Impacts économique, social et territorial des filières AOC savoyardes.
Understanding Territorial Impacts: Tool for Territorial Impact Assessment
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Transcript of Understanding Territorial Impacts: Tool for Territorial Impact Assessment
Understanding Territorial Impacts:Tool for Territorial Impact Assessment
Bernd Schuh (ÖIR)Karkow, Nov. 2011
ESPON ARTS
The Tasks• Develop a simplified, evidence-based procedure of
Territorial Impact Assessment (TIA)• Supply policy makers with an operational procedure
that could work as a “evidence informed policy support”
• Analyse ex-ante the impact of EU policy proposals taking the sensitivity of regions into account
• Test the TIA quick check with a set of 12 directives
The theoretical approach
Policies Regions
Exposure Territorial sensitivity
Territorial impact
The vulnerability concept
Vulnerability Concept
• Potential effects (exposure): Which economic, social, and environmental fields could be affected by EU directives?
• (Territorial) sensitivity: Which characteristics make a territory potentially affected in its economic, social, and environmental fields?
• Impact: Which are the territorial effects of a certain policy given its potential effects and regional sensitivities?
• Adaptive capacity: How weak/strong is the ability of a system to adjust to the potential impact? => link to governance aspects
Definitions in ARTS
The TIA Quick Check
• A user-friendly methodology that allows to make a ‘quick and dirty’ ex-ante analysis of the potential impact of EU policy proposals on the development of regions
• Combining – a standardised indicator-based Excel tool with – means to systematically collect expert knowledge
in a workshop setting
An excel tool and a procedure
9 Steps to Assess the Territorial Impact of Policy Proposals
(1) The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions?
(2) Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching)
(3) Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure)
(4) What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix)
(5) What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix)
(6) Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check)
(7) Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results)
(8) What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion)
(9) How to communicate the results? (write-up)
(1) Conceptual model: Brainstorming
Creating a systemic picture linking the regulations with territorial effects
(1) Result: Conceptual Model
Deducing potential effects from Directives
Input related sectors– pesticide production– spraying equipment
Land use/types of territories– Natura 2000/FFH – special use of land (hospitals, parks,
playgrounds)– strong protection
Implementation process
Socio-economic effects
Agricultural production quantity
Soil– „immission“ decreases– improvement of soil quality
Air– aerial spraying prohibited– Improvement of air quality
Water– efficient application techniques (no
aerial spraying, no drift application)– Improvement of water quality
Quality of Life Human Health
Recreational value of land
National Action Plan– Monitoring & Control
Training
Education/awareness
Agricultural production quality
Output related sectors– drinking water– fisheries– tourism
Environmental effects
Employment
Innovation
positive correlation
Regulative framework
Eco-system/Bio-diversity
Social effects
negative correlation
(sustainable use of) Pesticides
Emiss
ion
(2) Picturing different cause - effect chains(branching)
(1) The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions?
(2) Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching)
(3) Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure)
(4) What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix)
(5) What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix)
(6) Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check)
(7) Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results)
(8) What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion)
(9) How to communicate the results? (write-up)
(3) Expert judgment: types of regions exposedDirective XX affected region
AgglomeratedAl l regionsChemica l industriesHarbour regionsHigh dens i ty of ra i lHigh dens i ty of road
a Industria l regionsMajor a i rport locationNatural areas
b Rura lShrinking regionsUnprofi table farmingUrban
Provided: 20 types of regions (NUTS2)to be selected
(3) Background: existing typologies of regions
code name Aggl
omer
ated
All r
egio
ns
Area
s at h
ighe
st
tech
/env
risk
Chem
ical
indu
strie
s
Dens
ily p
opul
ated
Fore
st
Harb
our r
egio
ns
AT11 Burgenland 0 1 0 0 0 1 0AT12 Niederösterreich 0 1 0 1 0 1 0AT13 Wien 1 1 0 1 1 0 1AT21 Kärnten 0 1 0 0 0 1 0AT22 Steiermark 0 1 0 0 0 1 0AT31 Oberösterreich 0 1 1 1 0 1 0AT32 Salzburg 0 1 0 0 0 1 0AT33 Tirol 0 1 0 0 0 1 0AT34 Vorarlberg 0 1 0 0 0 1 0BE10 Région de Bruxel les -Capi ta le/Brussels Hoofdstedel i jk Gewest1 1 0 1 1 0 0BE21 Prov. Antwerpen 1 1 0 1 1 0 1BE22 Prov. Limburg (B) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0BE23 Prov. Oos t-Vlaanderen 1 1 1 1 0 0 1
0: no1: yes
(4) Expert judgment: exposure caused by Directive
0: no1: yes
(4) Background: List of 41 exposure fieldsNatural environment
Soil Water Air Climatic factors Fauna/Flora/Habitat
erosion water consumption pollutants in air emissions of CO2 biodiversity pollutants in soil pollutants in
ground/surface water
heavy rain/flood hazard/occurrence of landslides
conservation of natural heritage (landscape diversity)
share of artificial areas/soil sealing
conservation of cultural heritage
Regional economy
Economic development
Agriculture Industry Services Tourism
economic growth employment in primary sector
employment in secondary sector
employment in tertiary sector
overnight stays
innovation % of arable area, permanent grass/- crop area
entrepreneurship market barriers
Society and people
Social disparities Demography Accessibility Built environment Governance
disposable income in PPS per capita
out-migration/brain drain/”shrinking” regions
daily accessibility by air
increase of urbanization relative to population growth
efficiency of government/governance mechanisms
equal income distribution
number of people exposed to noise
daily accessibility by waterways
mixed land use duration or complexity of planning procedures
Employment rate accident rate in transport
daily accessibility by road
participation rate
accident risk: industry/energy supply
daily accessibility by rail
societal transfers (e.g. tax added)
healthy life expectancy at birth
renewable energy transnational cooperation between member states
fossil fuel consumption
(5) Input for impact: regional sensitivity
Linking indicators with territorial units (NUTS2)
E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10 E11 E12 E13 E14
area
s at
risk
(PO
P+EM
PL)/
USA
BLE
LAN
D
% a
rtific
ial a
rea
% in
land
wat
er
(PO
P+EM
PL)/
USA
BLE
LAN
D
PM10
con
cent
ratio
n
Vehi
cle
conc
entr
ation
Floo
d ha
zard
% N
atur
a 20
00 a
reas
% n
atur
al a
reas
n° o
f TCI
3-s
tars
1/G
DP p
er c
apita
Shar
e of
pro
duct
&/o
r pr
oces
s in
nova
tion
%se
lf-em
pl o
n em
ploy
men
t
a t11 Burgenland 0,77 0,76 0,78 1,21 0,76 0,91 0,76 0,77 0,86 0,77 0,76 0,85 0,97 1,18
at12 Niederösterreich 0,75 0,76 0,78 1,24 0,76 0,9 0,76 0,78 0,86 0,76 0,77 0,83 0,98 1,16
at13 Wien 0,75 0,99 1,06 1,21 0,99 0,93 0,97 1,11 0,86 0,77 0,78 0,78 1,17 1,19
at21 Kärnten 0,77 0,76 0,76 1,24 0,76 0,84 0,76 0,77 0,86 0,88 0,76 0,83 0,99 1,18
at22 Steiermark 0,77 0,76 0,77 1,25 0,76 0,86 0,76 0,79 0,86 0,85 0,76 0,83 1,03 1,14
at31 Oberösterreich 0,75 0,76 0,77 1,23 0,76 0,88 0,76 0,79 0,86 0,78 0,76 0,81 0,99 1,18
at32 Salzburg 0,75 0,77 0,76 1,24 0,77 0,84 0,76 0,79 0,86 0,99 0,77 0,8 0,98 1,16
at33 Tirol 0,75 0,78 0,76 1,25 0,78 0,81 0,76 0,81 0,86 1,1 0,76 0,81 0,97 1,16
at34 Vorarlberg 0,75 0,79 0,78 1,23 0,79 0,82 0,76 0,81 0,86 1,04 0,75 0,8 1,05 1,19
be10 Région de Bruxel les-Capita le/Brussels Hoofdstedel i jk Gewestna 1,07 1,19 1,25 1,07 0,98 1,1 0,95 0,83 0,75 0,79 0,76 1,01 1,13
be21 Prov. Antwerpen 0,75 0,78 0,91 1,23 0,78 0,98 0,79 0,77 0,84 0,76 0,76 0,8 1,06 1,16
be22 Prov. Limburg (B) 0,76 0,77 0,88 1,23 0,77 0,96 0,77 0,77 0,92 0,78 0,76 0,84 1,02 1,17
be23 Prov. Oost-Vlaanderen0,76 0,77 0,88 1,24 0,77 0,97 0,78 0,83 0,8 0,75 0,76 0,83 1,03 1,15
be24 Prov. Vlaams Brabant0,78 0,78 0,91 1,25 0,78 0,97 0,78 0,81 0,8 0,75 0,77 0,81 1,05 1,16
41 Normalised indicators: 0,75: minimum sensitivity1,25 maximum sensitivity
(5) Result: Calculation of territorial impact
Linking indicators with territorial units (NUTS2)E1 E2 E3 E10 E11 E12 E13 E14
AT11 Burgenland 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 na 0,00AT12 Niederösterreich 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 na 0,00AT13 Wien 0,00 0,00 -1,06 -0,77 0,00 0,78 na 1,79AT21 Kärnten 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 na 0,00AT22 Steiermark 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 na 0,00AT31 Oberösterreich 0,00 0,00 -0,77 -0,78 0,00 0,81 na 1,78AT32 Salzburg 0,00 0,00 -0,76 -0,99 0,00 0,80 na 1,74AT33 Tirol 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 na 0,00AT34 Vorarlberg 0,00 0,00 -0,78 -1,04 0,00 0,80 na 1,78BE10 Région de Bruxel les -Capita le/Brussels Hoofdstedel i jk Gewestna 0,00 -1,19 -0,75 0,00 0,76 na 1,69BE21 Prov. Antwerpen 0,00 0,00 -0,91 -0,76 0,00 0,80 na 1,74BE22 Prov. Limburg (B) 0,00 0,00 -0,88 -0,78 0,00 0,84 na 1,76BE23 Prov. Oost-Vlaanderen 0,00 0,00 -0,88 -0,75 0,00 0,83 na 1,73BE24 Prov. Vlaams Brabant 0,00 0,00 -0,91 -0,75 0,00 0,81 na 1,74
very high positive impact minor negative impact
high positive impact moderate negative impact
moderate positive impact high negative impact
minor positive impact very high negative impact
no exposure
(6): Plausibility check
(1) The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions?
(2) Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching)
(3) Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure)
(4) What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix)
(5) What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix)
(6) Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check)
(7) Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results)
(8) What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion)
(9) How to communicate the results? (write-up)
(7) Result: Map for each indicator
Effects of Directive on recognition of qualification on migration balance in countries of origin
(8) + (9): Dealing with the results
(1) The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions?
(2) Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching)
(3) Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure)
(4) What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix)
(5) What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix)
(6) Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check)
(7) Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results)
(8) What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion)
(9) How to communicate the results? (write-up)
TIA Quick Check in 2 versions
The standard TIA quick check: • Helps to identify the relevant thematic fields that are
effected by a policy proposal. • Allows to select NUTS2 regions with a potentially high
positive or negative impact. • Helps to set a focus for further and more detailed impact
analysis. The advanced TIA quick check • Allows users to define special indicators describing the
exposure to policy proposals and the regional sensitivity• Provides the technical framework for the vulnerability
analysis• Can serve for a more detailed analysis of a specific
potential impact of policy proposals.
A Standard version and an Advanced version