UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh...UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh A....
Transcript of UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh...UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh A....
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles
Bangladesh
A. Karmalkar1, C. McSweeney
1, M. New
1,2 and
G. Lizcano1
1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford.
2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
General Climate
Bangladesh is a low-ノ┞キミェ Iラ┌ミデヴ┞ キミ Sラ┌デエ Aゲキ; ノラI;デWS ;デ ヲヱこ-ヲヶこ ミラヴデエ ラa デエW Wケ┌;デラヴく TエW Iラ┌ミデヴ┞ experiences a tropical monsoon-type climate, with a hot and humid summer from March to June, a
relatively cooler monsoon season from June to September, and a dry winter from October to March.
Bangladesh has warm temperatures throughout the year, with relatively little temporal and spatial
┗;ヴキ;デキラミゲく J;ミ┌;ヴ┞ デWミSゲ デラ HW デエW IララノWゲデ マラミデエ ┘キデエ デWマヮWヴ;デ┌ヴWゲ ;┗Wヴ;ェキミェ ミW;ヴ ヲヶこC ;ミS Aヮヴキノ the warmest with temper;デ┌ヴWゲ ;ヴラ┌ミS ンヵこCく TエW Iノキマ;デW キゲ ラミW ラa デエW ┘WデデWゲデ キミ デエW ┘ラヴノSく Mラゲデ parts of the country receive over 2000 mm of rainfall a year with 80% of it falling during the
monsoon (June-September) season. Because of its location just south of the foothills of the
Himalayas, where monsoon winds turn west and northwest, the northeastern Bangladesh receives
the greatest average precipitation.
Bangladesh is subject to devastating cyclones, originating over the Bay of Bengal, in the periods of
April to May and September to November. The country is low-lying, and therefore highly vulnerable
to future changes in sea level.
Recent Climate Trends
Temperature
Surface air temperature in Bangladesh has increased since 1960, particularly in JJA and SON
(rainy summer) seasonゲ H┞ ;ヴラ┌ミS ヰくンこC ふヰくヰΑこC ヮWヴ SWI;SWぶ ;ミS ヰくヵこC ふヰくヱヲこC ヮWヴ SWI;SWぶ respectively.
Daily temperature observations show significantly increasing trends in the frequency of hot
days and hot nights.
o TエW ;┗Wヴ;ェW ミ┌マHWヴ ラa けエラデげ1 days per year in Bangladesh has increased by 26 (an
additional 7.2% of days) between 1960 and 2003. The rate of increase is seen most
strongly in JJA when the average number of hot JJA days has increased by 9.9 days per
month (an additional 32% of JJA days) over this period.
o The average ミ┌マHWヴ ラa けエラデげ ミキェエデゲ ヮWヴ ┞W;ヴ キミ B;ミェノ;SWゲエ エ;ゲ キミIヴW;ゲWS H┞ ヱヵ ふ;ミ additional 4% of nights).
Precipitation
Mean rainfall over Bangladesh has decreased by 1.1mm per month (0.5%) per decade
between 1960 and 2003, but this decrease is not statistically significant. The country has
experienced an increase in MAM rainfall by 3.4% and a decrease in JJA rainfall by 1.7%
between 1960 and 2003.
The proportion of rainfall falling in heavy events has decreased slightly (by 1.1%) between
1960 and 2003. The magnituSW ラa ;ミミ┌;ノ ヱどS;┞ ヴ;キミa;ノノ マ;┝キマ; ゲエラ┘ゲ ゲデ;デキstically significant
decreases (4.47mm per decade) between 1960 and 2003. 5-day annual rainfall maxima
shows negative trend, but is not statistically significant.
GCM Projections of Future Climate
Temperature
TエW マW;ミ ;ミミ┌;ノ デWマヮWヴ;デ┌ヴW キゲ ヮヴラテWIデWS デラ キミIヴW;ゲW H┞ ヰくΓ デラ ヲくヶこC H┞ デエW ヲヰヶヰゲが ;ミS ヱくン デラ ヴくヱこC H┞ デエW ヲヰΓヰゲく TエW ヴ;ミェW ラa ヮヴラテWIデキラミゲ H┞ デエW ヲヰΓヰゲ ┌ミSWヴ ;ミ┞ ラミW Wマキゲゲキラミゲ scenario is around 1-ヲこCく TエW ヮヴラテWIデWS ヴ;デW ラa ┘;ヴマキミェ キゲ ゲキマキノ;ヴ デエヴラ┌ェエラ┌デ デエe year.
All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are
IラミゲキSWヴWS けエラデげ キミ I┌ヴヴWミデ Iノキマ;デWく
o Aミミ┌;ノノ┞が ヮヴラテWIデキラミゲ キミSキI;デW デエ;デ けエラデげ S;┞ゲ ┘キノノ ラII┌ヴ ラミ ヱΑ-39% of days by the
2060s, and 16-52% of days by the 2090s.
o Nキェエデゲ デエ;デ ;ヴW IラミゲキSWヴWS けエラデげ aラヴ デエW ;ミミ┌;ノ Iノキマ;デW ラa ヱΓΑヰ-99 are projected to
occur on 26-37% of nights by the 2060s and 30-50% of nights by the 2090s. Nights
that are hot for each season are projected to increase most rapidly in JJA, occurring
on 46-97% of nights in every season by the 2090s.
All projections indicate decreases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered
けIラノSげ2 in current climate.
1 けHラデげ S;┞ ラヴ けエラデげ ミキェエデ キゲ SWaキミed by the temperature exceeded on 10% of days or nights in current climate of that region and season.
2 けCラノSげ S;┞ゲ ラヴ けIラノSげ ミキェエデゲ ;ヴW SWaキミWS ;ゲ デエW デWマヮWヴ;デ┌ヴW HWノラ┘ ┘エキIエ ヱヰХ ラa S;┞ゲ ラヴ ミキェエデゲ ;ヴW ヴWIラヴSWS キミ I┌ヴヴWミデ Iノキマ;デW of that
region or season.
Precipitation
Projections of mean annual rainfall from different models in the ensemble are broadly
consistent in indicating small increases in rainfall for Bangladesh.
o Projected change in mean annual rainfall ranges from -8 to +26mm per month (-10
to +24%) by the 2090s. Ensemble median values for all seasons, except DJF, are
positive.
o JJA rainfall is projected to change by -11mm (-4%) to +73mm (31%) per month by
the 2090s.
The proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy events does not show a consistent
direction of change.
The models in the ensemble are broadly consistent in indicating increases in the magnitude
ラa ヵどS;┞ ヴ;キミa;ノノ マ;┝キマ;く Aミミ┌;ノノ┞が ヵどS;┞ マ;┝キマ; Iエ;ミェW H┞ どヶ デラ ЩΑヱママ H┞ デエW ヲヰΓヰゲく These increases are most evident in JJA and SON (wet season) rainfall, when changes of 0 to
Щヶヲママ キミ JJA ;ミS どΑ デラ ЩヴΓ ママ キミ SON ;ヴW ヮヴラテWIデWS キミ ヵどS;┞ マ;┝キマ; aラヴ デエW ヲヰΓヰゲく
Additional Regional Climate Change Information
A lack of consistency between models in representing monsoon processes contributes to
uncertainty in estimates of future precipitation in this region (Christensen et al., 2007).
Tropical cyclones are poorly captured by GCMs and thus potential changes in intensity and
tracks of tropical cyclones in the future are very uncertain. Whilst evidence indicates that
tropical cyclones are likely to become, on the whole, more intense under a warmer climate
as a result of higher sea-surface temperatures, there is great uncertainty in changes in
frequency, and changes to storm tracks, which introduces uncertainty at the regional scale
(Christensen et al., 2007).
Bangladesh is vulnerable to sea-level rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) estimates that the global average sea level will rise by 0.18-0.59 m by 2100 relative to
1980-1999 under a range of scenarios.
For further information see Christensen et al. (2007) IPCC Wラヴニキミェ Gヴラ┌ヮ I ‘Wヮラヴデぎ けThe
Pエ┞ゲキI;ノ SIキWミIW B;ゲキゲげ, Chapter 11 (Regional Climate projections): Sections 11.4 (Asia).
Data Summary
Observed
Mean 1970-99
Observed
Trend 1960-2006
Projected changes by the
2030s Projected changes by the 2060s Projected changes by the
2090s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max
Temperature
ふこCぶ (change in
こC ヮWヴ decade)
Cエ;ミェW キミ こC Cエ;ミェW キミ こC Cエ;ミェW キミ こC
A2 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.4 3.3 4.1
Annual 24.4 0.02 A1B 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.6 2.1 2.9 3.6
B1 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.3 2 2.4
A2 -0.1 0.8 1.7 1.1 1.8 3.1 2.6 3.6 4.8
DJF 18.7 0.07 A1B 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.4 2.1 3.4 2.1 3.1 4.6
B1 0.4 0.7 1.8 0.9 1.4 2.6 1.7 2.2 2.8
A2 0.1 0.9 1.3 1 2 2.5 2.2 3.5 4.4
MAM 26.5 -0.09 A1B 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.3 2.2 2.9 2.1 2.9 4.4
B1 -0.3 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.8 0.8 2.3 2.6
A2 0.3 0.8 1.4 1 1.8 2.3 2 3.1 3.9
JJA 27.4 0.07* A1B 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.3 1.9 2.4 3.6
B1 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.9 1.3 2 1.2 1.6 2.4
A2 0.1 0.7 1.4 1 1.7 2.1 2.4 3 4.1
SON 25 0.12* A1B 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.7 1.5 2.7 3.7
B1 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.2 2 1.2 1.9 2.7
Precipitation
(mm per
month)
(change in
mm per
decade)
Change in mm per month Change in mm per month Change in mm per month
A2 -13 -1 10 -13 2 20 -13 8 26
Annual 205.4 -1.1 A1B -9 1 13 -4 6 16 -15 10 22
B1 -9 0 6 -7 3 14 -8 6 13
A2 -14 -2 12 -20 -1 18 -19 -3 4
DJF 14.9 -0.6 A1B -13 -1 12 -14 -2 9 -18 0 8
B1 -6 -2 7 -18 1 9 -18 -1 6
A2 -14 0 8 -22 0 25 -16 0 47
MAM 158.9 5.3 A1B -17 3 10 -10 0 35 -11 0 31
B1 -9 1 26 -16 0 21 -15 0 26
A2 -20 4 25 -26 7 49 -5 22 73
JJA 476.7 -8 A1B -16 2 45 -14 16 44 -9 21 68
B1 -26 1 26 -30 5 40 -11 8 51
A2 -28 -5 25 -23 1 36 -23 5 37
SON 172 0.1 A1B -11 -3 15 -21 2 26 -23 10 63
B1 -15 -3 33 -10 1 29 -29 4 35
Precipitation (%)
(mm per
month)
(change in %
per decade)
% Change % Change % Change
A2 -17 0 9 -16 2 15 -17 7 24
Annual 205.4 -0.5 A1B -12 1 6 -4 5 13 -19 8 21
B1 -8 1 6 -9 3 12 -10 4 11
A2 -47 -10 44 -67 -5 117 -66 -20 42
DJF 14.9 -3.7 A1B -57 -11 27 -64 -9 31 -62 -6 34
B1 -46 -14 45 -60 6 44 -61 -4 28
A2 -46 0 21 -39 1 36 -52 2 58
MAM 158.9 3.4 A1B -33 7 36 -46 0 31 -24 0 31
B1 -34 3 37 -22 3 28 -32 -1 41
A2 -14 2 8 -11 2 19 -4 7 31
JJA 476.7 -1.7 A1B -6 1 8 -5 5 17 -6 9 21
B1 -10 0 10 -11 3 15 -4 4 20
A2 -25 -4 23 -22 2 20 -26 5 26
SON 172 0 A1B -9 -2 14 -19 2 24 -21 9 58
B1 -13 -4 31 -11 1 29 -33 3 28
Observed
Mean 1970-99
Observed
Trend 1960-2006
Projected changes by the
2030s Projected changes by the 2060s Projected changes by the
2090s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max
%
Frequency
Change in
frequency
per decade
Future % frequency Future % frequency
Frequency of Hot Days (TX90p)
A2 **** **** **** 17 21 38 24 30 52
Annual 11.2 1.68* A1B **** **** **** 19 23 39 23 28 50
B1 **** **** **** 17 19 32 16 23 39
A2 **** **** **** 19 27 38 34 50 61
DJF 9.6 0.67 A1B **** **** **** 22 33 42 25 40 55
B1 **** **** **** 16 23 33 21 28 37
A2 **** **** **** 17 32 41 35 49 62
MAM 9.9 0.16 A1B **** **** **** 21 32 43 31 45 64
B1 **** **** **** 20 23 34 22 31 43
A2 **** **** **** 23 32 71 32 44 92
JJA 12.1 2.46* A1B **** **** **** 20 32 72 26 41 91
B1 **** **** **** 21 26 58 18 34 69
A2 **** **** **** 24 31 44 38 48 66
SON 12.2 2.13* A1B **** **** **** 28 31 49 27 44 65
B1 **** **** **** 16 24 40 25 31 48
Frequency of Hot Nights (TN90p)
A2 **** **** **** 29 33 36 40 45 50
Annual 9.4 0.96* A1B **** **** **** 30 35 37 36 41 48
B1 **** **** **** 26 28 30 30 33 37
A2 **** **** **** 26 33 43 49 61 73
DJF 9.2 0.08 A1B **** **** **** 27 37 47 36 50 65
B1 **** **** **** 20 27 32 26 33 42
A2 **** **** **** 26 36 41 43 57 61
MAM 9.6 0.48 A1B **** **** **** 28 40 45 37 50 60
B1 **** **** **** 25 29 34 30 36 44
A2 **** **** **** 41 66 88 64 91 97
JJA 9.3 0.82 A1B **** **** **** 38 67 90 61 85 96
B1 **** **** **** 38 56 81 46 65 90
A2 **** **** **** 26 39 46 39 50 61
SON 9.5 0.4 A1B **** **** **** 25 42 46 31 51 57
B1 **** **** **** 23 30 37 24 39 47
Frequency of Cold Days (TX10p)
A2 **** **** **** 2 4 5 0 1 3
Annual 9.2 -1.43* A1B **** **** **** 1 3 5 1 1 3
B1 **** **** **** 3 4 7 0 3 5
A2 **** **** **** 1 3 5 0 0 1
DJF 10.1 -0.82 A1B **** **** **** 0 2 3 0 1 2
B1 **** **** **** 1 3 6 0 2 4
A2 **** **** **** 1 3 5 0 1 4
MAM 9.4 -1.01 A1B **** **** **** 1 3 5 0 1 4
B1 **** **** **** 2 4 6 1 4 7
A2 **** **** **** 0 2 5 0 0 1
JJA 8.7 -1.60* A1B **** **** **** 0 2 4 0 1 1
B1 **** **** **** 1 2 5 0 2 4
A2 **** **** **** 2 4 6 0 2 7
SON 9.2 -1.66* A1B **** **** **** 1 3 5 0 2 6
B1 **** **** **** 2 4 8 1 3 7
Frequency of Cold Nights (TN10p)
A2 **** **** **** 2 3 4 0 1 1
Annual 8.6 -2.11* A1B **** **** **** 1 2 3 0 1 2
B1 **** **** **** 3 4 5 1 3 4
A2 **** **** **** 0 1 3 0 0 0
DJF 8.4 -2.68* A1B **** **** **** 0 1 2 0 0 1
B1 **** **** **** 1 2 3 0 1 3
A2 **** **** **** 1 2 3 0 0 2
MAM 9.3 -1.53* A1B **** **** **** 0 2 4 0 1 2
B1 **** **** **** 2 3 5 1 2 3
A2 **** **** **** 0 1 2 0 0 0
JJA 8.4 -1.88* A1B **** **** **** 0 0 2 0 0 0
B1 **** **** **** 0 1 2 0 0 2
A2 **** **** **** 1 3 6 0 1 2
SON 8.1 -2.23* A1B **** **** **** 0 3 4 0 1 3
B1 **** **** **** 2 3 6 2 3 6
Observed
Mean 1970-99
Observed
Trend 1960-2006
Projected changes by the
2030s
Projected changes by the
2060s
Projected changes by the
2090s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max
% total rainfall falling in Heavy Events (R95pct)
% Change in %
per decade
Change in % Change in %
A2 **** **** **** -3 3 6 -4 6 11
Annual 20.3 -1.10* A1B **** **** **** -2 4 8 -6 6 10
B1 **** **** **** -3 2 4 0 3 7
A2 **** **** **** -34 -4 13 -26 -5 9
DJF **** **** A1B **** **** **** -18 -4 9 -21 -1 8
B1 **** **** **** -23 0 3 -23 2 7
A2 **** **** **** -10 -2 9 -20 0 18
MAM **** **** A1B **** **** **** -15 0 9 -20 2 13
B1 **** **** **** -9 0 6 -11 2 17
A2 **** **** **** 0 3 10 3 7 14
JJA **** **** A1B **** **** **** 1 5 10 -1 7 12
B1 **** **** **** -1 3 7 1 4 11
A2 **** **** **** -7 1 14 -7 5 12
SON **** **** A1B **** **** **** -5 2 8 -9 4 16
B1 **** **** **** -6 2 7 -5 1 9
Maximum 1-day rainfall (RX1day)
mm
Change in
mm per
decade
Change in mm Change in mm
A2 **** **** **** -13 3 26 -10 5 50
Annual 128.1 -4.47* A1B **** **** **** -5 4 21 -16 10 39
B1 **** **** **** -4 3 24 -3 1 21
A2 **** **** **** -18 -2 8 -16 -1 4
DJF 7.5 0.83 A1B **** **** **** -7 -1 3 -16 -1 6
B1 **** **** **** -15 -2 2 -15 -1 2
A2 **** **** **** -4 -1 4 -6 0 5
MAM 33.8 1.65 A1B **** **** **** -3 0 4 -5 1 5
B1 **** **** **** -3 0 4 -6 0 4
A2 **** **** **** -2 3 31 -1 7 45
JJA 83.8 -2.1 A1B **** **** **** -1 5 22 1 7 37
B1 **** **** **** -1 4 22 -3 5 20
A2 **** **** **** -8 0 19 -6 3 18
SON 46.8 -0.93 A1B **** **** **** -3 2 15 -10 5 25
B1 **** **** **** -3 0 11 -5 0 16
Maximum 5-day Rainfall (RX5day)
mm
Change in
mm per
decade
Change in mm Change in mm
A2 **** **** **** -17 6 50 -11 16 71
Annual 267.5 -4.74 A1B **** **** **** -11 11 35 -26 24 52
B1 **** **** **** -5 6 36 -6 8 37
A2 **** **** **** -31 -3 22 -26 -3 2
DJF 12.3 1.11 A1B **** **** **** -14 -3 2 -27 -2 16
B1 **** **** **** -26 -3 7 -24 -2 6
A2 **** **** **** -7 -2 11 -14 -3 18
MAM 60.2 4.37* A1B **** **** **** -8 0 11 -8 3 16
B1 **** **** **** -6 0 9 -9 0 12
A2 **** **** **** 0 5 55 3 16 62
JJA 193.7 -1.14 A1B **** **** **** 1 8 39 -1 18 47
B1 **** **** **** -4 7 32 0 7 36
A2 **** **** **** -17 1 37 -12 8 33
SON 97.2 -3.03 A1B **** **** **** -11 5 27 -23 11 49
B1 **** **** **** -7 5 18 -7 4 41
* indicates trend is statistically significant at 95% confidence
**** indicates data are not available
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