Understanding the Five Drivers Shaping Megatrends...Russia Germany India Japan China USA 2005 0...

Understanding the Five Drivers Shaping MegatrendsSarah Boumphrey, Director – Economies and Consumers

An Hodgson, Head of Income and Expenditure

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The data included in this document is accurate according to Passport, Euromonitor International’s market research database, at time of publication: September 2019

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Overview


3

Introduction

Our five drivers in focus

How do drivers generate and shape megatrends?

Conclusion

Introduction


5

What is a megatrend and why megatrend analysis?

UNDERSTANDING THE FIVE DRIVERS SHAPING MEGATRENDS


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Euromonitor’s megatrend framework



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We have identified five drivers shaping consumer behaviour


Our five drivers in focus

Shifting Economic Power

1

6Of the world’s 10 largest

economies will be emerging markets

256Size of the global economy in

PPP$ trillions

76%Of growth will come from

emerging and developing economies

In 2030…


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The shift to the east


0 4,000

Saudi Arabia

India

Mexico

UK

France

Brazil

Italy

Germany

Japan

USA

1980

0 15,000

Italy

UK

France

Brazil

Russia

Germany

India

Japan

China

USA

2005

0 60,000

Mexico

UK

Brazil

Germany

Russia

Japan

Indonesia

India

USA

China

2030

Total GDP $ trillions PPP terms

Population Change

2

74Life expectancy at birth in years

8.5Global population in billions

33Median age in years

In 2030…


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One in ten people globally will be aged 65+ in 2030


Environmental Shifts and Pressures

3

92%Of global population with access

to electricity

66Population density persons per

square kilometre

1.4Cars in use in billions

In 2030…


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Three key challenges


Climate Change

Competition for Resources

Pollution and Waste

Technology

4

US$213Consumer spending on

communications per capita

99%Of households with a mobile

phone

60%Of households with a tablet

In 2030…


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The always-on consumer


3.8bnGlobal internet users as of 2019, which equates to half of the world’s population.

57%of connected consumers report they would be lost without the internet.

34%of connected consumers prefer online communication rather than other means.

Changing Values

5

4,317Billion US$ spent on leisure and

recreation

53%Proportion of consumer

spending on services

21%Generation Z as a % of global

population

In 2030…


23

From conspicuous to conscious consumption


0 10 20 30 40 50 60

I prefer to spend my money on experiencesrather than things

I am willing to spend money to save time

I feel I can make a difference to the worldthrough my choices and actions

I find I am looking for ways to simplify my life

% of respondents

Important Consumer Values 2015 -2019

2019 2017 2015

How do drivers generate and shape megatrends?


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Megatrend analysis at Euromonitor



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Experience More


Weak income gains have driven

consumers to reassess their

values & priorities.

Rise of Millennials and Gen Z drives

change. Migration and mobility also

facilitate this megatrend.

Technology acts as an enabler by enhancing the

overall experience.

Consumers seek to minimise the impact their

consumption has on the

environment.

Experience More is driven by the

shift in consumer attitude towards

conscious consumption.


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Connected Consumers


The future of Connected

Consumers will be driven by emerging

markets.

The Asian Century will give rise to

more Connected Consumers.

Digital connectivity underpins the very

existence of Connected Consumers.

This contributes to the migration to

digital content and new business models which

promote access.

The greater value consumers place on comfort, time, and convenience drives Connected

Consumers.


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Shopping Reinvented


This driver is not only about the rise

of emerging markets, but also the middle class retreat and the

search for value.

Urbanisation allows for greater experimentation, engagement, and

commercial success.

Technology is interwoven into

almost every step of the new

shopper journey.

Environmental shifts & pressures

impact what consumers buy

and their decision making process.

The willingness to spend money to save time drives

innovation in areas such as the

last mile.

Conclusion


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Drivers are crucial to understanding consumer behaviour


To stay ahead of changing consumer preferences and values,

companies must embrace megatrend analysis.

The five factors or drivers that we have identified comprise undeniable facts about the world. Although the drivers themselves

do not change, the trends within them do. For example, in the

1950s, the baby boom was a key population trend in many countries, today ageing is.

Understanding these drivers provides clarity to megatrend analysis.


31UNDERSTANDING THE FIVE DRIVERS SHAPING MEGATRENDS

Disruption in consumer markets is indivisible from megatrends


32UNDERSTANDING THE FIVE DRIVERS SHAPING MEGATRENDS

Netflix: A case in point

Drivers set the stage of a

changing environment and enable change

Megatrends highlight

resulting consumer behaviour

shifts and demands

Disruptors smartly

leverage right time, right solutions for consumers


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Looking ahead we will continue to see significant change


Shifting Economic Power Population Change

GDP in emerging and developing economies will

grow more than 3 times faster than developed economies to 2030.

Technology

The urban population will increase by 840 million

between 2019 and 2030.

Three quarters of households globally will

have access to broadband internet in 2030.

Environmental Shifts and Pressures Changing Values

In the 12 years between 2019 and 2030, the number of cars in use will grow by 38%, compared to 56% in

the 12 years to 2018.

Consumer spending on leisure and recreation will increase by

26% in real terms between 2019 and 2030.

Thank youSarah Boumphrey, Director – Economies & Consumers

[email protected]

@SarahBoumphrey

https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarah-boumphrey-73173361/

An Hodgson, Head of Income and Expenditure

[email protected]

@An_Hodgson

https://www.linkedin.com/in/aphodgson/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarah-boumphrey-73173361/

Understanding the Five Drivers Shaping Megatrends...Russia Germany India Japan China USA 2005 0...

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