Uma iniciativa Apoio Reference Scenario - Government Plan World – GDP growth 2013-2020: 3.8% per...

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Uma iniciativa

Apoio

Mitigation Scenarios for Brazil - 2030

William Wills, D.Sc.

Reference Scenario - Government Plan

•World – GDP growth• 2013-2020: 3.8% per year• 2021-2030: 3.2% per year• Average 2013-2030: 3.6% per year

•Brazil –GDP Growth• 2013-2020: 3.7% per year• 2021-2030: 4.1% per year• Average 2013-2030: 3.9% per year

•Oil Price• 85 US$/barril


•Exchange rate• 2.20 R$/US$

•Population• Total:223 Million • Active population

from 45.8% in 2005 to 49.7% in 2030

•GDP Composition:% VA 2010 2030

Agriculture 5.3% 5.6%

Industry 28.1% 26.4%

Services 66.6% 68.0%


BiomassCoal

Crude O

il

Natural Gas

Oil Deriv

atives

Electricit

y

Tansport

Agricultu

re

Pulp and paper

CementSteel

Non ferro

us

Chemical

Mining

Rest of In

dustry

Services

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2.4

1.7

3.3

5.0

2.1

2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9

1.9 1.5

2.3 1.9

2.6 2.7

Production by sector (2005 = 1)

Reference Scenario - Government Plan B

iom

ass (

Ktep

)

Oil (

Ktep

)

Natu

ral G

as (K

tep)

Oil D

eriv

ative

s (Kt

ep)

Pulp

&Pa

per.

(M t)

Cem

ent (

M t)

Stee

l (M

t)

Non

ferr

ous (

M t)

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

Net Exports

2005 CPG-2030

Scenarios Description

Scenario Description

CPG Reference Scenario – Follow trends from Copenhagen Pledges

MA1-T Mitigation Scenario 1 – (20 US$ carbon tax + mitigation measures)

MA2-T Mitigation Scenario 2 – (100 US$ carbon tax + mitigation measures)

Scenario Description (Still working on them)

MA1-N Mitigation Scenario 1 – (mitigation measures, no Carbon Tax)

MA2-N Mitigation Scenario 2 – (mitigation measures, no Carbon Tax)

Mitigation Scenario 1SECTOR MITIGATION MEASUREWASTE Methane destruction > Reference scenario

SERVICES Moreefficient light bulbs

ENERGY Sugar Cane BagasseWind Power

TRANSPORT

Traffic managementBike waysEnergy efficiency programs for light vehiclesEthanol: + 6 Billion liters Biodiesel – B10BRTEnergy efficiency programs for heavy vehicles

AFOLU

Biological nitrogen fixation (Corn)Pasture restorationcrop-livestock-forestry integration systems(+2M ha)Aforestation – 12.5 M haReforestation – Atlantic forestSugar cane area increase (M1)

INDUSTRYCement: Reduction from 3,50 GJ/t clinquer in 2010 to 3,1 in 2030 and increase co-processing in 75% from 2010 levelSteel: 2% reduction in energy intensity related to 2010

Mitigation Scenario 2

SETOR MEDIDAS DE MITIGAÇÃO

RESIDENTIALSolar waterheatingEfficient light bulbsEfficient refrigerators

WASTE Methane destruction > Mitigation scenario 1SERVICES Efficient light bulbs > Mitigation scenario 1

ENERGY

Bagasse = MA1WindPower = MA1Refining efficiency > MA1Hidro power increase > reference scenario

TRANSPORT

Traffic managementEthanol: + 16 Billion liters (6 billion liters from 2G)

Bike waysEnergy efficiency programs for light vehiclesEnergy efficiency programs for heavy vehiclesModal shift to rail and hidro for load transportVLTSubwayBiodiesel - B15

Mitigation Scenario 2

AFOLU

Biological nitrogen fixation (Corn)Pasture restorationcrop-livestock-forestry integration systems(+2M ha)Aforestation – 15 M haReforestation – Atlantic forestSugar cane area increase (M2)

INDUSTRYCement: Reduction from 3,50 GJ/t clinquer in 2010 to 2.85 in 2030 and increase co-processing in 75% from 2010 levelSteel: 5% reduction in energy intensity related to 2010

SECTOR MITIGATION MEASURES

Modelling mitigation measures in IMACLIM-BR

• IMACLIM-BR is a hybrid general equilibrium model• Monetary (M R$2005) e phisical (Ktep) flows are represented

• Mitigation measures modelling:• Technical coefficients changes according to Bottom-up

information:• Fuel changes or reduction: technical coefficients are

changed according to sectoral specific information for each measure• Investments – Capital intensity of the sector changes

according to sectoral specific information for each measure

Methodological Approach

Mitigation Measures

Identification

Costs and Abatement Potential

Sectorial models simulation

Costs and potentials verified and/or corrected

Simulation of the measures in IMACLIM

Correction of Level of Activity of the sector and balance

between supply and demand

Results for SBT 4

2005 2013 CPG-2030 MA1-T MA2-TPopulation (10^6) 185 196 223 223 223GDP (10^12 R$2005) 2.14 3.24 5.54 5.32 5.04 GDP Growth per year (%) 3.87% 3.70% 3.48%GDP variation in relation to CPG in 2030 -4% -10%GHG emission reduction in relation to CGP in 2030 -15,8% -33,4%GHG emissions (Mt CO2eq./year) 2351 1539 1296 1025GDP per capita (10^3 R$2005) 11.57 16.52 24.83 23.84 22.60

Macroeconomic Results

2005 2013 CPG-2030 MA1-T MA2-TTotal Jobs (10^6) 91.21 100.06 126.18 125.32 124.55 Unemployment rate(%) 9.90% 6.70% 5.19% 5.84% 6.41%Price index in relation to 2005 (%) 4,7% 6,4% 12,5% Trade Balance (10^6 R$2005) 78.8 3.90 15.84 32.75 44.32 TradeBalance (% GDP) 3.70% 0.12% 0.29% 0.62% 0.88%Investment rate (% of GDP) 15.50% 18.19% 20.84% 21.06% 20.78%Investments excluding mitigation (10^12R$2005) 0.33 0.59 1.15 1.12 1.05 Total Mitigation Investments 2015-2030 (10^9 R$2005) 230.06 563.82 Mitigation investments in 2030 (Bi de R$2005) 11.71 29.26 Mit. Invest./GDP in 2030 0.22% 0.58%


Macroeconomic ResultsPhisical production - Energy goods

Biomass (Ktep)

Coal (Ktep)

Oil (Ktep)

Natural G

as (Ktep)

Oil deriv

atives (

Ktep)

Eletricit

y (Ktep)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

CPG 2030 = 100%

CPG-2030MA1-TMA2-T

Macroeconomic ResultsPhisical production – Industrial goods

Pulp&Paper (M

t)

Cement (M

t)

Steel (M

t)

Non Ferro

us (M

t)

Chemical

Mining

Rest of In

dustry

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

CPG 2030 = 100%

CPG-2030MA1-TMA2-T

Macroeconomic ResultsPhisical Production – Other sectors

Transport Agriculture Services86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

CPG 2030 = 1

CPG-2030MA1-TMA2-T


Biomass (Ktep)

Oil (Ktep)

Natural Gas (

Ktep)

Oil deriv

atives (Ktep)

Pulp&Paper (M t)

Cement (M t)

Steel (M t)

Non Ferrous (

M t)

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

Net Exports (ktep or M tons)

CPG-2030MA1-TMA2-T

Macroeconomic ResultsIncome Classes definitions

Income Class Minimum wages in base year

(125 US$ in 2005)

Population distribution

Class 1 Up to 2 mw Poorest 15%

Class 2 from 3 to 10 mw Next 55%

Class 3 More than 10 mw Richest 30%


GDP per Capita(R$

2005)

Average Income by Class(R$ 2005)

Total Class 1 Class 2 Class 3

Base year - 2005 11,588 1,169 4,421 26,360

CPG - 2030Average growth per year

24,870 3.1%

3,2514.2%

10,7863.6%

46,8512.3%

MA1_T

Average growth per year 23,880

2.9% 3,112

4.0% 10,336

3.5% 45,012

2.2%

MA2_T

Average growth per year 22,630

2.7% 2,977

3.8% 9,882

3.3% 43,082

2.0%

GDP per capita and average income by class

Macroeconomic ResultsAverage family consumption by class

Classe 1 Classe 2 Classe 3 -

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Agricultural products (R$ 2005)

Ano-base 2005CPG - 2030MA1_TMA2_T



200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Transport Services (R$ 2005)


Average family consumption by class



200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Other Services (R$ 2005)


Average family consumption by class

GHG Emissions (Mt CO2 eq.)

Emission reductions % 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 MA1-T 0% 8% 10% 6% 16%MA2-T 0% 11% 17% 21% 33%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CPG 1236.03351536254

1205.68750029621

1239.72028062907

1313.49333005794

1539.19631060002

MA1-T 1236.03351536254

1115.24574393682

1120.03892811857

1233.2297402394

1296

MA2-T 1236.03351536254

1078.09218891695

1026.42570814401

1040.98756948858

1024.50627796302

850 950

1050 1150 1250 1350 1450 1550

Mt C

O2e

q.

GHG Emission (Mt CO2 eq.)

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 -

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

CPG-2030

AFOLUTransportIndustryEnergy SupplyResidentialServicesAgricultureWaste

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 -

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

MA1-T

AFOLUTransportIndustryEnergy SupplyResidentialServicesAgricultureWaste

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 -

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

MA2-T

AFOLUIndustryTransportEnergy SupplyResidentialServicesAgricultureWaste

GHG Emission by Sector(Mt CO2 eq.)

2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

AFOLU

CPGMA1-TMA2-T

Mt

CO2e

q.

2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Transport

CPGMA1-TMA2-T

Mt

CO2e

q.

2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Industry

CPGMA1-TMA2-T

Mt

CO2e

q.

2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Energy Supply

CPGMA1-TMA2-T

Mt

CO2e

q.

GHG Emission by Sector(Mt CO2 eq.)

2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agriculture

CPGMA1-TMA2-T

Mt

CO2e

q.

2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

1

2

3

4

5

6

Services

CPGMA1-TMA2-T

Mt

CO2e

q.

2010 2015 2020 2025 203030

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Waste

CPGMA1-TMA2-T

Mt

CO2e

q.

2010 2015 2020 2025 203040

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56Residential

CPGMA1-TMA2-T

Mt

CO2e

q.

Some indicators...

2005 2010 CPG-2030 MA1-T MA2-T -

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

12.71

8.07 8.51 7.20

5.73

ton CO2eq./capita

2005 2010 CPG-2030 MA1-T MA2-T -

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

2.42

1.13

0.63 0.55 0.46

ton CO2eq./GDP (10^3US$)

2.4 Brazil 2005

Brazil MA2

Brazil MA1

Brazil CPG-2030

Brazil 2010

International Energy Agency - World Energy Outlook 2013

Thank You!

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Uma iniciativa Apoio Reference Scenario - Government Plan World – GDP growth 2013-2020: 3.8% per...

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