UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile....
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• UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile. • Statistical method (May SST) forecast NAO+ • Dynamical method (GloSea4) forecast strong NAO-, but warmer than average UK temperature. Met Office Seasonal Forecasts for winter 2009/10 Plots from UK Met Office and NOAA ESRL Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion 14 April 2010
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Transcript of UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile....
• UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile.
• Statistical method (May SST) forecast NAO+
• Dynamical method (GloSea4) forecast strong NAO-, but warmer than average UK temperature.
Met Office Seasonal Forecasts for winter 2009/10
Plots from UK Met Office and NOAA ESRL
Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion 14 April 2010
Met Office NAO Statistical Forecast
Rodwell and Folland (2002)
Rodwell and Folland (2002)
Met Office NAO Statistical Forecast
Did the Spring SST anomalies re-emerge in Autumn?
yes and no.…
November 2009
Dynamical DJF Forecast versus NCEP reanalysis
Z500
NCEP Reanalysis
Forecast for JFM
NCEP Reanalysis
Dynamical DJF Forecast versus NCEP reanalysis
PMSL
Forecast for JFM
NCEP Reanalysis
Dynamical DJF Forecast versus NCEP reanalysis
T2M
Forecast for JFM
• UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile.
• Dynamical method (GloSea4) forecast strong NAO-, but warmer than average UK temperature
• Why?
Forecast pattern did not extend east into Europe
Old climatology: no account of warming trend?
Met Office Seasonal Forecast
Lagged impacts in 2010?
• Arctic sea-ice
Lagged impacts in 2010?
NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
• Eurasian snow cover
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