UDIA | URBIS HOME PURCHASER SENTIMENT SURVEY · 6/18/2020 · URBIS.COM.AU WESTPAC SENTIMENT INDEX...
Transcript of UDIA | URBIS HOME PURCHASER SENTIMENT SURVEY · 6/18/2020 · URBIS.COM.AU WESTPAC SENTIMENT INDEX...
UDIA | URBIS HOME PURCHASER SENTIMENT SURVEY
An Update of Property Sentiment Among Sydney Residents
18 June 2020
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SAMPLE OVERVIEW
Online survey with Sydney residents aged over 21 years.
A total of 531 Sydney residents were surveyed in the period 7-12 May 2020. In July 2019 a total of 540 Sydney residents were surveyed giving a total sample of 1071 residents.
AGE AND HOUSEHOLD PROFILES IN LINE WITH GREATER SYDNEY PROFILES
18/06/2020
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
21-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
AGE DISTRIBUTION
2019 2020
Household Composition 2019 2020
Family households with children living at home 49% 45%
Family/couple household with no children at home 29% 33%
Single or lone person households, no children at home 16% 19%
Group share households, no children at home 5% 3%
Parent/(s) and Adult children 1% 1%
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CROSS SECTION OF GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS
REGION 2019 2020
Sydney - City and Inner South 16% 12%
Sydney - Inner South West 12% 12%
Sydney - Inner West 9% 11%
Sydney - North Sydney and Hornsby 9% 10%
Sydney - Parramatta 10% 9%
Sydney - Outer West and Blue Mountains 7% 8%
Sydney - Blacktown 7% 7%
Sydney - Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury 5% 6%
Sydney - South West 6% 6%
Sydney - Outer South West 4% 6%
Sydney - Eastern Suburbs 5% 5%
Sydney - Ryde 4% 4%
Sydney - Sutherland 4% 4%
Sydney - Northern Beaches 2% 1%
MIX OF TENURE AND HOUSING TYPES
.
18/06/2020
Own outright,
34%
Own with a mortgage, 37%
Rented, 29%
Other, 1%
TENURE TYPE- 2019
Own outright, 33%
Own with a mortgage, 38%
Rented, 28%
Other, 1%
TENURE TYPE- 2020
Separate house, 53%
Semi-detached, row or terrace
house, 13%
Flat or apartment,
33%
Other dwelling type, 1%
DWELLING TYPE- 2019
Separate house, 48%
Semi-detached, row or terrace house, 16%
Flat or apartment,
33%
Other dwelling type, 2%
DWELLING TYPE- 2020
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52% OF RESIDENTS ARE POSITIVE ABOUT IT BEING A GOOD TIME TO PURCHASE IN THE CURRENT MARKET. DOWN FROM 57% IN 2019.
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OVERALL, SHIFTS IN SENTIMENT ARE MODEST SINCE THE LAST SURVEY
6%
11%
25%
31%
27%
6%
13%
28%
31%
21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Very negative A little negative Neither positive or negative A little positive Very positive
MARKET SENTIMENT
2019 2020
Own Outright/
Mortgage
2019
61%
2020
54%
2019
52%
2020
50%
Rented
ONE IN TEN RESIDENTS IN INNER SOUTH / INNER WEST AND WESTERN SYDNEY FEELING LESS POSITIVE
.
18/06/2020
58%61%
55%
61%
45%
60%
52% 51% 50%48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
City and East Western Sydney North Inner West and SouthWest
Sydney - Sutherland
TOTAL POSITIVE SENTIMENT BY REGION
2019 2020
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ALL HOUSEHOLD TYPES HAVE BEEN IMPACTED
31%
VERY POSITIVE
24%
VERY POSITIVE
19%
VERY POSITIVE
28%
VERY POSITIVE
24%
VERY POSITIVE
25%
VERY POSITIVE
19%
VERY POSITIVE
20%
VERY POSITIVE
22%
VERY POSITIVE
20%
VERY POSITIVE
FAMILY
COUPLES/ SINGLES
GROUP SHARE
OWN OUTRIGHT/
MORTGAGE
RENTED
2019 2020
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WESTPAC SENTIMENT INDEX SHOWED CONFIDENCE REBOUND IN MAY 96.5
88.1
123.2108.2
119.4
72.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20
Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index
Consumer Sentiment Index Time to Buy a Dwelling Index
House Price Expectation Index
Confidence bolstered by key Government announcements
8 May – Prime Minister Morrison announced the 3 Step Framework for a Covid Safe Australia.
10 May – NSW Premier Berejiklian announced easing of restrictions for cafes, restaurants and gatherings.
49% ANTICIPATE PRICES WILL BE LOWER IN 6 MONTHS TIME. OVERALL, PRICE IMPACTS SEEN AS SHORT TERM.
18/06/2020
24%
46%
57%
15%
36%
63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
6 months 12 months 18 months
PRICE WILL INCREASE
2019 2020
54%
36%30%
36% 38%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
6 months 12 months 18 months
PRICE WILL REMAIN THE SAME
2019 2020
22%19%
13%
49%
26%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
6 months 12 months 18 months
PRICE WILL DECREASE
2019 2020
VAST MAJORITY ANTICIPATE INCREASED PRICES, OR SAME AS TODAY IN 12 MONTHS
18/06/2020
36% 35%
43%
33%37%
39%36%
43%
38%40%
25%
29%
13%
29%
23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Western Sydney Inner West and SouthWest
Sydney - Sutherland City and East North
12 MONTH PRICE SENTIMENT BY REGION - 2020
Increase Same Decrease
-15%
-7%
+7%
-2%
-16%
+7%
+2%
-12%
-4%
+7%+8%
+5% +4%+6%
+9%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
+5%
+10%
+15%
+20%
Western Sydney Inner West and SouthWest
Sydney - Sutherland City and East North
12 MONTH PRICE SENTIMENT CHANGE BY REGION: 2019-2020
Increase Same Decrease
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OVERALL 18% OF SURVEYED RESIDENTS INDICATED THEY ARE LIKELY TO PURCHASE PROPERTY IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.
64% OF RESIDENTS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE PURCHASING, MAJORITY OF WHOM ARE VERY UNLIKELY
18/06/2020
54%
18% 17%
8%3%
72%
11%
45%
19% 18%
11%7%
64%
18%
38%
15%
23%
17%
7%
53%
24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Very Unlikely Unlikely Neither likely norunlikely
Likely Very Likely TOTAL Unlikely TOTAL Likely
LIKELIHOOD OF PURCHASING A RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY - 2020
6 months 12 months 18 months
+9%
-3% -3% -3%
-1%
+7%
-3%
+6%
+1%
-3%
-5%
+1%
+7%
-4%
+5% +4%
-2%
-3%-4%
+9%
-7%-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
+2%
+4%
+6%
+8%
+10%
+12%
Very Unlikely Unlikely Neither likely norunlikely
Likely Very Likely TOTAL Unlikely TOTAL Likely
CHANGE IN LIKELIHOOD OF PURCHASING A RESIDNETIAL PROPERTY: 2019-2020
6 months 12 months 18 months
61% PREFER A FREE-STANDING HOUSE, 28% WOULD PREFER TO LIVE IN A ‘NEW’ DWELLING
13%61% 9%11%
17% 3% 2% 3%5%
18/06/2020
Free-standing
Townhouse/Terrace
Apartments < 4 levels
Apartments > 5 levels
New Buildings
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THE PULL FACTOR OF CERTAIN AREAS IN SYDNEY
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22% OF RESIDENTS WHO WERE EITHER CASUALLY OR ACTIVELY SEARCHING PRE-LOCKDOWN PUT THEIR SEARCH ON HOLD.
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32% ARE EITHER CASUALLY OR ACTIVELY SEARCHING FOR PROPERTY
Total
Likelihood to purchase
home
Likelihood to purchase
investment property
I was actively searching for residential property, and
have put the search on hold7% 16% 18%
I was actively searching for residential property, and
continue to search10% 28% 28%
I was casually searching for residential property,
and have put the search on hold15% 22% 27%
I was casually searching for residential property,
and continue to search13% 18% 15%
I was not searching for residential property, and still
am not searching46% 9% 4%
I was not searching for residential property, and now
am searching8% 7% 7%
TOTAL Search on hold, 22%
TOTAL Searching, 32%
TOTAL Not searching, 46%
ENGAGEMENT WITH PURCHASING RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY
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56% OF RESIDENTS WANT TO SEE STAMP DUTY REFORM IN NEW SOUTH WALES.
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34% THINK THE REMOVAL OF STAMP DUTY WILL INCREASE THEIR CONFIDENCE IN THE PROPERTY MARKET
34%
22%
13%
11%
11%
9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Removal of stamp duty and replacement with annual landtax payment - remove lump sum payment at purchase…
Stamp duty concessions - keep stamp duty with newconcessions such as increased threshold or lower rate
Access to a mortgage protection facility in the event of lossof income due to Covid-19 - support options to assist…
Increase in the number of First Home Loan DepositScheme Places - A Government backed scheme to get…
Expansion of the NSW First Home Owners Grant toestablished properties in addition to new properties
Access to a Government low-deposit and sharedownership scheme - joint ownership of property with…
Interventions by Government to increase confidence
REMOVAL OF STAMP DUTY PREFERRED FOR OWNERS AND FIRST HOME BUYERS
18/06/2020
Total (%)
Tenure How owned previouslyOwn Outright/
Mortgage Rented
Owned
Previously
Not Owned
Previously
Removal of stamp duty and
replacement with annual land tax
payment - remove lump sum
payment at purchase time and
replace with much lower annual land
tax
34% 40% 20% 41% 25%
Stamp duty concessions - keep
stamp duty with new concessions
such as increased threshold or
lower rate
22% 26% 11% 27% 15%
Access to a mortgage protection
facility in the event of loss of income
due to Covid-19 - support options to
assist mortgage holders avoid
default and rep
13% 12% 16% 12% 15%
Increase in the number of First
Home Loan Deposit Scheme Places
- A Government backed scheme to
get first home buyers into a
purchase with as little as 5%
11% 7% 21% 8% 16%
Expansion of the NSW First Home
Owners Grant to established
properties in addition to new
properties
11% 8% 16% 6% 17%
Access to a Government low-
deposit and shared ownership
scheme - joint ownership of property
with Government for a fixed period
9% 6% 17% 7% 11%
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SUMMARY:TOP FIVE SURVEYTAKEOUTS
Moderate decline in sentiment since July 2019
Sentiment around the investment proposition more impacted
Most anticipate short term negative impact on prices
Covid-19 created uncertainty as people withdrew from searching
Strong support for stamp duty reform to improve confidence