Ulisses T Mello, Ph.D. Global Research Leader – … · © 2010 IBM Corporation Smarter Resources...

© 2010 IBM Corporation

Smarter Resources to Fuel a Smarter Planet

Ulisses T Mello, Ph.D.

Global Research Leader – Chemicals, Petroleum, & Mining

IBM Research


2010 Global Petroleum Conference

A mandate for change is a mandate for smart.



Something meaningful is happening.

A smarter planet holds enormous promise for progress.

Every natural system and man-made system is becoming interconnected, instrumented and intelligent.



Smarter planet: Thinking and acting in new ways to make our systems more efficient, productive and responsive.

� GREEN

AND BEYOND

� SMART

WORK

� NEW

INTELLIGENCE

� DYNAMIC

INFRASTRUCTURE



A smarter planet empowers organizations to do more, using less.

Stockholm, Sweden: An intelligent toll system in the city center resulted in 20% less traffic, 40% lower emissions and 40,000 additional users of the public transportation system.

IBM’s Carbon Tradeoff Modeler: Manages and performs analytics to help companies reduce emissions and make smarter, more cost-effective energy choices.

River and Estuary Observatory Network: Will create the first technology-based real-time environmental monitoring and forecasting network to guide better policy, management and education for the Hudson River and estuaries worldwide.

U.S. power company: Saves $1.2 million annually by using an RFID-based fleet optimization system to reduce the amount of repair work on their vehicles.



What smart things are happeningin the oil and gas industry today?

Where are the greatestopportunities for progress?



In 25 years global energy consumption

will increase by 50%

As we move toward a renewable

future, we need to shape our

hydrocarbon present in ways that are

more efficient, affordable and

protective of the environment



Risk and Compliance

Pressures

Climate Change

and Environmental

Concerns

Volatility of Energy Supply and Demand

Operational

Transformation

Advances in

Technology

Industry

Challenges &

Opportunities

Global market forces require a new approach for the oil & gas industry



EXPLORATION

PRODUCTION

SHIPPING

REFININGSTORAGE

DISTRIBUTION

RETAIL

A smarter oil and gas organization must apply new technologies and processes that will capture and transform raw data into

actionable insight:

� Capture and process a variety of data to identify previously inaccessible reserves and improve well performance

� Boost asset availability, flexibility, and reliability to achieve greater responsiveness to market fluctuations

� Increase visibility, mitigate risk, and lower costs across the supply chain

DATA INSIGHT ACTION

The oil & gas value chain must evolve to become smarter



An opportunity for oil and gas companies to think and act in new ways.

Enhance exploration

and production

Improve asset

managementOptimize global

operations

+ + =INSTRUMENTED INTERCONNECTED INTELLIGENT



Analytics Landscape

Degree of Complexity

Com

petitive A

dvanta

ge

Standard Reporting

Ad hoc reporting

Query/drill down

Alerts

Forecasting

Simulation

Predictive modeling

Optimization

What exactly is the problem?

What will happen next if ?

What could happen … ?

What if these trends continue?

What actions are needed?

How many, how often, where?

What happened?

Stochastic Optimization

Based on: Competing on Analytics, Davenport and Harris, 2007

Descriptive

Prescriptive

Predictive

How can we achieve the best outcome?

How can we achieve the best outcome including the effects of variability?

INTELLIGENT



IBM Smarter Solutions for Oil: enabling smarter decisions faster

Predictive AnalyticsReactive

MaintenanceProactiveMaintenance• Reduce maintenance costs by 20%* by slashing emergency

maintenance – facilitated by predictive systems

Reactive Operations

Planned Operations

• Increase throughput via better use of models to determine set points before operating conditions change

* IBM industry insights

Real-Time VisibilityEngineers

gather data, then analyze

Engineers analyze, then act

• Increase productivity by reducing data gathering from 75% of workload* to 0% of workload

Effective CollaborationEngineers in each

plant monitor equipment

Equipment monitors equipment and remote

engineers are leveraged

• Improve productivity of engineers and operations staff in the plant

Production manages complex events on their

own – external help is by appointment

Production has help in real time, with experts• For complex events, reduce event resolution cycle time by

75 – 90% *

Continuous OptimizationOperators

conservatively maintain

steady operations

Operators are enabled to achieve economic and operational

optimum

• Improve process unit economics at both local and global level

Typical Way Smarter Way



IBM’s Smarter Oil and Gas Solutions – Overall Approach

Smart Integrated Operations EnablementOne open channel to all data required to operate assets in real time

Semantic Model Standard-Based Standardized Metrics Event Management

INSTRUMENTED

Ability to measure, sense and monitor the condition of almost everything.

INTERCONNECTED

People, systems and objects can communicate and interact with each other in entirely new ways.

INTELLIGENT

Respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results by predicting and optimizing for future events.

Smart Oil and Gas SolutionsComprehensive set of capabilities to enable smarter decisions faster

Visibility Collaboration Analytics Optimization


2010 Global Petroleum Conference IBM’s Smarter Solutions for Oil and Gas

Exploration RefineryTerminal/

DepotRetail

StationCrudeSupply

SecondaryDistribution

PrimaryDistributionProduction

Upstream Downstream

SupportingResources

Enterprise Resource PlanningEnterprise Resource Planning-- Upstream, Downstream (Petroleum, Oil Sands, Natural Gas, ChemicUpstream, Downstream (Petroleum, Oil Sands, Natural Gas, Chemicals) Templates als) Templates

Smart Integrated Operations Enablement Smart Integrated Operations Enablement Reference Semantic Models, Adaptors, Data Integrity, VisualizatiReference Semantic Models, Adaptors, Data Integrity, Visualization, Event Management, Rule Processingon, Event Management, Rule Processing

Smart ExplorationSmart Exploration-- Large Scale Basin Modeling,Large Scale Basin Modeling,

-- Seismic Processing / DigitalizationSeismic Processing / Digitalization-- Rendering & Visualization Rendering & Visualization

Smart Performance Monitoring and Remote Operations Smart Performance Monitoring and Remote Operations -- Well Monitoring, Well Monitoring, -- Production Target MonitoringProduction Target Monitoring

-- KPI Tracking, Virtual Worlds Collaboration KPI Tracking, Virtual Worlds Collaboration

Smart Asset Management Smart Asset Management -- ConditionCondition--Based Maintenance: Early Event Warning, Static, Rotating and EleBased Maintenance: Early Event Warning, Static, Rotating and Electrical Equipment Monitoring, MRO Forecasting, MRO Inventory Plactrical Equipment Monitoring, MRO Forecasting, MRO Inventory Planning, MRO Procurement and Logistics nning, MRO Procurement and Logistics

-- Turnaround Optimization, Maintenance Planning and Scheduling, Turnaround Optimization, Maintenance Planning and Scheduling, Corrosion Monitoring, Field Asset TrackingCorrosion Monitoring, Field Asset Tracking-- Greenfield Automatic Model Creation, Engineering Design to CommGreenfield Automatic Model Creation, Engineering Design to Commissioning Management issioning Management

Smart Retail SolutionsSmart Retail Solutions-- Service Station Back Office Service Station Back Office

-- Fuel & Convenience Store Solutions Fuel & Convenience Store Solutions

Smart Operations Upstream Supply Chain Optimization Smart Operations Upstream Supply Chain Optimization -- Supplies (fluids, diesel, chemicals, repair parts, food and wateSupplies (fluids, diesel, chemicals, repair parts, food and water) Planning & Schedulingr) Planning & Scheduling

-- Workforce Scheduling, Emergency Scheduling Workforce Scheduling, Emergency Scheduling

Smart Operations Downstream Supply Chain OptimizationSmart Operations Downstream Supply Chain Optimization-- Blending Optimization, Refinery Scheduling, Pipeline Scheduling Blending Optimization, Refinery Scheduling, Pipeline Scheduling

-- Chemical Plant Scheduling, Tank Truck Scheduling, Workforce ScChemical Plant Scheduling, Tank Truck Scheduling, Workforce Schedulingheduling

Level3*

Level4*

Smart Health, Safety, Security and EnvironmentSmart Health, Safety, Security and Environment-- Supply Chain Sustainability Management, Compliance Management, Supply Chain Sustainability Management, Compliance Management, Environment Management, Safety and Security, Audit and InspectioEnvironment Management, Safety and Security, Audit and Inspections, Risk Compliance Monitor ns, Risk Compliance Monitor

Cross Cross IndustryIndustry

Strategy & Strategy & TransformationTransformation-- Green StrategyGreen Strategy

-- Merge & Merge & AcquisitionsAcquisitions

-- Workforce & Workforce & Talent SolutionsTalent Solutions

AdvancedAdvancedAnalyticsAnalytics

-- Customer Customer AnalyticsAnalytics

(social network (social network analysis, pricing analysis, pricing

optimization)optimization)

-- Financial Financial Analytics Analytics (financial (financial

integrated risk integrated risk management)management)

-- Operations Operations Analytics Analytics (workforce (workforce

analytics, supply analytics, supply chain risk chain risk

management) management)

-- Core Core Analytics Analytics

(data (data governance, governance, master data master data

management, management, enterprise enterprise

content content management)management)

Smart WaterSmart WaterSmart Smart

BuildingBuilding

Production Execution Production Execution Platform Production Management, Refinery Production Management, Platform Production Management, Refinery Production Management, Petrochemical Production Management, Government Specific SolutioPetrochemical Production Management, Government Specific Solutions ns

Sensors, Actuators and NetworksSensors, Actuators and Networks

Facility Monitoring Systems (FMS), Digital Control Systems (DCS)Facility Monitoring Systems (FMS), Digital Control Systems (DCS), Historians , Historians Levels0, 1, 2*

CrudeAcquisition

* ISA-95Level Definition



Supercomputing Peek Speed Trend - Moore Law

2008Petaflop 11yrs 2019

Exaflop

RR



Interconnected and interdependent models will provide the intelligence to predict outcomes and exercise closed loop control

Command & ControlCentralized; Distributed;

Peer-to-Peer

Control Platform

ActionsCapturing(Devices, Sensors, Imaging, Cell Phones)

High fidelity, continuous, human assist

Real world

Data & Measurement Platform

Distributed Energy Supply-Chains Water Systems

Simulation & Prediction

(What if Analysis)

Multi-Modal, Multi-domain

Decision Model

(Optimum/ robust action)

Data validation,Interpolation and

ExplanationPoint detection � Field

Reconstruction � Connectingthe Dots

Context & constraints

PotentialOutcomes

Observedworlds

Modeling & Orchestration Platform

Action(s)

High-Quality Trusted Data

(Regulation& Policies)

assimilation /inversion

UncertaintyAssessment

Oil & Gas



Examples of R&D activities that are creating technologies to enable the Smarter Oil & Gas vision

�Two major domains:

- Smart Exploration and Production using Computational Geosciences

and High Performance Computing

� HCP and Reverse Time Migration (with Repsol)

� Large-scale basin Modeling (Eni & Petrobras)

- Smart Integrated Operations / Smart Oil Fields

� Integration infrastructure - IIF (Statoil)

� Condition-based Maintenance - CBM

� Turnaround optimization (with Statoil)

� 4D Seismic history matching (with Shell)



Computational Geosciences: Large-scale Basin Modelling Improved modelling of the complex geological processes

Client Petrobras & EniRequirement Reduce the risk involved with finding new oil fields. Provide a better understanding

of basin evolution including salt motion

Problem / Issue The dynamics of the geological basins are not directly observable.Complexity lurk inside – Mobile Rocks (Salt) behave like fluids under pressure.Conditions can change the rock properties and impact in well prospects.Need to understand those issues. Therefore basin simulation models are used to visualise the evolution of basins. The better the model, the better the petroleum systems definition and exploration.Current numerical basin models are not able to handle such structural complexity

Solution New large-scale, numerical simulator using unstructured (tetrahedral) meshes Provide unprecedented simulation of complex geological structures. Designed from the scratch using object-oriented technologies using C++.New algorithms for dealing with compaction/geomechanics.Used XML technology to integrate related systems. New highly scalable parallel version in development.

Simulating the interaction of complex geological processes Such as geological basin formation, compaction, salt motion and fault displacement as well as multiphase fluid flow in porous sediments during the evolution of sedimentary basins. Better numerical models improve significantly the risk assessment of new prospects in new frontiers as well as in mature basins requiring rejuvenation



Gulf of Mexico Basin Modeling – Target 1 Billion Cells

Mello et al, 1998 & 2009

Parallel partition

Solution in minutes using

1024 cores



SAGD Reservoir Simulation – High Performance Computing

1.Their businesses ..- Needed to get more out of existing assets, in addition to drilling new wells- Had significantly increased their dependence on Reservoir Simulation and

Geocellular Modeling; and- Needed to be able to solve increasingly complex problems using advanced

simulation and modeling techniques

2.Key business decisions were often made without the benefit of complete

analysis being done. (“what if” simulations weren’t being done); and

3.Their current IT infrastructure was a major limiting factor in supporting

improved Reservoir Simulation and Geocellular Modeling.

Six IBM Canadian clients faced the following challenges



iP AQ

BLACKBERRY

Simulation and Collaboration Environment Solution Overview





� Ability to run multiple realizations of the reservoir in a shorter time to

assess parametric sensitivity

� Operational what-if and optimization problems can be simulated in

hours instead of days to provide additional insight for decisions

“This solution is positioning us for the future and helping define the kind of company we want to be.”- Manager, Reservoir Simulation

SOLUTION

Management of simulation environment is controlled

by a workload scheduler to maximize utilization of

available computing resources

The high performance computing environment can

handle many simultaneous small simulation runs or a

single very large simulation

A single method of submitted and reviewing

simulation runs

Significant speedup of reservoir simulations (range of

5-15x) by using high performance multi-core servers



Case: – Extending the life of oil and natural gas fields by the joint inversion of well and 4D seismic data for historymatching

� IBM's long-standing analytics and simulation experience will meet Shell's strong subsurface and reservoir expertise to create a more efficient, more accurate picture for reservoir modeling.

� The companies will explore advanced techniques for reconciling geophysical and reservoir engineering field data.

� As a result of applying improved algorithms, analytics and accelerated simulations, Shell can reduce the educated guesswork and extract natural resources with more certainty and efficiency, thereby optimizing the recovery of oil and gas.

HOUSTON & ARMONK, N.Y. - 26 Feb 2010:An example of the type of modeling image Shell uses to

represent a very complex set of data. The collaboration with

IBM is expected to bring even greater clarity to reservoir

modeling.



Challenges and Technical Innovations Expected

� Uncertain spatio-temporal data (reservoir characterization)

� Data with different space and temporal scales

� Very large number of variables

� Large-scale optimization problem

� Non-convex objective function and nonlinear constraints

� Exploitation of problem structure - physical and computational

� Sparse representation – a model can be represented compactly by a small number of parameters by choosing an appropriate representation that exploits the spatial resolution of the reservoir

� Model reduction – the model large dimensionality can be reduced by using techniques as multi-level formulation, which targets efficient computation and robustness

� Regularization – modern regularization techniques are expected to be used to represent a-priori information more reliably and ensure coupling of data relationships

� Coupling - Improve degree of coupling between seismic and well data using information- and physics-based coupling



Statoil Example - TAIL Integrated OperationsA research project with focus on the Industries

Challenges

Robotics technology

Mobile ICT infrastructure

Conditionand

Performancemonitoring

Wirelesscommunication

Collaborativevisualization

Turnaroundsand

shutdowns

Concepts for safe and cost-effective

operations of facilities

Commonintegration

architecture



Slide 26

Smart Integrated Operations – Condition-based Monitoring Overview

� Condition-based Monitoring requires 4 functions all of which have analytics at their core:- Monitoring- Prediction and - Diagnosis- Maintenance planning and scheduling

� Monitoring (mainly meant for alerting)- Model-based- Data driven

� Prediction (A predictive model of expected behavior)- Data mining and machine learning to pro-actively identify the onset of aberrant behavior

� Diagnosis- Root cause analysis- Rule based systems and production systems for diagnostic reasoning- Sequential decision making

� Maintenance planning and scheduling:- Long term preventative planning - Scheduling jobs (preventative and repair)



Slide 27

Predictive Modeling and Maintenance PlanningTurnaround Optimization

Repairs Environmental Factors

P*(t)

MAINTENANCE PERIOD

PLANNED DOWNTIME

UNEXPECTED DOWNTIME

AVAILABILITY

DO

WN

TIM

E

ADAPTIVELY LEARNPARAMETERS

PARAMETRIC MODELADAPTATION

OK D1 F

R1

R0

R2

TempR3

pΛ(τ) µ(τ)

ρ(τ)

4 states, characterized by a penalty on

production

• OK (as good as new)• Deteriorated • Failed • Temporarily repaired

α(τ)



The framework provides:

� An approach to link technology directly with the business goals it supports

� Solution accelerators to speed deployment of new capabilities

� Re-usable implementation patterns to lower risk and decrease time-to-value

� Support for open/industry standards

� Choice of business applications and services from IBM business partners

The IBM C&P Integrated Information Framework creates a more flexible foundation for increased growth and efficiency

IBM Chemical and Petroleum Integrated Information Framework

Business partner solutions

IBM Chemical and Petroleum industry Solutions

Consistent C&P

Representation

Standardize processesand

Performance Measures

Industry Standards Support

The framework combines market-leading technology capabilities with pre-built solution accelerators, best

practices, and implementation patterns

Visualization in Context ofEquipment Operations

The IBM Chemical and Petroleum Integrated Information Framework Underpins our Industry Business Solutions



Physical Asset ControlReal-time Systems

Enterprise Business Systems

Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)

OpenO&MOpenO&MOpenO&MOpenO&M™™™™

F O U N D A T I O N

Op

era

tion

s

Maintenance

The OpenO&M™ InitiativeBrings People Processes and Technology Together



Smarter Oil and Gas: A Look into the Future

�Advanced water management

�Carbon capture and sequestration

�Tracking of long-term environmental

impacts

�Stream computing



Let’s Build a Smarter Planet

� IBM is collaborating with the broader oil and gas industry ecosystem of service providers, control system companies, and enterprise software companies to provide choice and flexibility from a portfolio of integrated technologies.

� We are actively working to help make the intelligent oilfield a reality by developing thought leadership, driving standards, building industry consensus, and delivering unique, innovative technologies.

� Oil Sands Centre of Excellence: IBM’s Calgary Oil Sands Development Center focuses on technologies designed to improve oil sands development projects; from construction and project management, to labor productivity, process optimization and environmental management. Key technologies available at the Oil Sands Center of Excellence include Asset Lifecycle Management, Deep Computing Visualization, Intelligent Plant, and Supply Chain Management.

� IBM is committed to the Canadian oil and gas industry. IBM was first established in Canada in 1917 and has been expanding ever since. Currently in Alberta, IBM has approximately 2300 employees to serve our clients. This includes the energy branch team, who are dedicated to serving our clients in the Canadian energy sector.

What Makes IBM Different



For General Questions Call:

Tom OlverPhone: 403-539-3925Email: [email protected]

For Integrated Information Framework Questions Call:Andy MacRaePhone: 403-539-3705Email: [email protected]

Ulisses T Mello, Ph.D. Global Research Leader – … · © 2010 IBM Corporation Smarter Resources...

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Transcript of Ulisses T Mello, Ph.D. Global Research Leader – … · © 2010 IBM Corporation Smarter Resources...