SOUTHERN AFRICAN TRANSPORT CONFERENCEPreliminary findings:UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME – SHARE THE ROADGLOBAL NMT POLICY REPORT

6 JULY 2016PRETORIA SOUTH AFRICA

01 INTRODUCTION

• Why do countries need NMT policies or commitments?

• What makes a good NMT policy?

• Is there a correlation between policies and safety?

• Do policies lead to safer roads? More NMT?

• Why does change seem slow?

02 METHODS

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OUR STUDY• Our focus – developing and emerging countries /

economies• Mode shares of up to 80% NMT• Marginal NMT recognition - whether in policy and

legislation, or in budget, resource and space allocation

• Worst global road safety record• Pedestrians and cyclists most at risk

OUR OUTPUT• Index or matrix: correlating NMT commitment with

NMT safety/performance• Narrative analysis, 200 page report• 30 countries: Asia, Africa, Latin America and

Europe (for ref)

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Excluded from our study: Universal design (a study on its own)

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KEY QUESTIONS• What is the level of NMT commitment within the

countries surveyed?• How comprehensive are these NMT

commitments?• What are the core thematic gaps within the

documentation?• Are NMT users safer in countries with high levels

of NMT commitments?• Is there a link between countries with significant

NMT commitment and countries undergoing BRT / public transport transformation in any way?

• Can we tentatively propose a link at all between the existence of significant NMT commitment and a better NMT environment?

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OUR METHOD

• Literature review - what makes a good NMT policy?

• Interviews / online survey – mailed to around 200 selected (and snowball sampled) people; plus expert input and additional research

• Questions geared to asses NMT Commitment plus NMT performance (mode share, safety, etc)

• Weighting of indicators (pair-wise comparison by expert team)

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A course or principle of action adopted or proposed by a government, party, business, or individual.

Synonyms: plans, strategy, approach, system, guidelines…

WHAT IS AN NMT COMMITMENT?

03 FINDINGS

LITERATURE REVIEW• Combination of

standalone &integrated NMT policies

• Political will• Clear, measurable

goals and objectives• Fine-grained local

strategies• A variety of

supporting policies• Traffic calming or speed-

and vehicle-reduction interventions

• Civil society involvement

OVERALL, countries have made a start

There is national recognition of NMT as a mode.Not yet sufficient:• Funding• Political will & deep-

seated belief in NMT modes

• Supporting policies• Local action plans• Monitoring, verification,

evaluation• Technical knowledge

(infrastructure)

• NMT is overwhelmingly the major mode

• Bicycle transport is a minor mode in Africa - with exception of Zambia and Malawi (up to 90% of traffic on rural roads)

• Cycle rickshaw traffic a major mode in India and Bangladesh (up to 35%)

MODE SHARE

• A significant risk(we can’t talk about NMT being a ‘healthy’ mode in our surveyed countries…)

• In Malawi for eg, 70% of crashes involve pedestrians or cyclists

• Facilities seldom provided

RISK

LEVEL OF NMT COMMITMENT• Every country surveyed

had at least one national NMT commitment (minor to significant)

• Uganda, SA, Mexico, Argentina – standalone national NMT policies

DEPTH OF COMMITMENT

• Broad, general statements (eg putting people first)

Themes• Stating benefits of NMT• Stating challenges• Ideological statements – eg

access and equity• Focus on women• Importance of inter-

modality• Purchase assistance• Commitment to build

facilities

LOCAL NMT COMMITMENT• Effective NMT

action is at local level. • India, SA & Brazil req

cities develop NMT plans• Other cities in Ghana,

Namibia, Argentina and Kenya > local NMT plans

• Few differentiate btwn walking &cycling planning: Cape Town, Medellin, Sao Paulo, Delhi

•Public transportimprovement,transformation orrestructuring programmes appear to play an important role in raising awareness within government about the value of NMT (as cost-effective feeder modes, for eg) and at times offer a vehicle for infrastructure funding.

PUBLIC TRANSPORT

CONCERNS & GAPS• Poor monitoring,

verification, evaluation• Few able to quantify,

measure or track goals or ‘promises’

• Mostly measure outputs, not outcomes and impacts

• Few policies translated into action-oriented, measurable strategies

• Santiago (Chile) and Nairobi (Kenya) notable exceptions

BICYCLE INFRASTRUCTURE• Most countries do

not evaluate or re-asses facilities.

• Every country that has done so (university orfunder request), found them to be poor quality, in the wrong place, dangerous or otherwise lacking:

• South Africa (Cape Town)• Brazil (Curitiba and Rio)• Ghana, Accra• Uganda (Kampala)• Nepal (Kathmandu).

BEHAVIOUR CHANGE• Few cities, countries or

regions plan beyondinfrastructure,facilities or ‘improved enforcement’ – paying little attention to the nuances of behaviour change – withthe exception of Windhoek, Namibia.

SUBSTANTIVE DATA GAPS Little comparable data Few respondents able to provide:• Analysis of user needs• Mode share or fatality data• Database of infrastructure• Disaggregated NMT data • Risk ratio, motorization,

trip rates, etc• Policy details

• .

CIVIL SOCIETY Almost all involvebicycle transport, not walking Why? Perhaps:• More expensive to buy,

need assistance• Possibilities for micro-

enterprise • Facilitates greater levels of

mobility (longer trips, more load-bearing, greater impact)

• Emergency health assistance, rural load-carrying

05 DRAFT INDEXNot to be cited

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PERFORMANCE VS COMMITMENT INDEXINDEX based on the development of two indices that measure NMT commitment, and NMT performance

The matrix shows four quadrants within which each country is positioned:4. Weak NMT performance (safety), strong policy commitment3. Weak NMT performance (safety), weak policy commitment2. Strong NMT performance (safety), weak policy commitment1. Strong NMT performance (safety), strong policy commitment

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06 DISCUSSION

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ANSWERS (1) …What is the level of NMT commitment within the countries surveyed • Every country has some national commitment –

of varying degrees, some simply a few paragraphs in a national transport policy, some, a standalone policy

How comprehensive are these NMT commitments?• Few are comprehensive enough, and few include

measurable and verifiable goals, objectives and action plans to which the authority is held accountable

What are the core thematic gaps within the documentation?• Most countries ‘say the right things…’

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ANSWERS (2) …Are NMT users safer in countries with high levels of NMT commitments?Not yet, not as far as our data shows – largely because:• Insufficiently nuanced data• NMT commitments are relatively new• NMT commitments are too broad, insufficiently

measurable, or not yet at local level

Is there a link between countries with significant NMT commitment and countries undergoing BRT / public transport transformation in any way?• Seems so, yes…

WHY?This is not new –– agencies (eg World Bank) been reporting this since 70s• Motorisation seen

as ‘the modern way’,evidence of success

• NMT ‘gets in the way’• Capacity and skills concerns• Rapid motorisation• Corruption• Backlog of poor provision

07 NEXT

• REPORT IS AT PEER-REVIEW STAGE

• PREPARATION OF ‘SUMMARY’ VERSION

• LAUNCH AT HABITAT III, QUITO, OCTOBER 2016

CONTACT ME AT GAIL@GAILJENNINGS.CO.ZA FOR A COPY OF THE REPORT (INCLUDING DATA, GRAPHS AND NARRATIVE