UK Market Update - forburyinvest.com (2).pdf · Excellence in Market Intelligence 2 BSRIA: Overview...

UK Market

Update

By Abdel Eljidi

June 2011

2Excellence in Market Intelligence

BSRIA: Overview

• A research and technical organisation

• Member association , over 50 years experience, support industry through

advice, testing, instruments, research and guidance to promote

energy/water efficiency, best practice in construction and effective

operation of buildings

• Independent, objective and practical help in design, construction and

occupancy of the built environment

• Turnover approx. £12 million, 160 employees, (2008/9)


BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence

•Turnover £2.9 million in 2009/10

(50% multi-client - 50% private client & management consultancy

•Research across 94 countries

•30 permanent multi-lingual staff

•Offices in China, France, Spain, & Germany

•New office in North America (2010)

•Partners & associates in other countries

http://intranet/images/index.asp?action=p&id=18082

http://www.bsria.co.uk/images/original/wmi-chilled-ceilings.jpg


BSRIA Regular Multi-Client Studies


EU Legislation Timeline


Changes in the Built Environment


Energy Market

7

• Gas is the main fuel for electricity generation

• Gasification accounts for over 90%

• Energy is the most deregulated market in Europe

Source: DECC


Energy Prices

Evolution of domestic energy prices in € per kWh, between 2000 and

2009

NB. Average prices excluding taxes

Source : Eurostat


Diversified Market


Emerging Opportunities for All


Market at Cross Roads


From Incentives to Legislation

… prove it!

• Switch to condensing boilers has been swift

• Incentives favour solar PV

• Renewable Heat Incentive – a catalyst for growth?


Phase 1: Invasion of Heat Pumps from

Asia Pacific

13

partner

CO2 heat

pump

launched in

Japan

dfe 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008 2009 2010

European

monobloc

Switzerland,

Sweden

and France

Estia, France

unit

2006 2007

Ecodan

2005

CO2 unit in

Sweden

acquire

split unit with

own hydrabox

external unit

?

Altherma

Aquafree

dfe 2009/10

– 10

2012 2015 2017 20202019

Com. launch

of FC (Japan)

Resid. Gas

Heat Pumps

Intro. of Fuel

Cell

in Europe

Smart

Meters

Energy

Storage

Systems

Smart Grid+ Energy

Homes

HEMS

Micro-CHP

expansion

Micro-CHP

ICE/ Stirling

Phase 2: Arrival of Gas Heat Pumps from Asia Pacific


Growing Presence of

Asian companies

14


UK: Open Market

15

http://www.mhsboilers.com/site/1/1.html

/


UK System evolution projectionsHigh rise buildings - Existing housing stock

2010

(2.8 million dwellings)

2020

(3.1 million dwellings)

Individual / Communal heating systems

Market penetration:

Individual combi boiler

92%

B

B

Individual combi

boiler6% 2%

Base scenario

RHI introduced in 09.2011

and reduced in 2014

Zero Carbon building 2018

Exis

tin

g

ho

usin

g

sto

ck

Central boiler + HP +

storage cylinder(s)

Central boiler + central

ST + storage cylinder(s)

HP CYLB

Central gas + CHP boiler

+ Heat Interface Units

BHIU

CHP ST BCYL

3%

78% 11%

Others

165,480 units sold

232,750 units sold


The UK HVAC Market

• The boiler market is the largest in Europe by value, with 1.6 million units

sold in 2010, around £1billion or over €1.1 billion value

• Air conditioning around £400 million (€450 million)

• Share of renewable (solar thermal and heat pumps is around £87 or

€100million


Boilers by Type, 2010

• Wall hung boilers dominate the market

• Sales of oil boilers very small

• Combi boilers account for bout 74%


The UK Heat Pump Market

• Rapid growth of air to water in 2009 and 2010


Market Trends

Domestic Boilers, 2005-2010• Market recovered in 2010 but still below 2007

• Non-condensing boilers almost disappeared


Market Trends

Water Heaters, 2005-2010• Sales of indirect cylinders in declined for 3 years


Market Trends

Solar Thermal, 2005-2010• Steady growth but likely to decline due to popularity of PV


Market Trends

Heat Pumps, 2005-2010• Steady growth likely to continue


Residential Heating Markets,

Europe, 2007-2011 (I)


European Solar

Thermal Market 2008 - 2010

1250

483

191

359304 286

176 168

45

1550

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

• Germany: largest market ~ incentive driven

• UK: amongst top 10 solar thermal market ~limited growth

due to PV boom from 2010

‘000 m2

Europe 2008: total 5.4 million m2

Europe 2009: 4.8 million m2 (-11%)

Europe 2010 forecast: +0.1%


Key Heat Pump Markets

Trends, 2004-2009

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Austria France Germany Sweden Switzerland UK

Un

its

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009


Micro CHP Market

• Currently: ICE units (SenerTec, Vaillant Ecopower)

• Introduction of Stirling Engine in the market in 2009/10

(Ecogen from Baxi, eVita from Remeha, Whispergen from)

WhisperTech)

• 2011: Stirling units planned by Bosch, Ariston Thermo Group,

Viessmann

• Field Trial: Organic Rankin cycle units (Energetix),

commercialisation in 2011

• Most developed markets: Japan – leading; Netherlands,

Germany, UK early stage

Stirling engines

Organic rankine cycle

engine

Internal combustion engine

7000

235600

0

750

1500

2250

3000

3750

4500

5250

6000

6750

7500

2009

2010

2011

http://www.energetixgroup.com/default.asp?id=1


Heating Markets

Gas Heat Pumps

• Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps currently offered by Robur

and Vaillant in Europe.

• Sales in Italy, Germany, Netherlands, UK and Poland, mostly

for commercial applications

• Since 2010 residential sector is targeted with the introduction

of Vaillant’s Zeolite heat pump in Germany

• Bosch, Viessmann and Robur are in process of developing

their own gas ab/adsorption heat pumps suitable for residential

applications.

Robur gas absorption heat pump

Zeolite gas heat pump

from Vaillant

(10kW thermal capacity)

(35.2kW thermal capacity)

150

370

1000

2400

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

2009 2010 2011


Japan: Largest FC Market

Driven by gas distributors


Europe PV Market Booming


Market comparison

UK, France, Germany, 2010


2020 Vision

Future

products/

technologies

H2 Fuel Cells

H2 Infrastructure………….

H2 time age……………………………..

Smart-Grids

Micro Generation Networks

Plus Energy Houses

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

33

Excellence in Market Intelligence 33

Smart Home / Home Automation

Environmental

control

Smart

appliances

Consumer

entertainment

Lighting

control

Building

component

control

Security

system

Safety

alarm

Individual System Control Level

HEMS Smart

Meter

Smart Home


Smart Home Tools

The architecture of latest Smart Home System

User

Inte

rfa

ce

Ac

tua

to

r

Sen

so

rS

ys

tem

co

ntr

oll

er

Ce

ntr

al

co

ntr

oll

er

KeypadTouch Panel Push Button

Some system may not require any

central controller. E.g. KNX

Mobile

phone/PDA

Web Control

Thermostat Light control Security control

Switch / Relays

Light sensor Motion sensor Smoke detector

Door / Window

ActuatorBlinds Motor

Shade control Meters

Remote controller

http://www.gira.de/produkte/jalousiesteuerung.html


Many New Entrants

Generation Transmission SubstationsDistribution Consumption

Services

http://www.cpowered.com/index.php

http://www.verisae.com/page/1/home.jsp

http://www.ibm.com/uk/en/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EnerNOC_Logo.png

http://www.comverge.com/

http://www.cpowered.com/index.php

http://www.verisae.com/page/1/home.jsp

http://www.pge.com/

http://www.google.com/powermeter/about/index.html

http://www.intel.com/index.htm

http://www.att.com/

http://www22.verizon.com/

http://www.trilliantinc.com/

http://www.landisgyr.com/en/pub/home.cfm

http://www.ge.com/index.html

http://www.microsoft.com/

https://www.itron.com/

http://www.echelon.com/

https://www.itron.com/


Overview of Smart Grid across EU

investment and implementation3 projects not included in

this graph

: Kriegers Flak project, a

Super Grid between

Germany and Denmark,

(investment of €507 M

UK: Smart Meter Roll-

out & AMI, estimated

investment of €11,897M;

Sweden: Smart Meter

Roll-out i~ in approx.

150 projects (total

investment of

approx.€1,500 M)

Source: JRC, IE


Gas Smart MeterElectricity Smart Meter

In-house Display

• Gas meter measures the volume of gas that passes through it and convert this reading into an energy value. The meter

can be ultrasonic or diaphragm.

• Electricity meter supports both import and export measurement, which enables them to support Feed in Tariffs. The

meter uses 4 quadrant measurement. Configurable alerts can be used to support DNO requirements for smart grid

developments.

• The IHD installed by British Gas (EcoMeter by Landis+Gyr) shows customers their current and previous energy

consumption, estimated energy bills, additional information on PAYG, the status of interrupted devices, and outstanding

debt (if any). If the electricity meter is exporting energy, the carbon emissions for the property are also displayed.

Source: British GasSource: British Gas Source: British Gas

System Specification:

Current Devices in UK


Penetration of Smart Meters in the

Residential Market


Market Size of Smart Home Market


Market Size of Home Energy

Management Market


Thank you very much!Contact:

Mr. Abdel Eljidi

T: +44 1344-465-645

Email: [email protected]

www.bsria.co.uk

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.bsria.co.uk/

UK Market Update - forburyinvest.com (2).pdf · Excellence in Market Intelligence 2 BSRIA: Overview...

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