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Transcript of UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april...
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
Methodologies for, Approaches to, and Frameworks of, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments
Methodologies for, Approaches to, and Frameworks of, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments
Dr Isabelle NIANG-DIOPUniversity of Dakar (SENEGAL)
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
What do we mean by…..?What do we mean by…..? Just ways to produce V&A studies The main methodologies/frameworks
The « first generation »: IPCC guidelines 1994CGE work; synthesis of first V&A studies ; weakness of adaptation strategiesThe « second generation »: 2002-2003– the Adaptation Policy Framework; « adaptation oriented »– The NAPAs– Uncertainty-Risk decision making tools : the UKCIP
methodology
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The IPCC Technical Guidelines (Carter et al.,
1994)
The IPCC Technical Guidelines (Carter et al.,
1994)Define problem
Select method
Test method/sensitivity
Select scenarios
Assess impacts
Assess autonomous adjustments
Evaluate adaptation strategies
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UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The IPCC GuidelinesThe IPCC Guidelines Step 1: Define the problem
Goals of the assessmentExposure units to be studied (sectors, ecosystems,..)Study area (administrative, geographical, ecological units, …)Time frame (time horizons)Data needs : identify data requirements (type, source, quantity, quality,…)The context of the study: political, economic, global changes, etc.
Step 2: Select the method
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The IPCC GuidelinesThe IPCC Guidelines Step 2: Select the method
ExperimentationModels : biophysical, economic, integratedAnalogues : historical, geographicalExpert judgement
Step 3: Test the method Step 4: Select the scenarios
The baselines: climatological, environmental, socio-economicThe scenarios : mainly climate change scenarios (MAGICC-SCENGEN), environmental and socio-economic projections
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The IPCC GuidelinesThe IPCC Guidelines Step 5: Assess the impacts
Qualitative assessmentsThe use of models (CERES, Bruun rule, WATBAL, Holdride)Economic impacts : cost benefit analysis
Step 6: Assess autonomous adjustments Step 7: Evaluate adaptation strategies
The seven steps approach
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
Evaluation of adaptation strategiesEvaluation of adaptation strategies
Define objectives
Specify important impacts
Identify adaptation options
Examine constraints
Quantify measures/formulate alternative strategies
Weight objectives/evaluate trade-offs
Recommend adaptation measures
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UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The IPCC methodologyThe IPCC methodology
A number of derived methodologiesThe USCSPThe UNEP Handbook
Applied in a number of V&A studies, and particularly in the Initial National Communications of Non Annex I Countries
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
Other approachesOther approaches The small islands approach, especially in the
Pacific: sparsity of data, the importance of traditional knowledge
The vulnerability-resilience approach (Kay et al., 1993) applied in the coastal zone. The coastal zone was considered to be made of hard and soft systems. Vulnerability was ranked from –3 to 0 and resilience from 0 to +3. The difference between the two being called the Sustainable Capacity Index
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
A rapid evolutionA rapid evolution The CGE work based on synthesis and analysis
of V&A studies The growing recognition of the importance of
adaptation for NAI countries A context of more frequent extreme events First recognition of the need to integrate
adaptation strategies into planning development Greater exchange with other communities:
disaster, risk and uncertainty managers
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
As a resultAs a result The new guidelines for the preparation of
national communications of Non Annex I Partieshttp://unfccc.int/resource/userman_nc.pdf
A number of new methodologies, approaches, frameworks: the so-called « second generation » methodologies
The Adaptation Policy Framework (APF)The National Adaptation Programmes of ActionsThe UKCIP « Climate change risk-uncertainty-decision making framework
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The second generation methodologies : What’s new ?
The second generation methodologies : What’s new ?
Less prescriptive Better centered on adaptation Consider adaptation in the development context Include stakeholders participation Take into consideration current as well as future
vulnerability
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The Adaptation Policy FrameworkThe Adaptation Policy Framework Developed by an interdisciplinary team under UNDP Propose practical guidance to develop an
adaptation strategy for climate change Based on a 5 steps approach Supported by 9 Technical Papers With a User’s Guidebook already available (2003) http://www.undp.org/cc/apf_outline.htm
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The Adaptation Policy Framework
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The NAPAsThe NAPAs The objective is to develop action programmes
adressing the current and urgent needs of LDCs in adaptation to climate change
Annotated Guidelines for the Preparation of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (2002)
http://unfccc.int/text/program/sd/ldc/documents/annguide.pdf
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
Set up the teams
SynthesisParticipative evaluation of current vulnerability
Public consultation to identify potential adaptation actions
Define criteria
Prioritization of actions
Design projects
Submission and dissemination
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
The UKCIP method: CC risk, uncertainty and decision-
making framework
The UKCIP method: CC risk, uncertainty and decision-
making framework The main objectives are to allow decision
makers toTake in account risk and uncertainty associated with climate variability and future climate changeIdentify good adaptation options, in particular no regret options
Framework in 8 stages http://www.ukcip.org.uk/risk_uncert/
risk_uncert.html
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
Identify problem
Define decision-making criteria
Assess risks
Identify optionsAppraise options
Monitor
Implement decision
Criteria met?Yes
Problem definition?
NoNoYes
Make decision
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
New/improved toolsNew/improved tools
Regional climate change scenarios The AIACC project Vulnerability indices Improved models New sectors emerged (health for example)
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004
You want more?You want more?
Look at the « Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change »
http://unfccc.int/program/mis/meth