UNC Sustainability Symposium: Michael Mehling 2082013
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www.ecologic .eu Learning from Germany’s Renewable Energy Policy UNC-Chapel Hill Global Sustainability Symposium “Water and Energy in the Crosshairs” 8 February 2013 Michael Mehling Ecologic Institute
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Panel Discussion: Learning from Germany’s Renewable Energy Policy, with Michael Mehling, President, Ecologic Institute, Feb. 8, 2013, UNC-Chapel Hill.
Transcript of UNC Sustainability Symposium: Michael Mehling 2082013
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Learning from Germany’s Renewable Energy Policy
UNC-Chapel Hill Global Sustainability Symposium“Water and Energy in the Crosshairs”
8 February 2013
Michael MehlingEcologic Institute
www.ecologic.eu
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German Energy Concept of 2011: Targets and Timeline
Mehling - Germany’s Transition to a Sustainable Energy Economy
Climate Renewable
Energy
Efficiency
Greenhouse Gases
(vs. 1990)
Share
Electr.
Share
Total
PrimaryEnergy
Energy Pro-
uctivity
Building Renova-
tion
2020 - 40% 35% 18% - 20%
increase by
2.1%/year
doubling of rate
1% --> 2%
2030 - 55% 50% 30%
2040 - 70% 65% 45%
2050 - 80-95% 80% 60% - 50%
(Source: BMU)
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Electricity generation in % (2050)
Natural Gas3% Storage
14%
Renewables83%
Electricity Generation 2010 - 2050
(Source: Prognos & Ökoinstitut, 2010)
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Contribution of renewable energy sources to electricity supply in Germany
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
[GW
h]
Hydropower Wind energy
Biomass * Photovoltaics
* Solid and liquid biomass, biogas, sewage and landfill gas, biogenic share of waste; electricity from geothermal energy not presented due to negligible quantities produced; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kWh;StromEinspG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable Energy Sources Act;
Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; as at: December 2011; all figures provisional
StromEinspG:January 1991 - March 2000
Amendment to BauGB:November 1997
EEG:April 2000
EEG:January 2009
EEG:August 2004
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Merit Order Effect: Renewables Dampen Peak Electricity Prices
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BackSource: www.energytransition.de
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Growth in Photovoltaic 2000-2010
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Source: NREL
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Aggregate Power Potential of Global Natural Resources
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Source: Environmental Finance, 2010/2011
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Price Development for Photovoltaic Electricity
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Source: HTW Berlin
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Comparing Costs for Solar PV Installations
July 2012
Source: www.energytransition.de
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Employment Effects: Renewable Energy Sector vs. Lignite Coal Sector (2004-2010)
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Source: HBF
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Participatory Effect in Energy Generation: Energy Autonomous Communities
Energy Cooperatives (2006-2011)
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Source: DGRV
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Source: www.energytransition.de
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Cross-Border Physical Flows (9/2012)
Mehling - Germany’s Transition to a Sustainable Energy Economy
Source: BMUSource: ENTSOE-E, http://www.entsoe.net/data.aspx?IdMenu=1
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Net Electricity Generating Installations in EU 2011 (MW)
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Source: EWEA
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Net Electricity Generating Installations in EU 2000–2011 (GW)
Mehling - Germany’s Transition to a Sustainable Energy Economy
Source: EWEA
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A Spring Day in 2008: Baseload Power Needs
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Source: HTW Berlin
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A Spring Day in 2020: Baseload Power Needs
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Source: HTW Berlin
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A Vision for 2050: 100% Renewable Energy
Source: HTW Berlin
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German Energy Transition: Some Lessons
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The German experience with the Energiewende offers useful lessons:
A large-scale transition to renewable energy can work without harming the economy
Stable long-term incentives and guiding targets are vital to catalyze the transition
•As the share of renewable energy increases, new technical challenges emerge
But the largest challenges remain political:
The expansion of renewable energy can follow a continued paradigm of centralized, large-
scale generation or decentralized generation owned by individuals and communities – and
the latter has profound distributive effects, with winners (disaggregated, fledgling) and
losers (powerful, well organized incumbents)
Mehling - Germany’s Transition to a Sustainable Energy Economy
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Thank You!
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