UK CCSC September 2007

UK CCSC

September 2007

Marine Environmental Impacts

Jerry Blackford, Nancy Jones, Steve Widdicombe, Dave Lowe, Carol Turley, Andy Rees and others…

ModellingModelling

Regional scale impacts of distinct CO2 additions in the North Sea.J C Blackford1,* & N Jones1

R Proctor2 & J Holt2

1 Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK.2 Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK.

AbstractA coupled hydrodynamic – ecosystem – carbonate system model applied to the North West European shelf seas is used to simulate the consequences of distinct CO2 additions such as those that could arise from a failure of geological sequestration schemes. The choice of leak scenario is guided by only a small number of available observations and requires several assumptions; hence the simulations reported on are engineered to be worse case scenarios. Only the most extreme scenarios are capable of producing perturbations that are likely to have environmental consequences beyond the immediate vicinity of a leak and these only in restricted areas. We show that, given the available evidence, the environmental impact of a sequestration leak is likely to be insignificant when compared to the expected impact from continued non-mitigated atmospheric CO2 emissions and the subsequent acidification of the marine system. We also conclude that far more research, including both leak simulations and assessment of ecological impacts is necessary to fully understand the impact of CO2 additions to the marine system.

Submitted to Marine Pollution bulletin, Under Review

Modelling

Scenario SiteInput

duration days

Depthm†

Input concentration

Daily input per metre squared

Daily input to model environment

Total input

mmol .m-3.d-1 Carbong.m-2.d-1

CO2

g.m-2.d-1

Carbontonnes.box-1.d-1

CO2

tonnes.box-1.d-1

Carbontonnes

CO2

tonnes

Seepage - low

North 365 7.7 0.50.046 0.168 2.25 8.23 823 3018

South 365 1.6 2.42

Seepage - high

North 365 7.7 50.04.6 16.8 225.0 823.0 82307 301791

South 365 1.6 242.0

Short term leak - low

North 1 138.0 50.0082.800 303.600 4057.2 14876.4 4057 14876

South 1 28.5 242.00

Short term leak - high

North 1 138.0 500.00828.000 3036.000 40572.0 148764.0 40572 148764

South 1 28.5 2424.00

Long term leak

North 365 138.0 50.0082.800 303.600 4057.2 14876.4 1480878 5429886

South 365 28.5 242.00

Scenarios

Modelling

Modelling leak scenarios: ok warning dangerOA

Modelling

Modelling leak scenarios: ok warning dangerOA

Timing of leak relative to tidal cycle could be crucial

North Site

South Site

Modelling: Predicted sensitivities

Pelagic: Functionally Fast

Benthic: Functionally Slow

Oxic

Redox

Anox

ReSeeding Mixing

Recovery is a big issue for the benthic system, not the pelagic

Sediment Biogeochemical response.

4 pH treatments: 8.0, 7.3, 6.5 and 5.6

2 sediment types: Muddy silt and fine sand

Plymouth Marine Laboratory

Norwegian Institute for Water Research

Water pump for circulation

Control box

pH & temp sensor

CO2 gasRegulator

LAN / internet connection

Natural seawater

Acidified seawater

Impact of pH on a range of species:

Psammechinus miliaris (Sea urchin, hard bottom)Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis (Sea urchin, hard bottom)Brissopsis lyrifera (Sea urchin, burrows in muddy sediment)Echinocardium cordatum (Sea urchin, burrows in sandy sediment)Ophiura ophiura (Brittlestar, sediment surface)Amphiura filiformis (Brittlestar, burrows in sediment)Nereis virens (Polychaete worm, burrows in sediment)Mytilus edulis (Bivalve)Callianassa subteranea (Burrowing shrimp) Upogebia deltuara (Burrowing shrimp)

Impact of pH :

Benthic diversityNutrient fluxPredator / prey interactions

Sand Mud

NI = -101.9 + 33.99pH

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

175

225

200

150

125

100

75

50F = 17.02; p = 0.001

NI = -149.4 + 28.86pH

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

175

225

200

150

125

100

75 F = 69.49; p = 0.000

2 weeks 20 weeksS = -13.35 + 5.626pH

F = 41.24; p = 0.000

25

35

30

20

155.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

S = -32.80 + 6.814pH

15

25

20

10

5

05.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

F = 31.10; p = 0.000

n.s.

J = 0.2297 + 0.071pH

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

0.7

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.5 F = 14.48; p = 0.001

S = -0.66 + 4.427pH

40

50

45

35

25

20

30

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

F = 5.57; p = 0.030

S = -58.95 + 12.05pH

F = 61.27; p = 0.000

20

40

30

10

05.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

NI = -289.5 + 71.62pH

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

200

400

300

100

0F = 20.50; p = 0.000

300

500

400

200

100

NI = -67.0 + 51.10pH

F = 3.75; p = 0.069

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

n.s.n.s.

2 weeks 20 weeks

pH and macrofaunal diversity

numberof

species

numberof

indvs

evenness

Biodiversity is impacted

7.5

2.0

3.0

2.5

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

NO2 = -2.862 + 0.5081pH

-0.5 F = 15.81; p = 0.001

Seawater pH

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

60

100

80

40

20

0

SiO = -70.84 + 18.56pH

F = 7.41; p = 0.014

SiO = -61.94 + 16.31pH

60

100

80

40

20

05.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

F = 8.85; p = 0.008

NH4 = 350.9 – 39.60pH

200

300

250

150

100

50

0

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

F = 5.13; p = 0.036

NH4 = 104.5 – 13.17pH

40

6050

302010

0-10-20

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

NO3 = 108.5 + 19.00pH

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

20

60

40

0

-20F = 35.90; p = 0.000

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

10

30

20

0

-10

-20

NO3 = -41.73 + 7.496pH

F = 18.77; p = 0.000

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

0.25

0.75

0.50

0.00

NO2 = -1.573 + 0.278pHN

itri

teN

itra

teA

mm

on

ium

Sil

ica

te2 weeks 20 weeks

F = 11.75; p = 0.003

F = 53.83; p = 0.000

Sand

NH4 = 351.1 – 42.73pH

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

F = 30.72; p = 0.000

20

40

30

10

0

NH4 = 85.15 – 9.453pH

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 8.0

F = 18.72; p = 0.001

0.25

0.75

0.50

0.00

NO2 = -1.429 + 0.2496pH

5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0

F = 42.65; p = 0.000

ns

80

160

120

40

0

ns ns

2 weeks 20 weeksMud

ns ns

Seawater pH

pH and nutrient flux

Benthic function is affected

Impact on Benthic Physiology

Brissopsis lyrifera

Echinocardium cordatum

Ophiura ophiura

Amphiura filiformis

Muddy SedimentsSurface Dwellers

Sandy SedimentsDeeper Dwellers

Impacts on Cellular Processes in Sediment Dwelling Echinoderms.

Impact on Lysosomes

Lysosomal Neutral Red Retention

Damaged lysosomes exhibit pathological responses including enlargement and leakage – the greater the damage the faster the response

Damaged lysosomes exhibit pathological responses including enlargement and leakage – the greater the damage the faster the response

HealthyDamaged

Brissopsis Coelomocyte NRR

Dye Retention Time

Control

pH76

pH72

pH68

0 20 40 60 80 100

p 0.03

pH 7.6

pH 7.2

pH 6.8

Brissopsis Coelomocyte NRR

Dye Retention Time

Control

pH76

pH72

pH68

0 20 40 60 80 100

p 0.03

pH 7.6

pH 7.2

pH 6.8

Echinocardium Coelomocyte NRR

Retention Time

Control

pH76

pH72

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

p 0.000

Echinocardium

pH 7.6

pH 7.2

Echinocardium Coelomocyte NRR

Retention Time

Control

pH76

pH72

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

p 0.000

Echinocardium

pH 7.6

pH 7.2

Echinocardium

Impact on Gut PhysiologyControl pH 8

Brissopsis

pH 6.8pH 7.2pH 7.6

Ophiura

Impact on reproductive organsControl pH 7.6

pH 6.8pH 7.2

Experiments: example

regrowth

Regrowth Length

0

10

20

30

8 7.7 7.3 6.5

pH treatmentle

ngth

(m

m)

Arm Calcium Content

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

8 7.7 7.3 6.5pH treatment

% c

alci

um

established arm

regrowth

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

8 7.7 7.3 6.5

pH

um

ol/o

xyg

en

/da

y

Arm regeneration inAmphiura filiformisat low pH Hannah Wood

35 day exposure

stress response

Nutritional quality of regenerated arms ?

Long term, slow onset exposures

Policy & CommunicationsCarol: Presentation on CCS and OA to Jonathon Shaw (Minister for Marine, Landscape and Rural Affairs and Minister for the South East);Deborah Wells (Senior Private Secretary to Jonathon Shaw); Trevor Hutchings (Deputy Director, Fishing Industry Management Division - Defra), Diana Linskey (Deputy Director Marine Environment Division - Defra); Gail Clarke (Fishing Industry Management Division - Defra); Linda Gilroy (MP, Plymouth) during visit to PML - July 07  Steve: “Predicting the impact of seawater acidification on the marine environment” 2nd Meeting of the Scientific Group Intercessional Technical Working Group on CO2 Sequestration within the framework of the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping Wastes and Other Matter, 1972, Oslo, Norway 16th-20th April 2007

Mel, Jerry, Steve: “Ocean Acidification and Carbon Capture and Storage” Defra Policy ‘Snapshot’ presentation, London 21st May 2007.

Steve: “Predicting the impact of leakage on the North Sea ecosystem” Carbon Capture and Storage Association, Environmental Impact Assessment Workshop, London 23rd August 2007.

Future

Carol: Planned outreach activities in next 3 months: presentations at Royal Soc on CCS organised by institutes of Biology Chemistry and Physics and at a workshop in Bergen

Jerry: Carbon Transportation and Storage, London, 4th December. www.iom3.org.events/carbon

Future Plans

Talking with BP re sensible leakage scenarios. Fine scale modelling, 1.8 km grid and ~50m

Experiment: Impact of acidification on the uptake of metals by marine organismsIn October 2007 an experiment will be conducted that addresses the following hypothesis:

H0: Seawater acidification will not affect the bioaccumulation of metals in 4 different marine organisms.

We will look at 2 elevated pH treatments plus controls. We will add organisms from 4 different taxa (annelid, mollusc, crustacean and echinoderm) to sediment from the Fal estuary which is naturally contaminated by metals. After a period of exposure we will analyse the organisms for metal bioaccumulation. Metals to be assessed are potentially:

Ag, As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn.