UK REAL ESTATE MARKET - cassrec.org€¦ · BNP Paribas Real Estate at bottom of the market 2012...
Transcript of UK REAL ESTATE MARKET - cassrec.org€¦ · BNP Paribas Real Estate at bottom of the market 2012...
1 June 2017
UK REAL ESTATE MARKET
JOHN SLADE
Agenda
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A CHANGING WORLD…
MY CAREER
ECONOMIC CHALLENGES
LONDON’S BOUNCEBACKABILITY
BNPPRE IS CHANGING
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CHANGE
1. A Changing World…
1. A Changing World – do we still expect the unexpected?
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2016 was the year of the low probability event!
UK voted to leave the EU
after historic referendum
Trump defies odds to become
45th US President
Emmanuel Macron
Theresa May
Mark Rutte
1. A Changing World – Risk Index
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But what comes next? There are many risks …
Article 50 Dutch Election French Election German Election UK Election
Trump –
trade wars/
real wars
Middle East More severe
downturn in
Chinese economy
Terrorism Theresa May –
UK election
2. My Career
2. My Career
Management
Agency/investment
broker (including
CBRE and DTZ)
Owned my own
property company
Today I am CEO of
the real estate
adviser for a
changing world
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. Economic Challenges
3. Economic Challenges
80’s - 90’s
Oversupply, weak economy
2007
Global Financial Crisis,
Banking led
2016
Political, Brexit
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4. London’s Bouncebackability
4. London’s Strength & Bouncebackability I went on holiday in 2009 for end of August/beginning of September. When I came back the market had
moved by 150 bps.
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4. London’s Strength & Bouncebackability We learned through our Cycology report that London will continue to provide resilience and opportunity
because of its bouncebackability
• London ranks no 1 in PwC Cities of Opportunity Index –
benchmarking study of 30 leading business centres globally. Study
Sept 2016
• It measures cities performance against 10 indicators including
transportation and infrastructure, ease of doing business,
demographics and liveability, technology readiness and cost.
• Singapore 2nd, Toronto 3rd
…DESPITE EVERYTHING THAT I SAID
ABOUT CAUTION THROUGH BREXIT,
LONDON HAS MANY, MANY OTHER
ATTRIBUTES THAT WILL MAKE IT A VERY
SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENT LOCATION
…ALL ARE MADE PRETTY WELCOME
HERE, I THINK IT’S A GREAT
CULTURE, LONDON IT’S A GREAT
PLACE FOR PEOPLE TO BE AND THEY
WANT OT BE HERE, IT’S WHERE THE
TALENT IS..
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Infrastructure + Urbanisation = SMART LONDON
4. London’s Strength & Bouncebackability
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4. London’s strength & bouncebackability
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TALENT: London’s employment base in London is more diverse than ever
Source: Experian / ONS
FINANCE VS MEDIATECH HEADCOUNT Article 50 = speculation jobs will decrease
Finance decrease, MediaTech increase
4. London’s Strength & Bouncebackability Post referendum deals
Largest office deal of 2016 –
Government Property Unit
took 540,000 sq ft at 20
Cabot Square
7&8 St James’s Square
£245m, Private Asian
Elizabeth House, Waterloo
£250m, Private European
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5. Take Advantage Of Change
5. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CHANGE
Adaptable
Forecasting
Trends
Disjoint between investment & occupier – occupier
market goes first so watch for signs
Economics & fundamentals
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6. BNPPRE Is Changing
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6. BNPPRE IS CHANGING 2009
Atisreal rebrands to
BNP Paribas Real
Estate at bottom of the
market
2012
• John Slade joins as CEO and
promises growth
• BNPPRE UK launches
property development
business in the UK
2013
BNPPRE recruits 50
directors in 12 months
and sets up a powerful
investment business
2014
BNPPRE recruits another 50 directors
across retail, agency, investment and
regions
BNPPRE launches its first UK
development scheme at King’s Cross
2015
In 3 years, BNPPRE’s UK
turnover up 40% and profit
up 200%
BNPPRE announces it will
develop residential in the
UK
2016
• BNPPRE launches
international retail, logistics
and occupier (GCS)
businesses in London
2017
• Post EU Referendum,
BNPPRE has its best
ever start to the year with
£1bn under offer by end
Feb
What Will
Happen Next?
1 June 2017
UK REAL ESTATE MARKET
JOHN SLADE