5 Rainfall in the Major Basins in Iran 2.11
2.6 Status of Underground Water Resources in Iran 2.12
2.7 Areas of Different Classes in Soil-Recognized Lands in Iran 2.13
2.8 Area and Share of Iran Forests 2.14
2.9 The Status of Rangelands in Iran 2.15
4.1 Mathematical Formulations for the Eight Functional Forms, Marginal Products (MPi) and Elasticities (Ei)
4.9
4.2 Initial Component List of Variables 4.56
5.1 Unit Root Test for Production Functions Variables 5.2
5.2 Unit Root Test for Export, Import, Dynamic Demand for Labour, Demand for Agricultural Products and Wage Function Variables
5.3
5.3 Unit Root Test for the Residuals of Econometrics Functions 5.6
xxiii
5.4 Results of the Estimation of Linear, Polynomial, CD, CES and Transcendental Production Functions for the Agricultural Sector of Iran
5.10
5.5 Results of the Estimation of Translog, Generalized Quadratic and Generalized Leontief Production Functions
5.11
5.6 Elasticities Calculated from the Non-Flexible (Ordinary) Production Functions
5.13
5.7 Elasticities Calculated from the Flexible Production Functions 5.14
5.8 Marginal Products Calculated from the Non-flexible (Ordinary) Production Functions
5.17
5.9 Marginal Products Calculated from the Flexible Production Functions
5.18
5.10 Number of Significant Coefficients and Results of the Jarque-Bera Normality Test
5.20
5.11 Ramsey‟s Test 5.21
5.12 Likelihood Ratio Test 5.24
5.13 Marginal Product of the Translog Production Function with Technological Change over Different Time Periods
5.26
5.14 Elasticities and Return to Scale over the Different Time Periods (Calculated from the TWTC Function)
5.28
5.15 Decomposition Rate of the Technical Change in the PTC and NNTC in the Agricultural Sector of Iran
5.30
5.16 Results of the Estimation Dynamic Demand Function for the Agricultural Labour
5.31
5.17 Results of the Estimation Agricultural Export Function 5.33
5.18 Results of the Estimation Agricultural Import Function 5.34
5.19 Results of the Estimation Demand for Agricultural Products 5.35
5.20 Results of the Estimation Agricultural Wage Function 5.36
5.21 Statistical Validation Tests for the Rural Population (Thousand People)
5.42