U n i t e d n at i o n s C o n f e r e n C e o n t r a d e a n d d e v e l o p m e n t

UNCTA

DUNITED NATIONS

UNCTAD ESTIMATES OF GLOBAL E-COMMERCE 2018

UNCTAD Technical Notes on ICT for Development N˚15

UNCTAD ESTIMATES OF GLOBAL E-COMMERCE 2018

1 Global e-commerce continued to grow in 2018

1.1 New methodology for estimating e-commerce value

Measuring the value of electronic commerce remains a challenge. Although more governments are now collecting information on e-commerce, most countries still do not publish official statistics in this area. Those that publish data on the value of e-commerce sometimes do not follow international guidelines and statistics are often revised.

To take account of recent developments, UNCTAD has adapted its methodology for estimating global e-commerce. Due to the changes to the methodology as well as country revisions to their 2017 data, e-commerce estimates presented in this note are not directly comparable with estimates published by UNCTAD in previous years.1 Many more countries publish business to consumer (B2C) than business to business (B2B) e-commerce value data. Global B2C e-commerce value is estimated based on the GDP share of the countries with B2C value data. These countries accounted for 92% of global GDP in 2018. Global e-commerce sales are estimated based on the ratio of B2C to total e-commerce for those countries with data on total e-commerce, which represented 71% of global GDP in 2018.

1.2 E-commerce sales up eight per cent in 2018, led by B2C sales

UNCTAD estimates that the global value of e-commerce sales (B2B and B2C) reached almost $26 trillion in 2018, accounting for 30% of GDP and representing an increase of 8% from 2017 ($23.8 trillion based on revised methodology) (see Table 1). The United States remains by far the largest e-commerce market. The value of global B2B e-commerce was $21 trillion, representing 83% of all e-commerce, including includes both sales over online market platforms and electronic data interchange transactions. B2C e-commerce value was $4.4 trillion in 2018, increasing by 16% over 2017. The top three countries by B2C e-commerce sales were China, the United States and the United Kingdom.

1 The adjusted methodology implied a downward revision of global overall and B2B e-commerce sales and a slight (2%) downward adjustment of global B2C e-commerce. For more information on methodology and sources, see last section in this note.

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Table 1: E-commerce sales: Top ten countries by 2018

Rank Economy

Total e-commerce

sales ($ billion)

Share of total e-commerce sales

in GDP (%)

B2B e-commerce

sales ($ billion)

Share of B2B e-commerce sales

in total e-commerce (%)

B2C e-commerce

sales ($ billion)

1 United States 8,640 42 7,542 87 1,098

2 Japan 3,280 66 3,117 95 163

3 China 2,304 17 943 41 1,361

4 Korea (Rep.) 1,364 84 1,263 93 102

5 United Kingdom 918 32 652 71 266

6 France 807 29 687 85 121

7 Germany 722 18 620 86 101

8 Italy 394 19 362 92 32

9 Australia 348 24 326 94 21

10 Spain 333 23 261 78 72

10 above 19,110 35 15,772 83 3,338

World 25,648 30 21,258 4,390

Source: UNCTAD, based on national sources. Note: Figures in italics are UNCTAD estimates.

1.3 Top 20 economies by B2C e-commerce sales

Developing and transition economies account for about half of the top 20 economies by B2C e-commerce sales in 2018 (see Table 2). In relation to GDP, B2C e-commerce is the largest in Hong Kong (China), China and the United Kingdom, and the smallest in India, Brazil and the Russian Federation. Among the top 20 economies, the extent to which Internet users engage in online purchases varies considerably. For example, in 2018, 87% of Internet users shopped online in the United Kingdom, as compared with only 14% in Thailand and 11% in India.

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Table 2: B2C e-commerce sales: Top 20 economies , 2018

Rank Economy

B2C e-commerce

sales ($ billion)

Share of B2C e-commerce

sales in GDP (%)

Online shoppers (million)

Online shoppers (% of Internet users)

1 China 1,361 10.0 610 73

2 United States 1,091 5.3 189 80

3 United Kingdom

266 9.3 41 87

4 Japan 163 3.3 49 49

5 France 109 3.9 36 75

6 Korea (Rep.) 102 6.3 27 60

7 Germany 101 2.6 54 82 8 Spain 72 5.1 21 62

9 Canada* 44 2.6 24 84

10 Hong Kong, China

38 10.4 2 38

11 Italy 32 1.6 18 47

12 Netherlands 28 3.1 12 84 13 Thailand 27 5.3 5 14

14 Mexico 26 2.1 24 33

15 Ireland 22 5.7 2 70

16 Australia 21 1.5 12 73

17 Russian Federation

20 1.2 30 34

18 Malaysia 19 6.0 15 53

19 India 17 0.6 27 11

20 Brazil 15 0.8 39 34

20 above 3,574 5.3 1,193 55

Source: UNCTAD, based on sources mentioned in section 3 on methodology and data sources. Note. Data for some economies are from supply-side surveys that include overseas sales (exports) but not overseas purchases. Data for other economies are from demand-side surveys that include purchases by consumers from overseas (imports) but not foreign sales by companies. Hence the data are not directly comparable and should therefore be interpreted carefully.

1.4 Leading B2C e-commerce companies based mostly in China and United States

The world’s top 10 B2C companies in 2018 generated almost $2 trillion in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) (Table 3) and are all headquartered in North America or East Asia. Alibaba (China) was far ahead with a GMV of $866 billion in 2018, followed by Amazon (United States) with $277 billion. However, in terms of revenue, JD.com (China) and Amazon were ahead of Alibaba.

More than half of the companies earned revenue primarily from goods sold over their platforms. Shopify is a particular case as it provides e-commerce enabled web sites for companies that want to have a direct presence rather than (or in combination with) using a third-party marketplace. Services-based companies figure prominently in the table, particularly those related to travel, such as Expedia and Bookings Holdings (properties include Booking.com, Kayak and Agoda). Ride hailing company Uber generated almost $50 billion of gross bookings in 2018.

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Table 3: Top 10 B2C e-commerce companies by GMV, 2018

Rank Company Based in Industry

B2C revenue

($ million) GMV

($ million) Margin

(%)

1 Alibaba China E-commerce 40,383 865,634 4.7 2 Amazon United States E-commerce 59,372 277,000 21.4

3 JD.com China E-commerce 69,834 253,463 27.6

4 Expedia United States Internet Media & Services 11,223 99,727 11.3

5 eBay United States E-commerce 10,746 94,580 11.4

6 Booking Holdings

United States Internet Media & Services 14,527 92,731 15.7

7 Meituan Dianping China E-commerce 9,859 77,933 12.7

8 Uber United States Internet Media & Services 11,270 49,799 22.6

9 Shopify Canada Internet Media & Services 1,073 41,103 2.6

10 Rakuten Japan E-commerce 3,740 30,836 12.1

Top 10 232,028 1,882,806 12.3 Source: UNCTAD, based on company reports. Note: GMV = Gross Merchandise Volume, Margin = B2C revenue as a share of GMV.

1.5 Cross-border B2C e-commerce

UNCTAD estimates that cross-border B2C e-commerce sales amounted to $404 billion in 2018, representing an increase of 7% over 2017. This is based on sales for the top ten economies by merchandise exports (Table 4). Cross-border sales are estimated to be almost 10% of total B2C e-commerce sales. In Hong Kong (China) they amounted to 94%, with the majority of B2C e-commerce sales being re-exports from the mainland.

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Table 4: Cross border B2C e-commerce sales: Top ten merchandise exporters, 2018

Rank Economy

Cross-border B2C e-commerce sales

($ billion)

Share of cross-border B2C e-commerce sales

in merchandise exports (%)

Share of cross-border B2C sales in

total B2C e-commerce sales (%)

1 China 100 4.0 7.3

2 United States 85 5.1 7.8

3 United Kingdom 40 8.2 15.0 4 Hong Kong, China 35 6.2 94.3

5 Japan 21 2.9 13.1

6 Germany 15 1.0 14.9

7 France 12 2.0 10.6

8 Italy 4 0.8 13.9 9 Korea (Rep.) 3 0.5 3.2

10 Netherlands 1 0.2 4.4

Ten above 317 3.2 9.6

World 404 2.1 Source: UNCTAD estimates based on national sources,

2 More than 1.4 billion people shopped online in 2018

UNCTAD estimates that 1.45 billion people, or one quarter of the world’s population aged 15 and older, made purchases online in 2018 (Figure 1). This is 9% higher than in 2017. China had the largest number of online shoppers at 610 million. While the bulk of online shoppers mainly buy from domestic suppliers, some 330 million online shoppers made cross-border purchases in 2018—a little more than one in five of all online shoppers. The interest in buying from foreign suppliers continued to expand. The share of cross-border online shoppers to all online shoppers rose from 17% in 2016 to 23% in 2018.

Figure 1. Global online shoppers (million), 2016-2018

Source: UNCTAD, based on national data.

914 1,055 1,122

200

277 330 1,114

1,332 1,452

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2016 2017 2018

Global online shoppers (million)

Domestic Cross border Total shoppers

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3 Methodology and data sources

3.1 Global estimates

Global B2C e-commerce sales were estimated based on the GDP share (92%) of countries with data on B2C e-commerce. Data on total e-commerce were available for countries representing 71% of global GDP. To estimate global e-commerce sales UNCTAD used the ratio of B2C to total e-commerce for those countries.

Global cross-border B2C e-commerce sales were estimated based on the total B2C sales of the top ten merchandise exporters.

Global number of online shoppers was estimated based on the top 25 economies representing 90% of all online shoppers.

3.2 Data sources

GDP and annual average exchange rates were sourced from the World Bank.2 Merchandise exports were sourced from the World Trade Organization.3 Company data were sourced from their respective annual financial reports. Sources for the proportion of online shoppers are from national surveys. Sources for data in Tables 1, 2 and 4 are shown below.

3.2.1 Australia

Total e-commerce is sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and refers to Internet income encapsulating all B2B and B2C orders.4 Data on B2C e-commerce are from the National Australia Bank.5 As the latest Internet income data are from 2017, estimates for 2018 were based on the proportion of B2C in total Internet income.

3.2.2 Brazil

B2C e-commerce sales are from Ebit|Nielsen based on a demand survey.6

3.2.3 Canada

Data on B2C e-commerce sales are from Statistics Canada, based on a demand survey.7

2 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD and https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.ATLS 3 https://timeseries.wto.org 4 Australian Bureau of Statistics. 2018. "8166.0 - Summary of IT Use and Innovation in Australian Business, 2016-17." https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8166.0 5 National Australia Bank. 2019. "NAB Online Retail Sales Index December 2018." https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/NAB-Online-Retail-Sales-Index-December-18-.pdf 6 Nielsen. 2019. "E-Commerce Fatura R$53,2 Bilhões Em 2018, Alta De 12%." Artigo, 21 February. https://www.nielsen.com/br/pt/insights/article/2019/e-commerce-fatura-53-bilhoes-em-2018-alta-de-12-por-cento/

7 Statistics Canada. 2019. "Online shopping in Canada, 2018." Just the Facts, 2 December. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/89-28-0001/2018001/article/00016-eng.htm#data

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3.2.4 China

Official statistics for B2C8 and total9 e-commerce are available from the Chinese Bureau of Statistics. There are no regularly published official data on the value of cross-border e-commerce, which were derived from Alibaba's export sales.10 Alibaba had a 64% B2C market share in 2018.

3.2.5 France

Official statistics for e-commerce value are available from the national statistics office.11 Cross-border e-commerce sales were estimated on the basis of exports by non-store online retailers in 2015.12

3.2.6 Germany

In Germany, official data consist of only percentage data (i.e., e-commerce as a percentage of turnover) reported by Eurostat. B2C data were sourced from the industry association (BEVH)13 and overall e-commerce and B2B sales were based on the percentage of B2C turnover from e-commerce. Cross-border e-commerce was estimated on reported cross-border sales from the second and third largest B2C companies in the country.14

3.2.7 Hong Kong, China

E-commerce value data are available from the Census and Statistics Department.15 Cross-border sales were derived by subtracting estimated consumer online spending from B2C sales. B2C e-commerce sales data are based on supply survey.

3.2.8 India

B2C e-commerce value is estimated based on the sales by the top two B2C companies.16

8 Statistical Communiqué of the People's Republic of China on the 2018 National Economic and Social Development. http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201902/t20190228_1651335.html 9 http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=C01 10 Alibaba Group Holding Limited. 2019. Form 20-F. https://otp.investis.com/clients/us/alibaba/SEC/sec-show.aspx?Type=html&FilingId=13476929&CIK=0001577552&Index=10000 11 Insee. 2020. "Les TIC et le commerce électronique dans les entreprises en 2019." https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/4464231 12 Direction generale des douanes et droits indirects. 2016. Le secteur de la vente a distance se developpe a l’international." Etudes et eclairages, October. https://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/fichiers/etudes/tableaux/ee_70.pdf 13 BEVH. 2019. "Herzlich Willkommen Zum Jahrespressegesprach 2019." https://www.bevh.org/fileadmin/content/05_presse/Pressemitteilungen_2019/190122_PK_Pra__sentation_FINAL.pdf 14 According to EHI Retail Institute, Amazon, Otto and Zalando are the three top e-commerce sites by sales (https://www.ehi.org/de/top-100-umsatzstaerkste-onlineshops-in-deutschland/). Otto and Zalando reports were analyzed to determine the share of foreign sales. See: https://corporate.zalando.com/en/investor-relations and https://www.ottogroup.com/en/die-otto-group/daten-fakten/Annual_Reports.php . 15 Census and Statistics Department. 2020. "Report on the Survey on Information Technology Usage and Penetration in the Business Sector for 2019." https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp120.jsp?productCode=B1110005 16 Daniel Keyes. 2019. "Flipkart is poised to overtake Amazon in India by 2023." Business Insider, 29 March. https://www.businessinsider.com/flipkart-will-overtake-amazon-india-2019-3?international=true&r=US&IR=T

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3.2.9 Ireland

B2C e-commerce sales are from the Central Bank of Ireland and based on credit card transactions.17

3.2.10 Italy

B2C value including cross-border sales and purchases was compiled by the School of Management Politecnico di Milano.18 B2B and total e-commerce were derived from the B2C ratio based on EUROSTAT percentages.

3.2.11 Japan

Official statistics for both B2C and B2B are available from METI.19 Cross-border sales and purchases are also available from METI but only for trade with China and the United States.

3.2.12 Malaysia

Data on B2C e-commerce sales refer to 2017 and are from the Department of Statistics.20

3.2.13 Mexico

Data on B2C e-commerce sales are from Asociación de Internet MX and based on a demand survey.21

3.2.14 Netherlands

The Netherlands is among the top ten merchandise exporters. B2C consumer spending was sourced from the industry association.22 Cross-border sales were estimated based on the export revenue of the second largest online shop.23

17 Central Bank of Ireland. 2019. "Credit and Debit Card Statistics – Q4 2018." Statistical Release, 14 February. https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/credit-and-debit-card-statistics/2018q4_ie_credit_debit_cards.pdf?sfvrsn=12

18 Osservatori Digital Innovation del Politecnico di Milano. 2018. "Ecommerce B2c: Cresce Il Mercato, Ma Anche Il Valore?" https://www.osservatori.net/it_it/osservatori/comunicati-stampa/ecommerce-b2c-crescita-mercato-2018 19 Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). 2019 “Results of FY2018 E-Commerce Market Survey Compiled.” News Release, 16 May. https://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2019/0516_003.html 20 Department of Statistics. 2019. "Statistics on Usage of ICT and E-Commerce by Establishment 2018." Press Release, 14 May. https://www.dosm.gov.my/v1/index.php?r=column/pdfPrev&id=U3FYOHJ3cE90UnNWMWdUaVMzRElKdz09

21 Asociación de Internet MX. 2019. "Estudio de Comercio Electrónico en México 2019." https://www.asociaciondeinternet.mx/estudios/comercio-electronico

22 Thuiswinkel. 2019. "Market Monitor 2018." https://www.thuiswinkel.org/data/uploads/marktonderzoeken/thuiswinkel_markt_monitor/Infographic_Thuiswinkel_Markt_Monitor_2018_FY_2018.pdf 23 Cool Blue. 2019. Yearbook 2018. https://www.coolblue.nl/en/c/yearbook.html

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3.2.15 Republic of Korea

B2C value data including cross-border sales and purchases are available from the national statistical office.24 As it stopped publishing B2B statistics several years ago (last available data are from 2013), total e-commerce was estimated based on the ratio to GDP in 2013 (84%).

3.2.16 Russian Federation

B2C e-commerce sales are estimates by the Ecommerce Foundation.25

3.2.17 Spain

Official value statistics for B2C and B2B are available from the National Statistical Institute.26

3.2.18 Thailand

Data on B2C e-commerce sales are based on figures sourced to the Electronic Transaction Development Agency and based on a supply survey.27

3.2.19 United Kingdom

Official value statistics for B2C and B2B are available from the Office of National Statistics.28 Cross-border data were estimated on the basis of SME online export sales.29

3.2.20 United States

Overall figures for e-commerce in four key industries are published by US Census Bureau (latest data available for 2017).30 These were added together for total e-commerce. B2C e-commerce was derived from retail e-commerce sales and the estimated proportion of B2C in the services

24 Statistics Korea. 2018. Online Shopping in December and 2018 (Including Overseas Direct Online Sales and Purchases in the Fourth Quarter and 2018). http://kostat.go.kr/portal/eng/pressReleases/3/5/index.board?bmode=read&bSeq=&aSeq=374375&pageNo=2&rowNum=10&navCount=10&currPg=&searchInfo=&sTarget=title&sTxt= 25 Ecommerce Foundation. 2019. "Ecommerce Report: Russia 2019." https://www.ecommercewiki.org/reports/803/ecommerce-report-russia-2019

26 Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE). 2019. "Encuesta de uso de TIC y Comercio Electrónico (CE) en las empresas 2018-2019." https://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/es/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736176743&menu=resultados&idp=1254735576799 27 Suchit Leesa-Nguansuk. 2019. "E-commerce grows 14%, highest in Asean." Bangkok Post, 5 February. https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1623714/e-commerce-grows-14-highest-in-asean

28 Office of National Statistics (ONS). 2018. “E-commerce and ICT activity, UK: 2018.” https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/itandinternetindustry/bulletins/ecommerceandictactivity/2018 29 WorldFirst. 2017. Rise of the Global iStreet. https://www.worldfirst.com/downloads/rise_of_the_global_istreet.pdf 30 United States Census Bureau. 2019. E-Stats 2017: Measuring the Electronic Economy. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/estats.html. Note that the definition of e-commerce revenues for the services industry was revised in 2017 and is not comparable with previous years. See: Census Bureau. "New Data Series for Revenue from Electronic Sources to Replace E-commerce." 20 August 2018. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/sas/newsroom/updates/new-data-series-for-revenue-from-electronic-sources-to-replace-e.html

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industry total e-commerce (based on the proportion of B2C sales by the service industry in the United Kingdom). Cross border data were estimated based on available bilateral data (i.e., Canada, China, Japan and Republic of Korea).

UNCTA

DUNITED NATIONS

Issue 15

UNCTAD Technical Notes on ICT for Development

1. Implications of Applying the New Definition of «ICT Goods», May 2011

2. Updating the Partnership Definition of ICT Goods From HS 2007 to HS 2012, January 2014

3. International Trade in ICT Services and ICT-enabled Services: Proposed Indicators from the Partnership on Measuring ICT for Development, October 2015

4. Global Assessment of Sex-disaggregated ICT Employment Statistics: Data Availability and Challenges on Measurement and Compilation, December 2015

5. Trade in ICT Goods and the 2015 Expansion of the WTO Information Technology Agreement, December 2015

6. In Search of Cross-border E-commerce Trade Data, April 2016

7. UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index 2016, April 2016

8. The «New» Digital Economy and Development, October 2017

9. UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index 2017, October 2017

10. Updating the Partnership Definition of ICT Goods From HS 2012 to HS 2017, February 2018

11. Implementing a Survey on Exports of ICT-enabled Services, June 2018

12. UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index 2018: Focus on Africa, December 2018

13. Donor Support to the Digital Economy in Developing Countries, March 2019

14. UNCTAD B2C E-COMMERCE INDEX 2019, December 2019

For more information about UNCTAD›s work on ICT for Development please contact:

ICT Policy SectionDivision on Technology and Logisticswww.unctad.org/ict4dict4d@unctad.org