Uk Energy Scenarios_2006

8/7/2019 Uk Energy Scenarios_2006

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Society Energy Environment SEE 1

UK ENERGY SCENARIOS

crossing the fossil and nuclear bridge to

a safe, sustainable, economically viable energy future

Preliminary scenarios

for discussion and development only

Mark Barrett

[email protected]

Complex Built Environment Systems

University College London


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Society Energy Environment SEE

Scenario development process

Introduction

Models used

Demand drivers

End use sectors

Supply sectors

Discussion

energy

emissions

economics

System dynamics and spatial issues

More international aspects

Energy security

Please note that some of the slides are

animated (they have animated in the

title). View these slides for a few

moments and the animation should

start and keep looping back to the

beginning.


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Introduction 1

This outline of UK energy and environment scenarios has been developed with the intention of identifying themain problems the UK will face in meeting future energy needs and environmental objectives, and todescribe possible policy options for resolving these problems. The approach here is to assume policyoptions and estimate the energy, emission and microeconomic impacts of these policy options. It is not

claimed that the scenarios are optimum in that more robust and cost-effective solutions may be found.The aim is to illustrate a development path that is incremental, flexible, and secure, with no unduereliance on fuels or technologies having substantial risks.

The aims are to identify energy and environment strategies that: enhance the security of UK energy services by reducing imported fuel dependence and technology risk

meet energy needs with safe, sustainable energy systems

limit environmental impact, with an emphasis here on:

the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide,

atmospheric pollutants; sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and carbon monoxide

are technically feasible and economically viable

give a practical development path leading from finite fuels to renewable energy

A broader aim is to consider temporal and spatial aspects of energy demand and supply, within the UK and atthe international scale, to ensure technical feasibility and take account of the international context


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Introduction 2

The scenarios are designed to be practical, feasible, but are not necessarily best. It is not possible toobjectively define the best scenario because:

although there is some agreement about goals concerning the environment, consumption, technologyrisk and irreversibility, market cost, subsidies, etc., the weights attached to these goals are subjectiveand differ between individuals and groups

there are aspects which it will never be possible to accurately quantify, such as: what is the probability ofan accident or terrorist attack on current or future nuclear facilities, and what would be its impact on theUK, even if radioactive release were negligible?

the future evolution of technologies in the long term is uncertain; half a century ago, the UK hadnegligible nuclear power or natural gas supply.

Some observations:

Developments of social structure, attitudes, demand, supply, technology, etc. are all, to some extent,determined by national policies.

Planning UK energy futures can not be done in isolation from Europe and the rest of the world, becauseof global energy resources, energy trade, and international politics.

As yet there are no supply options which score highest on all criteria and therefore these must balanced

according to present knowledge. The further into the future, the greater the uncertainties with respect todemand, technology development, and the international context. As solar electricity (e.g. photovoltaic),electricity storage and long distance transmission become cheaper, then there may be agreement thatother options are inferior and the energy problem will perhaps be solved..

No consideration is made here of how policy options would be implemented with statutory, fiscal or otherinstruments. A presumption is made that these would be developed and applied as necessary to securethe UKs future energy services and economy, and to protect the environment.


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Policy options

The policy aims are to be met using five classes of option:

Behavioural change: demand, and choice and use of technologies

demand substitution, less air travel

modal shift from car and truck to bus and rail, lower motorway speeds, building temperatures

smaller cars

Demand management insulation, ventilation control, recycling, efficient appliances...

Energy efficient conversion

cogeneration...

Fuel switching

to low/zero emission renewable and other sources

Emission control technologies

flue gas desulphurisation, catalytic converters, particulate traps...


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Policy options

In the scenarios, technologies are excluded according to criteria of irreversibility, exposure to risk of large scalehazards, the lack of clear market costs, or if they do not work. Accordingly:

new nuclear capacity is excluded because of irreversibility, lack of market cost because of insurance, and risk of

large scale hazard.

carbon sequestration through pumping CO2 underground is not deployed because it an irreversible techniquethat increases primary CO2 emissions, and the risks of accidental release in the long term are impossible to

quantify reliably. It also may be argued that sequestration will diminish efforts towards energy efficiency and

renewables. fusion is excluded because it does not work and would produce radioactive wastes.

The challenge is to construct scenarios that do not use these options.

Currently, hydrogen is not included in any scenario. This is primarily because of the low overall efficiency ofproducing hydrogen from electricity or gas and then converting it into motive power or heat: it wastes moreprimary fossil or renewable energy than using electricity as a vector. In the stationary sectors, it is better to use

electricity, renewable and fossil fuels directly. In surface transport vehicles, an increasing fraction of demandcan be met with electricity in hybrid electric/fossil fuelled vehicles. Hydrogen as a fuel for aircraft is a distantprospect. If the production and utilisation efficiency of hydrogen improve, or other difficulties, such as electricvehicle refuelling are insurmountable, then hydrogen would be reviewed.


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Scenarios

With these classes of options and exceptions, the aim is to show that commonly agreed social, environmentaland economic objectives can be achieved with low risk.

Five scenarios combining the five classes of policy option in different ways have been simulated. Proceedingfrom scenario 1 to 5 results in decreased emissions and use of technologies or fuels that haveirreversible impacts.

1. Base/Kyoto: base scenario2. Carbon15: medium levels of technical change

3. Behaviour: behavioural change only

4. Tech High: high levels of technical change

5. Tech Beh: technical and behavioural change

The scenarios presented here are preliminary and for discussion because:

recent historic data were not available at the time of scenario development

many technical and economic aspects of the scenarios need a thorough review


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Integrated planning

Energy planning should be integrated across all segments of demand and supply. If this is not done, the

system may be technically dysfunctional or economically suboptimal. Energy supply requirements aredependent on the sizes and variations in demands, and this depends on future social patterns anddemand management. For example:

In 2040, what will electricity demand be at 4 am? If it is small, how will it affect the economics of supplyoptions with large inflexible units, such as nuclear power?

The output from CHP plants depends on how much heat they provide, so the contribution of micro-CHPin houses to electricity supply depends on the levels of insulation in dwellings.

Solar collection systems produce most energy at noon, and in the summer. The greater the capacity ofthese systems, the greater the need for flexible back-up supplies and storage for when solar input is

low.

The scope for electric vehicles depends on demand details such as average trip length. Electric vehicleswill add to electricity demand, but they reduce the need for scarce liquid fuels and add to electricitystorage capacity which aids renewable integration.

Electricity supply systems with a large renewable component require flexible demand management,storage, electricity trade and back-up generation; large coal or nuclear stations do not fit well into suchsystems because their output cannot easily be varied over short time periods.

The amount of liquid biofuels that might available for air transport depends on how much biomass can

be supplied, and demands on it for other uses, such as road transport. Is it better to burn biomass in CHP plants and produce electricity for electric vehicles, or inefficiently

convert it to biofuels for use in conventional engines?


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Models used for constructing scenarios

Some description and sample outputs are presented for the following models:

SEEScen: Society, Energy and Environment Scenario model used for basic national energy scenariosacross all sectors

EleServe : Electricity system model used to study detailed operation of electricity system

EST Energy Space Time model used to illustrate issues concerning time varying demands and renewablesources at geographically distant locations

InterEnergy Energy trade model used to study potential for international exchanges of energy to reducecosts and facilitate the integration of renewable energy

More on the models may be found at:

http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Energy/Energy.htm


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Technical basis: SEEScen: Society, Energy, Environment Scenario model

SEEScen is applicable to any largecountry having IEA energystatistics

SEEScen calculates energy flows inthe demand and supply sectors,and the microeconomic costs ofdemand management and energyconversion technologies andfuels

SEEScen is a national energy modelthat does not address detailedissues in any demand or supplysector.

Method

Simulates system over years, orhours given assumptions about

the four classes of policy option

Optimisation under development

HISTORY

FUTURE

COSTS

INPUTS /ASSUMPTIONS

IMPACTSENERGY

IEA dataEnergyPopulation, GDPOther dataClimate, insulation...

Delivered fuel

End use fuel mix

End use efficiency

Delivered fuel byend use

Useful energy

SocioeconomicUseful energy

Delivered energy

Lifestyle changeDemand

End use fuel mix

End use efficiency

Conversion

Primary energy

Supply efficiency

EmissionsCapitalRunning Distribution losses

Supply mix

Trade

Conversion


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Energy services and demand drivers

Demands for energy services are determined by humanneeds, these include

food comfort, hygiene, health

culture

Important drivers of demand include:

Population increases

Households increase faster because of smallerhouseholds

Wealth, but energy consumption and impacts

depend on choices of expenditure on goods andservices which are somewhat arbitrary

The drivers are assumed to be the same in all scenarios.

The above drivers are simply accounted for in the model,but others are not, for example:

Population ageing, which will result in increases anddecreases of different demands

Changes in employment Environmental awareness

Economic restructuring

More on consumption at:

http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Consumption/Consumption.htm

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SHHPop_M

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Energy demand: food

Food consumption increases with population. Therefore:

More biowaste for energy supply

Less land for energy crops, depending on import fraction

Land and energy use for food depends on food trade and factors such as the fraction of meat in the diet

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Future demand: general considerations

Predicting the activities that drive the demands for energy is fundamentally important, but uncertain, not least

because activities are partially subject to policy.

Some demands may stabilise or decrease, for example:

commuting travel as the population ages and telecommunications develop

space heating as maximum comfort temperature levels are achieved

Demands may increase because of the extension of current activities:

heating might extend to conservatories, patios, swimming pools

air conditioning may become more widespread

cars might become heavier and more powerful

as the population enjoys more wealth and a longer retirement, more leisure travel might ensue

Or because new activities are invented, these being difficult to predict:

new ways of using energy might arise; witness home computers, cinemas, mass air travel in the past; thefuture we may see space tourism

Basic activity levels are assumed to be the same in all scenarios, although in reality they are scenario dependent.For example, many activities are influenced by scenario dependent fuel prices - the purchase and use of cars,air travel, home heating.

Furthermore, energy consumption in the services sector and industrial sectors are themselves dependent on basicenergy service demands. For example: energy consumption for administering public transport or aviation isdependent on the demands for those services; the energy consumed in the iron and steel or vehiclemanufacturing industry depends on how many cars are made, which is scenario dependent; the energyconsumption of manufacturing industry depends on how much loft insulation there is houses. The effects ofenergy demands on economic structure and its energy consumption are not considered here. (This is rarelyanalysed in energy scenarios because the effects of these structural changes may be relatively small; and it isdifficult to calculate them.)


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Future demand: activity projections

In these scenarios, the activity growth in all sectors is assumed to follow from population, household and wealth

drivers. The activity projections are shown in the chart. The outstanding growth is in international aviation, a

service the UK mainly exports.

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Indx1990

Ind:Iron and s teel

Ind:Chem/petrochem(inc feed)

Ind:Heavy

Ind:Light

Agr:

Oth:

Ser:

Res:

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Tra:Nat freight

Tra:Int pass enger

Tra:Int freight

B

:

chBh:

ctivity


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Domestic sector

The main options exercised:

Clothing, heating system control and thermostat setting

High levels of insulation and ventilation control

Efficient lights and appliances

Solar water heating, micro gas CHP and electric heat pumps are the main supply options

Zoned heating and clothing to reduce average house temperature

Note that solar electricity production (e.g photovoltaic) is included under central supply, even though much of it

would be installed at end users premises.


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Comfort temperature, clothing and activity

Appropriate clothing reduces energy demand and emissions. A slight improvement in clothing could reducebuilding temperatures. A degree reduction in average building temperature could reduce space heating

needs by about 10%.

Acti it & Metab licRate (W/ 2)

5

10

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25

30

0.0 Nake

.3 i t

.5 i t

.8 ical

1. ical

1.3 Wa

1.5 Wa

1.8 ecial

2. ecial

Cl t i le el


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Building use

Better control heating systems in terms of time control and zoning of heating can reduce average internal

temperature and energy use.

3

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13

18

23

28

A b. e

t : itti

t :Kitc e

t :Be s

: itti

:Kitc e

:Be s


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Domestic sector: house heat loss factors

Implementation of space heat demand management (insulation, ventilation control) depends on housing needs

and stock types, replacement rates, and applicability of technologies. Insulation of the building envelopeand ventilation control can reduce house heat losses to minimal levels.

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W/oC

Ve

ss

!

"

#

$

% w

#

a &

aque

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GBR: c Beh: W/oC : lements


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House: monthly space heating and cooling loads

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oC

Gross

Incidental gain

Solar

Heat

Cool

Ambient temperature

Equilibrium temperature, no

heating/coolingThermostat temperature

United Kingdo m 2005 : TechLifesty le Scenario : Hous e

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

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oC

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Solar

Heat

Cool

Ambient temperature

Equilibrium temperature, no

heating/cooling

Thermos tat temperature

United Kingdom 2050 : TechLifestyle Scenario : Hous e

Energy conservation

technologies have

these effects:

Space heatingdemand is greatlyreduced byinsulation and othermeasures

The potentialgrowth in airconditioningdepends ondetailed housedesign andtemperature control

There is less

seasonal variationin total heatdemand


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Domestic sector: useful energy services per household

Space heating reduced, but not comfort

Other demands eventually grow because of basic drivers

Water heating becomes a large fraction of total, demand management requires further analysis

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C' ' (

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ace AC

S) ace H

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6

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GBR: echBeh: Res e t : seful


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Domestic sector: electricity use

Electricity demand is reduced because of more efficient appliances, including heat pumps for space heating.

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Ai on_

t _

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End use sectors: energy delivered to services sector

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H_S8 9

ar

H_@ A B e

E_

S_CH@

L_CH@

C_CH@

S_

L_

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GBR: echBeh: ervices : fuel b sector

More commentary to follow.


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End use sectors: energy delivered to industry sector

More commentary to follow.

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Transport

Options exercised:

Demand management, especially in aviation sector

Reduction in car power and top speed

Increase in vehicle efficiency

light, low drag body

improved motor efficiency

Implentation of speed limits

Shift to modes that use less energy per passenger or freight carried:

passengers from car to bus and train freight from truck to train and ship

Increased load factor in the aviation sector

Some penetration of vehicles using alternative fuels:

electricity for car and vans

biofuels principally for longer haul trucks and aircraft


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Passenger transport: carbon emission by purpose

U

V

ucationW

X

Y opping

a b X

c eV

ical (pers)

a X

dt

er personal

e X

U at/V

rinkW

X

To frienV

s

a e X

Y

ocialW

X

U

ntertainf

X

Yport (

V

o)W

X

gol i

V

ayf

X

h ay tripf

X

dt

er

b X

Uscort

6X

Ca b e issib se

k30%

I k13%

Commuting and travel in work account for

40-50% of emissions


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Passenger transport: carbon emission purpose and by trip

length

Stage ength (km)

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I w k

a w k

Carb nd o deem ss on (MtC)

% t w k

C mu ative pr portion

% N w k% i w k


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Passenger transport use by mode trip length

Sta i e p e q i t r (ks )

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5

1 0

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2 0

2 5

0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 3 5 0 4 0 0 4 5 0 5 0 0

Ca t / u a q v ax i w x t x t c y cle B s

C x ac r U q e t i t x q v t aiq Ot r e t blic

Short distance car trips account for bulk of emissions.


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Passenger transport : potential effect of teleworking

Mini stage engt ft e ew r ingsubsti tuti n ( i es)

educt ion on total carbonemi ionfromU a enger tran port

educt ion on emi ionofcommut i g

educt ion on emi ionof i work travel


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Passenger transport: carbon emission by mode of travel

Load actor

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10 % 20% 30 % 40 % 50% 60% 70 % 80% 90 % 100%

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M e

Ca

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s

ai

Ai c at

Ca a e a e

Aircraft

C a teSc e le


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Passenger transport: mode of travel by distance

S t a g e Le n g th ( M i l e s )

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e

W a lk B ic c le Ca / a a x i M t c c le

B s C a c j U k e l k BR O t j e m blic1985 /6


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Passenger transport: carbon emission by car performance

gra es Carb erk

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300Accelerati

F el

See

UKs eeli it

Petrol

ieselMicrocars

Car carbon emissions are strongly related to top speed, acceleration and weight. Most cars

sold can exceed the maximum legal speed limit by a large margin. Switching to small carswould reduce car carbon emissions by about 40% in ten years. Switching to micro cars and

the best liquid fuelled cars would reduce emissions by about 90% in the longer term.


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Passenger transport: Risk of injury to car drivers involved in

accidents between two cars

Cars that are big CO2 emitters are most dangerous because of their weight, and because theyare usually driven faster. In a collision between a small and a large car, the occupants of the small

car are much more likely to be injured or killed. The most benign road users (small cars, cyclists,

pedestrians) are penalised by the least benign.

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Sma Sma me um Me um La e u eee

O2

m

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Transport: road speed and CO2 emission

Energy use and carbon

emissions increasestrongly with speed.Curves for other pollutantsgenerally similar, becauseemission strongly relatedto fuel consumption.

These curves are onlyapplicable to current

internal combustionvehicles. Characteristics offuture vehicles (e.g. urbaninternal combustion andelectric powered) would bedifferent. Minimumemission would probablybe at a lower speed, andthe fuel consumption andemissions at low speedswould not show the same

increase.

0%

100%

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400%

500%

600%

5 25 45 65 85 105 125 145

kph

Car(D,> 2.0n, Eo R

IV) Car(P,< 1.4

n, Eo R

IV)

Car(P,1.42.0

n, Eo R

IV) Car(P,> 2.0

n, Eo R

IV)

GV(D,R gid, Eo R IV) GV(D,Ar ic, Eo R

IV)

B (D,0, Eo R IV) Va (D, edium, Eo R IV)Va (D,

n

arge, Eo R

IV) Mcycle(P,250

750cc 4

, re)Mcycle(P,>750cc 4

, re)

M otorway

Frac m m m 2 km

Low speedemission

Average

conceals start/

stop congestion

And car design

dependent


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Transport: road speed and PM emission

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5 25 45 65 85 105 125 145

kph

Caz ({ ,| 2.0}, ~ URO IV) Caz ( , 2.0

}, ~ URO III)

Caz ( ,| 1.4}, ~ URO IV) Caz ( ,1.4 - 2.0

}, ~ URO IV)

H

V ({ ,Az ic, ~ URO III) H

V ({ ,Rigid, ~ URO IV)

us ({ ,0, ~ URO III) Van ({ ,sma } } , ~ URO IV)Van ({ ,medium, ~ URO IV) Mc c

}e ( ,| 250cc4-s, z e)

Mc c } e ( ,250-750cc4-s, z e)

Motorwa

Fr t f


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Transport: road speed and NOx emission

0%

100%

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600%

5 25 45 65 85 105 125 145

kph

Car(D,< 2.0 l, 83 351) Car(P,< 1.4 l, 91 441)Car(P,1.4

2.0 l, 91 441) Car(P,> 2.0 l, 91 441)

Car(P,> 2.0 l, E R IV) GV(D,Rigid, 88 77)

GV(D,Artic, 91 542 II) Va (D,medium, 93 59)Va (D,large, 93 59) Va (P,large, E R

III)

Va (P,

mall, E R IV)

Motorway

Frac m m m N x km


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Transport: road speeds

01020

30405060708090100

Mcycle

sars

arstowing

Lightgoo

ds

Bses/coac

hes

2a

le

3/4a

le

Articu

lated

4a

les

5+a

les

Breaingli

it

Motorways ual carriagewaySinglecariageway 30 ph roads40 ph roads

A large fraction (40-50%) of vehicles break the speed limits on all road types. This law-

breaking increases carbon and other emissions, and death and injury due to accident.

Enforcing the existing limits, and reducing them, would significantly reduce emissions and

injury.


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Transport: aviation

Aviation is a special sector because:

There is no near physical limit to growth as for land transport

It has the most rapid growth in demand of any major sector

Its emissions have particular impacts because of altitude

Aircraft are already relatively energy efficient

For these reasons, aviation is projected to become a dominant cause of global warming over the next fewdecades. The UK is a large exporter of aviation services, and fuelling this export will become perhaps themajor problem in UK energy policy. Currently there is no proven alternative to liquid fuels for aircraft.

Most aviation is international with special legal provisions, and so aviation (and shipping) can not be analysed inisolation from other countries.

Aviation is discussed in detail in reports that may be downloaded at:

http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Transport/Air/Aviation.htm


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Demand

management

Freight

Passenger

Business

Leisure

Technology

Airframe Engine

Aircraft size

OperationTraffic control

Load factor

Altitude

Speed

Route length

CONTROL

MEASURES

Aviation: control measures

Aviation emission control measures can be classed under demand management,technology and operations.


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Aviation: effects of technical and operational measures

30 %

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90 %

1 0 0 %

6 0 0 6 5 0 7 0 0 7 5 0 8 0 0 8 5 0 9 0 0 9 5 0 1 0 0 0

C ruis s

(

)

F

u

lus

rassngrilm

tre

C rre tD c re a s s ig nc ruis s

Turbo p rop/p ro p

a re laces turbo

a

Im p ro ve a irf ram e

Increase load factor

Imp rove existing

turbo fa

e

gine P rop fa

Te c n l g ic a lim pr em e t

O pe ra ti na lc a e

Behavioural measures (other than reducing basic demand) such as increasing aircraft load

factor and reducing cruising speed are as important as technological improvement. Thesemeasures can be implemented faster than technological change, as the average aircraft

operating life is about 30 years.


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Aviation scenarios

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1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Dem

Busi ess susual

Operati

al

Technology

Allexcept emand

All measures

Loadfactor

Carbonemission tC)

Aviation emissions can only be stabilised if all technical and operational measures are

driven to the maximum, and the demand growth rate is cut by half. To reduce aviation

emissions by 0% would require further demand reduction.


42/106


Transport: passenger demand by mode and vehicle type

Demand depends on complex of factors: demographics, wealth, land use patterns, employment, leisure travel.

National surface demand is limited by time and space, but aviation is not so limited by these factors.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Gpm

I t: a : la e

I t : a :Shi

at: a :Sh

i

at: a : la e

at: a : ail

at: a :

at: a : ar

at: a : cle

at: a : i e

GBR: e hBeh: P e er : L i t e


43/106


Transport: freight demand by mode and vehicle type

The scope for load distance reduction through logistics and local production is not assessed. International freight

is estimated.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Gk

In :F :P ne

In :F e:S

N :F e:P ne

N :F e:S

N :F e:P e

N:F

e: a l

Na :F e: DV

Na :F e:T u k

GBR:TechBeh: Fre h : Loa d ance


44/106


Transport, national: passenger mode

A shift from car to fuel efficient bus and train for commuting and longer journeys is assumed. The scope formodal shift from air to surface transport is very limited without the development of alternative long distance

transport technologies.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

%

Nat:Pa :S i

Nat:Pa :Plane

Nat:Pa :Rail

Nat:Pa : u

Nat:Pa :Car

Nat:Pa :MCycle

Nat:Pa : ike

GB : TechBeh: National : Passen er : ode


45/106


Transport: national : freight mode

Shift from truck to rail. Currently, no assumed shift to inland and coastal shipping.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.

1

1.2

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

%

Nat Fre ane

Nat Fre ip

Nat Fre ipe

Nat Fre Rai

Nat Fre LDV

Nat Fre ruck

GBR:TechBeh: at onal : re ght: ode


46/106


Transport: passenger vehicle load factor

Load factors of vehicles, especially aircraft, assumed to increase through logistical change.

Vehicle load capacities (passengers/vehicle; tonnes/truck) assumed unchanged.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

%

NatPa

ike

Nat Pa

yc e

NatPa

ar

NatPa

u

NatPa

ai

NatPa

P

ane

Nat

Pa

ip

IntPa

ip

Int Pa P ane

GB : echBeh: ass enger : Load actor


47/106


Further analysis: electric vehicles

Electric (EV) or hybrid electric/liquid fuelled (HELV) vehicles are a key option for the futurebecause liquid (and gaseous) fossil fuels emit carbon, will become more scarce and

expensive and are technically difficult to replace in transport, especially in aircraft.

Electric vehicles such as trams or trolley-buses draw energy whenever required but they are

restricted to routes with power provided by rails or overhead wires. Presently there are

no economic and practical means for providing power in a more flexible way to cars,

consequently electric cars have to store energy in batteries. The performance in terms of

the range and speed of EVs and HELVs is improving steadily such that EVs can meet

large fraction of typical car duties; the range of many current electric cars is 100-200

miles. A major difficulty with EVs is recharging them. At present, car mounted photovoltaic

collectors are too expensive and would provide inadequate energy, particularly in winter,

although they may eventually provide some of the energy required.

Because of these problems it may be envisaged that HELVs will first supplant liquid fuelled

vehicles, with an increasing fraction of electric fuelling as technologies improve.

Hydrogen is much discussed as a transport fuel, but the overall efficiency from renewableelectricity to motive power via hydrogen is perhaps 50%, whereas via a battery it might be

70%. For this reason, it is not currently included as an option. If the efficiency difference

were narrowed, and the refuelling and range problems of EVs are too constraining, then

hydrogen should be considered further.


48/106


49/106


Transport: freight vehicle distance

Some growth in freight vehicle distance. Vehicle capacities and load factors important assumptions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

G

.km

IntFre

P

ane_K

IntFre

ip_LB

Int Fre

ip_D

NatFre

Pipe_E

Nat

Fre

ip_D

NatFre

P

ane_K

NatFre

Rai

_E

NatFre

Rai

_D

Nat Fre ruck_LB

NatFre

ruck_D

Nat

Fre

LDV_E

Nat Fre LDV_H2

Nat Fre LDV_LB

NatFre

LDV_D

Nat Fre LDV_G

GBR: TechBeh: re ght : Veh cled stance


50/106


Transport: passenger: fuel per passenger km

Reductions in fuel use because of technical improvement, better load factors, lower speeds, and less

congestion.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

MJfuel/pkm

Nat:Pas:Bike_SNat:Pas:MCyc_GNat:Pas:Car_GNat:Pas:Car_

Nat:Pas:Car_LPGNat:Pas:Car_LBNat:Pas:Car_H2

Nat:Pas:Car_ENat:Pas:Bus_

Nat:Pas:Bus_LBNat:Pas:Bus_CNGNat:Pas:Bus_H2Nat:Pas:Bus_ENat:Pas:Rail_

Nat:Pas:Rail_LBNat:Pas:Rail_ENat:Pas:Pla e_KNat:Pas:S ip_

I t:Pas:S ip_

I t:Pas:Pla e_KI t:Pas:Pla e_LB

GBR: TechBeh: Pass enger : uelperloa km


51/106


Transport: passenger: delivered energy

Future passenger energy use dominated by international air travel.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

IntPas

P

ane_LB

IntPas

P

ane_K

Int Pas ip_DNat

Pas

ip_D

NatPas

P

ane_K

NatPas

Rai

_E

Nat

P

asR

ai

_LB

NatPas

Rai

_D

NatPas

Bus_E

Nat Pas Bus_H2Nat Pas Bus_CNGNat

Pas

Bus_LB

NatPas

Bus_D

NatPas

ar_E

Nat Pas ar_H2

Nat Pas ar_LBNat

Pas

ar_LPG

NatPas

ar_D

NatPas

ar_G

NatPas

yc_G

NatPas

Bike_

GBR: TechBeh: Pass enger : Del ered


52/106


Transport: freight delivered energy

Freight energy use is dominated by trucks. The potential for a further shift to rail needs investigation.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

I t:Fre:Pla e_K

I t:Fre:S ip_LB

I t:Fre:S ip_

Nat:Fre:Pipe_E

Nat:Fre:S ip_

Nat:Fre:Pla e_K

Nat:Fre:Rail_E

Nat:Fre:Rail_

Nat:Fre:Truck_LB

Nat:Fre:Truck_

Nat:Fre:L V_E

Nat:Fre:L

V_H2Nat:Fre:L V_LB

Nat:Fre:L V_

Nat:Fre:L V_G

GBR: TechBeh: reight : Delivere


53/106


End use sectors: useful energy services

Useful energy supply and services increase

Growth in all end uses except space heating

0

500

1000

1500

2000

25003000

3500

4000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

oo l

AC

H

W t rH

Cooki g

H120

igh t

Pro W

El qui

MotW

GB :TechBeh: nerg : eful


54/106


Energy conversion: efficiencies

Preliminary graph showing efficiencies of energy conversion. Efficiencies greater than one signify heat pumps.

Declining efficiencies are where the cogeneration heat fraction falls, and the electricity fraction increases

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Efficienc

MotProcH>120CH


55/106


End use sectors: energy delivered by sector

Delivered energy decreases because of demand management and energy conversion efficiency gains.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

Sea:Int

ir: Int

t erinland

Air: o

RailRoa : Freig t

Roa : a

Re i ential

Service

ot er

Agricultureig t

Met Min

C e ical

Iron and teel

GB : Te hBeh: elivere : y e tor


56/106


End use sectors: energy delivered by fuel

Reduction in fossil fuel use through efficiency and shift to alternatives.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

H_Solar

S_Bio

L_Bio

G_Bio

S_CHP

L_CHPG_CHP

H_Pipe (DH)

E_Ele

S_Fo

L_Avi je

L_MotGaL_Ga Die

L_LiqPeG

L_Fo

G_Fo

GB : Tech ifestyle: Delivered : by fuel


57/106


Energy supply: electricity

Options exercised:

Phase out of nuclear and coal generation

some fossil (coal, oil, gas) capacity may be retained for security

Extensive installation of CHP, mainly gas, in all sectors

Utilisation of biomass waste and biomass crops

Large scale introduction of renewable electricity

wind, solar, tidal, wave

Electricity supply in the scenarios requires more analysis of demand and supply technicalities and economics,particularly:

future technology costs, particularly of solar-electric systems such as photovoltaic

demand characteristics including load management and storage

renewable supply mix and integration


58/106


Energy supply: electricity : generating capacity

Capacity increases because renewables (especially solar) and CHP have low capacity factors. Some fossil

capacity would perhaps be retained for back-up and security.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

GWe

S FosL FueOilG FosN NucS BioL BioG Bio

S MunRefE H roH GeotheH SolarE aveE TideE indPump E

S FosL FosG FosS

G

G :TechBeh: Electricit :Capacit :GWe


59/106


Electricity: generation

Finite fuelled electricity-only generation replaced by renewables and CHP. Proportion of fossil back-upgeneration depends on complex of factors not analysed with SEEScen.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJe

S_FoL_FueOilG_FoN_Nuc

S_BioL_BioG_Bio

S_Mu ReE_HydroH_Geot eH_SolarE_WaveE_Ti eE_WiPu p_E

S_FoL_FoG_FoS_L_G_

GB : TechBeh: lectricity : Output : PJe


60/106


Electricity: generation costs (excluding distribution)

Because of increased CHP and renewables, the fraction of capital and operation and maintenance costs

increases and the fraction of fuel costs decreases

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

/GJ

CapPerYr

O ota

FuInCost

GBR:TechBeh: Generat on n t cost


61/106


Electricity: scenario generation costs (excluding distribution)

Relative generation costs depend critically on future fuel prices, but in these scenarios the larger demand

scenarios have higher electricity costs.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

/GJ

Base/Kyo o

Behav our

arbon15

Te hH gh

Te hBeh

GB : S narios:Generation unit cost


62/106


Energy: primary supply

Total primary energy consumption falls, and then increases

Fraction of renewable energy increases, then falls

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

H lar

H Ge he

H r

Wa e

e

ef

a

Nuclear

l

qu

Ga

GB : ec Be :Prim r


63/106


Fuel extraction

Extraction of oil and gas tails off as reserves are depleted

Biomass extraction increases

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

P

c

S io

S Fos

L uOil

G Fos

GB :TechBeh: Fuel ex rac i n:Ou pu


64/106


Fuel reserves

Oil and gas reserves effectively consumed

Large coal reserves available for strategic security

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

Nucear

oa

Petroeu

Natura ga

GB : echBeh: eserves


65/106


Energy trade

Nuclear fuel imports decline; gas and oil imports increase and stabilise; some electricity export.

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990

1995

200

0

200

5

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

Ga

iqui

Soli

uclea

r

lec

GB : Te hBeh: Tra e


66/106


Energy flow charts

The flow charts show basic flows in 1990 and 2050, and an animation of 1990-2050. The central part of the

charts illustrate the relative magnitude of the energy flows through the UK energy system. The top sectionshows carbon dioxide emissions at each stage. The bottom section shows energy wasted and dischargedto the environment.

Please note that the scale of these charts varies.

Observations:

Energy services:

space heating decreases

other demands increase, especially motive power and transport

Fuel supply

increase in efficiency (CHP)

increase in renewable heating, biomass and electricity

imports of gas and oil are required

electricity is exported


67/106


UK Energy flow chart: 1990

SE CO

BR : TechBeh :

Trade xtraction uel proce ing lectricity and heat elivered ector efulenergy

nviron

ent

Wa teenergy

Trd

N

xt

G

xt

xt

olid

Nuclear

Refinery i

olid

Nuclear

ueOil

lOnly

Ga

olid

lec

i

i

Re

G

Re

er

Ind

G

Ind

Ind

Tra(nat)

Tra(int)

Mot W

H>12

H


68/106


UK Energy flow chart: Animation 1990 to 2050


69/106


UK Energy flow chart: 2050SENCO GBR

Beh : Y2050

Trade Extraction Fuel processing Electricity and heat Delivered Sectors Useful energy

Environment

Waste energy

Trd_G

Trd_E

Trd_L

Biomass

Wind

v

Solar

Biowaste

BiomassBiomass

proc

Refinery

L_Bio

Liq

Wind

vSolar

Waste

ElOnly

Auto

Auto_H

Gas

G_CHP

H_Solar

Elec

Liq

Biomass Food

Res_G_CHP

l r

Ser G CHP

r

InInd_G_CHP

Ind_E_

Tra(nat) L

Tra(int) L

Mot W

H>120C

H


70/106


Environment

Often, the energy and environment debate concerns itself with routine, relatively easily quantified emissions suchas CO2, and ignores the many other impacts of energy demand and supply, even though they may asimportant economically or socially, if only in the shorter term.

There are particular problems concerning the environmental impacts of energy.

The definition and precision of calculation of many impacts are poor for technical reasons.

Future impacts depend on developments in technology, legislation and other controls.

Some impacts are routine, such as CO2 emission; others, such as a nuclear accident, are not routine and

have probabilities of occurrence and consequences that are impossible to calculate with any certainty.

Some impacts are physical; others, such as the threat of attack on a nuclear facility, are not physical but canstill have impacts.

Some impacts are not directly associated with technical energy processes. For example, in the low emissionscenarios, road traffic injuries and deaths would be reduced through measures such as less car travel andenforced speed limits. There would be further social benefits such as more equal access to transport, anddisbenefits such as less car driving.

The impacts are different in kind: gaseous, liquid, solid, radioactive, biological, visual, land take, etc. There isno objective method to weigh these against each other except through political processes.

SEEScen presently calculates: Atmospheric emissions of CO2, and of SO2, NOx, PM and CO although these are imprecise

Some other impacts such as the number of aerogenerators and the fraction of land area used for biomassproduction


71/106


72/106


Environment: CO2 emission by scenario

There is an eventual upturn in emissions as assumed demand growth overtakes technology and behaviouraloptions.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Mt

B s /Kyo to

B hav iour

arbon15

Te hHigh

Te hBeh

GB : Scenarios: Environment :Air : CO


73/106


74/106


Environment: particulate matter

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

kt

Fue: tFue:Pro

le:Gele:Pum

Ele: raHea:PubHea:Aut

ra(i t):Sea:I t

ra(i t):Air:Ira( at):Otherira( at):Air: ora( at): ailra( at): oad:Fra( at): oad:P

Re :ReSer:Ser

Oth:othI d:AgrI d: igI d:MetI d: heI d:Iro

GBR:Te hBeh: Air:PM10


75/106


Economics

In SEEScen, the direct annual costs of fuel, and the annuitised costs of conversion technologies and demandmanagement are calculated. The model does not account for anything unrelated to fuels or technologies,including:

indirect costs and benefits, such as the economic savings following a shift away from cars leading to reducedhealth damage because of accidents, toxic air pollution, and the value of reduced travel time

macroeconomic issues relating to the energy trade imbalance or exposure to fluctuating international fuelprices

Such economic impacts of energy scenarios can be of greater importance than direct costs. For example, thevalue of traffic related health injury and time lost in congestion is generally much greater than the costs of

controlling noxious emissions from vehicles.

International fuel prices are critical to the relative cost effectiveness of measures. It is probable that the UK wouldfollow a low energy emission path in parallel with other countries, at least in Europe. In such an internationalscenario, finite fossil and nuclear fuel prices will be lower than in a higher demand scenario. Thus theimplementation of options affects the cost-effectiveness of those options - a circularity:

the more renewable energy deployed, the cheaper the fossil fuels leading to an increase in the relative

cost of renewables

the more the consumption of fossil and nuclear fuels, the higher the prices for those, leading to anincrease in the relative cost of fossil and nuclear energy


76/106


International context

Fuel availability and price will depend onglobal and regional demand levels.

SEEScen was used to model the fivescenarios for the four largestenergy consumers near the UK:France, Germany, Spain and Italy.

Because the measures exercised are the

same, the primary energyconsumption of these countriesvaries in similar ways in thescenarios, although there are

differences in detail.This illustrates how regional energy

demand might vary according topolicies, and it has consequencesfor energy prices.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

3500040000

45000

50000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

GBR

ESP

I A

DEU

RA

ALLCOUNTR E

:Base/K oto :Pri

ar

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

GBR

ESP

I A

DEU

RA

ALLCOUNTRE

: TechBeh :Pri ar


77/106


Economics: fuel prices

International fuel prices are critical inputsto the economic analysis of

scenarios.Fundamentally, costs in the long term are

determined by the remainingamounts and marginal extractioncosts of the reserves of finite fossiland nuclear fuels. Prices depend oncosts and future demand-supplymarkets.

It may be argued that if the UK pursues a

low finite energy path then it is likelythat other countries will be doing thesame, at least within Europe.

The top chart shows a high demandprice projection, the bottom a lowdemand projection.

These merely illustrate possibledifferences in trends. It may that therelative prices of gas, oil and coal

will change.This requires further analysis.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

/GJ

G_Fo

_Fo

_ i PeG

_Ga

Die

_MotGa

_AviKje

_FueOil

_ ruOil

S_Fo

GBR:T chB h:Pric

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

/GJ

G_Fo

_F

o

_ i PeG

_Ga Die

_MotGa

_AviKje

_FueOil

_ ruOil

S_Fo

GBR:Base/ yoto:Price


78/106


Economics: TechBeh scenario annual costs of fuel, conversion and demand management

The annuitised costs of each fuel, technology and demand management option are calculated for each of theend use and supply sectors. In the low demand scenario, the fraction of total cost due to converters

(boilers, power stations, etc.) and demand management increases as compared to fuels.

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

M/a

Fue

onversion

De anage

GBR: TechBeh: conom cs : Country


79/106


Economics: Base scenario annual costs of fuel, conversion and demand management

In higher energy supply scenarios, the fraction of costs due to fuel increases because renewable energy andCHP constitute smaller fractions. One implication of this, in comparison with a lower demand scenario, is

that economic security is degraded because of the sensitivity to prices and availability of imported, globallytraded fuels.

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

M

/a

Fuel

Conversion

DemManage

GBR: Base/K oto: Economics : Countr


80/106


Economics: total cost by scenario

The more secure, lower impact systems for providing energy services may not have higher costs than high

demand and emission scenarios because more cost effective demand management is taken up. Also, fossil

fuel prices will be lower because European/global demand will be lower (the UK will not, or cannot actalone).

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

M

/a

Base Kyoto

Behaviour

Carbon15

TechHigh

TechBeh

GBR: cenarios: Economics : Countr


81/106


Economics: energy trade costs

The cost of increased imports of fossil fuels is partially balanced by electricity exports.

Note that the costs of imports are positive and exports, negative.

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

M/a

Ga

iquid

o id

Nucear

ec

GB : echBeh: rade costs


82/106


Economics: scenarios: energy trade total cost balance

The energy trade cost deficit increases in higher energy consumption scenarios because imports are greater and

fuel prices are higher

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

M/a

Ba e/Kyoto

Be aviour

Car on15

Tec Hig

Tec Be

GB : Scenarios: Trade costs


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Observations on scenarios: national energy

The scenarios are preliminary and could be improved with more recent data and sectoral analysis. However,

the relative magnitudes of energy flows, emissions and costs are illustrative of the main problems, and

possible solutions.

The scenarios show that:

Large reductions in carbon dioxide and other emissions are possible without utilising irreversibletechnologies with potential large scale risks - nuclear power and carbon sequestration.

Transport fuel supply is a more difficult problem than fuelling electricity supply or the stationary sectors

which have many potential fuel sources. Transport is the most difficult sector to manage, because:

demand management options are limited as compared to the stationary sector

of growth, especially in aviation limited efficiency improvement potential as efficiency is already a strong driver in freight transport

and aviation

lack of alternatives to liquid fuels, especially for aviation

The potential for the direct use of electricity as a transport fuel rather than the inefficient production anduse of secondary fuels such as biofuels or hydrogen needs more exploration

In all scenarios, under the assumption of continued growth in energy service demand, emissions increase in

the longer term as the effects of known technologies are absorbed. Behavioural options are important,especially if nascent technologies do not become technically and economically feasible. Thereforeanalysis and speculation on the following might be useful:

possible future socioeconomic changes and impact on energy service demands

long term technology development


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Observations on scenarios: economics and environment

Economics

The total cost of energy services may be less in low emission scenarios because of the cost effectivenessof demand management and efficiency as compared to supply. This assumes that in the future, as now,the UK energy system is not optimal in economic terms because of market imperfections which lead toinadequate investment in demand management and energy efficiency.

The more the application of demand management and renewable energy, the less is the UK exposed tointernational fuel price fluctuations.

Demand management and renewables reduce the UK balance of payments deficit for energy trade.

Energy use and emissions increase when presumed growth overtakes implementation of current technologyoptions. In the long term, therefore demand management, service and renewable energy technologies willrequire further implementation. A particular need is to find substitutes for liquid fuelled aircraft for longdistance transport.


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Observations on scenarios: national and international

The TechBeh scenario has a surplus of electricity; should

less be generated?

the surplus be used to substitute for fossil resources, e.g.

to make transport fuels even if the process is wasteful?

for heating and other uses not requiring electricity?

the surplus be exported as trade for other fuels?

It is not possible to develop a robust and economic UK energy strategy for the long term withoutconsideration of international developments, for a number of reasons:

the UK has transmission linkage with other countries; this is especially important for electricity ifrenewable sources in the UK meet a large fraction of total demand

the availability of fuels for import depends on global demand

there are international arrangements that constrain UK policy in terms of demand management andsupply, for example, treaties concerning international aviation and shipping

This leads to system dynamics and the international aspects of energy scenarios.


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Energy systems aspects: space and time

SEEScen has a main focus on annual flows, although it can simulate seasonal and hourly flows. Othermodels are required to analyse issues arising with short term variations in demand and supply, andwith the spatial location of demands and supplies.

Questions arising:

Can the demands be met hour by hour using the range of supplies?

What spatial issues might arise?

Some aspects of this are explored and illustrated with these models:

EleServe : Electricity system model for temporal analysis

EST Energy Space Time model

InterEnergy Energy trade model


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Electricity system: detailed considerations

Electricity demand and supply have to be continuously balanced as there is no storage in the transmissionnetwork, unlike gas. This balancing can be achieved by controlling demand and supply, and by

introducing storage on the system (pumped storage) or near the point of use: heat and electricity storage(hot water tanks, storage heaters, vehicle batteries) can be used to store surplus renewable energy whenit is available, so that the energy can later be used when needed.

The EleServe Electricity Services model has these components:

Electricity demand

disaggregated into segments across sectors and end uses

each segment with

a temporal profile

load management characteristicElectricity supply

each renewable source with own temporal profile

heat related generation with its own temporal profile

optional thermal generators characterised by energy costs at full and part load, and for starting up

Operational control

load management by moving demands if cost reduced

optional units brought on line to minimise diurnal costs

The following graphs demonstrates the role that load management can play in matching variable demands toelectricity supplied by variable renewable and CHP or cogeneration sources.


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Electricity : diurnal operation without load management


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Electricity : animated diurnal operation with load management


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Electricity : diurnal operation with load management

EleServe Scenario: Efficiency+ CHP + renewables 2025 Winter day : Su er day SE CO

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Electricity : commentary

The electricity demand-supply simulation :

shows how load management can alter the pattern of demand to better match CHP and renewableelectricity generation. The residual demand to be met by generators utilising fuels such as biomass or fossilfuels, that can alter their output, is less variable and the peak is smaller.

demonstrates the importance of demand patterns and technologies in strategies for integrating variableelectricity sources

indicates that large fractions of variable sources can be accommodated without substantial back-up

capacity

end use or other local storage could play a significant role, especially if electric vehicles are widely used as

in some of the scenarios

Further work is required on:

data defining current and future demand technologies

detailed electricity demand forecasts

the feasibility of integrated control of demand and supply technologies, including the accuracy of predictionof hourly demands and renewable supplies over time periods of a several hours or days

more refined optimisation


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Energy systems in space and time

For temporally variable demand and energy sources, what is the best balance between : local supply and long distance transmission?

demand management, variable supply, optional or back up generation and system or localstorage?

These questions can be asked over different time scales (hour by hour, by day of week, seasonal)

and spatial scales (community, national, international).

The EST and InterTrade models have been developed to illustrate the issues and indicate possiblesolutions for integrating spatially separate energy demands and sources, each with differenttemporal characteristics.


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UK energy, space and time illustrated with EST


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UK energy, space and time illustrated with EST : animated


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A wider view of the longer term future

Wealthy countries like the UK can reduce their energy demands and emissions with cost-effective

measures implemented in isolation from other counties, and in so doing improve their security.However, at some point it is more practical and cost-effective to consider how the UK can bestsolve energy and environment problems in concert with other countries.

As global fossil consumption declines because of availability, cost and the need to control climatechange, then energy systems will need to be reinforced, extended and integrated over largerspatial scales.

This would be a continuation of the historical development of energy supply that has seen thegeographical extension and integration of systems from local through to national andinternational systems.

The development and operation of these extended systems will have to be more sophisticated thancurrently. Presently, the bulk of variable demands in rich countries is met with reserves of fossiland nuclear fuels, the output of which can be changed by turning a tap. When renewableenergy constitutes a large fraction of supply, the matching of demands and supplies is a morecomplex problem both for planning and constructing a larger scale system, and in operating it.


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International electricity : demand

Further connecting the UK system to

other countries increases thebenefits of diversity, at the cost oftransmission.

The first chart shows the pattern ofmonthly demands for differentEuropean countries.

The second chart shows the normaliseddiurnal demand patterns for somecountries. Note that these are all forlocal time; time zone differenceswould shift the curves and make thedifferences larger.

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International electricity: supply; monthly hydro output

Hydro will remain the dominant renewable in Europe for some time. It has a marked seasonality in output as

shown in the chart; note that hydro output can vary significantly from year to year. Hydro embodiessome energy storage and can be used to balance demand and supply; to a degree determined bysystem design and other factors such as environment.

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Electricity trade

An extensive continentalgrid already exists

The diversity of demandand supply variationsincreases acrossgeographical regions

What is the best balancebetween local and remotesupply?

InterEnergy model

Trade of energy over linksof finite capacity

Time varying demands and

supply

Minimise avoidable

marginal cost

Marginal cost curves forsupply generated by modelsuch as EleServe


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InterEnergy animated trade

Animation shows

programme seekingminimum cost for oneperiod (hour)


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Europe and western Asia large point sources

The environmental impact of energy is a global issue: what is the best strategy for reducingemissions within a larger region?


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World

There are global patterns in demands and renewable supplies:

Regular diurnal and seasonal variations in demands, some climate dependent

Regular diurnal and seasonal incomes of solar energy Predictable tidal energy income


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World: a global electricity transmission grid?

Should transmission be global to achieve an optimum balance between supply, transmission and storage?

Which investments are most cost efficient in reducing GHG emission? Should the UK invest in photovoltaic

systems in Africa, rather than the UK? This could be done through the Clean Development Mechanism


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Security: preliminary generalities 1

Energy security can be defined as the maintenance of safe, economic energy services for social wellbeing andeconomic development, without excessive environmental degradation.

A hierarchy of importance for energy services can be constructed:

Core services which it is immediately dangerous to interrupt

food supply

domestic space heating, lighting

emergency services; health, fire, police

Intermediate importance. Provision of social services and short-lived essential commodities

owerimportance. Long-lived and inessential commodities

Part of security planning is for these energy services to degrade gracefully to the core.

The various energy supply sources and technologies pose different kinds of insecurity:

renewable sources are, to a degree, variable and/or unpredictable, except for biomass

finite fossil and nuclear fuels suffer volatile increases in prices and ultimate unavailability

some technologies present potentially large risks or irreversibility


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Security : preliminary generalities 2

Supply security over different time scales

Gross availability of supply over future years. The main security is to reduce dependence on the

imports of gas, oil and nuclear fuels and electricity through demand management and the development ofrenewable energy.

Meeting seasonal and diurnal variations. This mainly causes difficulty with electricity, gas, andrenewables except for biomass. Demand management reduces the seasonal variation in demand andthence the supply capacity problem for finite fuels and electricity. Storage and geographical extension of thesystem alleviates the problem.

Security of economic supply. Demand management reduces the costs of supply.

The gross quantities of fuel imports are less, and therefore the marginal and average prices

The reduced variations in demand bring reduced peak demands needs and therefore lower capacitycosts and utilisation of the marginal high cost supplies

The greater the fraction of renewable supply, the less the impact of imported fossil or nuclear fuel price rise

A diverse mix of safe supplies each with small unit size will reduce the risks of a generic technology failure

Security from technology failure or attack. In the UK, the main risk is nuclear power.

Security from irreversible technology risk. In the UK, nuclear power and carbon sequestration

Environment impacts. All energy sources and technologies have impacts, but the main concern here are longterm, effectively irreversible, regional and global impacts. The greater the use of demand management andrenewable energy, the less fossil and nuclear, the less such large impacts.


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Electricity security

Demand management will reduce generation and peak capacity requirements as it :

reduces total demand

reduces the seasonal variation in demand, and thence maximum capacity requirements

It has been illustrated how load management might contribute to the matching of demand with variable supply.This can be further extended with storage, control and interruptible demand.

During the transition to CHP and renewable electricity, supply security measures could be exercised:

etain some fossil fuel stations as reserves. Currently in the UK, there are these capacities:

Coal 19 GW large domestic coal reserve

Oil 4.5 GW oil held in strategic reserves

Dual fired 5. GW

Gas 25 GW gas availability depends on other gas demands

Utilisation, if necessary of some end use sector generation. Currently in excess of 7 GW, but these plantsare less flexible because they are tied to end use production, services and emergency back-up

The building of new flexible plant such as gas turbines if large stations are not suitable

Electricity trade with other countries can be used for balancing. There are geographical differences in the hourlyvariations of demands and renewable supply because of time zones, weather, etc. The strengthening of the

link between France and the UK, and creation of links with other countries would enhance this option.


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Gas and oil security

The measures to improve oil and gas security are basically the same, diversify fuel sources and

store fuels:

Diversify supply sources

Extension of the gas transmission system

Develop LNG imports

Increase storage

Enlarge long term gas storage in depleted gas fields Increase strategic 90 day oil reserve as required by IEA

Uk Energy Scenarios_2006

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