ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecastuli.org/.../ULI-Real-Estate-Consensus-Forecast-5...ULI Real Estate...
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ULI Real Estate Consensus
Forecast A Survey of Leading Real Estate Economists/Analysts
September 2012
Dean Schwanke
Executive Director
ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate
Urban Land Institute
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
• Three-year forecast for 26 economic and real estate indicators
• Responses from 39 leading real estate economists/analysts
• Respondents represent major real estate investment, advisory, and
research firms and organizations
• Survey undertaken from August 21 to September 14, 2012
• A semiannual survey; next release planned for March 2013
• Forecasts for:
– Broad economic indicators
– Real estate capital markets
– Property investment returns for four property types
– Vacancy rates and rents for five property types
– Housing starts and prices
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Overview
The ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast for September 2012 projects
continued improvements for the U.S. economy, real estate capital
markets, commercial real estate fundamentals, and housing over the
next three years. However, the predictions diverge from the previous
Forecast from March in that they are generally less optimistic regarding
the economy and the performance of commercial real estate, and more
optimistic regarding the single-family housing sector.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Key Findings
• Commercial property transaction volume is expected to increase by
21%; the projection in the spring was for a 50% increase.
• CMBS issuance is expected to nearly double.
• Institutional real estate assets and REITs are expected to provide
returns ranging from 8.5% to 15% annually over the next 3 years.
• Vacancy rates are expected to moderately decline for office, retail,
and industrial properties and remain stable at low levels for
apartments; hotel occupancy rates are expected to improve.
• Rents are expected to increase for the four major property types in
2013, ranging from 1.2% for retail up to 4.8% for apartments.
• Single-family housing starts are projected to increase by 100,000
units in 2012 and 145,000 units in 2013, and home prices are
expected to rise 3.2% in 2012 and 3.9% in 2013.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Economy
The survey of economists/analysts finds that real GDP is expected to
grow by 2.0% in 2012, 2.0% in 2013, and 2.9% by 2014, with the
unemployment rate falling to 8.1% by the end of 2012, 7.8% by the end
of 2013, and 7.0% by the end of 2014. These forecasts are down
considerably from the spring 2012 forecast, which forecast the GDP
would grow by 3.0% in 2013.
Employment is expected to increase by 1.8 million jobs in 2012, 2.0
million in 2013, and 2.4 million in 2014. These numbers are also down
from the last forecast, which projected 2.5 million new jobs in 2013.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Real GDP Growth
-3.1%
2.4%
1.8% 2.0% 2.0%
2.9%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast data, 2012-
2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14 was: 2.5%. 3.0%. 3.2%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Unemployment Rate
9.9% 9.4%
8.5% 8.1%
7.8%
7.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, year-end data 2009-2011; ULI Consensus
Forecast, year-end data, 2012-2014. ULI Consensus Forecast data, 2012-2014. Note:
The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14 was: 8.0%. 7.5%. 6.9%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Employment Growth
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, year-end data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast, year-
end data, 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14 was: 2.0. 2.5.
2.75.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
-5.06
1.03
1.84 1.80 2.00
2.40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mil
lio
ns o
f Jo
bs
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Inflation, Interest Rates, and Cap Rates
Inflation and interest rates are expected to remain low, and projections
are down from six months ago, due largely to slow economic growth
and recent Fed actions and policy guidance. Inflation is expected to
drop to 1.9% in 2012, then rise slightly to 2% in 2013 and 2.5% in 2014.
Ten-year treasury rates are also projected to decline slightly by the end
of 2012, before rising to 2.3% by the end of 2013, and 3.0% by the end
of 2014.
While these rising rates will modestly increase borrowing costs for real
estate investors, the survey respondents do not expect substantial
increases in real estate capitalization rates for institutional-quality
investments (NCREIF cap rates), which are expected to decrease
slightly to 5.9% in 2012 and then rise to 6.2% in 2013 and 6.3% in
2014. These cap rate projections are similar to those of six months ago,
and this bodes well for commercial real estate values.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Consumer Price Index Inflation Rate
2.8%
1.4%
3.0%
1.9% 2.0%
2.5%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, year-end data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus
Forecast, year-end data, 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for
2012-14 was: 2.4%. 2.8%. 3.0%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Ten-Year Treasury Rate
3.9%
3.3%
1.9% 1.8%
2.3%
3.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, year-end data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast,
year-end data, 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14
was: 2.4%. 3.1%. 3.8%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
NCREIF Capitalization Rate
6.9%
6.3%
6.0%
5.9%
6.2% 6.3%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF), year-end data,
2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast, year-end data, 2012-2014. Note: The previous
(March 2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14 was: 6.0%. 6.0%. 6.2%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Real Estate Capital Markets
Commercial real estate transaction volume has recovered nicely from
2009 levels and is stabilizing. Volume is expected to decline slightly--
from $227 billion in 2011 to $223 billion in 2012--before increasing to
$250 billion in 2013 and $275 billion in 2014.
Issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), a key
source of financing for commercial real estate, is expected to increase
marginally, from $33 billion in 2011 to $35 billion in 2012, before rising
to $45 billion in 2013, and $60 billion in 2014.
All of these projections are down 10-20% from six months ago.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Commercial Real Estate Transaction Volume
$66
$141
$227 $223
$250
$275
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil
lio
ns
of
Do
lla
rs
Sources: Real Capital Analytics, annual data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast,
annual data, 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14
was: $250. $290. $312.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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$3
$12
$33 $35
$45
$60
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil
lio
ns o
f D
oll
ars
ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Issuance
Sources: Commercial Mortgage Alert, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast
data, year-end 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast
for 2012-14 was: $40. $58. $75.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Real Estate Returns
Total returns for institutional-quality real estate investments are
expected to remain solid, close to historic norms but generally below
very strong returns in recent years.
Equity REIT total returns, according to NAREIT, were very strong at
28% in both 2009 and 2010, then moderated to 8.3% in 2011. Future
returns, according to the ULI Consensus Forecast, are expected to rise
to 15.0% in 2012, then slow to 10.0% in 2013 and 2014.
Returns for institutional-quality direct real estate investments, as
measured by the NCREIF Property Index, have also been strong over
the past two years, with returns of 13.1% in 2010 and 14.3% in 2011.
These returns are expected to remain strong but trend lower, with
returns of 10% in 2012, and 8.5% in 2013 and 2014. These forecasts
are down slightly from the March forecasts.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Equity REIT Total Annual Returns
28.0% 28.0%
8.3%
15.0%
10.0% 10.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, annual data,
2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast, annual data, 2012-2014. Note: The previous
(March 2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14 was: 10.0%. 9.0%. 8.5%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
NCREIF Total Annual Returns
-16.9%
13.1% 14.3%
10.0% 8.5% 8.5%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF), annual data,
2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast, annual data, 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March
2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14 was: 11.0%, 9.5%. 8.5%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
NCREIF Returns by Property Type
By property type, NCREIF total returns in 2012 are expected to be
strongest for retail (11.4%), followed by apartments (11.1%), industrial
(10.4%), and office (9.4%).
By 2014, however, returns are expected to be strongest for industrial
(8.9%), followed by office (8.7%), retail (8.0%), and apartments (7.8%).
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
NCREIF Retail Total Annual Returns
-11.0%
12.6% 13.8%
11.4%
8.5% 8.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF),
annual data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast, annual data, 2012-2014.
Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14 was: 10.0%, 8.5%.
8.5%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
NCREIF Apartment Total Annual Returns
-17.5%
18.2%
15.5%
11.1%
8.8% 7.8%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF), annual
data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast, annual data, 2012-2014. Note: The
previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14 was: 12.1%, 10.0%. 8.8%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
NCREIF Industrial Total Annual Returns
-17.9%
9.4%
14.6%
10.4% 9.1% 8.9%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF),
annual data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast, annual data, 2012-2014.
Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14 was: 11.5%, 9.3%.
10.0%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
NCREIF Office Total Annual Returns
-19.1%
11.7% 13.8%
9.4% 8.6% 8.7%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF), annual
data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast, annual data, 2012-2014. Note: The
previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14 was: 10.8%, 9.3%. 10.0%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Apartment Sector Fundamentals
The apartment sector has performed very well over the past two years,
and vacancy rates have come down substantially from 7.4% in 2009 to
a very low 5.2% in 2011, according to CBRE. Year-end vacancy rates,
according to the ULI Forecast, are expected to decline further in 2012
to 4.7%, hold steady in 2013, and rise slightly to 4.9% in 2014. These
vacancy rate projections are even lower than they were six months
ago.
Apartments are also expected to show strong rental rate growth, with
rents expected to rise 4.8% in 2012, then moderating to 3.5% in 2013
and 3.0% in 2014 as new supply comes on line. These rental rate
forecasts are below the projections from March.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Apartment Vacancy Rates
7.4%
6.0%
5.2%
4.7% 4.7% 4.9%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: CBRE, year-end data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast, year-
end data, 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for
2012-14 was: 5.0%, 5.1%. 5.3%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Apartment Rental Rate Change
-4.7%
1.4%
4.9% 4.8%
3.5% 3.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: CBRE year-end data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast data,
year-end 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for
2012-14 was: 5.0%, 4.0%. 3.8%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Industrial/Warehouse Sector Fundamentals
The industrial/warehouse sector is expected to see continued modest
declines in vacancy from 13.6% in 2011 down to 13.0% by the end of
2012, 12.4% in 2013, and 11.9% by the end of 2014. This forecast is
less optimistic than six months ago.
Warehouse rental rates, which declined substantially in 2009 and 2010
and slightly in 2011, according to CBRE, are expected to show growing
strength, with an increase of 2.0% in 2012, 2.5% in 2013, and 3.1% in
2014, according to the ULI Consensus Forecast. While the forecast for
2012 is up, the forecasts for the out years are down from the March ULI
Forecast.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Industrial/Warehouse Availability Rates
14.4% 14.4% 13.6%
13.0% 12.4%
11.9%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: CBRE year-end data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast, year-end
data, 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14
was: 12.8%, 12.1%. 11.5%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Warehouse Rental Rate Change
-10.3%
-6.7%
-0.6%
2.0% 2.5%
3.1%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: CBRE year-end data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast data,
year-end 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for
2012-14 was: 1.9%, 3.0%. 3.6%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Office Sector Fundamentals
Office vacancy rates, which remain high and have declined only slightly
in recent years, are expected to decline from 16.0% at the end of 2011
to 15.5% in 2012, 14.8% in 2013, and 14.0% by the end of 2014. The
earlier March forecast projected rates dropping to 12.3% by 2014, so
optimism has diminished considerably for the out years in the latest
forecast.
Office rental rates, which declined substantially in 2009 and 2010 and
then rose by 3.1% in 2011, according to CBRE, are expected to
continue to strengthen, with an increase of 2.5% in 2012, 3.1% in 2013,
and 4.0% in 2014. However, the 2012 and 2013 forecasts are down
substantially from the March forecast.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Office Vacancy Rates
16.6% 16.5%
16.0%
15.5%
14.8%
14.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: CBRE year-end data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast data,
year-end 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for
2012-14 was: 15.4%, 14.4%. 12.3%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Office Rental Rate Change
-12.3%
-4.6%
3.1% 2.5%
3.1% 4.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: CBRE year-end data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast data,
year-end 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for
2012-14 was: 3.0%, 3.7%. 4.3%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Retail Sector Fundamentals
Retail vacancy rates remain high, but should see some modest
improvements over the next three years, with rates expected to decline
to 12.9% by the end of 2012, 12.5% by 2013, and 12.2% by 2014,
similar to the numbers in the March forecast.
Retail rental rates, which have declined substantially over the past
three years, are projected to stay flat in 2012, then increase in 2013
(1.2%) and 2014 (2.5%). These rental rate forecasts are down from the
previous forecast in March, which projected a 2.0% increase for 2013.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Retail Availability Rates
12.7%
13.0%
13.1%
12.9%
12.5%
12.2%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: CBRE year-end data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast data,
year-end 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for
2012-14 was: 13.0%, 12.5%. 12.0%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Retail Rental Rate Change
-4.9% -5.2%
-2.1%
0.0%
1.2%
2.5%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: CBRE year-end data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast data,
year-end 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for
2012-14 was: 0.8%, 2.0%. 2.8%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Hotel Sector Fundamentals
Hotel occupancy rates, according to Smith Travel Research, have
improved from 54.6% in 2009 to 60.0% in 2011, and the ULI Forecast
projects that occupancy rates will increase to 61.6% by 2012, 62.6% by
2013, and 63.6% by 2014.
Hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) has also grown
substantially, with 8.2% growth in 2011, and growth is expected to
remain strong, with expected RevPAR growth of 8.0% in 2012, 6.3% in
2013, and 5.3% in 2014.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Hotel Occupancy Rates
54.6%
57.5%
60.0%
61.6%
62.6%
63.6%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: Smith Travel Research, annual data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast data,
year-end 2012-2014.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Hotel Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) Change
-16.7%
5.4%
8.2% 8.0%
6.3% 5.3%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: Smith Travel Research, annual data, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast,
year-end data, 2012-2014.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Housing Sector
Finally, the single-family housing sector is experiencing a turnaround in
2012 that is expected to continue. The ULI Consensus Forecast from
March projected a stabilizing housing market in 2012, and the most
recent numbers have been strong, leading forecasters to be even more
optimistic going forward.
Single-family housing starts, which have been near record lows over
the past three years, are expected to rise from 430,600 starts in 2011 to
530,000 in 2012, 675,000 in 2013, and 800,000 in 2014. The 2012 and
2013 forecasts are up from the March forecast, while the 2014 forecast
remains the same.
The average home price, which has declined somewhere between
1.4% and 3.9% over each of the past three years, according to the
FHFA, is expected to increase by 3.2% in 2012, 3.9% in 2013, and
5.0% in 2014; all of these are well above the previous ULI Forecast
from March.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Single-Family Housing Starts
445,100 471,200 430,600
530,000
675,000
800,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: U.S. Census, 2009-2011; ULI Consensus Forecast data, year-end
2012-2014. Note: The previous (March 2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14 was:
500,000, 660,000. 800,000.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
Average Home Price Change
-2.0%
-3.9%
-1.4%
3.2%
3.9%
5.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: Federal Housing Finance Agency, December year-over-year data, 2009-2011; ULI
Consensus Forecast, December year-over-year data, 2012-2014. Note: The previous (March
2012) ULI Forecast for 2012-14 was: 0.0%, 2.0%. 3.5%.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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Firms That Participated in the ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
Organization Economist/Analyst Title City/State
AEW Capital Management, L.P. Richard G. Brace, Jr. Director Chicago, IL
Alvarez & Marsal Steven Laposa Principal, Global Real Estate Knowledge Center Denver, CO
American Realty Advisors Lee Menifee Managing Director, Research and Strategy Los Angeles, CA
Chris Fruy Senior Manager of Market Research Los Angeles, CA
Avalon Bay Communities Craig Thomas Vice President, Market Research Washington, DC
Bailard Ronald Kaiser Director, Real Estate Research Foster City, CA
Bentall Kennedy Doug Poutasse Executive Vice President Boston, MA
BlackRock Kevin Scherer Managing Director New York, NY
Steve Cornet Director New York, NY
Cassidy Turley Kevin Thorpe Chief Economist Washington, DC
Elena Bondarenko Economist Washington, DC
CBRE Asieh Mansour Head of Americas Research San Francisco, CA
CBRE Econometric Advisors Jon Southard Managing Director Boston, MA
Clarion Partners Tim Wang Senior Vice President, Head of Investment Research New York, NY
Cole Real Estate Investments Kevin White Senior Vice President, Investment Strategy & Research Phoenix, AZ
Colliers KC Conway Executive Managing Director of Real Estate Analytics Atlanta, GA
Cornerstone Real Estate Advisers Michael Gately Managing Director - Research Hartford, CT
Jim Clayton Vice President - Research Hartford, CT
Dividend Capital Glenn R. Mueller PhD Real Estate Investment Strategist Denver, CO
Freddie Mac Frank Nothaft Vice President and Chief Economist McLean, VA
Hines Josh Scoville Senior Managing Director Boston, MA
International Council of Shopping Centers Michael P. Niemira Chief Economist & Director of Research New York, NY
Invesco Real Estate Nicholas Buss Director, Research Dallas, TX
LaSalle Investment Management William Maher Director, North American Strategy Baltimore, MD
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Firms That Participated in the ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
Organization Economist/Analyst Title City/State
MetLife Real Estate Investments Richie McLemore Director of Research Morristown, NJ
Moody’s Tad Philipp Director, Commercial Real Estate Research New York, NY
Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing Paul Mouchakkaa Global Head of Research and Strategy New York, NY
NAI Peter Linneman Global Chief Economist Philadelphia, PA
NAREIT Calvin Schnure Vice President, Research and Industry Information Washington, DC
National Association of Realtors Lawrence Yun Chief Economist Washington, DC
NCREIF Jeffrey Havsy Director of Research Chicago, IL
PPR CoStar Hans G. Nordby Managing Director Boston, MA
Shaw Lupton Senior Real Estate Economist Boston, MA
Principal Global Investors Andy Warren Managing Director, Research Des Moines, IA
Prudential Real Estate Investors Youguo Liang Managing Director, Investment Research Madison, NJ
RCLCO Gadi Kaufmann Managing Director and CEO Washington, DC
Real Capital Analytics Robert White President New York, NY
Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) Ken Riggs Chairman & President Chicago, IL
Regions Financial Corporation Richard Moody Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Birmingham, AL
Reis, Inc Victor Calanog Head of Economics & Research New York, NY
Rosen Consulting Group Kenneth T. Rosen Chairman Berkeley, CA
Randall Sakamoto Executive Vice President and Director of Research Berkeley, CA
RREEF Mark Roberts Global Head of Research New York, NY
Trepp LLC Matthew Anderson Managing Director New York, NY
Susan Persin Managing Director New York, NY
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Mark Vitner Managing Director and Senior Economist Charlotte, NC
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
The ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast is based on a survey of
leading real estate economists/analysts representing 39 leading real
estate investment, advisory, and research firms and organizations. The
current survey was conducted from August 21 to September 14, 2012 .
The semiannual survey provides forecasts for 26 economic and real
estate indicators, including GDP, employment, inflation, interest rates,
property transaction volumes, CMBS issuance, capitalization rates,
REIT returns, property investment returns for four property types,
vacancy/occupancy rates and rents for five property types, and housing
starts and prices. The forecast for each indicator is the median forecast
from the 39 survey respondents.
The next ULI Forecast is scheduled for release in March 2013.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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Urban Land Institute
About the Urban Land Institute
The Urban Land Institute is a nonprofit education and research institute supported by its
members. Its mission is to provide leadership in the responsible use of land and in
sustaining and creating thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute
has nearly 30,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
disciplines.
www.uli.org
About the ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate
The ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate is a ULI center that focuses on real
estate finance, real estate industry and investment trends, and the relationship between
the capital markets and real estate. The Center is engaged in a variety of projects
including the annual Emerging Trends in Real Estate® reports, the monthly ULI Real
Estate Business Barometer, the annual ULI Real Estate Capital Markets Conference, and
numerous other programs.
www.uli.org/capitalmarkets
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast
© September 2012 by the Urban Land Institute.
The views expressed in this document were obtained from survey
respondents, are a consensus view of the future, and do not
necessarily express the opinions of the Urban Land Institute. This
document is for general information purposes only, and should not be
used as a substitute for investor due diligence or in place of expert
advice.
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate
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ULI Real Estate Consensus
Forecast A Survey of Leading Real Estate Economists/Analysts
September 2012
Dean Schwanke
Executive Director
ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate
Urban Land Institute
ULI Center for Capital Markets
and Real Estate