UK’s 2050 Pathways Analysis and Impact on Policy · •Catastrophic climate change •Failure of...
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UK’s 2050 Pathways Analysis and Impact on Policy Jan Ole Kiso Strategy Unit Department of Energy and Climate Change 28 th June 2012
Transcript of UK’s 2050 Pathways Analysis and Impact on Policy · •Catastrophic climate change •Failure of...
UK’s 2050 Pathways Analysis
and Impact on Policy
Jan Ole Kiso
Strategy Unit
Department of Energy and Climate Change
28th June 2012
• 2050 Pathways Analysis in the UK
• How we used 2050 Pathways Analysis in Policy
• Next steps
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We first published the 2050 Calculator
in July 2010. It provides a platform for
an ‘energy literate debate’
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Excel Spreadsheet Web Tool My2050
• Technical expert
stakeholders
• and policy-makers
• Technical expert
stakeholders
• and well-informed
public
• Educational tool
• and initial
engagement for
members of the
public
Product
Audience
Complexity
2050 Analysis
We have since developed different
formats of the Calculator - appropriate
for different audiences
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The Calculator allows you to pick your own
2050 Pathway and compare it with those
from others
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Over 20 000 people submitted their preferred My2050 worlds to DECC
My2050 has had over 100 000 unique users (Average engagement time
is 15 minutes).
Next to the 2050 Pathways from HMG, Pathways from different
organisations are published on the webtool , such as:
o Friends of the Earth
o Campaign to Protect Rural England
o National Grid
o Atkins
o Journalists
DECC Blog discussion between experts and the public
Excel spreadsheet used in several academic and research studies to
test different assumptions
• 2050 Pathways Analysis in the UK
• How we used 2050 Pathways Analysis in Policy
• Next steps
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Climate Change Act 2008 sets out a
clear legal framework for emissions
reductions in the UK
Ambitious targets to reduce emissions
Legally binding carbon budgets and
2050 target
A clear accountability framework
MRV / CCC reports to Parliament
The Climate Change Act triggered a long term
low carbon strategy; culminating in the
Carbon Plan (December 2011)
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October 2008:
DECC created
July 2009:
Low Carbon Transition Plan;
1st, 2nd and 3rd Carbon Budgets set
May 2010:
General election
PM announces intention to be ‘Greenest Government ever’
2011:
Green Deal announced;
Reform or electricity generation market
December 2011:
Carbon Plan;
4th Carbon Budget set; 2050 Futures published
DECC’s strategy works to head off two risks:
• Catastrophic climate change
• Failure of secure, safe and affordable energy
supplies for the UK
November 2009:
Copenhagen
Before DECC Government’s approach was
fragmented and didn’t sufficiently recognise the
interdependencies between climate change and
energy policy
2008:
Climate Change Act introduced
legally binding carbon budgets
and aim to reduce emissions by
80% by 2050
December 2010:
Cancun
December 2011:
Durban
Carbon Budgets ensure that the UK will
reduce emissions by 34% by 2020 and 50%
by Carbon Budget 4
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Using the 2050 Calculator, HMG published
four ‘2050 Futures’ in the Carbon Plan
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The ‘2050 Futures’ give a range for each
technology in 2050. The Carbon Plan sets
out how HMG will deliver this range.
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Per capita UK energy demand
has to be reduced by at least a
third.
Electricity demand will increase
around 29% to 60%
At least 65% of UK cars need to
be ultra-low emissions vehicles
in 2050
Bioenergy demand will at
minimum threefold from today,
but could be much higher
For each sector the Carbon Plan sets out
ambitions for deployment out to 2027 and the
range to 2050.
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For some technologies it will be cost
effective to ensure early deployment.
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The Carbon Plan emphasises the Government’s
desire to build a coalition for change in order to
drive the innovation we need to decarbonise
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Industry Government Public
Industry will need to
develop innovative new
business models and
technologies
Governments will
support the transition
by providing the right
frameworks for
investment
The public will need to
adopt the technologies
and lifestyle choices to
save money and carbon
• 2050 Pathways Analysis in the UK
• How we used 2050 Pathways Analysis in Policy
• Next steps
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Domestically we are looking at refining the
Pathways analysis and using it for public
engagement
Refining the 2050 Calculator:
• Call for Evidence on cost and air quality
• Update baseline from 2007 to 2010
• Historical data incorporated
Extending the outreach:
• Publish My2050 schools toolkit
• My2050 simulation rolled out to schools and universities and public
opinion testing
• 2050 Picture competition with National Geographic for Kids
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Internationally we are beginning to look
at outreach opportunities
Supporting other regions and countries in adopting the 2050 Calculator approach
We received interest from several partners, which are moving the open-sourced
analysis forward:
• Walloon 2050 Pathways study with fully refined and improved Calculator. This will
inform/influence a new project on Low Carbon Pathway analysis for the whole of
Belgium.
• Chinese Government Energy Resource Institute adapting analysis for own
purposes.
• Possible additional 2050 Calculator work in Bangladesh, South Africa, others
Ideas to develop a global model
• Concept to develop a Global Energy and Emissions Calculator with
international partners in private and public sectors
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ANNEX
The Calculator allows you to pick your own
pathway – and the Carbon Plan provided
some potential Government scenarios
Renewables; more efficient Nuclear; less efficient CCS; more bioenergy
Electricity
Buildings
16 GW nuclear
82 GW wind
13 GW CCS
14 GW solar
10 GW marine
24 GW back-up
gas
75 GW nuclear
20 GW wind
2 GW CCS
2 GW hydro
11 GW back-up gas
20 GW nuclear
34 GW wind
40 GW CCS
2 GW hydro
No back-up gas
Transport
Industry
Bioenergy
and land
use
7.7m SWIs, 8.8m
CWIs, 100%
house-level
heating systems
5.6m SWIs, 6.9m
CWIs, 90% house-
level heating
systems, 10%
network-level
5.6m SWIs, 6.9m
CWIs, 50% house-
level heating
systems, 50%
network-level
100% ULEVs,
high modal shift
80% ULEVs, 20%
ICEs, low modal
shift
65% ULEVs,
35% ICEs,
medium modal
shift
461 TWh of
bioenergy, high
ambition on land
mgmt
181 TWh of
bioenergy, low
ambition on land
mgmt
Medium growth,
48% of emissions
captured by CCS
Medium
growth, 48% of
emissions
captured by
CCS
Medium growth,
0% of emissions
captured by CCS
471 TWh of
bioenergy,
medium ambition
on land mgmt
Cost Optimised
33 GW nuclear
18 GW wind
28 GW CCS
27 GW other
renew
33 GW gas
75% ULEVs,
unclear on
modal shift
Heating mix of heat
pumps, resistive
heat, biomass
pellets, district heat
Medium growth,
over half of
emissions
captured by CCS
~350 TWh of
bioenergy, low
ambition on land
mgmt
