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Iveta PalkovIBAUnderstanding Rural Population LossEconomic growth in 1990s included rural US (contrast with previous years)Poverty rates declined in rural counties 85% in1989-19991 in 4rural lost pop. In 1990-2000 (5% and more) - many are agricultural, and have no solution for a change3 characteristics likely for loss of pop. 1) Location away from metro areas 2) Low Population Density 3) Low level of natural amenitiesIf these characteristics were included in counties they wouldnt lose people - Industrial agriculture, casinos, prisons helped

Population loss is more than a question of Job AvailabilityEconomic Models - High poverty=Population lossOpportunities decline poverty rises people moveOutmigration - reduces poverty rate and equalizes through areas Two facts refute this model:1st poverty over 20% pop.loss had these conditions for decades2nd theyre distinct areas High Poverty South,Midwest,Native Americans areas (Figure 1)Population Loss Center, Northeast, South High poverty area high school completion is relatively lowPopulation loss in low poverty area people prefer size and density of place

Jobs-decline in urban manufacturing, low paying service sector - workers lacking high school degree (cant expect better wages)-outmigration is diminished - low education areas have population lossPopulation loss areas- have economic base dependent on agriculture (agriculture employs fewer and fewer people)What distinguishes areas of population growth from areas of decline is not the absence of agriculture as much as the lack of other industry

Settlement patterns and the Problem of accessAccess to service is not a problem in or near metro areasNonmetro areas are sufficient for most needsVery thinly settled areas access is a major problemProblem of access increased because people expect greater specialization Problems in remote areas- employment,low wage jobs,employers seek less skilled workersScale to measure county remoteness(by Ghelfi and Parker):Adjacent to a metro area of 1 milion or more peopleAdjacent to a smaller metro areaNot adjacent but with a density of over 10,1 people per square mile Not adjacent but with a density of fewer 10,1 people per square mile

6Ghelfi and Parker distinguish nonadjacent by size of a place,but density may be more important for reasons:-community boundaries are diffuse in rural areas=rural sprawl -people move from town to open county areas even when they dont have to (they often shop in one, work in another and live in neither)-services are often beyond particular communities:health,school etc,span several towns -employers look to local labor market rather than particular town (density more important than town size)-10,1 persons per square mile is lowest density for nonmetro counties-we refer to low density remote counties frontier counties (2persons per square mile)This map (Fig2) - Lake Superior,mountainous regions,east=Few Frotnier Counties - Great plains,Rocky mountain,Center-West=Largely Frontier Counties

Dependence on agriculture reflects less the presence of agriculture than absence of other industriesThird of county is in crops no matter where the county is located

Frontier counties are more likely to be Farming-Dependent -Rarely attract manufacturers or other employers -3% manufacturing-dependent -More likely to lose population (over half had fewer people in 2000 than in 1990, over third lost 5%)

10Natural AmenitiesPeople move to rural areas to enjoy slower paced,community life and for outdoors (lakes,mountains)To measure natural amenities we use 6 items:Average january temperatureJanuary days of sunTemperature in summerLow july humidityPercent of county that is surface waterTopological variationAssociated with a countys change in population and employmentHighest scoring=mountain west,FloridaLowest scoring=North central region (FIG5)

Best cropland-lowest in natural ammenitiesHigher proportion of land in crops-less likely to be recreation county (FIG6)

3 of 4 frontier counties with below average natural amenities classified as farm dependent(fig7)

Population loss in the 1990s was strongly related to both natural amenities and frotnier status70% of frontier counties in 1990-2000 lost over 5%

15Loss in high amenity frontier counties are ascribed to mine closuresFarm dependent counties-location matters-frontier status+low natural amenities=pop.loss (1990-2000)

Sources of population lossWe considered loss with characteristics like remoteness, dependance on farming, low natural amenitiesFrontier counties loss pop. In 1990s (because of quality of life)Reason to move there only for family ties of natural amenitiesSmall labor,low-pay jobs,poverty rate not highDemographics (pop.loss):outmigration,declined birth rate,older population Pop.Loss (nonmetro area)factors:Geography(remoteness)-most sailent,Natural resources base, Socioeconomic(poverty,edu),demography(age 65< )Farm-dependable-pop.loss because of geographyPromoting education in rural areas-outmigration,pop.lossPoverty rate is highly related to young adult high school compeltion rateIf poverty rate exceeds the norm-the greater chance of pop.lossIts not clear to what extent presence of elderly people is reason for pop.loss in past and in future

Why some low-amenity frontier counties gained pop.A quarter (56)of low-amenity counties gained pop. In 1990s12 of them represented a turnaround -Is there lesson to be learned?Research: in 9-casinos opened, in 3-prisons(jobs+inamtes),meatpacking-Growth was hispanic,non hispanic movedIn 2(minesota,wisconsin)-seasonal recreation,second home development9 on interstates or near city gained because of rural sprawlOthers:religious migration,expansion of manufacturingExcept 2nd home and recreation, growth involved new employerRare event in minesota-snowmobile bussines in1954 (5000jobs)Frontier counties-difficult to live and do bussines inIn some cases new amenitites helped growthSummary and ConclusionUS property in1990s didnt extend in many rural areas-high poverty,pop.loss (declining emplyment)Farm dependent are more likely to lose pop. (remote,low density,low nat,amenities)High poverty (missisipi,apalachia,North,Iowa,Southwest minesota)-low natural amenities scaleFrontier counties-must develop recreation or will lsoe more peopleInternet may help isolation, but the want to move to city with more density will probably not go awayThank you for your attention.