ughaA - indiabudget.gov.in · 232 10- 0o"kZ25r00 Ñ d0fVkª gSaA izHkkoh :i ls] fu;a=k.k lewg ds...

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D;k Hkkjr dh thMhih o`f¼ dks c<+k&p<+kdj n'kkZ;k tkrk gS\ ughaA

10

231D;k Hkkjr dh thMhih o`f¼ dks c<+k&p<+kdj n'kkZ;k tkrk gS\ ughaA

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232 vkfFkZd leh{kk 2019-20 [k.M 1

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MhvkbZMhifjdyudk;glaLdj.kthMhihizkfof/dhcnyko(mipkji'pkr~varj)dscknvkSlrthMhihfodklnj

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(igys)vof/dsfy,HkkjrrFkkfu;af=krns'kksadhthMhiho`f¼dko.kZudjrkgSMhvkbZMhmidj.kHkkjrrFkkvU;

fu;af=krns'kksadschpvkSlrthMhihfodklesaizo`fÙk;ksdhrqyukdkdqy;ksxgksrkgSAfp=kesafcUnqvafdriafDrifjdfYir

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vklkuhlsdgfn;ktkrkgSijarqfiQjHkhblesalekuizo`fÙkdkfodViwokZuqekuHkjkgSAthMhihizkfof/dhv/Z&ijh{k.k

esa]MhvkbZMhdks;gekufy;ktkrkgSfdfdlhthMhihizkfof/dhcnykodsvHkkoesav/;;uesafu;a=kdds:iesa

10-11ekud varjkarj (MhvkbZMh) ekWMy ,dvFkZferh;rduhdgStks,dv/Z&iz;ksxtSlsthMhihekiuiz.kkyh ifjorZu ds varj izHkko dk vè;;udjds,diz;ksxkRedvuqla/kkufMtkbudhudydjusdkiz;kldjrkgSAvè;;ufd,x,foHksnd

izHkkofdlhns'kdhvkSlrldy?kjsywmRikndho`f¼njesavarjgS]tksHkkjr(iz'kks/ulewg)]cukevU;ns'kksatksifjorZu(fu;a=k.klewg)tgkaifjorZuughafd,x,gSa]dsekè;evkadfyrfd,x,gSAbldk;Ziz.kkyhlslacaf/ruksVdsfy,ckWDl2ns[ksaA


-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

India GDP growthReqd. growth of control group to apply DIDCounterfactual India GDP growth without methodology change

Effect of change in methodology on GDP growth

GDP M

etho

dolog

y Ch

ange

Before After

fp=k 1% vkn'kZ varjkraj :ijs[kk esa mipkj izHkko dk fp=k.kA

lzks=k%fo'ocSadMCY;wMhvkbZMsVkcsl

mi;ksxfd,x,ns'kksesavkSlrthMhiho`f¼izo`fÙkoghgStSlsfdgesHkkjrdhthMhihvuqekuesajghgSAbliwokZuqeku

dksvko';drkgksrhgSfd2011esa¶mipkj¸lsigysHkkjrrFkkvU;ns'kksusthMhihfodklesalekukarjizo`fÙk;ksdks

ikyufd;kgksAvxj;gpkywjgrkrksrFkkHkkjrizkfof/dhla'kks/uls^mipkfjr^ughagksrkrksfp=k2vr%;Fkksfpr

ughagksxkA,slkrF;gksrsgq,HkhfdMhvkbZMhthMhiho`f¼dkvuqekudjusdsfy,dsoy,d=kqfViw.kZekWMygS];g

vè;k;rFkkfiizkfof/dhdhblfo"k;ijvU;vè;;uksdslkFkrqyukdjusdsfy,psrkouhdslkFkmi;ksxesaykrkgSA

fp=k 2% MhvkbZMh dks xyr iwokZuqeku yxkus ds fy, =kqfViw.kZ ekWMy cukrs gq, Hkkjr rFkk vU; ns'k us 2012 ds igys ¶mipkj¸ ls igys lekukarj izo`fÙk;ks dk ikyu ugha fd;k gSA

0.000.000.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.100.11

GD

P G

row

th R

ate

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016Year

India Other Countries Fitted-Difference

lzks=k%fo'ocSadMCY;wMhvkbZMsVkcsl

10-12thMhih o`f¼ esa xyr vuqeku yxkus dsifj.kke dks lgh rjhds ls ekius ds fy, ekudMhvkbZMh ekWMy gsrq visf{kr vk/kkjHkwr iwokZuqeku

¶lekukarj izo`fÙk¸ iwokZeku gSA thMhih izkfof/dhv/Z&ijh{k.kesa]MhvkbZMhdks;geku fy;ktkrkgSfdfdlhthMhihizkfof/dhcnykodsvHkkoesa


fp=k 3% 2011 ls igys Hkkjr ,oa vU; ns'k lekukarj thMhih izo`fÙk dk vuqikyu ugha djrs gS

0.000.000.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.100.11

GDP

Gro

wth

Rate

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016Year

India Other Countries Fitted-Difference

0.000.000.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.100.11

GDP

Gro

wth

Rate

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016Year

India Other MIC Fitted-Difference

lzks=k%iw.kkZuane(2019)

vè;;uesafu;a=kdds:iesami;ksxfd,x,ns'kksaesa vkSlr thMhih fodkl izo`fÙk ogh gksuh pkfg,tSlsHkkjrdhthMhihdkvuqekuyxkusesagksrhgSAbliwokZuqekudksvko';drkgksrhgSfd2011esa¶mipkj¸lsigysHkkjrrFkkvU;ns'kksausthMhihfodkl esa lekukarj izo`fÙk;ks dk ikyu fd;k Fkkvxj;gpkywjgrkrksHkkjrizkfof/dhla'kks/ulsmipkfjrughagksrkAdsoybldsi'pkr~gecjkcjrqyukdjldrsgSaA;fnlekukarjizo`fÙkiwokZuqekudkmYya?kugksrkgSrksfiQjekudMhvkbZMhorZekuleL;kdsfy,mi;qDrmidj.kughagSA(lekukarjizo`fÙkiwokZuqekudsfp=k.kdsfy,CkkDl2ns[ks)

10-13fp=k3dksiw.kkZuane(2019)lsfy;kx;kgStksØe'k%nksiSuyesarqyukdjrkgS(d)lHkhvU;izfrn'kZns'kksadslkFkHkkjrdklao`f¼oØiFk[k)izfrn'kZesavU;eè;vk;ns'kkasdsvkSlrdslkFk Hkkjrdk oØiFkA fp=k 4 izkfof/dhcnykodso"kZ]2011&12rdlsvU;eè;vk;ns'kksadhrqyukesaHkkjrdsoØiFkdksn'kkZrkgSAlHkhpkVZ;gLi"VdjrsgSfdHkkjrrFkkvU;ns'kksus2011lsigyslao`f¼esalekukarjizo`fÙkdkikyuughafd;kFkkA;gkardfdtcvU;,f'k;kMZeè;vk;ns'kksa(fp=k4dkizFkeiSuy)lsrqyukdhtkrhgSrksgelekukarjizo`fÙkns[kusesavliQyjgrsgSaSaAifjorZu

fp=k 4% Hkkjr vkSj vU; eè; vk; ns'k] 2011 ls igys thMhih fodkl esa lekarjrk dk ikyu ugha

-.05

0.0

5.1

GD

P G

row

th R

ate

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year

India BangladeshIndonesia MauritiusPhilippines TurkeySri Lanka ThailandLebanon

-.1

-.05

0.0

5.1

.15

GD

P G

row

th R

ate

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year

India SenegalNamibia MoroccoSouth Africa LesothoKenya BostwanaGhana


ekursgSaAgeblsvU;vè;;uksa]tSlsfdlqczkef.k;u(2019)]dslkFkrqyukdsfy,djrsgSaAcknds[kaMksaesagebulhekvksalsikjikusdsfy,ekWMylek;ksftrdjusdsrjhdsdkirkyxk,axsA

10-17ge fuEukafdrØkl&lSD'kuyizrhixeudknksckjvuqekuyxkrsgSa],dckjcnyko&iwoZvofèkdsfy,vkSj,dcnykockndhvofèkgsrq%

vkfJrpjvofèkT esans'ki dhokLrfodthMhihc<+rnjgSALora=kpjesafu;kZrksa]vk;krksavkSjfuth{ks=kesaØsfMVvkSjlkFkghlkFkHkkjrgsrqizfr:ipjds:iesa'kkfeygSAizR;sdns'kgsrqyxkrkjpjksadksigysvuqekugsrqcnykoiwoZo"kks±vkSj f}rh;vuqekugsrqcnykoi'pkro"kks±ijvkSlrfd;kx;kA:fpdkxq.kkadHkkjrizfr:ipjgSAcnyko&i'pkrfof'k"Vhdj.k vkSj cnyko&iwoZ ds xq.kkad esa varjlscnyko&i'pkrdhvofèkesaxyrvuqekudhfo'kkyrkdkirkpyrkgSA

10-18nksiwyfd,mijksDrØkl&lSD'kuyizrhixeufuEu:ils,dfof'k"VrkesatksM+stkldrsgSa%

blekWMyesaiz'kks/uvof/T }kjkn'kkZbZtkrhgStks cnykoi'pkrvof/gsrq ,ddscjkcjvkSjcnyko&iwoZ vof/ gsrq 'kwU; ds cjkcj gksrk gSA:fp dk pj vc Ø2 gS tks Hkkjrh; thMhih ds

ufliQZmipkjrFkkfu;af=krlewgdschpgScfYdfu;af=krlewgdsHkhrjHkhifjorZugSA

10-14,dekudMhvkbZMhekWMylsdksbZHkhfu"d"kZizkIrdjusgsrqlekukUrj:>kuksadkiwokZuqekuyxkukegRoiw.kZgksrkgSArFkkfitSlkfdvkadM+ksalsLi"VgksrkgSHkkjr2011lsiwoZvU;ns'kksadhrqyukesafdlhlekukUrj#>kudkvuqlj.kughadjrkvr%fdlhdk;Z&i¼fresala'kksèkuugksusls,slkekuusdkdksbZdkj.kughagSfdHkkjr2011dscknHkhlekukUrj#>kutkjhj[krkvkSjij[ksx,MhvkbZMh(2011la'kksèkudkifj'kksèkuizHkko)dkslkoèkkuhlsmi;ksxesaykukpkfg,A

10-15vU;pqukSrhgSLora=kpjdkpqukogSApwafdthMhih,dvR;artfVyrF;gStksfdlkis{kvkSjfujis{krkSjijcgqrlslkekftd&vkfFkZddkjdksalsizHkkforgksrkgSftuesalsdqNdksekiktkldrkgSvkSjvfèkdka'kdkekiuughafd;ktkldrkA,slsesaNksM+sx,pjdsiwokZxzgdkvfèkd[krjkgSAbleqísijgevxys[kaMesafopkjdjsaxsA

10-16iz'kksèkuvkSjfu;a=k.kdschp,dlekukUrj#>kudhdehlkFk gh foyksfirpj iwokZxzgdhlaHkkO;rk]ekudMhvkbZMhdk;Z&iz.kkyhdksfdD;kHkkjrdkthMhihdkxyrvuqekuyxk;kx;kgSfdugha\;gvkadyudjusdsfy,,dnks"k;qDrmidj.kcukrkgSArFkkfi;fn'kq#djsarkstSlkfdlqczkef.k;u (2019) esa dk;kZfUor fd;k x;k ,dekudMhvkbZMh ekWMydks ,dvkèkkjds:iesa

-.05

0.0

5.1

GD

P G

row

th R

ate

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year

India NicaraguaPeru ParaguayJamaica Dominican RepublicEl Salvador Cosa RicaHonduras

-.1

-.05

0.0

5.1

.15

GD

P G

row

th R

ate

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year

India MoldovaNorth Macedonia SerbiaRomania UkraineBulgaria BelarusArmenia

Source: World Bank WDI Database.


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___________________________

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X1 vkSj X2 /ukRed :i ls lglacaf/r gS

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mnkgj.kkFkZlqczgefu;u(2019)}kjkfd,x,'kks/dslaca/esaftldkmís';okLrfodvkfFkZdxfrfof/dsladsrdksa

dkmi;ksxdjthMhihc<+rdksLi"VdjukgS]gkyghesavkfFkZdlykgdkjifj"knusfy[kk]^^ladsrdksaij,dljljh

fuxkgMkyusijm|ksxladsrdksadslkFk,detcwrlaca/dkirkpyrkgStksHkkjrdsthMhihijvkSlr22izfr'kr

dk;ksxnkudjrkgS]tcfdlsokvksa(thMhihdk60izfr'kr)vkSjd`f"k(thMhihdk18izfr'kr)dkizfrfuf/Rouk

gksusdscjkcjghgSA;gekuukcgqrdfBugSfdlsok{ks=kdsladsrdHkkjrh;thMhihdslkFklaca/ughaj[krsA**

(iz/kkuea=khdhvkfFkZdlykgdkjifj"kn]2019)

mi;qZDrfo'ys"k.kesaX1fofuekZ.klaca/hladsrdksadksn'kkZrkgSvkSjX

2lsokvksavkSjd`f"kdsyhksifd,x,ladsrdksa

dksn'kkZrkgSAm|ksxksadsladsrdldkjkRed:ilslsokvksavkSjd`f"kdslkFklglacaf/rgS@blhizdkjlsokvksavkSjd`f"k

dsyksifd,x,ladsrdksalsthMhihxzksFkjsVijldkjkRedizHkkoiM+sxkAblizdkjiwokZxzgdsldkjkRedgksusdh

vk'kkgSArFkkfi;glpgSfdthvkjMh@thMhihdsvR;f/dvkdyudsfy,,dvifjiw.kZekWMygS;g2-5izfr'kr

dkvR;f/dvkdyulqczefu;u(2019)esaik;kx;kgStksfdviusvk;esafoyksfiriwokZxzagdsdkj.klaHkkfor:i

lsvR;f/dvkdfyrgqvkD;ksafdO;k[;kRedpj(fu;kZr]vk;kr]vkSjÍ.k)thMhihxzksFkesafHkUurkvksadslHkhlzksrksa

dksdojdjrkgSA


rkfydk 2% xyr vuqeku ds Lrj ij iwokZxzg ds izHkko dk fp=k.k

vk/kjjs[kk lsokvksa lfgr d`f"k lfgrlsok rFkk

d`f"k nksuksa ds lkFk

fu;kZr vk;kr Í.k vfrfjDr

HkkjrxifjorZudsckn

0.0277*** 0.0118* 0.0261*** 0.0112** -0.0090**

(6.1757) (1.9719) (5.7183) (2.1128) (-2.0210)

Hkkjr 0.0092** 0.0059* 0.0087** 0.0066** 0.0173***

(2.4151) (1.8999) (2.2617) (2.4470) (7.4551)ifjorZudsckn 0.0042 0.0064* 0.0051 0.0076** 0.0034

(1.0690) (1.9675) (1.3677) (2.4421) (0.8392)

d`f"ko`f¼ 0.0022*** 0.0019*** 0.0021***

(3.8005) (5.2800) (4.6917)

lsoko`f¼ 0.5485*** 0.5094*** 0.6592***

(8.5362) (8.5219) (9.3156)

fu;kZro`f¼ 0.0929* 0.0401 0.0819* 0.0541*

(1.9697) (1.2310) (1.7386) (1.9165)

vk;kro`f¼ 0.1856*** 0.1234*** 0.1991*** 0.1107***

(3.3672) (2.6379) (3.3378) (2.9288)

Í.ko`f¼ 0.0632*** 0.0125 0.0377* 0.0010

(3.3336) (0.8320) (1.9493) (0.0758)

d`f"ko`f¼xifjorZudsckn

-0.0004 -0.0006 -0.0007

(-0.4541) (-1.1001) (-1.0330)

lsoko`f¼xifjorZudsckn

-0.1085 -0.1060 -0.0728

(-0.9346) (-0.9803) (-0.6774)

fu;kZro`f¼xifjorZudsckn

-0.0125 0.0024 -0.0022 -0.0090

(-0.2075) (0.0449) (-0.0368) (-0.1851)

vk;kro`f¼x ifjorZudsckn

-0.1631** -0.0965 -0.1866*** -0.0912*

(-2.4767) (-1.5804) (-2.6874) (-1.7305)

Í.ko`f¼xifjorZudsckn

0.1260*** 0.0720** 0.1409*** 0.0847***

(3.6123) (2.0397) (4.2821) (2.6902)

fLFkj 0.0139*** 0.0026 0.0106*** 0.0006 0.0056*

(4.3905) (1.2230) (3.4347) (0.2944) (1.9176)

lek;ksftrvoyksdu 190 187 190 187 187

0.5443 0.7608 0.6073 0.7962 0.7218

uksV%lHkhdkWyefuEufyf[krifjorZudkvuqekuyxkrsgSa%giT=β0 +β1Xi+β1Xi×T+θ1Indiai+θ2Indiai×T+γT+εiT . gi;krks2002&11vFkok2012&16dhvof/esavkbZns'kdsfy,vkSlro`f¼njthvkbZdscjkcjgSAVhifjorZudsckndhvof/krFkkvU;'kwU;dscjkcjgSAHkkjr]Hkkjrdsfy,,drFkklHkhvU;ns'kksadsfy,'kwU;dscjkcjgSAdkWyeekWMyesami;ksxfd;sx,lgpjkasdspquko}kjkfHkUugSAdks"BdesaVh&LVSfVfLVDlnhxbZA*,**rFkk***Øe'k%10%5%rFkk1%dsfof'k"VLrjdks|ksrdgSA


fp=k 5% Hkkjr vkSj vU; ns'kksa dh vFkZO;oLFkkvksa ds chp lajpukRed varj

6065

7075

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al S

ecto

r

2002-2011 2012-2016

India Other Countries

2030

4050

60%

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2002-2011 2012-2016


010

2030

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not

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ent,

educ

atio

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2002-2011 2012-2016


1012

1416

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Tax

to G

DP

2002-2011 2012-2016


10-22NksM+sx,pjiwokZxzgdklek/kubrukljyughagSftrukfdekWMyesvf/dpjtksM+ukAgtkjksalwpdLo;adksrqjarizfrHkkxhdhrjgizLrqrdjrsgSa ftuesa lsvf/dka'kvkfJrpj jkf'k ijviukvjSf[kdizHkkoMkyrsgSaAmnkgj.kdsfy,vU;ns'kksa

dhrqyukesa]HkkjresadkiQhmPpvukSipkfjd{ks=kjkstxkjrFkkcM+hla[;kesaukStokugSatkscsjkstxkj]vf'kf{krrFkkizf'k{k.kjfgrgSaAd`f"kdkHkkjrdsjkstxkj esa ;ksxnku dk vuqikr vlaxr gS tcfdthMhihesalsokvksadk;ksxnkuvlaxrvuqikresagSA

3545

55%

Ser

vices

Sec

tor i

n G

DP

2002-2011 2012-2016


0.5

11.

5%

Coa

l ren

ts to

GDP

2002-2011 2012-2016


lzksr%fo'ocSadMCY;wMhvkbZMkVkcsl

fVIi.kh%vkSipkfjd{ks=kdsjkstxkjdhfgLlsnkjhdqyxSj&d`f"kjkstxkjdk,dizfr'krgSA15ls24o"kZdschpdhvk;qds;qokvksaesaf'k{kk]jkstxkjrFkkizf'k{k.kesfgLlnkjhdsvuqikrdksn'kkZrkgSAfo'ocSad}kjkcrk;sx,dks;ysdsfdjk,]fo'odherksarFkkmRiknudhdqyykxrijdBksjrFkkdkseydks;ykmRiknunksuksadhdherksadschpfHkUurkgSA;gthMhihdsfy,izkd`frdlalk/uds;ksxnkudsekin.Mdksn'kkZrkgSaA


10-23fp=k5Hkkjrh;vFkZO;oLFkkvU;dseè;lsdqNlajpukRedfHkUurkvksadks fpf=krdjrkgSA;slHkhpj]fuLlansg]thMhihijizHkkoMkyrsgSa]fdUrqlh/ks rkSj ij bUfsavklkuhls ekik ughatkldrkvFkokbudhfuxjkuhughadhtkldrhA

10-24,diw.kZekWMydksvkn'kZdsrkSjij]izR;sdns'kdho`f¼dsfonzwirkiw.kZlapkydksadksHkhxzg.kdjuk pkfg,A tSls] ns'kksa esa laLFkkxr rFkk fof/dlajpuk,algt:iesfHkUugSa]tksns'kksadksmlrjgizHkkfordjrh gSa ftls gelh/s:iesa ugha ekildrsAiwoZuUn(2019)rdZdjrsgSafdblizdkjdsns'kHkjesagksusokysizrhixeuksadksns'kksesa,slhvuoyksfdrfofHkUurkvksads fglkclsns'k fof'k"VizHkkoksadks'kkfeyfd;ktkukpkfgAblizdkjdhfofHkUurkvksa dks fu;fU=kr djus ds mijkUr] mUgksausik;kfdmudsekWMyesa2-4izfr'krdkxyriwoZvuqeku,dlkFkvn`';gksx;kA

10-25 fp=k la- 6 2002&16 dh vof/ esa gekjsizfrekuesalHkhns'kksadhvkSlro`f¼njdksn'kkZrkgSALi"V:ils]ns'kviuhvkSlrthMhiho`f¼njesa'kkunkjfofHkUurk,an'kkZrsgSaAD;ksafdvkSlro`f¼njcnytkrhgS]izR;sdns'kdkvkfJrpjijfHkUuvkSlr^izHkko*gksrkgS]ftlsigysfLFkjfd;ktkukpkfg,Anwljs'kCnksaesa]vkSlro`f¼njesa fHkUurk,a]ns'kksadschpegRoiw.kZlajpukRedfHkUurkvksadkizfrfuf/RodjrhgS]gekjs}kjkO;ogkjdsizHkkodhtkapfd,tkusdscknghftlsfuf'prfd;ktkukpkfg,AblekWMydhmiyfC/;kans'kfof'k"VizHkkoksadslkFk&lkFklVhd:ils;gHkhgSA&ns'kksaesalHkhvukoyksfdrfHkUurk,atksvkfJrpjdksizHkkfordjldrhgSadkfoLrkjdjds;gvkSlro`f¼njesagksusokyhfofHkUurkvksadkfglkcj[krkgSAekWMyesans'kfof'k"VizHkkoksadks'kkfeydjusek=kls]ge,slhvuoyksfdrfHkUurkdsizHkkodksvyxdjldrsgSa]tksiwokZxzgdkfojks/djldrsgSAftldhÅijppkZdhxbZgS]rFkkO;ogkjdsizHkkodkfu"i{kvuqekudjldrsgSA

10-26blhflyflysesa]fp=k7o"kZfof'k"VizHkkoksads ekeysdks izLrqrdjrk gSA ;gpkVZ 2002 ls

2016rdizfro"kZlHkhuewukns'kksadhizfrfuè;kRedvkSlrthMhiho`f¼dksn'kkZrkgSA;gvkSlrfLFkjughajgrh_izfro"kZ]uewukns'kksadhvkSlrthMhiho`f¼fiNyso"kZdhrqyukesavyxrjglsgksrhgSA2009esa]lHkhvkn'kZns'kksadhvkSlrthMhiho`f¼foÙkh;ladVdsdkj.klclsuhpsigaqpxbZ&,degRoiw.kZ rF; ftluslHkhns'kksadks izHkkfor fd;krFkkblfy,ftlsgekjsekWMyesa fu;U=k.kds:iesa'kkfeyfd;ktkukpkfg,Aogo"kZfof'k"VizHkkolHkh,slsvukoyksfdrrF;ksadksfu;fU=krdjsaxstksfn,x,o"kZesalHkhns'kksadksizHkkfordjrsgSarFkkbl izdkj foyksfir pj iwokZxzg ds vU; lzksr dklek/kudjrsgSaA

10-27iq.kkZuane(2019)dslkFklgefresa]ns'kdsfy,fu/kZfjrizHkkoksadks'kkfeydjusgsrqvk/kjHkwrfofunsZ'kksaesala'kks/kufd;kx;kgSvkSjbldsifj.kkelkj.kh3esafn,x,gSAvk/kjjs[kkds:iesaizFkenksdkyefu/kZfjrizHkkodsfcukØe'k%2002&11rFkk2012&16dsfy,ØkllsD'kuyizrhixeudksfpf=krdjrsgSaAHkkjresa,dvksj:fpiw.kZpjHkkjrgsrqizfrpjgSvkSjtksiwoZizn'kZudsvuqlkj2-77»feF;k vuqeku dks n'kkZrs gq, ifjorZu iwoZ 0-92»lsc<+djifjorZui'pkr~3-69»gksx;kgSArhljkdkye]1rFkk2esaVhdk&fVIi.khvFkkZr~ifjorZuiwoZrFkkifjorZui'pkr~Vhdk&fVIif.k;ksadkslkekU;:ilsfeykrkgStSlsfdC;ktdkxq.kkadvcHkkrh;izfrpjrFkkVh]ifjorZui'pkr~izfrpjdschplaca/gSAigysdh Hkkafrghxq.kkadus 2-77»ds feF;kxq.kaddksn'kZ;kgSA

10-28vafredkyerjthgokysfofunsZ'k]ftlesans'kfof'k"Vfu;rizHkko'kkfeygS]dksn'kkZrkgS]vkSjblizdkjlkekUd`rMhvkbZMhekWMydksdk;kZfUordjjgkgSA;gkadkHkkjrifjorZui'pkr~laca/xq.kkadegRoiw.kZughajgtkrkgSAokLroesa]o`f¼esai;kZIrfHkUurkgSftllsHkkjrdhthMhiho`f¼njijdqNlk{;dksNksM+rsgq,xyrvuqekuksdslcwrdkxyrvuqekugSA


fp=k 6% ns'kksa esa vkSlr thMhih o`f¼ esa fHkUurk ds fy, fu;U=k.k dh vko';drkA

0 .02 .04 .06 .08Average GDP Growth

AzerbaijanTajikistanRwanda

CambodiaIndia

MozambiquePanamaArmeniaUganda

TanzaniaGhana

Sierra LeoneCongo, Dem. Rep.

BangladeshSri Lanka

Cote d'IvoireTurkey

Burkina FasoNigerPeru

SingaporeWest Bank and Gaza

PhilippinesIndonesia

MalawiDominican Republic

NamibiaJordanKenya

BelarusGuinea

BotswanaMoldova

MaliKyrgyz Republic

TogoSenegal

LiberiaLebanonMorocco

Costa RicaParaguayMauritius

BeninThailand

HondurasChile

NicaraguaIreland

LesothoKorea, Rep.

Hong Kong SAR, ChinaRomania

NepalPolandKosovo

UruguayBulgariaEswatini

LithuaniaIsraelLatvia

North MacedoniaSlovak Republic

Guinea-BissauAustraliaBurundi

SerbiaMadagascar

New ZealandSouth Africa

Czech RepublicUkraineSweden

El SalvadorHungary

Bosnia and HerzegovinaUnited States

SwitzerlandUnited Kingdom

CroatiaSloveniaBelgiumAustriaSpain

HaitiFinland

GermanyNetherlands

FranceJapan

PortugalItaly

JamaicaGreece

lzksr%fo'ocSadMCY;wMhvkbZMkVkcslA


fp=k 7% oSf'od o`f¼ njksa esa fHkUurk ds fy, fu;U=k.k dh vko';drk

0.02

.04.06

Avera

ge G

DP G

rowth

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011 2012

20132014

20152016

rkfydk 3% fofHkUu ns'kksa esa vUrj ds fu;a=k.k ds lkFk vkSj mlds fcuk vlekU; o`f¼ dk vkdyu

izfrn'kZ dk fooj.k 2002-11 2012-16 ,df=kr ,df=krD;kvFkZfefrfofunsZ'kns'kkasdschpvUrjdksfu;af=krdjrkgS\

ugha ugha ughagk¡vkSjvr%;s,d

lghekWMygS

Hkkjr 0.0092** 0.0369*** 0.0092**

(2.4151) (15.7342) (2.4151)

Hkkjr x ifjoZru i'pkr 0.0277*** 0.0170

(6.1757) (0.9067)

ifjoZrui'pkr 0.0042 -0.0009

(1.0690) (-0.3852)

fu;kZro`f¼nj 0.0929* 0.0805** 0.0929* 0.0500

(1.9697) (2.1591) (1.9697) (1.2545)

vk;kro`f¼nj 0.1856*** 0.0225 0.1856*** 0.0725**

(3.3672) (0.6245) (3.3672) (2.1073)

lk[ko`f¼nj 0.0632*** 0.1892*** 0.0632*** 0.0756***

(3.3336) (6.4593) (3.3336) (3.7686)

lzksr%fo'ocSadMCY;wMhvkbZMkVkcslA


10-29viw.kZekWMyksadhns'kksadsvUrZxrvUrjdksfoukfujks/ddsvuqekudhtksf[kedksfuEufyf[kriz;ksxksalsle>k;kx;kgSAns'kdsfLFkjizHkkoksadsfcukgekjscslykbuC;kSjsdkbLrsekydjrsgq,geus;g ik;k gS fdvusd ns'kksa usviuhthMhihdksxyrtkjhfd;kgSAlkj.kh4]buns'kksadslclSVgsrqifj.kkecrkrsgSArkfydk4esaifj.kkeksadksysusgsrqvcrkfydk3dsdkWye3vkSj4esavcekWMyfofunsZ'kksadslkFk Hkkjrdhtxg'kksf/rlewgds:iesavU;ns'kksadslkFkiquvarfyrfd;ktkrkgSAtcekWMyns'kdsfu;rizHkkoksalsckgjgkstkrkgsrcdbZns'kviuhthMhihdksc<+kp<+kdj;kdedjdscrkrsgStSlkfdØe'k%iSuydvkSj[kesafn[kk;kx;kgSAtcekWMyesans'kdsfu;rizHkkoksadksizLrqrfd;ktkrkgSrcvfrdFku;kvYidFkumlhvkdkjesayqIrgkstkrk gSA;s ifj.kkevU;Lora=kvè;;uksesaHkhlekufu"d"kks±ijcynsrsvk,

gS]fo'ks"k:ilsHkYyk(2019)ftlusteZuhdhthMhihdks¶vfrdFku¸vkSjteSdkdhthMhihdks^vYidFku*ik;kgS]tSlkfdgeekWMyns'kksadschpvUrjdksfn[kk;kgSA

10-30lkj.kh5gekjslSaiyesalHkhns'kksadsifj.kkeksadksn'kkZrhgStgkageusxyrvkdyudksik;kgStksfdfu;rizHkkoksadkslfEefyrdjusdsi'pkr~[kRegksx;kAbuns'kksadhla[;kgekjslSiaydsvk/slsvf/dgSAvkSlrfujis{kLrjtksfdxyro;kuhyxrhgSogfu;rizHkkoksadks'kkfeydjusdsi'pkr~degksrhgSAogcM+k1-68izfr'krfcUnqgSAfu;rizHkkoksadhvuqifLFkfresa]dksbZHkhxyrhls;gfu"d"kZfudkyldrkgSfduhpsfn,xbZlkj.khdslHkhns'kksa esa] ftlesa mUurvFkZ&O;oLFkk,a tSls ;qukbVsMfadaxMe]flaxkiqj]teZuhbR;kfn'kkfeygS]usviusthMhihvuqekudks=kqfViw.kZrjhdslsfn[kk;kgS]tksfd,dvR;arvlaHkkforifjn`';gSA

fu;kZro`f¼xifjorZui'pkr

-0.0125

(-0.2075)

vk;kro`f¼xifjorZui'pkr

-0.1631**

(-2.4767)

lk[ko`f¼xifjorZui'pkr

0.1260***

(3.6123)

fLFkj0.0139*** 0.0181*** 0.0139*** 0.0247***

(4.3905) (7.7800) (4.3905) (7.1371)

voyksdu 95 95 190 190

R2 0.5323 0.5304 0.5443 0.6564

fLFkjizHkko ns'k

fVIi.kh%dkWye1vkSj2fuEufyf[krØkllsD'kuyizfrxeudkvuqekuyxkrsgSagi =β0 +β1Xi +θIndiai +εi.gjns'ki dsfy,]vkfJrvkSjLora=kpjvof/2002&11vkSj2012&16dsvkSlrgSAdkWye3nksuksavof/dssvoyksduksadklewfgddjrkgSavkSjfuEufyf[krizfrxeudkvuqekuyxk;ktkrkgSgiT=β0 +β1Xi+β1Xi×T+θ1Indiai+θ2Indiai×T+γT+εiT.dkWye4HkhifjorZulsigysvkSjifjorZudsi'pkrdsvkdyudksfn[kkrkgSvkSjns'kdsfLFkjizHkkoksaesa'kkfeydjrkgSAg1 ns'ki 2002&16vkSlro`f¼njdhvof/dslekugSAT ifjorZui'pkr~vof/dsfy,lekuHkkjrdsfy,,dvkSjvU;lHkhns'kksadsfy,thjksdslekudjrsgSaAt lkaf[;ddks"VdesamiyC/gS·]··vkSj···Øe'k%10»5»vkSj1»dhfof'k"VLrjdkscrkrsgSaA

___________________________

4-dqNns'kksadsfy,ns'kdsfy,fu;rizHkkoksadks'kkfeydjusdscknHkh;|fixq.kkadmYys[kuh;gSrFkkfiosvkdkjesa/hjs&/hjs?kVtkrsgSaA


rkfydk 4% fcuk fu;r izHkkoksa ds v'kq¼ thMhih nsus okys ns'kksa vkSj 'kqf¼dj.k ds ifj.kkeks dks fLFkj izHkko esa tksM+ukA

iSuy d% ns'k ds fLFkj izHkkoksa ds fcuk thMhih dks vfrdFku fn[kkus okys ns'k

;wukbVsM fdaxMe ckaxykns'k teZuh

fcuk,IkQbZ(xyr)

,IkQbZ(lgh)

fcuk,IkQbZ(xyr)

,IkQbZ(lgh)

fcuk,IkQbZ(xyr)

,IkQbZ(lgh)

ns'kxifjorZui'pkr0.0163*** 0.0131 0.0389*** 0.0289 0.0092** 0.0051

(4.3289) (0.7077) (8.7502) (1.5596) (2.4795) (0.2742)

voyksdu 190 190 190 190 190 190

R2 0.5298 0.6552 0.5383 0.6624 0.5315 0.6536

iSuy [k%& ns'k ds fu;r izHkkoksa ds fcuk thMhih dks vYidFku fn[kkus okys ns'k

flaxkiwj nf{k.k vIkzQhdk csfYt;e

fcuk,IkQbZ(xyr)

,IkQbZ(lgh)

fcuk,IkQbZ(xyr)

,IkQbZ(lgh)

fcuk,IkQbZ(xyr)

,IkQbZ(lgh)

ns'kxifjorZui'pkr

-0.0226*** -0.0229 -0.0116*** -0.0130 -0.0135*** -0.0100

(-8.0765) (-1.2451) (-3.6358) (-0.6997) (-4.3818) (-0.5377)

voyksdu 190 190 190 190 190 190

R2 0.5334 0.6592 0.5292 0.6552 0.5335 0.6544

fVIi.kh%izR;sdns'kdsfy,]igykdkWyeekWMydkvuqekuyxkrkagSgiT=β0 +β1Xi +β1Xi ×T +θ1Countryi +θ2Countryi ×T +γT +εiT.nwljkdkWyeekWMydkvuqekuyxkrkgSgiT =βi +γt +β1XiT +θCountryi ×T +εit,tksfdns'kdsfu;rizHkkoksaesagSAifjorZui'pkr~vof/dsfy,T ,ddscjkcjdjrkgSvkSjifjorZui'pkr~vof/]esathjksgSA,dlslanHkZns'kesa,dcjkcjvkSjvU;ns'kksadsfy,thjksdscjkcjgksrkgSAt- lkaf[;ddks"BdesamiyC/gSA·]··vkSjØe'k%10»]·5»vkSj1»dsfof'k"VLrjdkstkjhdjrkgSA


rkfydk 5% fu;r izHkkoksa ds fcuk =kqfViw.kZ thMhih izLrqr djus okys ns'k vkSj ns'kksa ds chp fofHkUurk gsrq fu;a=kk.ks ls fudyk lq/kj xyr&vuqeku dh lgh dh lgh fd xbZ jkf'k (xq.kkad esa vUrj)

ns'k x ifjorZu xq.kkad i'pkr

ns'kfcuk ,IkQ bZ ds

xq.kkad(xyr)

,IkQ bZ ds lkFk xq.kkad(lgh)

D;k xq.kkad ,IkQ bZ ekWMy esa egRo

j[krk gS\

;fn gk¡ rks D;k vkdkj NksVk gksxk

¶=kqfViw.kZ vuqeku¸ dh jkf'k esa

la'kks/u (xq.kkadks esa varj] »)

1 c:UMh 0.0404*** 0.0113 ugha 4.04

2 ckaXykns'k 0.0389*** 0.0289 ugha 3.89

3 gaxjh 0.0385*** 0.0209 ugha 3.85

4 jksekfu;k 0.0334*** 0.0187 ugha 3.34

5 fl;jkfy;ksu 0.0309*** 0.018 ugha 3.09

6 Lyksosfu;k 0.0255*** 0.0138 ugha 2.55

7 ?kkuk 0.0229*** 0.0021 ugha 2.29

8 ;qukbVsMfdaxMe 0.0163*** 0.0131 ugha 1.63

9 vk;jySaM 0.0495*** 0.0338* gk¡ gk¡ 1.57

10 dkslksoks 0.0152*** 0.0103 ugha 1.52

11 dsU;k 0.0147*** 0.0163 ugha 1.47

12 eksyMksok 0.0133*** 0.0042 ugha 1.33

13 fdjfxtx.kjkT; 0.0130** 0.0145 ugha 1.30

14 xqfu;k&fclko 0.0123* 0.0208 ugha 1.23

15 gSrh 0.0116*** 0.0185 ugha 1.16

16 cqYxkfj;k 0.0099** -0.0006 ugha 0.99

17 teZuh 0.0092** 0.0051 ugha 0.92

18 fudkjkxqvk 0.0088** 0.0197 ugha 0.88

19 lsusxy 0.0079*** 0.0171 ugha 0.79

20 Lisu 0.0076* 0.0021 ugha 0.76

21 U;wthySaM 0.0058** 0.0118 ugha 0.58

22 ukbtj 0.0598*** 0.0551*** gk¡ gk¡ 0.47

23dksUxks]Mse]x.kjkT;

0.0354*** 0.0339* gk¡ gk¡ 0.15

24 vtjcStu -0.0515*** -0.0474** gk¡ gk¡ -0.41

25gkaxdkax,l,vkj]phu

-0.0058** -0.0099 ugha -0.58

26 fiQfyfiaUl -0.0076** 0.0045 ugha -0.76

27 ukehfc;ka -0.0091** -0.0059 ugha -0.91

28 cksVLokuk -0.0094*** -0.0037 ugha -0.94

29 gksUMqjl -0.0095*** -0.0037 ugha -0.95

30 fiQuySaM -0.0097*** -0.0092 ugha -0.97

31 tek;dk -0.0101* 0.0096 ugha -1.01


32 lfcZ;k -0.0105*** -0.021 ugha -1.05

33Mkeufdux.kjkT;

-0.0108*** 0.0031 ugha -1.08

34 nf{k.kvkÚhdk -0.0116*** -0.013 ugha -1.16

35 ekWfjf'k;l -0.0121*** -0.004 ugha -1.21

36 jokUMk -0.0122*** -0.0118 ugha -1.22

37 dkLVkfjdk -0.0131*** -0.0058 ugha -1.31

38 csfYt;e -0.0135*** -0.01 ugha -1.35

39 cqjdhukiQklks -0.0138** -0.0078 ugha -1.38

40 Jhyadk -0.0146*** -0.0073 ugha -1.46

41osLVcSad,oaxkt+k

-0.0501*** -0.0349* gk¡ gk¡ -1.52

42 Lyksokdx.kjkT; -0.0164*** -0.0087 ugha -1.64

43 ;wuku -0.0187*** -0.0164 ugha -1.87

44 usiky -0.0221*** -0.0079 ugha -2.21

45 flaxkiqj -0.0226*** -0.0229 ugha -2.26

46 is: -0.0233*** -0.0159 ugha -2.33

47 ekyh -0.0241*** -0.0223 ugha -2.41

48 tkjMu -0.0274*** -0.0252 ugha -2.74

49 yscuku -0.0281*** -0.0302 ugha -2.81

50 dacksfM;k -0.0351*** -0.0084 ugha -3.51

51 vjesfu;k -0.0465*** -0.0306 ugha -4.65

fVIi.kh%izR;sdns'kdsfy,genksekWMyksadkvuqekuyxkrsgSa]giT =β0 +β1Xi +β1Xi ×T +θ1Countryi +θ2Countryi ×T +γT +εiT,vkSjgiT =βi +γt +β1XiT +θCountryi ×T +εit,ns'kdsfLFkjizHkkoksadscknokykvkSjmudsfcukAifjorZui'pkr~vof/dsfy,T,dcjkcjgSvkSjvU;FkkthjksAns'klanHkZesa,dcjkcjvkSjvU;ns'kksadsfy,thjksdsgSAfujarjpjjkf'kdkslaiw.kZvkSjifjorZui'pkr~vof/esavkSlrfd;ktkrkgS·]··vkSjØe'k%10»]·5»vkSj1»dsfof'k"VLrjdksfn[kkrkgSAvkf[kjhdkWyeigysvuqekulsxq.kadksadkslwphc¼djrkgS;fnnqljsdkyedkxq.kkdfujFkZdgS];fnnqljsvuqekudkxq.kkadfof'k"V(delsde10»)gksrksvkSjnksuksaxq.kkadksdschpdkvUrjgSA

iSuy vkadM+ksa dh xR;kRedrk% ns'k ds fof'k"V izo`fÙk ds fy; ,d la'kksf/r MhvkbZMh

10-31gkykafd Åij izLrqr fd;k x;k] MhvkbZMhekWMyfoyqIrpjiwokZxzgdstksf[kedksdedjrkgS]gekjsorZekuuewuslsiwjhrjglarq"Vugksrsgq,Hkh]gesavHkhHkhlekarj:>kuksdhO;oLFkkdslkFkla?k"kZdjukpkfg,AtSlsfdiw.kZuane(2019)esardZfn;kx;kgS]vxj;gO;oLFkklslarq"VughagSrks]delsdefofunsZ'kesa,d:>kujs[kk'kkfeydjysuhpkfg,Agekjs cslykbuekWMy,dVsªaMykbudhlekos'kdsfy,o';d;gvkughagS]D;ksafdmldh fliQZ nks le; lhek gSa&&iwoZ ifjorZuvkSj

ifjorZuvof/]gkykadh]geVsªaMMk;;ukfeDldksykxwdjusdsfy,]gjns'ko"kZdks,dO;fDrxrvoyksduekudjiSuyMsVkfofunsZ'kdkmi;ksxdjldrsgSaA

10-32iw.kkZuane (2019) n'kkZrs gS fd ,d iSuyvkadM+kvuqekuesa]ns'kfuf'prizHkko]o"kZfuf'prizHkko] vkSj ns'k fof'k"V :>ku] ij vuqHkkxh;izrhixeuesaizkIrvlkekU;o`f¼njdhiwjhrjglsns'kksadsvarj:>kuykbuksa}kjkO;k[;kdhxbZgSAVscy6esageiSuyvkadM+kijgekjsla'kksf/rMhvkbZMhekWMy]tksthMhihfodklnjdksgjns'k


Table 6: Estimation of abnormal growth with panel dynamics, includingcountry-specific trends

fLFkj izHkko fcuk

ns'k fLFkj izHkko

of"kZd fLFkj izHkko

ns'k ,oa o"kZfu;u izHkko

ns'k vkSj okf"kZd

fLFkj izHkko] Hkkjr esa izo`fÙk

ns'k vkSj okf"kZd

fLFkj izHkko ns'k ds :>ku

Hkkjr cnyko ds i'pkr~

0.0221 0.0198 0.0199 0.0166 -0.0144 -0.0138(1.4838) (1.4930) (1.3629) (1.3057) (-0.6535) (-0.6522)

Hkkjr0.0193** 0.0209**

(2.2456) (2.4765)

cnykodsckn-0.0006 -0.0016 0.0022 0.0019 -0.0185

(-0.3777) (-1.1147) (0.6384) (0.5477) (-0.4221)Hkkjrx blle;izo`fÙk

0.0041*

(1.7200)

fu;kZrlao`f¼nj0.0670*** 0.0601*** 0.0587*** 0.0471*** 0.0475*** 0.0491***

(8.1153) (7.8152) (7.1055) (6.2332) (6.2844) (6.6301)vk;krlao`f¼nj

0.0936*** 0.0867*** 0.0839*** 0.0731*** 0.0729*** 0.0703***

(11.4934) (11.6266) (10.3110) (10.0078) (9.9931) (9.5350)

lk[klao`f¼nj0.0705*** 0.0529*** 0.0645*** 0.0422*** 0.0424*** 0.0355***

(13.7564) (10.6660) (12.5500) (8.6036) (8.6377) (6.8477)voyksdu 1349 1349 1349 1349 1349 1349lek;ksftrR2 0.3810 0.5102 0.4050 0.5507 0.5514 0.5897ns'kfu;rizHkko ugha gk¡ ugha gk¡ gk¡ gk¡

o"kZfu;rizHkko ugha ugha gk¡ gk¡ gk¡ gk¡

le;:>ku 'kwU; 'kwU; 'kwU; 'kwU; Hkkjr ns'k

fVIi.kh%gjdkWye2002&16rddsftuns'kksadsokf"kZdvkadM+syf{irgS]dkiSuyvkadM+sijizrhixeufo'ys"k.kgSAdkWye1esadksbZfuf'prizHkkolfEefyrughagS]dkWye11ns'kfuf'prizHkko]dkWye111o"kZfuf'prizHkkovkSjdkWye IVnksuksafuf'prizHkkoAdkWye6nksuksafuf'prizHkkovkSjHkkjrdsfy,,dvyxle;:>kuvfrfjDr'kkfeygSAvkfJrpjthMhihdsokf"kZdo`f¼njgSAVhvkadM+sesafn,x,gSA·]··vkSj···Øe'ka%10izfr'kr]5izfr'krvkSjAizfr'krdsegRodksn'kkZrsgSA

o"kZdks,dO;fDrxrvoyksduekursgq,]igysdstSlslekuLora=kpjiqu%gkflydjusdkvuqekuyxkrsgSAdkWye,dfuf'prizHkko;kns'kds:>kuds fcuk ,dvk/kj js[kk gSA bldkWyeds ifj.kkeks dk lqczef.k;u (2019)ds ,d leku iSuyvkadM+sdslkFkrqyukdhtkldrhgS]ftlesafliQZ,d mYys[kuh; varj gS&i'pdfFkr vè;;u ifj.kkeksadhiwoZfu/kZj.kesalao`f¼njdscnysLrjdkmi;ksxfd;kgSAysfdugelao`f¼njdkmi;ksxdjukpqursgS]D;ksafdysoyesaftupjksdkiz;ksxfd;kgS]ogxSj&fLFkjgSAtcpjc<+rkgSLrjksaesa

,dizrhixeulgtifj.kkensldrkgSA(xks;yvkSjdqekj]2019)gekjsfofunsZ'kesafu;rxfrdsfcukcslykbuekWMyHkh]ifjorZui'pkrHkkjrdsegRoiw.kZxq.kaddksizkIrdjusesafoiQyjgrkgSA

10-33bldsvykok]cslykbuiSuyMsVk fofunsZ'kksalsns'k;ko"kZdsfuf'prizHkkoksadks'kkfeydjuslsC;ktdspjxq.kkaddsvkdkjdksdedjrkgS]HkkjrXifjorZui'pkr~Avarr%Hkkjr:>kuvFkokizR;sdns'kgsrq:>kudklekos'kugksusijxq.kkadÍ.kkRedgkstkrkgS(;|fifiQjHkhmrukmYys[kuh;ughagS)


,d funkudkjh fo'ys"k.k

10-34gekjk thMhih ekWMy Hkkjrh; thMhih dsfdlhHkhxyrvuqekuksadksn'kkZusesavleFkZgSAgeblfo'ys"k.kdkthMhihvuqekui¼frdhfdlhdehdkslwfprdjusokyhladsrksadhtkapdjusgemilagkjdjrsgSaAlqcze.;u,dmi;ksxhfunkudkiz;ksxdjrsgSa]ftlesathMhihfodklnjdksvU;ladsrdksa]ftudhdk;Ziz.kkyhesadksbZHkhcnykougqvkgS]dslkFklglacf¼rfd;kgSAla{ksiesa]bldk;Ziz.kkyhesa^lafnX/*pj&lao`f¼njdksdbZvU;fo'oluh;pjdslkFklg&laca/djuk'kfeygSA

10-35fp=k81980&84ls'kq:gksdsikaplkydhdkykof/kdsvkfFkZdxfrfof/;ksadsdbZladsrksavkSjthMhihlao`f¼njdschpdslglaca/dksn'kkZrsgSAokLroesauohurevof/esavk/slsT;knklglaca/ cnyrs gSA fdUrq ladsrksa ds fy, 2011 dsdk;Ziz.kkyh la'kks/u vkSj ml ds ifj.kkeh thMhihdkxyr&vuqekudjukpkfg, fd2011lsigysD;kbuladsrksadkthMhihdslkFk,dLFkkbZvkSjiwokZuqes;laaca/jgkgS;kughaAgkykafd]vrhresa]buladsrksavkSjthMhihfodklnjdschpdklaca/LFkkbZ ls dkslksa nwj jgk gSA 2011 ds dk;Ziz.kkyh

la'kks/udsigysHkh;slg&laca/vkSjudsladsrcnysgSAbucnykuksadksVscy7esalkjxfHkZr}kjkgSA

10-36;fnbuladsrksa2011esadk;Ziz.kkyhla'kks/kudscknldkjkRedlsudkjkRedlsgVdjiwoZesathMhihdslkFk,dldkjkRedlaca/iznf'kZrdjrsrks;sy{k.kfparkdkdkj.kcursAexj]buladsrdksavkSjthMhiho`f¼dschpdslglaca/iwoZesatcdk;Ziz.kkyhla'kks/uughagq, Fks rcHkhiyVusdsy{.kn'kkZrsFksA

10-37mnkgj.kdsfy,fctyhdsmiHkksxdkthMhihdslkFk1980&84esaudkjkRedlglaca]1985&89esaldkjkRedlglaca/esaudkjkRed]2000&2004esaldkjkRedvkSj2005&09esaudkjkRedlglacaf/rfd;kx;kgSAleku:ilsokLrfodfu;kZro`f¼dksthMhihdslkFk1980&84esaudkjkRed]1985&2004esa ldkjkRed vkSj 2005&09 esa udkjkRed :ils lglacaf/r fd;k x;kA Li"V gS fd udkjkRedlglaca/x.kdvrhreasvlekU;ughaFkkA10bulglaca/ksdsekud fopyudkmi;ksxdjrs gq,]fof'k"V:ilsn'kkZrsgSA

____________________________

5- ;gizfØ;klqczef.k;u(2019)dsvuq:igStksnksvfo/;ks%2001&11vkSj2016esalac/cukrkgSAlqczef.k;u(2019)esami;qÙkladsrdfuEudsfodklnjgS%fctyhdh[kir]nksifg;kokguksadhfcØhok.kft;ddhokguksadhfcØh]VSªDVjdhfcØh]ok;w;k=kh;krk;kr]fons'khi;ZVdksadkvkxeu]jsyekyHkkMk;krk;kr]vkS|ksfxdmRiknddklwpdkad]vkS|ksfxdmRiknddklwpdkad(fofueZk.k)]vkS|ksfxdmRiknddklwpdkad(miHkksDrkoLrq)]iVªksy[kir]lhesaV]LVhy]lEiw.kZokLrfodlk[k]m|ksxesaokLrfodlk[k]oLrqvkSjlsokvksadkfu;kZrvkSjoLrqvkSjlsokvksadkvk;kr

fp=k 8% ladsrdksa vkSj thMhih c<+r ds chp ,sfrgkfld :i ls lglaca/k (lqczef.k;u (2019) esa iz;qDr J`a[kykvksa ls esy [kkrk gSA

Electricity

Petroleum

Cement

IIP (general)

IIP (manufacturing)

ExportsImports

Credit

Railway freight

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

1985-89

1980-84

Electricity

Petroleum

Cement

IIP (general)

IIP (manufacturing)

Exports

Imports

Credit

Railway freight

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

1990-94

1985-89


Electricity

PetroleumCement

IIP (general)

IIP (manufacturing)

Exports

Imports

Credit

Air passengers

Steel

Railway freight

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.01995-99

1990-94

ElectricityPetroleum

Cement

IIP (general)

IIP (manufacturing)Exports Imports

Credit Air passengers

Foreign touristsSteel

Railway freight

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

2005-09

2000-04

Electricity

Petroleum

Cement

IIP (general)

IIP (manufacturing)

Exports

Imports

Credit

Air passengers Foreign tourists

Steel

Railway freight

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

2000-04

1995-99

Electricity

Petroleum

Cement

IIP (general)IIP (manufacturing)

Exports

Imports

Credit

Air passengers

Foreign tourists

Steel

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

2010-14

2005-09

lzksr%vkbZ,e,iQoYMZbdksuksfedvkmVyqdlsthMhihfodkl]fo'ocSadMCY;wMhvkbZMkVkcsl]vkjchvkbZvkSjlacaf/krla?kea=kky;MkVkcslls{ks=kokjladsrd

fVIi.kh%lglaca/izR;sdladsrksadkokLrfodlao`f¼njvkSjokLrfodthMhihlao`f¼njdseè;esalaxf.krgSA

rkfydk 7% thMhih o`f¼ ds lkFk {ks=kh; ladsrd o`f¼ ds lglaca/ ds bfrgkl esa dbZ ckj iyVus ds fpUgksa dk lk{;A

{ks=kh; ladsr o`f¼ ,oa thMhih o`f¼ ds chp lglaca/ ds fpUgladsrd 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14fu;kZr – + + + + – +vk;kr + + + – + – +Í.k + – + + + + –fo|qr – + – – + – +isVªksfy;e – + + + + – –jsyeky&HkkM+k + – – + + +lhesaV + + – + + + –LVhy – – + + –Ïks=k%vkbZ,e,iQfo'ovkfFkZdifjn`';lsyhxbZthMhiho`f¼(lqczkef.k;u(2019)esayhxbZJ`a[kyklsesy[kkrhgS]fo'ocSadMCY;wMhvkbZMkVkcslvkjchvkbZ,oalacaf/rdsanzh;ea=kky;ksadsvkadM+savkadM+ksalsfy,x,{ks=kh;ladsrdA

fVIi.kh%2011esathMhihizfØ;kla'kks/ulsigyslglaca/dsfoorZudsfpUgksadksn'kkZrsgq,fpfUgrlSyA


fp=k 9% le; ds lkFk&lkFk thMhih o`f¼ ,oa {ks=kh; ladsrdksa ds chp lglaca/ esa fHkUurk

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1980

-82

1983

-85

1986

-88

1989

-91

1992

-94

1995

-97

1998

-00

2001

-03

2004

-06

2007

-09

2010

-12

2013

-15

Exports Imports Credit Air passengers Foreign tourists Steel

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1980

-82

1983

-85

1986

-88

1989

-91

1992

-94

1995

-97

1998

-00

2001

-03

2004

-06

2007

-09

2010

-12

2013

-15

Electricity Petroleum Cement IIP (general) IIP (manufacturing) Railway freight

Ïks=k%vkbZ,e,iQfo'ovkfFkZdifjn`';lsyhxbZthMhiho`f¼(lqczef.k;u2019)esayhxbZJ`a[yklsesy[kkrhgS)]fo'ocSadMCY;wMhvkbZMkVkcsl]vkjchvkbZ,oalacaf/rdsanzh;ea=kky;ksadsvkadM+ksalsfy,x,{ks=kh;ladsrdA

fp=k 10% ladsrdksa ,oa thMhih o`f¼ ds chp lglaca/ esa mPp vfLFkjrk

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Elec

trici

ty

Petro

leum

Cem

ent

IIP

(gen

eral

)

IIP

(man

ufac

turin

g)

Expo

rts

Impo

rts

Cre

dit

Air

pass

enge

rs

Fore

ign

tour

ists

Stee

l

Rai

lway

frei

ght

Ïks=k%vkbZ,e,iQfo'ovkfFkZdifjn`';lsyhxbZthMhiho`f¼(lqczef.k;u2019)esayhxbZJ`a[yklsesy[kkrhgS)]fo'ocSadMCY;wMhvkbZMkVkcsl]vkjchvkbZ,oalacaf/rdsanzh;ea=kky;ksadsvkadM+ksalsfy,x,{ks=kh;ladsrdA

fVIi.kh%izR;sd{ks=kdsfy,okf"kZd{ks=kh;o`f¼vkSjthMhiho`f¼dschplglaca/dhx.kukrhuo"kZdhvof/%1980&82]1983&85vkSjblhizdkj2013&15rdesalsizR;sdo"kZdhxbZgSAmi;qDrpkVZbuckjglglaca/ksadsekudfopyudksn'kkZrkgSA


10-38blckrdksè;kuesaj[krsgq,fd;sladsrd2011lsigysHkhthMhihof¼dslkFkfLFkjlaca/iznf'kZrughadjrsgSa] 2011dscknHkhmUgsa xyrvuqekudk funkudjusds fy,HkhmUgsa HkyhHkkafrrS;kjughafd;kx;kgSAgeblifj.kkedksvf/dvkSipkfjd:iesablizdkjlsLFkkfirdjrsgSaA2011lsiwoZbuladsrdksadhiqokZdyu'kfDrdhtkapdjusdsfy,Hkkjrdsfy,vk;krksa]fu;kZrksavkSjÍ.kesaokLrfodof¼dslaca/esaokLrfodthMhih of¼dkßkldjnsrsgSaArqyukdsfy,]geeè;e&vk;okyslHkhns'kksadsfy,ßkldksnksgjkrsgSa]vkSjvarr%viuslSaiyesalHkh ns'kksads fy,ßkldks nksgjkrsgSaAgedsoy2002ls2001rddsghvoyksduksadks'kkfeydjrsgSaftllsfdi¼friqujh{k.klsiwoZladsrdksadhO;k[;kRed'kfDrdhtkapdhtkldsArkfydkesaifj.kkeizLrqrfd,x,gSaA

10-39;gvk'p;ZtudgSfdburhuladsrdksaesalsdksbZHkhladsrd2011lsigysHkkjresathMhiho`f¼dhO;k[;kdjusesalkaf[;dh;:ilsegRoiw.kZughagS]tcfdvU;ns'ksadsfy,osegRoiw.kZizrhrgksrsgSaAbldsvykok]buladsrdksa}kjkHkkjrh;thMhiho`f¼esavarjdsdsoyuxO;10-5izfr'krdhgh

O;k[;kdhtkrhgSAbldsfoijhr]nwljsns'kksadsfy,R240izfr'krls63izfr'krdschpgSAifj.kke2011lsigysHkhHkkjrh;thMhiho`f¼dhO;k[;kdjusesabuladsrdksadhvleFkZrkdhiqf"VdjrsgSaAHkkjresathMhiho`f¼dkrjhdkvkfFkZddk;Zdykids iwokZdyudj ldus okys dqNsd ladsrdksa dhrqyukesadkiQhvf/dtfVygS]vkSjblfy,]buladrdksadsvk/kkjijghxyrvuqekudknkokdjukmfprughagSA

10-40iz/kuea=kh dh vkfFkZd lykgdkj ifj"kn ustwu] 2019dhviuh fjiksVZ esa uSnkfudizfØ;kesad`f"k&vkSj lsokvksa&vk/kfjr ladrdksa ds egRo dksmtkxjfd;kgS(iz/kuea=khvkfFkZdlykgdkjifj"kn]2019)Avr%blckjged`f"kvkSjlsok{ks=kksalsladsrdksalfgroSdfYidladsrdksadslewgdslkFkuhps,dlglaca¼js[kkfp=kizLrqrdjrsgSaAge;gikrsgSa]tSlkfdfp=k11esan'kkZ;kx;kgS]fdi¼friqujh{k.klsigysvkSjbldsi'pkr~nksuksaghfLFkfr;ksaesavusdladrdksadkthMhihdslkFkldkjkRed:ilslglaca/gksrkgS(blrF;dsckotwnfdblizdkjlglaca/ksadhizo`fÙkvarjfufgr:ilsvfLFkjgksrhgSrFkk;sdsoythMhihdslgtiwokZdyd

rkfydk 8% lqczef.k;u (2019) ladardksa }kjk ifjorZu iwoZ O;k[;kf;r thMhih of¼% Hkkjr vkSj vU; ns'k

Hkkjr eè;e&vk; okys ns'k lHkh ns'kI II III IV V

fu;kZro`f¼nj -0.2009 0.0631** 0.0431 0.0661*** 0.0398**

(-0.7939) (2.1967) (1.4057) (3.8160) (2.3403)vk;kro`f¼nj 0.0870 0.1080*** 0.0747** 0.1054*** 0.0750***

(0.4671) (4.1062) (2.3428) (6.4254) (4.4388)Í.ko`f¼nj 0.2077 0.0598*** 0.0419*** 0.0618*** 0.0392***

(0.7735) (5.2346) (4.2707) (6.6422) (4.8548)lrr 0.0661** 0.0286*** 0.0312*** 0.0225*** 0.0254***

(2.6757) (10.8528) (7.6420) (9.9046) (6.9846)voyksdu 10 364 364 872 872R2 0.1054 0.4125 0.5813 0.3934 0.6293ns'k,iQbZ ugha ugha gk¡ ugha gk¡ns'k,iQbZ ugha ugha gk¡ ugha gk¡lewgc¼ ugha ns'k ns'k ns'k ns'kfVIi.kh%LraHk1o"kZ2002&11dhvof/dsfy,Hkkjrdsfu;kZr]vk;krvkSjÍ.kof`¼njijbldhthMhiho`f¼esaßkln'kkZrkgSALRkaHkIIfo'ocSaddsoxhZdj.kdsvuqlkjlHkheè;e&vk;okysns'kksa(HkkjrdksNksM+dj)ßklnksgjkrkgSAvkSjLRkaHkIVlSaiyesalHkhns'kksa(HkkjrdksNksM+dj)dsfy,ßkln'kkZrkgSALRkaHkIIIvkSjV Øe'k%LRkaHkIIvkSjIV esaßklnksgjkrkgSrFkkvfrfjDr:ilsns'kvkSjo"kZdsvk/kjijfu;rizHkko'kkfeydjrkgSALRkaHkIIvkSjV dstfj,]Lrjh;iz;klns'k}kjklqn`<+vkSjlewc¼gSAVh&vkadM+sfuf{kIrokD;ksaesafn,x,gSaA***vkSj***Øe'k%10izfr'kr]5izfr'krvkSj1izfr'krdsegRoiw.kZvarjdksn'kkZrsgSaA


fp=k 11% vf/dka'k d`f"k&vkSj lsokvksa ls lacaf/r ladsrd 2001&11 vkSj 2012&16 esa thMhih o`f¼ ds lkFk ldkjkRed :i ls lglaaca¼ gksrs gSaA

Ïksr%vkbZ,e,iQoYMZbdkWukfedvkmVyqd(lqczef.k;e2019esaJà[kykvksadsvuq:i)oYMZcSadMCY;wMhvkbZMkVkcsl]vkjchbZls{ks=kdladrdksa]vkSjlacaf/rdsUnzh;ea=kky;MkVkcsllsthMhiho`f¼A

fVIi.kh%ladsrdfuEuorifjHkkf"krfd,x,gSd`f"k{ks=kdsladsrdksads[kk|kUuksa]okf.kfT;diQlyksa]eRL;ikyu]nw/kvkSjvaMksadsmRiknuesaokf"kZdof`¼njsa'kkfeygSaAfofuek.kZ{ks=kdsladrdksaesadks;yk]izkd`frdxSl],ua,Mih205moZjd]vkSjvkbZvkbZih(lkekU;)dsmRiknuesaokf"kZdnjsa'kkfeygSaAlsok{ks=kdsladsrdksaesafuEufyf[krokf"kZdnjsa'kkfeygSaA%Hkkjrh;jsyijekSfyd;kf=k;ksadhla[;k]Hkkjrh;lM+dekxks±ijizfrfdyksehVj<ks,tkusokykHkkjekyHkkM+k]Hkkjrh;lM+dekxks±ijpyusokys;kf=k;ksadhizfrfdyksehVjla[;k]gksVyd{kksadhla[;k]Hkqxrkufd;kx;kldychekizfhe;e]lkWÝVos;jdhfcØh]rFkkjsLVksjsaVvkSjgksVyksaijfd;kx;k[kpZ'kkfeygSA

FoodgrainCommercial crops

Fisheries

Milk

Eggs

CoalNatural gas

Vehicles

Fertiliser

IIP (general)

Railway passengers

Road transport -freight

Road transport -passengers

HotelsInsurance

Softwares

Restaurants

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

2012-2016

2001-2011

gksrsgSa)AtSlkfdfp=k11esan'kkZ;kx;kgS]cgqrlsladsrdtksdk;Zi¼frdsla'kks/ulsiwoZvkSji'pkr~thMhih ds lkFk ldkjkRed :i ls lglacaf/r gS(blrF;dsckotwnfdblizdkjdslglaca/iwoZlsghvLFkk;hgksrsgSvkSjthMhihdsek=kukSflf[k,vuqekudrkZghgS_tSlkfdiwoZesardZfd;kx;kgSA

10-41blckrdksè;kuesaj[krsgq,fdvkfFkZddk;Zdyki vkSj thMhih o`f¼ ds {ks=kd ladsrdksads chp lglaca/ ,sfrgkfld :i ls vfLFkj jgkgS] vf/d mi;ksxh funku iqjkuh thMhih Jà[kykvksadslkFk fdlhfu;rladsrddslglaca/vkSjubZthMhihJà[kykvksadslkFkmlhladsrddslglaca/dhrqyukdjukgSAnksuksaewY;ksaesa fofo/rklsubZi¼frdslkFk,dleL;kdkladsrfeysxkArFkkfi]tSlkfdfp=k12lqLi"V:ilsn'kkZrkgS]thMhih

dslkFkladsrddklaca/ki¼friqujh{k.kekSVsrkSjijvifjofrZrgSA

10-42fp=k12;gHkhlq>konsrkgSfd;fn]2011dsctk;]geuslglaca/ksaesa mrkj&p<+koksads fy,i`Fkddjusokyh js[kkds:iesa 2010;k2012dkiz;ksxfd;kgksrk]rksgeusi`Fkddjusokyhjs[kkds:iesa2011dhrjgdsghifj.kkeksaijigqapsgksrsAoLrqr%]oSn~;ukFku}kjkfd,x,,dvè;;u(2019)ls;girkpyrkgS]^^tcgedkxtksaesavkadM+ksadks,do"kZiwoZi'pkr~%&2010lsiwoZvkSj2010lsi'pkr~];k2012lsiwoZvkSj2012lsi'pkr~esafoHkkftrdjrsgSa&rksgesamrkj&p<+kovkSjÍ.kkRedlglaca/ksadsoSlsghifj.kkeizkIrgksrsgSa]**blls;girkpyrkgSfdi¼friqujh{k.ko"kZ]2011dsckjsesadqNHkhvya?;ughagSA


fp=k 12% ubZ Jà[kykvksa ls leku izdkj dh fiNyh thMhih Jà[kykvksa ds lkFk ladsrdksa dk laca/

Ïksr%vkbZ,e,iQoYMZbdkWukfedvkmVyqd(lqczef.k;u2019esaJa`[kykvksadsvuq:i)oYMZcSadMCY;wMhvkbZMkVkcsl]vkjchvkbZls{ks=kdladsrdksa]vkSjlacaf/rdsUnzh;ea=kky;MkVkcsllsthMhiho`f¼A

fVIi.kh%okLrfod{ks=kdo`f¼vkSjokLrfodthMhiho`f¼dschplglaca/dhizFkex.kuko"kZ2004&05vk/kjdslkFkiqjkuhi¼frdsvarxZrthMhiho`f¼dkmi;ksxdjds]bldsckno"kZ2011&12vk/kjdslkFkubZi¼frdsvarxZrthMhiho`f¼dslkFkdhxbZFkhAo"kZ2001&11dsfy,iqjkuhvkSjubZnksuksaghJà[kyk,amiyC/gSaA

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Cor

rela

tion

with

new

GD

P se

ries

Correlation with old GDP series

fp=k 13% lkekftd fodkl ladsrd

1012

1416

1820

% U

nder

nour

ishe

d P

opul

atio

n

2002-2011 2012-2016


6570

7580

85%

Ele

ctric

ity A

cces

s

2002-2011 2012-2016



Source: Purnanandam (2019)

6070

8090

% R

ural

Pop

ulat

ion

with

Wat

er

2002-2011 2012-2016


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,oaLokLF;dkcksjksehVjgSAvr%;gcgqregRoiw.kZgSfdthMhihdkstgkardlaHkogSokLrfodrklsekiktk,AvHkhgkyghesa fo}kuksa]uhfrfu/kZjdksavkSjukxfjdksaesablckrijcgqrcgl,oafopkjfoe'kZ gqvk fd D;kvktdhthMhihdklVhdvuqekuyxk;kx;kgSA

10-45;fn nks"kiw.kZ vkdyu ds lcwr fo'oluh;vkSjrxMsgSarcØkafrdkjhvkdyufof/klsifjorZudjukgksxkAgkaykafd,slsHkkjhdnedhykxrdksns[krs gq, ;g egRoiw.kZ gksxk fd vkdyu fof/dksfiQjlsns[kusdht:jrgSAblhn`<+rklsblvè;k;esalk{;ksadhè;kuiwoZdleh{kkdhxbZgSAekStwnkckSf¼dlkfgR;vkSjbduksehVªhdmik;ksadksvkSjvf/detcwrhlsmBk;kx;kgSftllsfd;girkyxk;ktkldsfdHkkjrdhthMhih]ftldhvkdyuizfØ;k2011esala'kksf/rughadhxbZFkh]mllsmPprjgSAfu/kZfjrizHkkoksadslkFk,dlsnwljsns'kdslkekU;varjfof/dkiz;ksxdjrsgq,blHkkjrh;thMhihdsnks"kiw.kZvkdyudsi{kesafdlhetcwrlk{;dhdehdksn'kkZ;kgSA

10-46blvè;k;esadghxbZcM+hckrdk]vè;k;2 esa fn, x, lw{e&Lrjh; Lkk{;ksa ds lkFk bldsfu"d"kksZa dks ;ksxokgh rjhds ls le>us dh t:jrgS]tgkaHkkjrds504ftyksaesavkSipkfjd{ks=kdsvarxZrubZiQeksZadsl`tulslacaf/rfo'ys"k.kfd;kx;kgSA bllanHkZesa fd,x,nks izs{k.kegRoiw.kZ


lanHkZ

Bhalla, S. S. 2019. “Arvind Subramanian’s method suggests Germany overestimates GDP the most.” Financal Express. June 22, 2019. https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/arvind-subramanians-method-suggests-ger-many-overestimates-gdp-the-most/1615118/

Cameron, A. C., & Miller, D. L. 2015. “A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust In-ference”. The Journal of Human Resources, 50(2), 317-372.

Cameron, A. C., Gelbach, J. B., & Miller, D. L. 2008. “Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(3), 414-427.

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Government of India. Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. 2019. GDP estimation in India- Perspectives and Facts. by Bibek Debroy, Rathin Roy, Surjit Bhalla, Charan Singh and Arvind Virmani. New Del-hi: Government of India.

Goyal, A., & Kumar, A. 2019. “Indian Growth is Not Overestimated: Mr. Subramanian You Got it Wrong.” WP-2019-019, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research.

Goyal, A., & Kumar, A. 2019. “Measuring Indian GDP: Arvind Subramanian Can’t Be Taken Seriously.” Bloomberg Quint. June 20, 2019. https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/measuring-indian-gdp-arvind-subra-manian-cant-be-taken-seriously

Mazumdar, R. 2019. “World’s Fastest-Grow-ing Economy May Not Be So Fast After All.” Bloomberg. June 11, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-11/world-s-fastest-growing-economy-may-not-be-so-fast-after-all

Nag, A., & Mazumdar, R. 2019. “India Has Been Accused of Overstating Its Growth Statistics.” Bloomberg. July 25, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti-cles/2019-07-24/india-has-been-accused-of-overstating-its-growth-statistics

Panagariya, A. 2019. “View: Why Arvind Sub-ramanian’s GDP over-estimation argument is flawed.” The Economic Times. June 26, 2019. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/view-why-arvind-sub-ramanians-gdp-over-estimation-argu-ment-is-flawed/articleshow/69949029.cms?-from=mdr

Press Trust of India. 2019. “CEA rejects Arvind Subramanian claims, says hard to create wrong narrative.” Livemint. July 4, 2019. https://www.livemint.com/budget/eco-nomic-survey/cea-rejects-arvind-subramani-an-claims-says-hard-to-create-wrong-narra-tive-1562246329862.html

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Shrivastava, R. 2019. “PM’s economic coun-cil rejects Arvind Subramanian’s claims on GDP growth over-estimation.” India Today. June 20, 2019. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/arvind-subramanian-gst-over-es-t imat ion-pm-economic-pane l - rebu t -tal-1552636-2019-06-20

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Subramanian, A. 2019. “Validating India’s GDP Growth Estimates.” Faculty Working Paper No. 357. Center for International De-velopment at Harvard University, Cambridge, MA. July, 2019.

The Wire. 2019. “ ‘Right Data, Wrong Con-clusions’: Modi’s Economic Council Re-buts Subramanian’s GDP Paper.” The Wire. June 19, 2019. https://thewire.in/economy/arvind-subramanian-pmeac-india-gdp

Vaidya Nathan, K. 2019. “View: What’s wrong with Arvind Subramanian’s GDP math.” The Economic Times. June 17, 2019. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/view-whats-wrong-with-arvind-subramanians-gdp-math/article-show/69816811.cms?from=mdr

ughaA - indiabudget.gov.in · 232 10- 0o"kZ25r00 Ñ d0fVkª gSaA izHkkoh :i ls] fu;a=k.k lewg ds...

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Transcript of ughaA - indiabudget.gov.in · 232 10- 0o"kZ25r00 Ñ d0fVkª gSaA izHkkoh :i ls] fu;a=k.k lewg ds...