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JNOEPENDENTjPRODüCTION^OSTJSTIMATE:

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GERALD^CALAL^ iOSEPH/^OBINSON LAURENCE/STOLL /

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, for thl« document nfrft deferred to 7 COST ANALYSIS DIVISION (DRSAR-CPE)

HEADQUARTERS, U.S. ARMY ARMAMENT MATERIEL READINESS COMMAND ROCK ISLAND, ILLINOIS QmtJ

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ABSTRACT

-^Parametric estimating of the recurring investment costs for tank main armament systems has recently been improved with new modeling techniques, as well as with an improved data base. This report illustrates the use of such estimating techniques as prepared for the XM1 Tank Main Armament Evaluation CWAE)- It also expands parametric estimating techniques to white phosphorous (WP), antipersonnel (APERS), and target practice discarding sabot (TPDS) rounds. -. - ■ ^

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INnEPENDENT PRODUCTION COST ESTIMATE:

XM1 TANK MAIN ARMAMENT EVALUATION

November 1977

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE

I. INTRODUCTION

A. Purpose 1

B. Scope 1

C. Organization of the Study 1

D. Acknowledgements , 1

II. STUDY RESULTS

A. Tables 2

B. Discussion of the Results 9

III. SUPPLEMENTAL DATA

A. Production Schedules and Requirements 12

B. Independent Variables 16

C. Average Unit Costs 20

IV. METHODOLOGY

A. Average Unit Cost for Gun Manufacture 57

1. Cost Estimating Relationship 37

2. Inflation 38

3. Adjustment for Smoothbore Gun 38

4. Adjustment for Bore Evacuation System 38

5. Costs for Product Assurance and Engineering Support 38

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B. Ammunition Manufacturing Costs 39

1. General Approach 39

2. Cost Estimating Relationships 41

3. Complexity Factors 4S

4. Throughput 50

REFERENCES 52

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& I. INTRODUCTION

A. Purpose: v

discussed in reference 12, the requirement for ani Independent t^rftAnf Unit Production Cost)(IlIPC) was first presented to DRSAR-CPE by infonnal

"Tasking, 26 Sep 77T The purpose of the IlIPC is to provide a test of reasonableness for the engineering cost estimates included in the Cost, Schedule, Logistics, and Standardization (CSLS) impact portion of the XM1 tank main armament evaluation (TMAE) for the XM1 Project Manager. As a test of reasonableness, maximum reliance is placed upon use of parametric estimating techniques. The parametric procedures used empha- size the interrelation between US design philosophy and manufacturing cost. No adjustment has been made to compensate for such differences between the various options, thus the costs can be said to represent Americanized versions of the foreign guns and ammunition for the 120mm options. Reference 1 is used to estimate ammunition parametrically. Where data are available, current production experience is used. Only four of the 24 rounds were not estimated parametrically. The M68 cannon and breech assembly were provided at latest funded cost. The two remaining weapons were estimated parametrically using the data base provided with reference 3.

C6 r/t. B. Scope:

^ The options covered in this study are: the US option using the 105mm M68 gun, the United Kingdom's-pÄ» 12Omm rifled gun, and the Federal Republic of Germany's GE 120nm smoothbore gun. Each gup is furnished M appropriate family of ammunition. The scope of the weaôn'jÛPîs limited to the recurring unit manufacturing cost of the cannon and oreech assemblies including engineering and product assurance support, but excluding first destination transportation. TTie ammunition cost excludes the cost of Government engineering and quality assurance support, but includes first destination transportation, K^—

C. Organization of the Study:

The study results at the sunmary level are shown and discussed in Section II. The detailed input data in support of the summary are at Section III. Finally, detailed discussion of estimating methodology is provided in Section IV. Unless otherwise noted, all costs are stated in FY 77 dollars.

D. Acknowledgements:

This study could not have been completed without the suggestions and assistance provided by the following individuals. Mrs. Marcia Waldron was responsible for the typing of most of the study, and her meticulous attention to detail and precise rendering of complicated formulas was greatly appreciated. Mrs. Ellen Trollan, Mrs. Paula Gomez, and Mrs. Marlene Manning provided additional typing and clerical support, without which the study could not have been completed.

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II. STUnY RESULTS

l\. Tables.

Tables 2 throunh 6 contain studv results.

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f B. DiscussiOT of the Results

1. General:

a. The unit costs shown in Table 1 indicate that the greater weight of the 120nin GE cannon and breech assembly overbalances the effects of the higher momentum levels generated by the UK ammunition.

b. Overall, the differences between the two 120mm aranunition options are insignificant. The UK multipurpose and matched practice rounds cost slightly more than the GE equivalents because of higher propellant and transportation costs. The GE APFSDS round offsets this however, because of the use of a heavier penetrator.

2. A number of potential conditions in the ammunition estimates require sensitivity analysis. They are: inflation of tungsten prices, design of the multipurpose round, use of stick vs granular prcpellant, and use of a DU penetrator rather than tungsten for the 120nm options.

a. Inflation of Tungsten Prices - The 1.17 inflator provided in the referenced inflation guidance (references 4 and 5) understates the inflation of tungsten prices that has actually taken place since FY 75. The reference 1 FY 75 cost of $10.73, when compared to a FY 77 quote of $13.75 received by LCWSL, results in a more correct inflator of 1.28.

The effect this has on the APFSDS round is as follows:

CD The German 120mm APFSDS.

Adjusted Est. Original Est. % Increase

Proj. Metal Parts $246.089 225.619

9.1%

(2) The British 120mm APFSDS.

Adjusted Est. Original Est. % Increase

Proj. Metal Parts 5231.841 212.556

9.11

Total Round $432.863 412.393

5.01

Total Round $419.895 400.610

4.81

Total Program $629.AM 604.IM 4.IS

Total Program $611 ar— 589.8M

4.0%

b. Design of the Multipurpose Round - This round may incur cost increases resulting fron designs still under consideration which will effect the cost of explosive fill and LAP. The resulting increases could accumulate to 25 percent and are as follows:

Estimated unit cost plus 25 percent;

New unit cost

US 105mm $132.630

33.158

$165.788

' Total program increase $156.7 million

9

UK 120nin $186.101

46.525

$232.626

$219.4 million

GE 120nin $185.436

46.359

$231.795

$218.6 million

^

c. Use of Stick vs Granular Propellant - In order to retain the ballistic integrity of the German 120mm HP and MP-TP rounds, personnel at LC1VSL agree that the stick propel lant should be used instead of granular propellant. The parametric estimating relationships used in this study consider only granular propellant. Once the manufacturing process for stick propellant has been established in country and stabilized (12-18 months), the stick propellant should be about 50 percent more expensive than the average 430 granular propellant. Current estimated unit costs for these rounds are:

Total round Propellant

TP-MP «100.615 21.784

Increasing the total round unit cost by adding SO percent more cost for propellant changes the above costs as follows:

Total round I Increase

_MP IT90Ö2

6.91

TP-MP Hll. 507

10.81

d. Total program increase $ 12.1 million $111.7 million

- Use of DU Penetrators for the 120mm Options - The use of tungsten alloy penetrators in the APFSDS round is significantly more costly than DU penetrators. Thus, the extra cost of the two 120mm options may be falsely attributed to bore size change when compared to the cost of the 105mm DU APFSDS round. This is shown below:

Tungsten DU

I Difference

UK 120mm UOO.610 334.479

19.8%

HE 120mm S412.39T ."542.199

20.51

Using the DU penetrator rather than tungsten penetrator would produce lower program costs as follows:

For the German round $85.2 million decrease For the British round $80.3 million decrease

Use of a 120mm DU penetrator reduces the cost advantage attributable to the 105mm option as follows:

120W Increased Cost From 105mm DU

UK GF

Tungsten ■ sir-- 561

DU

29%

10

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III. SUPPLEMENTAL DATA

Supplemental data pertaining to production schedules and requirements, independent variables, and average unit costs follow in Tables 7 through 26 inclusive.

NOTE: A component cost breakout for the US APFSDS round will be later in a classified annex. provided

11

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PRODUCTION SCHEDULES AND REQUIREMENTS

( 12

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TABLE 7

AMMUNITION PRODUCTION SCHEDUI.ES

YEAR END CUMULATIVE TOTALS IN THOUSANDS

MP AFFSDS WP/SMOKE APERS TPFSDS MP-TP

US Only

1983 189.0 204.6 13.0 3.0 284.0 503.0

1985 567.0 613.8 30.0 9.0 852.0 1509.0

199A 945.0 1023.0 226.0 15.0 3408.0 6036.0

2007 525.0 7100.0 12575.0

US Phaseout

1988 90.0 77.6

1985 270.0 232.8

1994 450.0 388.0

2007

UK/GE

1983

1985

1994

2007

98.0 127.0

294.0 381.0

943.0 1214.0

8.0

24.0

70.0

271.0 480.0

665.0 1178.0

1307.0 2315.0

13.0 23.0

46.0 10.0 186.0 330.0

253.0 36.0 2097.0 3715.0

552.0 5789.0 10254.0

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COMPONENT REQUIREMENTS

YEAR END CUMULATIVE TOTALS IN THOUSANDS

UK/GE US ONLY

LAP/Projectiles

MP

1983 98.0 189.0 * 1985 294.0 567.0

1994

2C07

943.0 945.0

• APFSDS

1983 127.0 204.6 1985 381.0 613.8 1994 1214.0 1023.0 2007

WP/SMOKE

1983 13.0 1985 46.0 39.0 1994 253.0 226.0 2007 552.0 525.0

APERS

1983 3.0 1985 10.0 9.0 1994 36.0 15.0 2007

TPFSDS

* 1983 13.0 284.0 1985 186.0 852.0 1994 2097.0 3408.0 2007 5789.0 7100.0

MP-TP

1983 23.0 503.0 1985 330.0 1509.0 1994 3715.0 6036.0 2007 10254.0 12575.0

US PHASEOUT

90.0 270.0

450.0

77.6

232.8 388.0

8.0 24.0

70.0

271.0

665.0

1307.0

480.0

1178.0 2315.0

TABLE 8 Cont'd

ÜK/GE US ONLY

Cases/Electric Primers

1983 261.0 1196.6

1985 1247.0 3589.8

1994 8258.0 11653.0

2007 18788.0 22183.0

Fuzes

PIBP (MR)

1983 98.0 189.0

1985 294.0 567.0

1994 943.0 945.0

2007

PD (WP/SMOKF)

1983 13.0

1985 46.0 39.0

1994 253.0 226.0

2007 552.0 525.0

m (APERS)

1983 3.0 1985 10.0 9.0 1994 36.0 15.0

2007

mnmmmm.

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926.6

2369.8

4530.0

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70.0

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METHODOLORY

36

WI.>..|,...,.. mm

IV. Methodology

A. Average Unit Cost for Gun Manufacture

1. Cost estimating relationship.

a. The data base utilized for this estimate is included in reference 3. Tn reference 3, estimating relationships correlating applied momentum to cost and cannon weight to cost are used independently. Neither of these relationships give satisfactory results for this estimate because the IIK and GE cannons exchange rankings of momentum and weight. The reference 3 data base was subjected to multilinear regression with both weight and momentun as independent variables to solve this problem. The results are:

W = A + BX + CY Where:

W ■ Ifnit cost in FY 72 $ (excluding Product Assurance and Engineering Support)

X = Weight in pounds of the cannon breech assembly (less muzzle brake and bore evacuation)

Y ■ Momentum in lb/sees for highest momentum generated A = 4113.83 B ' 1.2067 C = 0.4134

Statistics:

Coefficients of Oetermination

Multiple = .976

Partial WX-Y = .2911 WY-X ■ .1048 XY = .976

Standard error of the estimate 1675

b. Independent Variables: The weights of the cannon and breech assemblies for the UK and CE options are taken fron reference 8 as 3912 and 4282 pounds respectively. The momentums in lbs/sees are calculated at 3821.12 for UK and 3326.51 for GE on the basis of the round variables provided in Section III, paragraph B of this report.

37 O

°~' ■p

I

2. Inflation.

Historical inflation for general items of ordnance has not moved as fast as that for cannon manufacture. Therefore, it is necessary to construct a special inflation rate to escalate fron FY 72 to FY 76. The most reasonable proxy for actual price movement is the change in Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Code 1015-1053, Closed Die urging Alloy Steel. The amount of change through the period FY 72 to FY 76 has been 75 percent comparing reference 10 and reference 11. An additional 10.07 percent is forecast between FY 76 and FY 77 (reference 5). The total multiplier then becomes 1.9262 (1.75 X 1.1007) to be applied on the output of the gun cost estimating relationships described above.

3. Adjustment for Smoothbore dun.

The 120mm UK gun is a rifled gun similar to the items in the data base. The 120mm GE gun is of a smoothbore configuration, and its costs require adjustment. Reference 7 places the cost of rifling at 4.3 percent of the 120mm tube manufacturing cost and the cost of other processes contributing to the smoothbore configuration (including chrome plate, grinding and honing) at 11.6 percent of tube cost. Since the tube is ]/3 the cost of the total cannon breech assembly cost, the cost of rifling can be extracted from the CFR by multiplying by .9857 -

1 X .043 = .0143, 1 - .0143 .9857.

The smooth bore cost can be added to the cost of cannon, less rifling through the multiplier 1.0402 -

3 X .116 - .0387, 1 ,0387 ,9613, .9613 1.0402.

Thus, the one step multiplier to convert output of the CER to the smo:rh- bore configuration is the product of .9857 and 1.0402, or 1.0253.

4. Adjustment for Bore Evacuation System.

Reference 7 provides that the UK bore evacuator, and the HE evacuator are 2.5 percent and 0.7 percent of the total costs respectively

(1-.025) = 1-0256' (1~.007) 1.007.

5. Costs for Product Assurance and Fngineering Support.

These costs were extracted and used as is from the Watervliet Arsenal engineering cost estmate. The RE cost is Si,228 and the IIK cost is $1,020.

38

um MI. ■■ i "i mmtm "■-" mm ~—P" •'-'»•'—— ..,....•••»...1.111. _

I

B. AiWIJNITION MANUFACTURING COSTS

1. General Approach

a. The basic methodology for developinp the ammunition portion of the estimate was derived from reference 1. The ammunition was broken out into the individual components that would be procured. These elements were then costed by applying Cost Estimating Relationships (CER's) developed in reference 1. Section TV, paragraph B2, gives a complete list of the CER's that were taken from the study. It also indicates the pages upon which the detailed description of the CER's and their associated statistics can be found.

b. Since the ammunition study (reference 1) did not develop LAP and projectile costs for APERS, TPDS, and WP rounds, complexity factors were developed for this study based upon the relationships between weighted average costs of HEAT LAP's and projectiles compared to buys of APERS and WP rounds. These complexity factors are also listed in Section TV, paragraph B2. A detailed description of their development is given in Section IV, paragraph B3. It should be noted that it was decided that the costs of LAP for TPDS and APDS rounds would be essentially identical.

c. A final requirement for developing complete round costs involved the necessity of estimating costs for certain explosive elements for which CER's are not contained within reference 1. Failure to include these costs would have resulted in a significant underpricing of the ammunition. For this reason, the current ammunition component price list (reference 9) was utilized to extract current costs for explosive elements from US lOSmm rounds in production. The M456A1 (HEAT), the M392A2 (APDS), the M416 (WP), the M494 (APERS), the M742 (TPDS), and M490 (TP) were the sources for this data. It was assumed that these costs would remain relatively constant for the new family of HS tank rounds. In order to project costs for the 120mm, the HE Fill CER (LnZ:r14.3343 + 3.1763 Ln bore size) was used to calculate the percentage difference between 105mm and 120mm rounds. A factor of 1.51 (rounded) was applied to the HS rounds to estimate the corresponding German and English rounds. In addition, it should be noted that the HS HEAT round Other Explosive Elements category contains a Full Frontal Area Impact Switch with a current cost of ,U8.834. It was assumed that the US would want this technology to be incorporated in the corresponding 120iTin rounds, so this cost was also applied.

d. After all of the equations in Section IV, paragraph B2, had been calculated, utilizing the variables and production schedules provided in Section III (A and B), the results were converted to FY 77 dollars by application of inflation factors in references 4 and 5. All results were then placed in the matrix provided on the following page (Figure 1). This matrix became the basis for the cost tables in Section III-C of the study. It includes the identification number of the appropriate equation for each component, and it also identifies the requirement for throughput data provided in Section IV, paragraph B4.

39

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2. COST ESTIMATING RELATIONSHIPS

a. LAP Costs

(1) Equation Mo. 1 - HP (HEAT)

LnZ = -6.8639 + 2.1143 LnX Where: Z = Estimated unit cost in FY 74 dollars

X ■ Bore size in millimeters

Ref. II, pp 112-11.3.

(2) Equation No. 2 - WP/SW)KE

MP LAP unit cost [FY 74 $) from Equation No. 1 times 1.1388 complexity factor. See Section IV, Paragraph B!'3) of this study.

(3) Equation No. 3 - APERS

MP LAP unit cost (FY 74 $) from Equation No. 1 times 1.4334 complexity factor. See Section IV, Paragraph B(3) of this study.

(4) Equation No. 4 - APFSDS/TPFSDS (AP)

LnZ = 2.9272 - 0.000002941 X + 0.9583 LnY Where: Z = Estimated unit cost in FY 74 dollars

X = Average annual production rate in thousands Y = Projectile mass

Ref. #1, pp 113-114.

(5) Equation No. 5 - W-TP (TP)

LnZ - 4.1000 - 0.3247 LnX + 0.6453 LnY Where: Z * Estimated unit cost in FY 74 dollars

X ■ Average annual production rate in thousands Y = Projectile mass

Ref. #1, pp 114-115,

b. Projectile Costs

(1) Equation No. 6 - »ff5 (HEAT)

Theoretical first unit cost (FY 74 $) of $90.61 for 105mm;

Theoretical first unit cost (FY 74 |) of $138.65 for 120mm;

92.6% composite learning rate applies,

Ref. 11, p 117.

41

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^ mrnmmimrmimpmmimmmmimmmi ^^^mmmmmmmmm.

f

(2) Equation No. 7 - WP/SMOKB

HEAT theoretical first unit cost (FY 74 S) frcm Equation No. 6 times .6007 complexity factor.

92.61 composite learning rate applies.

See Section IV, Paragraph B(^) of this study.

(3) Equation No. 8 - APERS

HEAT theoretical first unit cost (FY 74 $) from Equation No. 6 times 3.8289 complexity factor.

92.6% composite learning rate applies.

See Section IV, Paragraph B(3) of this study.

(4) Equation No. 9 - APFSÜS (APDS)

Z - Antiln (3.1417 + 0.009529X) + (116.91 + 52.80T^0 ^V 16.73 L ^J

Where: Z ■ Estimated unit cost in FY 76 dollars X = Full bore size in millimeters Y = In-flight projectile mass T ■ Material type conditional code

= 0 if depleted uranium core = 1 if tungsten alloy core

Ref. #1, pp 123-123.

(5) Equation No. 10 - APFSDS

APFSDS estimated unit cost (FY 76 $) from Equation No. 9 with depleted uranium core times .5303 complexity factor.

See Section IV, Paragraph B(3) of this study.

(6) Equation No. 11 - MP-TP (TP)

LnZ = -5.5868 + 2.1305 LnX Where: Z = Estimated theoretical first unit cost in FY 74 dollars

X = Bore size in millimeters

0.6667

Ref. #1, p 124.

42

l^IW^W^—W^i^ mwnaiiiii

1 .

c. Explosive Fill

Equation No. 12 - MP (FEAT)

LnZ = -12.3829 + 2.6706 LnX Where: Z ■ Estimated unit cost in FY 74 dollars


Ref. #1, p 126.

d. Cases

(1) Equation No. 13 - Steel

LnZ = 1.0625 + 0.02063 X + 0.2022 Y Where: Z ■ Estimated theoretical first unit cost in FY 74 dollars

X = Bore size in millimeters Y ■ Projectile mass


(2) Equation No. 14 - Combustible

LnZ = 1.2865 + 0.01015 X Where: Z ■ Estimated unit cost in FY 74 dollars


Ref. n, p 134.

e. Propellants

Equation No. 15 - Propellants

LnZ ' -10.5840 + 0.01571 X + 0.7416 LnY Where: Z ■ Estimated unit cost in FY 74 dollars

X ■ Bore size in millimeters y ■ Kinetic energy

Ref. #1, pp 135-137.

f. Primers

Equation No. 16 - Electric

LnZ = -14.1220 + 4.0538 LnX - 0.9031 LnY Where: Z = Estimated theoretical first unit cost in FY 74 dollars

X ■ Round application bore size in millimeters Y ■ Round application projectile mass


Ref #1, p 139.

43

r wmmmmmmmmmmm

g. Fuzes

(1) Rquation No. 17 - MP (PIRT))

LnZ = -52.3486 + 11.5814 LnX - 4.0705 LnY Where: Z ■ Estimated theoretical first unit cost in FY 74 dollars

X ■ Round application bore size in millimeters Y = Round application projectile mass


Ref. #1, pp 143-144.

(2) Equation No. 18 - WP/SMOKF (PD)

LnZ - 14.0768 - 2.2258 LnX + 1.0590 LnY Where: Z ■ Estimated theoretical first unit cost in FY 74 dollars

X ■ Round application bore size in millimeters Y ■ Round application projectile mass


Ref. #1, pp 141-142.

(3) Equation No. 10 - APERS (MT)

Theoretical first unit cost CFY 74 $1 of .^fi. 35

91.U composite learning rate applies.

Ref. #1, p 144.

h. Transportation

Equation No. 20 - Transportation

LnZ ■ 1.5214 + 1.0029 LnX Where: Z = Estimated unit cost in FY 75 dollars

X = Projectile mass

Ref. #1, pp 149-150.

44

—ÜT- pilliimniPlHBwunj iiigi. immmmmm " ■i-'—•■ •""""' , ■ ■ '—^■wim^m

I 3. COMPLEXITY FACfORS

a. This study draws heavily upon references 1 and 2. It should be noted that both references 1 and 2 refer to generic titles for the various round families. Hence, the MP and MP-TP categories, as referred to in this report, are denoted in references 1 and 2 as HEAT and TP. Correspondingly, WP/SMOKE rounds are referred to as WP, The APFSDS and TPFSDS rounds are respectively called APDS and TPDS in references 1 and 2. In order to facilitate tracking with the basic references, this methodology section utilizes the generic descriptions found in references 1 and 2. Reference 2 contains unit cost-quantity data for LAP costs and projectile metal parts production for selected anmunition items between FY 57 and FY 75. All costs pertaining to HEAT, APERS, WP, TPDS, and APDS rounds were extracted. In addition, a file search was conducted in DRSAR-PDC records pertaining to LAP and projectile metal parts costs. Additional information for FY 76 and FY 77, and for several earlier buys not listed in the annex, was compiled. All of this data was then converted into unit costs in FY 76 dollars. In order to facilitate comparison of the rounds under study, the data were then purified by the deletion of obviously inconsistent cost-quantity information U-e., an FY 72 buy of M456A1 projectiles was deleted because it had an average unit cost of $436.72 in FY 76 dollars, while the average unit cost of all other orders was $44.34). A weighted average unit cost for each round in the data base was then developed so that individual rounds could be compared readily (see Charts 1 and 2).

b. These weighted averages were used as the basis for the developing of complexity/conversion factors. Reference 2 contains a CER for estimating the LAP and actual costs for the 105mm and 120mm HEAT projectile parts. It was decided to use an analogy process, comparing the HEAT with the WP and APERS rounds, to develop factors which could be used to convert the projected costs for a HEAT round to projected APERS and WP costs. Similarly, a conversion factor was developed for the CER for APDS rounds projectile metal parts by comparing the APDS metal parts cost to the TPDS metal parts cost.

Complexity Factor 1 - A complexity factor of 1.1338 was developed to convert output from the HEAT LAP cost CER to that of a WP round. This was done by comparing the average cost of the only WP tank round on which data was available, the 105mm M416, to the normalized weighted average cost of HEAT rounds in the data base. Two of the rounds on which data was available, the 76mm M496 and the 90mm M431A2, are obsolete rounds that were produced in only limited quantities. They were removed from the data base in order not to skew the results. This left the following rounds in the data base (see Table 27}.

45

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T.4BLE 27

Bore Size Nomenclature Wtd Avg Price

90mm M371R1 $16.415 105mm M456 16.826 lOöiiBn M344M w/o Fuze 15.157 106mm M344A1 w Fuze 18.197 152mm M409 65.525

In order to normalize this data in terms of 105mm costs, it was necessary to utilize the HFJVT LAP CER - Ln Est. U„C. in FY 74 I1: = -6.8639 + (2.1143 X Ln Bore Size). Since the independent variable in this equation is bore size, it was felt that the data could be normalized by finding the CER projected differences for the bore sizes involved. These results were obtained:

Normalized Wtd Quantity Avg Price

619,432 1:22.735 975,095 16.826 61,515 14.860

801,366 17.840 303,893 29.975

TABLE 28

Est U.C. Conversion pactor Based on 105mm

$14.155 1.385 19.609 1.000 20.006 .980 42.866 .457

Bore Size

90mm 105nim 106mm 152mm

By applying the conversion factors developed in this manner, normalized weighted average prices were obtained (see Table 27). The weighted average of these normalized prices is $19.849. This compares to the average cost of $22.504 for the M416 WP round (Chart 1). The latter figure is 1,1338 tines the normalized average HEAT round LAP cost.

Complexity Factor 2 - A complexity factor of 1.4334 was developed to convert output from the HEAT LAP cost CER to that of an APERS round. The same methodology was followed as for complexity factor 1. The normalized average cost of $19.849 for the HEAT round was compared to the normalized weighted average cost of $28.451 for the APERS round. Table 29 summarizes the coversion process.

TABLE 29

Bore Size Nomenclature Wtd Avg Price Quantity Normalized Wtd

Avg Price

90mm 105mm 106mm

M580 M494 M581

$22.549 33.626 23.550

96,976 19,223 68,828

$31.231 33.626 23.088

In order to normalize this data in terms of 105iran costs, tho conversion factors developed in Table 28 were used. The average weighted unit APERS LAP cost of $28.451 is 1.4334 times the standardized LAP cost of HEAT rounds.

mmmm^mmm^mmmm. imiuiii .iinumnBiiiwiiw^fimiwjDnimi.iniui JH mnmm - -'"■ msWBPIIPPWP!

Complexity Factor 3 - In order to convert projected costs of APDS to TPDS projectiles, an analogy was made between the M724A1 lOSmm TPDS projectile and the M392A1 APDS projectile. The average cost of the M724A1 is $76,713. Since the M392A1 projectile has an average cost of $144,652, the M724A1 projectile is .5303 times as expensive as the .APDS round. This complexity factor is utilized for converting an estimated APDS DU projectile to a TPDS projectile.

Complexity Factor 4 - A complexity factor of .6007 was developed to convert HFAT projectile theoretical first unit costs to WP projectile theoretical first unit costs. This was accomplished by comparing the average cost of the only WP tank round projectile on which data was available, the 105mm M416, to the normalized weighted average cost of HEAT projectiles in the data base. As was the case in the development of complexity factor 1, the obsolete M431 and M436 projectile costs were deleted. A normalized weighted average unit cost of $40.723 was developed using the same procedures described for complexity factor 1. The HE projectile CER: Ln Theoretical First Unit Cost FY 74 $ = -1.6983 + (1.3739 X Ln Bore Size) was used as the basis for the conversion, since no HEAT CER is available.

Complexity Factor 5 - A complexity factor of 3.8289 was derived to convert HEAT projectile' theoretical first unit costs to APERS projectile theoretical first unit costs. The same methodology was utilized as for complexity factor 2. The normalized average cost of HEAT projectiles of $40,723 was compared to the normalized weighted average cost of APERS projectiles in the data base. This weighted cost of $155.926 is 3.8289 times the HEAT projectile cost.

49

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W" """ lll," jjiiiii!ijiii.iiw.ii,wiiiuiiii.iijiwijniiimw.ii.

4. THROUGHPUT

HEAT-TP

Nftroquanldine

Liner

Benite

Ml 3 Tracer

TOTAL

Other Explosive Elements

HEAT 105MM FY 77$ 120MM FY 77 t

Nitroguanldine $ 7.101

Liner 2.141

Benite 1.542

Ml3 Tracer .593

Full Frontal Area Impact Switch

$11.377

18.834

117.185

18.834

$36.019 TOTÄt

^30.211

$17.185

APDS

Nitroguanidine

Benite

Black Powder

Ml 3 Tracer

Liner

TOTAL

50

$19.120

■ ■■■■

————————— ^^^^^PIIPIHIIIIII.

TPDS

NUronuanidine

Benite

Black Powder

M13 Tracer

Liner

TOTAL

HP

XM175 Burster

^8 Burster

TNT

Conp. B.

Black Powder

M12 Tracer

TOTAL

APERS

XM86 Detonators

'V Pel ay

^87 Detonators

M0 Prooellant

M13 Tracer

TOTAL

"ther Fxnlosive Flements

mUUU 120MM FY 77 $

$ 5.471

3.034

.214

.593

2.084

SI 1.396

SI 2.903

1.367

.053

.126

.099

2.270

$16.818

$ 3.805

135

$17.213

$25.404

S 7.702

51

J

r

V. REFERtNCfcS

1. Ammunition Cost Research Study, Gerald W. Kalal and Patrick Gannon, Jun 76, AD-A-029330.

2. Ammunition Cost Research: Medium-Bore Cannon Ammunition, Annexes A-E, Patrick Gannon, Celestino George, Gerald Kalal, Kathleen Keleher, Paul Riedesel, Joseph Robinson, Sep 75, AD-A-016104.

3. Cost Estimating Relationships for Manufacturing Hardware Cost of Gun/Howitzer Cannons, Gerald W. Kalal, Aug 72, AD-75-7163.

4. ARRCOM Regulation 37-24, Financial Administration: Inflation and Price Escalation Instructions, 16 Mar 77.

5. DF, DRSAR-CPE, 14 Oct 77, subject: Inflation Guidance.

6. DF, DRSAR-CPE, 20 Oct 77, subject: Inflation Guidance.

7. Letter, SARWV-PPN, 2 Nov 77, subject: XM1 Tank Main Armament Evaluation.

8. FONECON between Frederick J. Northey, DRSAR-SAA, and Joseph Robinson, DRSAR-CPE, 8 Nov 77, subject: Input Data for Independent Unit Cost Assessment; RE: XM1 TMAE CSLS Impact Evaluation.

9. Class V Report: Estimated Replacement Prices (Ammunition) Rased on Current Average Costs Plus Adjustments, 31 Aug 77, RIN P02CJÜ0234M.

10. Wholesale Prices and Price Index Supplement 1972, US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Feb 73.

11. Wholesale Prices and Price Index Supplement 1977, US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oct 77.

12. DF, DRSAR-SAL, 11 Oct 77, subject: XM1 Tank Main Armament Evaluation.

52

LilPWil jiMiaillUl T^— mmm^m^mmmni

1 DISTRIBUTION

Copies

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Commander US Army Armament Research and Development Command ATTN: DRDAR-SEC Dover, NJ 07801

Comptroller of the Army The Pentagon ATTN: DACA-CA Washington, DC 20310

Commander US Army Materiel Development and Readiness Command ATTN: DRCCP-ES Alexandria, VA 22333

Defense Documentation Center Cameron Station Alexandria, VA 22314

Commander Defense Logistics Studies Information Exchange US Army Logistics Management Center FT Lee, VA 23801

Commander US Army Training and Doctrine Command ATTN: ATCD-A0-R FT Monroe, VA 23351

Commander US Army Armament Materiel Readiness Command ATTN: DRSAR-SA, Mr. Northey Rock Island, IL 61299

Commander US Army Armament Materiel Readiness Command AHN: DRSAR-LEA Rock Island, IL 61299

Commander Watervliet Arsenal ATTN: SARWV-PPN Watervliet, NY 12189

mm w~*mm.

UNCLASSIFIED Secmity Clagsification

DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA -R&D (Stcurity ctmMsillcmtion ol title, body ot mbatrmct mnd indmxing mnnotation mutf fr» «nf f d wh^n th» ovmratl rmport IM clmaMltimdj

I ORIGINATING *C T iv \ J v (Corpormf author)

HQ, US Army Annament Materiel Readiness Conmand Cost Analysis Division (DRSAR-CPE) Rock Island, IL 61299

2a. REPORT ICCURITV CLASSIFICATION

UNCLASSIFIED ab. CROUP

3 REPORT TITLE

Independent Production Cost Estimate: XM1 Tank Main Armament Evaluation

4. DESCRIPTIVE NOTES (Type ol report mnd Incluaivr dmtmm)

Technical Report s. AU THORISI ffirx n«m«, mlddlm Inlllml, Immt nmmo)

Gene Johnston, Gerald Kalal, Joseph Robinson, and Laurence Stoll

S REPORT DATE

November 1977 7«. TOTAL NO. OP PASES

60 76. NO. OF RIPS

12 Sa. CONTRACT OR GRANT NO.

b. PROJECT NO.

M. ORIGINATOR'S REPORT NUkCBERI»

DRSAR-CPE 77-9

fclstrttntloa lloSted to u.E, fb. OTHER REPORT NO(SI fÄny other number« tfiat mar ba aaatanad ^ •Aft/.po^ ; only;

ßjtr Itoio da.jiaiicuiü mu.^ ho rof o ;' > j 11 i. ■) 10. DISTRIBUTION STYTEM

^aci^AMflSialtJEal of this document outgj^jj nf f^T "irnrt -TTI f't"n— muät UT-- **

prior npptuval of: Headqvinrtors, US Ar^y ArnrnmBr*- MatiHrl niinltili'" Sormmii _ RWoritermlnates 1 Januar

nyi "■ 12 SPONSORING MILITARY ACTIVITY

HQ, US Army Armament Materiel Readiness Cmd Cost Analysis Division (DRSAR-CPE) Rock Island, IL 61299

13 ABSTRACT

Parametric estimating of the recurring investment costs for tank main armament systems has recently been improved with new modeling techniques, as well as with an improved data base. This report illustrates the use of such estimating techniques as prepared for the XMl Tank Main Armament Evaluation (TMAE). It also expands parametric estimating techniques to white phosphorous (WP), antipersonnel (APERS), and target practice discarding sabot (TPDS) rounds.

I^f% PMM 4Am1f% REPLACES DO FORM lATS. LIU 1 MOV «si 4 /«!> OBSOLETE POP ARMY USB

REPLACE« DO FORM I4TS. I JAN «4, WHICH IS

UNCLASSIFIED naSmy BMSRMBM

—■ - •*-■ ■-■■ ..-..••

r" ■a —p „, ,_„,.,,,

r UNCLASSIFIED

S«curitr Clattirication

KEY WOROt

Army Cost Analysis Report Ammunition Cost Research Recurring Investment Armiunition Procurement Learning Curve Analysis Cost Estimating Relationships Ammunition Cost Estimating Transportation of Ammunition Tank Main-Armament Ammunition Cost Model Ammunition Components Tank Cannon Estimates Cannon Manufacturing Cost Parametric Ammunition Estimates Parametric Cannon Estimates Parametric Cost Model

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