UK’s 2050 Pathways Analysis and Impact on PolicyRobert T. Watson

Defra

24th April 2012

• 2050 Pathways Analysis in the UK

• How we used 2050 Pathways Analysis in Policy

• Next steps

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We first published the 2050 Calculator in July 2010. It provides a platform for an ‘energy literate debate’

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Excel SpreadsheetWeb ToolMy2050

• Technical expert stakeholders

• and policy-makers

• Technical expert stakeholders

• and well-informed public

• Educational tool • and initial

engagement for members of the public

Product

Audience

Complexity

2050 Analysis

We have since developed different formats of the Calculator - appropriate for different audiences

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The Calculator allows you to pick your own 2050 Pathway and compare it with those from others

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Over 20 000 people submitted their preferred My2050 worlds to DECC

My2050 has had over 100 000 unique users (Average engagement time is 15 minutes).

Next to the 2050 Pathways from HMG, Pathways from different organisations are published on the webtool , such as:o Friends of the Eartho Campaign to Protect Rural Englando National Grido Atkins o Journalists

DECC Blog discussion between experts and the public

Excel spreadsheet used in several academic and research studies to test different assumptions

• 2050 Pathways Analysis in the UK

• How we used 2050 Pathways Analysis in Policy

• Next steps

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Climate Change Act 2008 sets out a clear legal framework for emissions reductions in the UK

Ambitious targets to reduce emissions

Legally binding carbon budgets and 2050 target

A clear accountability framework MRV / CCC reports to Parliament

The Climate Change Act triggered a long term low carbon strategy; culminating in the Carbon Plan (December 2011)

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DECC’s strategy works to head off two risks:

• Catastrophic climate change

• Failure of secure, safe and affordable energy supplies for the UK

November 2009:Copenhagen

Before DECC Government’s approach was fragmented and didn’t sufficiently recognise the interdependencies between climate change and

energy policy

2008:Climate Change Act introduced legally binding carbon budgets and aim to reduce emissions by

80% by 2050

December 2010:Cancun

December 2011:Durban

Carbon Budgets ensure that the UK will reduce emissions by 34% by 2020 and 50% by Carbon Budget 4

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Using the 2050 Calculator, HMG published four ‘2050 Futures’ in the Carbon Plan

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The ‘2050 Futures’ give a range for each technology in 2050. The Carbon Plan sets out how HMG will deliver this range.

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Per capita UK energy demand has to be reduced by at least

a third.

Electricity demand will increase around 29% to 60%

At least 65% of UK cars need to be ultra-low emissions

vehicles in 2050

Bioenergy demand will at minimum threefold from

today, but could be much higher

For each sector the Carbon Plan sets out ambitions for deployment out to 2027 and the range to 2050.

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For some technologies it will be cost effective to ensure early deployment.

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The Carbon Plan emphasises the Government’s desire to build a coalition for change in order to drive the innovation we need to decarbonise

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Industry Government Public

Industry will need to develop innovative new business models and

technologies

Governments will support the transition by providing the right

frameworks for investment

The public will need to adopt the technologies and lifestyle choices to save money and carbon

• 2050 Pathways Analysis in the UK

• How we used 2050 Pathways Analysis in Policy

• Next steps

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Domestically we are looking at refining the Pathways analysis and using it for public engagement

Refining the 2050 Calculator:

• Call for Evidence on cost and air quality

• Update baseline from 2007 to 2010

• Historical data incorporated

Extending the outreach:

• Publish My2050 schools toolkit • My2050 simulation rolled out to schools and universities and public

opinion testing

• 2050 Picture competition with National Geographic for Kids

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Internationally we are beginning to look at outreach opportunities

Supporting other regions and countries in adopting the 2050 Calculator approach

We received interest from several partners, which are moving the open-sourced analysis forward:

• Walloon 2050 Pathways study with fully refined and improved Calculator. This will inform/influence a new project on Low Carbon Pathway analysis for the whole of Belgium.

• Chinese Government Energy Resource Institute adapting analysis for own purposes.

• Possible additional 2050 Calculator work in Bangladesh, New Zealand, others

Ideas to develop a global model

• Concept to develop a Global Energy and Emissions Calculator with international partners in private and public sectors

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THANK YOU!

www.decc.gov.uk/2050

http://my2050.decc.gov.uk/

Katherine.Randall@decc.gsi.gov.uk

ANNEX

The Calculator allows you to pick your own pathway – and the Carbon Plan provided some potential Government scenarios

Renewables; more efficient Nuclear; less efficient CCS; more bioenergy

Electricity

Buildings

16 GW nuclear82 GW wind13 GW CCS14 GW solar

10 GW marine24 GW back-up

gas

75 GW nuclear20 GW wind2 GW CCS

2 GW hydro11 GW back-up gas

20 GW nuclear34 GW wind40 GW CCS2 GW hydro

No back-up gas

Transport

Industry

Bioenergy and land

use

7.7m SWIs, 8.8m CWIs, 100% house-level

heating systems

5.6m SWIs, 6.9m CWIs, 90% house-

level heating systems, 10% network-level

5.6m SWIs, 6.9m CWIs, 50% house-

level heating systems, 50% network-level

100% ULEVs, high modal shift

80% ULEVs, 20% ICEs, low modal

shift

65% ULEVs, 35% ICEs,

medium modal shift

461 TWh of bioenergy, high

ambition on land mgmt

181 TWh of bioenergy, low

ambition on land mgmt

Medium growth, 48% of

emissions captured by CCS

Medium growth, 48% of

emissions captured by

CCS

Medium growth, 0% of emissions captured by CCS

471 TWh of bioenergy,

medium ambition on land mgmt

Cost Optimised

33 GW nuclear18 GW wind28 GW CCS27 GW other

renew33 GW gas

75% ULEVs, unclear on modal shift

Heating mix of heat pumps, resistive

heat, biomass pellets, district heat

Medium growth, over half of emissions

captured by CCS

~350 TWh of bioenergy, low

ambition on land mgmt