Unclassified

Climate Change Impacts Relevant to National Security

Overview of Materials Provided in Support of the Quadrennial Defense Review

August 14th 2009

Oak Ridge National LaboratoryOak Ridge National LaboratoryClimate Change Science TeamClimate Change Science Team

22 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

AgendaAgenda

Tasks and Products Current challenges in climate change science Approach Examples of results Questions, Discussion, and Web Portal

Demonstration

Unclassified

33 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

The Requirement…The Requirement…

From the FY08 National Defense Authorization Act:

SEC. 951. “DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE CONSIDERATION OF EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DEPARTMENT FACILITIES, CAPABILITIES, AND MISSIONS”

''The first Quadrennial Defense Review prepared after the date of the enactment of this subsection shall also examine the capabilities of the armed forces to respond to the consequences of climate change, in particular, preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events and other missions the armed forces may be asked to support inside the United States and overseas. ''

Unclassified

44 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Our Tasks:Our Tasks: Create reports that assess potential

impacts to security-relevant topics such as water scarcity, migration of people, food shortages, and increased natural disasters…

Create visualizations of projections based on IPCC scenarios…

Address potential natural disasters due to climate change and their potential impact on DoD operations…

Provide specifically-focused assessments on Russia, India, China, Korea, the Arctic Sea, NORTHCOM coastal environments, and Guam…

Identify low-likelihood ‘shocks’ to the global climate system…

A web-based framework to disseminate the results…

55 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

Climate change science challenges

Occurring but difficult to assign attribution to individual events

“Dangerous” temperature increase may occur by mid-century

Mitigation won’t happen fast enough to avoid significant change

Planning for adaptation is essential

Uncertainties are present– Model– Data– Theory

We are working on these problems with our partners

66 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

Climate change projections have recognized uncertainties

Projections from various sources show ranges of possible futures, and

Impact assessment is limited both by multiple stresses and limited knowledge of thresholds

Accordingly, the assessments should be considered illustrations of likely conditions, not quantitative predictions of impacts

77 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

Hazards increase with time and severity of scenario

Vulnerability is the exposure and sensitivity to adverse consequences– Specific to locality– Related to prior experience, resistance, resilience,

adaptation– Correlated with poverty, population, governance– Areas vulnerable today will be vulnerable in (at

least the near) future New areas of vulnerability will occur where resiliency has

not been addressed sufficiently for new hazards or increased frequency or intensity of existing ones

We mainly addressed the hazards in this study, not the vulnerability

88 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

Parameters addressed in our study

Temperature

Water Resources– Precipitation

– Water Availability: Precipitation - Evaporation (P-E)

Extreme Events– Heat Waves: average intensity of nighttime highs

– Floods: Intensity of recurrence rainfall events (PEVI)

– Droughts: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

– Fire, tropical storms, and landslides

99 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

Basis for Analyses

A1FI, A1B, and B1 scenarios

Simulation data from state-of-the-science US climate model (CCSM3)

AR4 and subsequent peer-reviewed literature

Spatial Representations– Grid-based analysis at CCSM resolution (150km)– Interpolation for visual analysis– Decadal annual averages (e.g., 2030 = 2025-2034)– Baseline for decadal changes is 2005 decade (2000-

2009)

1010 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

CCSM3: High-quality model that was part of the IPCC AR4 21-member ensemble

Statistics of annual mean responses to the SRES A1B scenario, for 2080 to 2099 relative to 1980 to 1999

Y axis shows the level of relative agreement as a function of scale (logarithmic on the X-axis) among the models for temperature and precipitation

Models agree across all scales of the projected temperature changes, but the agreement for precipitation decreases significantly at local to regional scales

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.3

Temperature

Precipitation

Rela

tive

agre

emen

t

Local 1.25 2.5 5 10 Hem. Global

Scale (1000 km)

(Adapted from Fig 10-27 of the IPCC AR4)

1111 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

Assessments by COCOM AOR For each AOR:

– Projected Climate Change Overall ‘Hotspots’ – Geographical areas of significant climate

change that merit special attention or concern

– Climate Consequences

– Implications

– Assessment

Focus Regions within the AOR– Will include Arctic Ocean, Pacific Islands (e.g.,

Guam), CONUS Coastal Regions

1212 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

NORTHCOM: Intensification of droughts

2100 A1FI

Water Availability

Index

General shift in Atlantic hurricane intensity might be expected by 2100 for A1FI

The desertification in western U.S. can be contrasted with wetter conditions in the southeast U.S.

Warming largest in winter

Water scarcity and wildfires

1313 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

EUCOM: Heat waves in western and floods in northern and eastern Europe

Even the moderate A1B scenario projects water issues in Spain and Portugal as early as 2030

Geographic shifts in agricultural productivity

2030 A1B Precipitation

2030 A1B Drought Index

1414 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

PACOM: Sea level rise is #1 concern

Australia: Hotter and drier– Increased fire risk

Mainland Asia: More precipitation and higher intensity– Increased flood risk

Southeast Asia: Increased rainfall– Landslides increase with

population-driven deforestation

Largest population at risk– Island nations– Migration of people

2100 A1FI Water Availability

2100 A1FI Temperature Change

1515 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

AFRICOM: Geographical shifts of wet/dry conditions

Shifts in seasonality of wet/dry ecology– Agricultural benefits

– Serengeti ecosystems at risk

Potential for changes in distribution of vector-borne diseases

Lowest ability for adaptation

2100 A1FI Temperature Change

2100 A1FI Precipitation

1616 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

CENTCOM: Decrease in growing-season precipitation central Asia

Arabian peninsula gets wetter– But greater level of

uncertainty due to systematic model error

Coherent evidence of increased flooding hazard in northern Pakistan

2050 A1FI Drought Index

2030 A1B Drought Index

1717 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

SOUTHCOM: Geographical shifts of wet/dry conditions

Drying in southern regions during growing season– Reduced agricultural

productivity

Extreme storms impact Central America and Caribbean more than elsewhere

Shifts in seasonality of wet/dry conditions– Ecosystems at risk

2050 A1FI Drought Index

2030 A1B Drought Index

1818 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

UnclassifiedPACOM_07/16/08_Christe

nsen

Present Sea LevelPresent Sea LevelSea Level Rise 2100 (estimated maximum) ~.9 mSea Level Rise 2100 (estimated maximum) ~.9 mSea Level Rise 2100 Plus High TideSea Level Rise 2100 Plus High Tide

Guam: Relatively low risk to infrastructure

1919 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

Arctic: Severe loss of sea ice

Retreat of sea ice from Russian coastal areas– Increase in coastal

erosion

Permafrost degradation– May impact oil

production

2050 A1FI Temperature

Difference

2020 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified 20

To Summarize

Climate change impacts vary considerably from region to region, but no region is without risks and vulnerabilities

Shifts in geographical and seasonal patterns of wet/dry conditions are consistent concerns across UCC’s

The main topical interests over the next several decades are probably the Arctic, coastal vulnerabilities, and water scarcity/drought in some areas

Looking out toward 2050 and beyond, there are particular concerns about Africa, coastal and interior parts of Asia, and island nations

If climate change is severe rather than modest, many areas will be very seriously affected later in this century

Unclassified

Questions,

Discussion, and

Demo of Web Portal

2222 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

The QDR Web Portal

http://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/QDR/

Unclassified

Back-Up Materials

2424 Managed by UT-Battellefor the U.S. Department of Energy

Unclassified

2008 emissions increased less than the 2000-2006 average: 2009 expected to be real decrease from 2008 (Le Quéré et al., submitted)