UNCLASSIFIED 1 Joint Operating Environment Towards 2035 Joint Operating Environment Towards 2035 Mr....
-
Upload
raymond-blair -
Category
Documents
-
view
240 -
download
2
Transcript of UNCLASSIFIED 1 Joint Operating Environment Towards 2035 Joint Operating Environment Towards 2035 Mr....
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
1
Joint Operating EnvironmentJoint Operating EnvironmentTowards 2035Towards 2035
Joint Operating EnvironmentJoint Operating EnvironmentTowards 2035Towards 2035
Mr. Joe Purser
Director, JFCOM Futures Group
Distribution “A”Requests for this document shall be referred to:
Center for Joint FuturesHQ; U.S. Joint Forces Command
112 Lakeview Parkway, Suffolk, VA 23435-2697Attn: Mr. Paul Martin, Phone: 757-203-3129
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
• Provides context for the future joint force – the “demand signals” for JCDE
• Reviews the trends and disruptions that will create change
• Trends combine in different ways to form operational contexts that will frame future challenges
• Contexts lead to implications, or challenges for the joint force
We won’t get it all right – but we can’t afford to get it all wrong
The Joint Operating Environment (JOE)
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
• Demographics – migration, growth, urbanization, aging, youth bulges.
• Globalization – transparency, fast-moving information and money, with global audience.
• Technology – rapid rate of change, proliferation, asymmetric developments.
• Scarcity of Natural Resources – food, water, energy
• Rising state powers – economies, militaries, influence.
• Rising power of non-state actors – growth of ideological, religious, and identity-based groups, less bound by conventions.
• Weapons of Mass Destruction – Cheaper and more effective ways to kill, injure, disrupt and terrorize available to a wider array of international actors.
The international environment will change – sometimes dramatically…
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Trends – U.S. Demographics
United States 2007United States 2007
Retired Cohort
Wage EarningCohort
SchoolingCohort
The Past
The Present
The Future
United States 2030United States 2030
Male Female
12 1266 00
AGE0-4
AGE85+
Millions
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
United StatesUnited StatesRussiaRussia
GermanyGermanyJapanJapan
ChinaChina
NigeriaNigeria YemenYemen
IndiaIndia
MexicoMexico
BrazilBrazilWorld Population 2008: 6.7 Billion
2
4
6
8
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Population Reference Bureau
Demographics: Population by Age Eight billion people in the world by 2025 (2 billion more than today). Nearly all growth in the developing world. Absolute decline in Europe, Japan, Russia, and Korea. The U.S. will add 50 million people by 2025 (unique among the developed countries of the world).
Trends – World Demographics
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Trends - Migration & Population Change
The Global Movement of Peoples Unprecedented migrant flows around the world.
Muslims/Africans to Europe. Chinese to Siberia, Central Asians to Russia Indigenous Europeans to U.S./Australia/Canada Latin Americans to the United States
Movement toward areas of effective governance and to cities (whether well governed or not). Away from areas of famine, drought, floods, or other climatic disasters. Brain drain of skilled classes from the undeveloped world.
Some of the world’s most important current migration routes
SOURCES:SOURCES: National Public Radio The Economist
Distance no object
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
As of last year >50% of the world’s population lived in cities. Rural growth is flat. By 2030, 65 % of humanity will live in cities – 5½ billion human beings. Large urban areas are usually near the oceans and subject to severe environmental,
social, and political pressures.
World’sLargestCities
2005 20201. Tokyo2. Mexico City3. Mumbai4. New York5. Sao Paulo6. Delhi7. Calcutta
1. Tokyo2. Mumbai3. Delhi4. Dacca5. Mexico City6. Calcutta7. Lagos
Major Urban Environments
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
The Rise of new Asian Economic Powers will re-define the Global Economy
11 countries in the developing world with populations over 100 million and GDP over $100 billion.
China, Russia, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Vietnam
Changing Balance of Creditor and Debtor Nations US $ under assault as World Reserve Currency
Trends - Economics and Globalization
Regional Share ofthe Global Economy (%)
NorthAmerica
EastAsia
EU
Other
SouthAsia
2008
33
19
31
17
- -
2025
30
30
16
11
13
Reversal of globalization would constitute a major shock with dramatic consequences
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Trends - Remittances
Source: Migration and Remittances Handbook, Development Prospects Group, World Bank (2006)
Remittance InflowsRemittance Inflows
Pakistan – $6.1 billion
Indonesia – $6.0 billion
Egypt – $5.9 billion
Morocco – $5.7 billion
Lebanon – $5.5 billion
India – $27 billion
China – $25.7 billion
Mexico – $25 billion
Philippines – $17 billion
Bangladesh – $6.4 billion
• Total remittances sent home by foreign workers exceeds the value of all foreign aid and foreign capital investments combined
• The single greatest income source for many developing countries
Remittance Outflows
U.S. – $42.2 billionJapan – $3.4 billionEurope – 25.4 billionGulf – $20.1 billion
Remittance Outflows
U.S. – $42.2 billionJapan – $3.4 billionEurope – 25.4 billionGulf – $20.1 billion
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Trends - Resource Scarcity: Water & Food
The Meaning of Food and Water Scarcity• Increasing stress on water supplies, desertification and shifting growth bands impact water and food production and affect regional politics.• Potential for Agflation as water, oil for fertilizer, increasingly scarce land, and overall demand drive up the cost of food.• Prices increasing as China, India, and others industrialize, leading to greater competition over natural resources
Percent of humanity subject to water scarcity:• 2025: 10%
• 2050: up to 33%
Growing concerns over food scarcity. In 2008:• 19 Grain Export Embargos
• 10 riots due to food distribution anomalies
Food Disruptions and Embargos
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Trends - Resource Scarcity: Energy
The Meaning of Energy Competition• Energy demand follows population and economic growth.• Developing countries with increasing demand seek to transition to developed status. • Liquid fossil fuels may peak before alternatives arrive. • For China alone to develop a Western middle-class would require all the world’s current energy resources. • Should encourage innovation and energy diversity
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Trends - Resource Scarcity: Energy
The Meaning of Energy Competition• Energy demand follows population and economic growth.• Developing countries with increasing demand seek to transition to developed status.• Liquid fossil fuels may peak before alternatives arrive. • For China alone to develop a Western middle-class would require all the world’s current energy resources. • Should encourage innovation and energy diversity
Future World Oil Production
Existing Capacity
Development of known reserves
Enhanced recoveries
Non-conventionalProducts and techniques ?
Era of Peak Oil
118 mb/d
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Atmospheric Concentration of CO2
Sea levels rise as global temperature increases.
CO2 levels in the atmosphere 100% greater today than 100 years ago.
Global avg. temperature has increased ~1.5 degrees.
For every 1 cm of vertical sea rise, 1-10 m of coastline is inundated.
Trends – CO2, Temperatures, Sea Level Rise
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
• Two-thirds of major urban areas are partially in the 0-10meter zone. • 21 % of the urban populations of the least developed nations are in the zone.• About 75% of people in the zone are in Asia. • Poor countries — and poor communities within them — are most at risk.
Key
= Big Risk
= Moderate Risk
Los AngelesNew York
Mexico City
Sao Paulo
Lagos
Buenos Aires
Rio de Janeiro
Cairo
Mumbai Calcutta
Jakarta
Beijing
Karachi
ShanghaiTokyo
Delhi
Dacca
Data from the UN Habitat State of the World’s Cities 2008/9
Trends – Risks from Sea Level Rise and Storms
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Major Space Launch SitesMapped to Antipodes
The Future of “Key Terrain”Geographic Features, trade routes, ports and airfields will remain important terrain features for the joint force commander to consider; while orbital slots, launch site antipodes, …
Trends – Access to New “Key Terrain”
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
… littoral undersea environments, fiber-optic and server hubs may be equally important in the future. DNS Root Server Locations
Links – The Cyber CommonsUndersea cable
Internet capacity
Internet users affected by outage
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Snapshot:
Global Network 2030• Real world simulated in
virtual environments
– Real-time “Google Earth?”
– Immersive environments
• Real word infused with embedded computation
– Meta-tagged world
– Augmented reality
• Real and Virtual Worlds merge.
• Infosphere with 6 billion “human brain” equivalent – nearing the total processing power of humanity itself.
Trends - Cyber & Information Technologies
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Trends - Cyber & Information Technologies
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Waves of IT Industry Growth in the Information Age
SOURCE: David Moschella, “Waves of Power”
Milli
ons of U
sers
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
10,000
1,000
100
10
1
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
• Mass being offset by increased precision at greater ranges at decreasing cost. All adversaries will have access to precision anti-access weaponry.
• Accelerated information technologies and massive latent computing capacity creates massive parallel network computing.
• ISR will get even more intrusive and ubiquitous, requiring tremendous new information storage, processing dissemination, and security capabilities.
• Advanced space navigation and remote sensing more widely available.
Trends - Emerging Technological Challenges
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
…leading to Contexts of Conflict and War
• Cooperation and Competition among conventional (state) powers will provide a number of challenges and threats to the joint force
• Weak and failing states will require engagement and cooperation
• Large, sprawling urban areas with dynamic pressures in which the joint force must operate
• Threats from Unconventional states and non-state powers that will confront us with new and innovative ways to wage war
• Battle of the Narrative will bring populations directly in touch with joint force operations and shape perceptions
• Defense of the US Homeland will require operations abroad and at home
Contexts are the confluence of two or more trends and illuminate why wars occur and how they might be waged.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Context: Cooperation and Competition Among Conventional Powers
Historical Examples Congress of Vienna Monroe Doctrine World War II Cold War 1990-2005 China
Potential Future Examples Rise of China and India Shanghai Cooperation
Organization. Relations with Europe,
Japan, Korea Russia’s “Frontier of
Instability”
Potential For Conflict
Relative balance of military and economic power shifts
New combinations of regional powers/alliances
Struggle for control of international organizations
Implications for the Joint Force
Longer-range, more-precise weapons are more widely available and cheaper
Ubiquitous Anti-Access Weapons U.S. and others may no longer be able
to operate freely in the global commons (air, sea, space).
Technology, WMD proliferation, and globalization will bring homeland into reach.
The joint force will have a role preventing conflicts between other great states.
Risks
Growing powers not accommodated or properly represented in international forums
Emergence of unfavorable balances of power
Breakup of traditional alliances
Loss of access to Global Commons
Forced U.S. isolation
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Context: Weak and Failing States
Historical Examples Ottoman Empire China 1850-1930 Soviet Union Yugoslavia Congo Somalia Haiti
Potential Future Examples North Korea Mexico Nigeria Pakistan Zimbabwe
Potential For Conflict
At-risk states are: Politically unstable Challenged by
rebels and terrorists
May resort to mass killings of civilians
Enmeshed in international crises
Implications for the Joint Force
Early identification and diagnosis Responding to early signs of trouble Capabilities to enhance or restore
stability Mitigate effects of state failure
Risks
77% of all conflicts involve an unstable or failing state
Failed/Failing State = threat to international peace
Havens for disruptive non-state actors
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Context: Security In Urban Environments
Historical Examples Hue Beirut Sarajevo Grozny Fallujah Baghdad
Potential Future ExamplesSao PauloKarachiDaccaCairoLagosJakarta
Potential For Conflict
Wars occur where humans live.
Most human wealth is located in cities
Cities provide places to hide
Connects to: Financial resources Travel systems Communication
networks
Implications for the Joint Force
Shelter from U.S. advantages in ISR and fires
U.S. must separate adversaries from noncombatant civilian populations
Governance & stability packages High casualty rates Context for Homeland Security as well
Risks
Humanitarian disaster
Haven for international terrorists
Fortress for conventional forces
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Contexts: Threats from Unconventional Powers
Historical Examples COMINTERN Viet Cong Hezbollah Tamil Tigers Al Qaida North Korea
Potential Future Examples North Korea Iran ‘Hybrid’ Militias and Proxies Regional/Global Criminal
Gangs Transnational corporations
Potential For Conflict
Groups and States not bound by conventions
Identity-based ideology Ideology-based identities Definitions of ‘Modernity’ Weakening of Western Ideas
and Ideals
Implications for the Joint Force
Battle of Narratives. Changing Means of Deterrence Able to take advantage of the forces
of globalization Will fight without adherence to formal
‘rules of war’ Requires source of Legitimacy and
Comprehensive Approach
Risks
Erosion of convention-based international system
Global Terrorism WMD Proliferation
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Contexts: Battle of Narratives over Global Networks
Historical Examples Vietnam War Hezbollah Al Qaida
Potential Future Examples Patriotic Hacktivists Sunni Extremists/ AQ 2.0 Iranian Proxies/Shia
Extremists Transnational corporations
Potential For Conflict
Identity rooted in social and cultural blood and soil connections.
States must increasingly compete for allegiance.
Human migration and ubiquitous communications complicate identities.
Changing politics in developed countries
Implications for the Joint Force
Battle of Narratives. Identities forged via the internet and
other communications technologies. Able to take advantage of the forces
of globalization Local conflicts have Global impact NGO’s can help with local cultural
awareness.
Risks
Erosion of state-based international system.
“Democratization of Violence.”
Global Terrorism
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Context: Protection of the Homeland
Historical Examples War of 1812 Villa Incursion Pearl Harbor Anthrax Attacks Hurricane Katrina Infiltration of Illegal
Immigrants
Potential Future Examples Pandemic/Natural Disaster Border Defense National Missile Defense Adversary use of Media Cybersecurity against
massive cyberattack Terrorism/SOF Infiltration Secession/Rebellion
Potential For Conflict
Homeland no longer “off limits” for adversaries
Greater technological reach by adversaries
More access to the U.S. through ports/airlines/computer networks/space/ISR
Federalization of natural disasters
Implications for the Joint Force
Increased role for the Joint Force in domestic disasters
Attacks against the Joint Force at home bases possible.
WMD attacks on key US nodes Protection of “homeland” will include
elements of cyberspace Direct “attacks” against U.S.
perceptions and National Will
Risks
Domestic security concerns overwhelm local/state authorities
Access to our population
US unable to secure its borders from multiple, overlapping challenges
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Implications - Adaptability of Future Adversaries
• Adversaries do not wage discrete land, sea, air, space or cyberspace wars - Instead, they use all elements of power to wage war
• Adversaries are examining the U.S. way of war, and developing different technical capabilities to negate U.S technological advantages or to exploit technologies as military capabilities
• Adversaries will adapt military practice to:– construct a mix of conventional, irregular warfare, and nuclear threats– blur the line between political conflict and open war – place U.S. forces in strategic dilemmas by developing strategies to
avoid our advantages and confront us with their own asymmetries.
• They will use:– Globally ranging networks and open-source capabilities (internet,
commercial navigation and imagery)– Increasing technical equality to make anti-access strategies challenging
in all domains.– Mobility, mass, information, and precision fires on U.S. forces while
denying our ability to respond
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Some Leading Questions
• Professional Military Education– PME must develop broad understanding of the
world– More detailed cultural training and awareness
• Personnel Systems– Transform mobilization-based development
paradigm– Incentivize adaptability and innovation
• Defense Economics and Acquisition– Adversaries outpacing our system– Tempo of acquisition is having strategic effects
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
2008 Stabilization Act+5% GDP
The current configuration of government entitlements, plus interest on the debt will pinch discretionary spending as government takes an increasing share of national revenue
US Spending vs. Tax Revenues as a Percentage of GDP
2009 Stimulus+5.7% GDP
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Much about conflict will remain the same…
• War is a human endeavor• War is an extension of policy
– Local political considerations will (continue) to dominate.– Democratization of politics, by extension, will be the
democratization of war.
• Our enemies will continue to target our vulnerabilities– Enemy is a willful, learning, and adaptive force– The enemy will likely be able to learn and adapt faster than we
can unless we change
• Friction is unavoidable – technology can not erase it• Surprise will continue to be a major factor – maybe
the dominant factor
Must build a force that is adaptable, agile, and resilient
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
34
Questions?Questions?
Questions?Questions?Center for Joint [email protected]//www.jfcom.mil/
The JOE 2008 is available for download at: http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2008/JOE2008.pdf
The JOE Overview Fact Sheet is available at: http://www.jfcom.mil/about/facts_prt/JOE2008.pdf
Distribution “A”Requests for this document shall be referred to:
Center for Joint FuturesHQ; U.S. Joint Forces Command
112 Lakeview Parkway, Suffolk, VA 23435-2697Attn: Mr. Paul Martin, Phone: 757-203-3129