UNC World View Symposium · UNC World View Symposium ... Director, UNC Center for Galapagos Studies...
Transcript of UNC World View Symposium · UNC World View Symposium ... Director, UNC Center for Galapagos Studies...
UNC World View Symposium
Coupling Social, Terrestrial & Marine Sub-Systems in the Galapagos Islands through Integrative
Science Perspectives
Stephen J. Walsh
Lyle V. Jones Distinguished Professor of Geography
Director, UNC Center for Galapagos Studies & Galapagos Science Center
Fellow, Carolina Population Center
Fellow, Curriculum in Ecology & Environment
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
http://www.swalsh.web.unc.edu; http://www.galapagos.unc.edu
Darwin’s Arrival in the Galapagos
A 26-year old Darwin first caught sight of theGalapagos Islands on September 15, 1835. The HMSBeagle, Capt. FitzRoy, dropped anchor just north ofthe present day town of Puerto Baquerizo Moreno onthe island of San Cristobal.
Seeing every height crowned with its crater, and theboundaries of most of the lava-streams still distinct,“ we are led to believe that within a periodgeologically recent the unbroken ocean was herespread out.”
The black lava rocks on the beach are frequented bylarge (2-3 feet) most disgusting, clumsy lizards. “Theyare as black as the porous rocks over which they crawland seek their prey from the sea – somebody callsthem “imps of darkness.”
On the Origin of Species (1859)…
In 1859, Darwin ’ s On the Origin of Species brought acompletely new view of life on Earth – one of continuouschange; what we see today is a snapshot of the species thathave struggled and survived, chosen by the blind forces ofnature.
In a world of stable populations where each individual muststruggle to survive, those with the "best" characteristics will bemore likely to survive, and those desirable traits will be passedto their offspring. These advantageous characteristics areinherited by following generations, becoming dominant amongthe population through time. This is natural selection. It maybe further inferred that natural selection, if carried far enough,makes changes in a population, eventually leading to newspecies.
Adaptive Radiation
Evolutionary change and “radiation” is what made theGalapagos animals unique. Adaptive Radiation – the waya species, finding itself in an under-populated land ofopportunity, can sometimes adapt into available, unfilledniches.
These vacancies allowed the original ancestral finch tosplit into different species that probed for insects inwood, ate leaves, and specialized in cactus flowers.
Niche Space
Galapagos Islands in Crisis
Development of the tourism industry and a boom in fishingmore than tripled the local population in the past 15-years.
The number of tourists visiting the Islands has quadrupledover the same period and is now approximately 225,000 peryear (2015).
Over 30,000 residents.
A World Heritage Site “At Risk” (2007-2010): UNESCO &the Ecuadorian Government.
Invasive Species
Population Migration & Tourism
Economic Development vs. Resource Conservation
Trends of Tourists to the Galapagos
121.328
63.700
185.028
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.0001
97
9
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
Foreing National TotalTotal Tourists; International Tourists; National Tourists
A joint initiative of
Universidad San Francisco de Quito & University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Carlos F. Mena & Stephen J. Walsh, Directors
Galapagos Science Center
Grand Challenges
Assess island ecosystems and resolve the social-ecologicalthreats to their sustainability.
Foster the health and well being of people, animals, andecosystems to better understand the complex interactionsbetween people and environment.
Promote stewardship and extend our knowledge of globalenvironmental change, social and evolutionary adaptation,and the dynamics of local places and global contexts tobenefit the Galapagos Islands, North Carolina, and theWorld.
Research Linked to the Grand Challenges
Human & Environmental Health: water & pathogens, nutrition & publichealth, ecosystem goods & services.
Conservation Biology & Evolutionary Biology: biodiversity & endemism,protected areas, evolutionary processes of adaptation & change.
Integrative Biology: animal behavior & physiology, movement ecology &connectivity, veterinary studies & wildlife health.
Marine Ecology & Oceanography: marine productivity, upwelling & islanddynamics, physical, chemical & biological oceanography.
Terrestrial Ecology: invasive species, eco-hydrology & water availability,food security & agricultural sustainability.
Global Environmental Change & Evolution: tourism & populationmigration, ENSO events & land use/land cover dynamics, speciesadaptation & change
Facility & Project Infrastructure
DNA Extraction & Sequencing: genomic sequencing process pipeline & HTSF
Galapagos Measurement Network: demographic surveillance system,acoustic tagging & habitat dynamics, meteorological stations & siteinstrumentation, marine base-line conditions & ENSO events.
Bio-specimen Banking & Custodial Services: Ministry of Environment &Galapagos National Park.
Citizen Scientist & Constructing Invaluable Data Sets: tourists, residents,guides, rangers, volunteer corps.
LTER & CZO Programs: Long-term data collection & analysis of change,trends & trajectories, e.g., econometric models, dynamic systems models,agent-based models.
Geospatial Data & Technologies: Remote sensing image processing,geographic information systems, fused ground to satellite systems.
Education & Outreach Activities
Summer & Semester Study Abroad
Professional Certificate (Global)
Graduate Certificate Program on Island Sustainability
Alumni Volunteer Corps
NC Public Schools & Museums
UNC Campus Courses, e.g., Geography 269
UNC Town Hall & Island Symposium Series
International Galapagos Science Consortium
Global Island Network
Campus Affinity Groups: RENCI, ODUM, IE, CPC, IMS
• Mangrove finches are now extinct on Fernandina Island, and on nearby Isabela Island, they are threatened by habitat destruction and invasive species, including:
• Cats
• Black rats
• Fire ants
• Fly larvae
• Only ~100 breeding pairs in the world
Human-Induced Threats: Finches
Productivity Sampling Strategy
CTD cast to 100m
Vertical phytoplankton net tow to base of euphotic zone
Niskin cast 1 (two deepest depths at 1% Ioand 10 % Io)
Niskin cast 2 (two shallow depths at 33% Io and 2m below surface)
Note: Io = Incident Irradiance or
the irradiance received at the
ocean surface.
Stock-Flow Diagram of the Number of Yearly Tourist Arrivals & Resident
Populations
2012 2020 2033
Yearly number of tourists visiting Galapagos (tourists)
Moderate Growth
180,831
237,359 329,217
High Growth 332,399 894,288
Zero Growth 180,831 180,831
Resident (people)
Moderate Growth
25,136
31,369 41,499
High Growth 41,850 103,813
Zero Growth 27,718 32,493
Number of boat-based tourists on an average
day (tourists)
Moderate Growth
1,228
1,174 1,221
High Growth 1,655 3,376
Zero Growth 893 668
Number of land-based tourists on an average day
(tourists)
Moderate Growth
1,491
2,437 3,875
High Growth 3,407 10,490
Zero Growth 1,857 2,129
.
Dynamic Systems Model
Tourists arriving in Galapagos: boat-based and land-based tourists.
Boat-based tourists typically buy an all-inclusive cruise packageand spends the main part of their experience on-board a ship,generally consuming few urban facilities and services.
Land-based tourists do not typically buy an all-inclusive package;they rely almost completely on local products, services, and labor.
The numbers of domestic and foreign tourists are projectedseparately and subsequently separated in domestic boat-basedand land-based as well as foreign boat-based and land-based,resulting in four main typologies of tourists.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Pa
rtic
ipa
nts
(#
)
Registered fishers
Active fishers
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Se
a c
uc
um
be
r c
atc
h
(millio
ns
of
ind
ivid
ua
ls)
Lob
ste
r c
atc
h (
mt)
Lobster
sea cucumber
Declining Fisheries Trends
Labor Mobility Methods
167 Fishers (49 full-time, 57 part-time,12 occasional, 46 inactive) (Engie 2015)
84 Questions
Categories:
Occupational Portfolio & Changes
Physical & Financial Capital
Economic Security & Relative Poverty
Job Satisfaction & Preferences
Demographics, Human & Social
Capital
Open-Ended Interviews
Labor Mobility Methods
Fishing Strategies (N=167)
DiminishmentIntensification
n=49 n=58 n=12 n=46
Full-time(>=90% income)
Part-time(30-90% income)
Occasional(<=30% income)
Inactive
Complexity & Indeterminate Pathways
“…were the tape of evolution to be replayed, all would come out very differently; the process is indeterminate.”
- Levin 2005: 1077
“the capacity to self-organize and adapt does not necessarilyresult in sustainable or fair resource use systems”, which “…willdepend on the balance of power among stakeholders and theirappreciation for these issues.”
- Mahon et al. (2008: 106)
Environmental Change
Institutional Response
Complexity & the Galapagos Fisheries