UDIA Research Breakfast Presentattion November 2014
12
12/11/2014 1 National Land Survey Program UDIA 2014 Report UDIA Victoria Research Breakfast Sponsored by Colin Keane – Director of the National Land Survey Program September 2014 Quarter Report Contact Colin Keane, Director of National Land Survey Program (Research4) [email protected] Robert Papaleo, Director of Charter Keck Cramer [email protected]
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Transcript of UDIA Research Breakfast Presentattion November 2014
12/11/2014
1
N a t i o n a l L a n d S u r v e y P r o g r a m U D I A 2 0 1 4 R e p o r t
UDIA Victoria Research Breakfast Sponsored by
Colin Keane – Director of the National Land Survey Program
September 2014 Quarter Report
Contact Colin Keane, Director of National Land Survey Program (Research4)
Robert Papaleo, Director of Charter Keck Cramer
12/11/2014
2
N a t i o n a l L a n d S u r v e y P r o g r a m U D I A 2 0 1 4 R e p o r t
National Market Overview
1,6
16
3,3
14
3,5
54
2,3
39
2,0
39
2,4
75
3,9
60
4,3
06
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
201
4
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
N a t i o n a l L a n d S u r v e y P r o g r a m U D I A 2 0 1 4 R e p o r t
National Market Cycle – Lot sales per month
Underlying demand for land is estimated to be 3,298pcm or 39,576pa.
Current land sales are 4,306pcm or 52,000 pa
Long running average monthly sale rate has been 2,822pcm
12/11/2014
3
N a t i o n a l L a n d S u r v e y P r o g r a m U D I A 2 0 1 4 R e p o r t
National Market Cycle – Lot sales per month All markets operating at “high” levels.
Melbourne leading the major markets; just!
SEQ & Melbourne are rising markets
Sydney and Perth holding markets
Strong leading indicator of forward housing construction activity. Share
performance of associated industries.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE SEQ PERTH SYDNEY ADELAIDE
N a t i o n a l L a n d S u r v e y P r o g r a m U D I A 2 0 1 4 R e p o r t
National Industry Capacity – Active projects
Industry capacity has increased by 85% over five years.
The major driver of this expansion has been Group 5 projects.
GROUP 5- 148 up to 363 active projects over 5 years.
14
8
36
314
6
22
6
53
72
22
30
19
30
Q2
-08
Q3
-08
Q4
-08
Q1
-09
Q2
-09
Q3
-09
Q4
-09
Q1
-10
Q2
-10
Q3
-10
Q4
-10
Q1
-11
Q2
-11
Q3
-11
Q4
-11
Q1
-12
Q2
-12
Q3
-12
Q4
-12
Q1
-13
Q2
-13
Q3
-13
Q4
-13
Q1
-14
Q2
-14
Q3
-14
Group 1 (3,000+ lots)
Group 2 (2,000-3,000+ lots)
Group 3 (1,000-2,000 lots)
Group 4 (250-1000 lots)
Group 5 (<250 lots)
12/11/2014
4
N a t i o n a l L a n d S u r v e y P r o g r a m U D I A 2 0 1 4 R e p o r t
National Industry Capacity – Active projects
Current performance is being driven by;
• Increased capacity, and
• Improved sale rates; in particular, from Group 1 projects.
3
6
1012
23
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Q2
-08
Q3
-08
Q4
-08
Q1
-09
Q2
-09
Q3
-09
Q4
-09
Q1
-10
Q2
-10
Q3
-10
Q4
-10
Q1
-11
Q2
-11
Q3
-11
Q4
-11
Q1
-12
Q2
-12
Q3
-12
Q4
-12
Q1
-13
Q2
-13
Q3
-13
Q4
-13
Q1
-14
Q2
-14
Q3
-14
Ave
rage
lot
sale
s p
er m
on
th
Group 1 (3,000+ lots) Group 2 (2,000-3,000+ lots) Group 3 (1,000-2,000 lots)
Group 4 (250-1000 lots) Group 5 (<250 lots)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
STO
CK
OV
ERH
AN
G (
LOTS
)
N a t i o n a l L a n d S u r v e y P r o g r a m U D I A 2 0 1 4 R e p o r t
National Stock Overhang – Lots for sale
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
National 12,000 lots
4 Months of trading
4.3 months of trading
5.3 months of trading
4.0 months of trading
7.7 months of trading
2.1 months of trading
12/11/2014
5
56%
71%
76%
68%
56%
49%46%
37% 36%
44%
37%
23%
29%31% 30%
42% 43% 43% 42%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Perc
ent
of
Lots
Rel
ease
d
N a t i o n a l L a n d S u r v e y P r o g r a m U D I A 2 0 1 4 R e p o r t
National “Time on Market” Percentage of new lots released sold within the same quarter.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,6002
00
8
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,6002
008
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
Time taken to sell lots released . • Sydney 80% sold on release • SEQ 65% • Perth 58% • Adelaide 42%
• Melbourne 48%
N a t i o n a l L a n d S u r v e y P r o g r a m U D I A 2 0 1 4 R e p o r t
National Lot Pricing – Median lot price $,000
$1
91 $
19
9
$2
16
$2
28 $2
34
$2
31
$2
35
$2
51
$175
$185
$195
$205
$215
$225
$235
$245
$255
20
08
20
09
201
0
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Med
ian
Lo
t P
rice
($
,00
0))
$203
$245$262
$300
$165
$125
$145
$165
$185
$205
$225
$245
$265
$285
$305
$325
200
8
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Med
ian
Lo
t P
rice
($
,00
0) MEL
SEQ
PER
SYD
ADL
7% pa 13-14
3% pa 08-14
12/11/2014
6
N a t i o n a l L a n d S u r v e y P r o g r a m U D I A 2 0 1 4 R e p o r t
National Lot Pricing- Government grants
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
AV
FIR
ST H
OM
E B
UYE
R A
SSIS
TAN
CE
VIC NSW QLD WA SA
Value of grants and duty savings over time.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Net
Lo
t Sa
les
(Mo
nth
ly)
MELBOURNE
SEQ
PERTH
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
N a t i o n a l L a n d S u r v e y P r o g r a m U D I A 2 0 1 4 R e p o r t
National Lot Pricing- First Home Buyer Capacity
$2
64
,83
7
$2
61
,69
8
$2
26
,30
3
$2
17
,43
2
$2
16
,35
0
$2
16
,41
0
$2
48
,00
0
$2
62
,00
0
$3
00
,00
0
$2
45
,00
0
$1
65
,00
0 $2
03
,00
0
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
ACT PER SYD SEQ ADL MEL
PURCASING CAPACITY (LAND) MEDIAN LAND PRICE
12/11/2014
7
N a t i o n a l L a n d S u r v e y P r o g r a m U D I A 2 0 1 4 R e p o r t
Melbourne Pricing Capacity-Forecast
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
Q2
-20
08
Q4
-20
08
Q2
-20
09
Q4
-20
09
Q2
-20
10
Q4
-20
10
Q2
-20
11
Q4
-20
11
Q2
-20
12
Q4
-20
12
Q2
-20
13
Q4
-20
13
Q2
-20
14
Q4
-20
14
Q2
-20
15
Q4
-20
15
Q2
-20
16
Q4
-20
16
Q2
-20
17
Q4
-20
17
MED
IAN
LO
T P
RIC
E ($
,00
0)
Forecast Median Lot Price
First Home Buyer Land Budget Period A
Period B
Period C
Term Annual
11% 2.4%
Median $
38 Month Forecast
$222,017
N a t i o n a l L a n d S u r v e y P r o g r a m U D I A 2 0 1 4 R e p o r t
Melbourne Market Overview
12/11/2014
8
167
210
$130
$150
$170
$190
$210
$230
$250
$270
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Q2
-08
Q4
-08
Q2
-09
Q4
-09
Q2
-10
Q4
-10
Q2
-11
Q4
-11
Q2
-12
Q4
-12
Q2
-13
Q4
-13
Q2
-14
Med
ian
Lo
t P
rice
Lot
Sale
s
Quarterly Survey
M E L B O U R N E – S U B M A R K E T D A S H B O A R D
LOT SALES & MEDIAN LOT PRICE
Active Projects
Stock Overhang
Cancellation rate
Craigieburn
Median Lot Price
Lot Sales
13
Av Project Sale rate 13pcm
3%
2 months
KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
Price Growth (13-14) 2.4%
262
225
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
$200
$210
$220
$230
$240
$250
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q2
-08
Q4
-08
Q2
-09
Q4
-09
Q2
-10
Q4
-10
Q2
-11
Q4
-11
Q2
-12
Q4
-12
Q2
-13
Q4
-13
Q2
-14
Med
ian
Lo
t P
rice
Lot
Sale
s
Quarterly Survey
M E L B O U R N E – S U B M A R K E T D A S H B O A R D
LOT SALES & MEDIAN LOT PRICE
Active Projects
Stock Overhang
Cancellation rate
Casey
Median Lot Price
Lot Sales
36
Av Project Sale rate 7.3pcm
7%
3 months
KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
Price Growth (13-14) 2.3%
12/11/2014
9
112
193
$150
$155
$160
$165
$170
$175
$180
$185
$190
$195
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q2
-08
Q4
-08
Q2
-09
Q4
-09
Q2
-10
Q4
-10
Q2
-11
Q4
-11
Q2
-12
Q4
-12
Q2
-13
Q4
-13
Q2
-14
Med
ian
Lo
t P
rice
Lot
Sale
s
Quarterly Survey
M E L B O U R N E – S U B M A R K E T D A S H B O A R D
LOT SALES & MEDIAN LOT PRICE
Active Projects
Stock Overhang
Cancellation rate
Cardinia
Median Lot Price
Lot Sales
23
Av Project Sale rate 5 pcm
6%
4 months
KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
Price Growth (13-14) 8.1%
89
194
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
$200
$210
$220
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q2
-08
Q4
-08
Q2
-09
Q4
-09
Q2
-10
Q4
-10
Q2
-11
Q4
-11
Q2
-12
Q4
-12
Q2
-13
Q4
-13
Q2
-14
Med
ian
Lo
t P
rice
Lot
Sale
s
Quarterly Survey
M E L B O U R N E – S U B M A R K E T D A S H B O A R D
LOT SALES & MEDIAN LOT PRICE
Active Projects
Stock Overhang
Cancellation rate
Mernda
Median Lot Price
Lot Sales
23
Av Project Sale rate 4 pcm
7%
5.3 months
KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
Price Growth (13-14) 2.6%
12/11/2014
10
73
195
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
$200
$210
$220
$230
$240
$250
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Q2
-08
Q4
-08
Q2
-09
Q4
-09
Q2
-10
Q4
-10
Q2
-11
Q4
-11
Q2
-12
Q4
-12
Q2
-13
Q4
-13
Q2
-14
Med
ian
Lo
t P
rice
Lot
Sale
s
Quarterly Survey
M E L B O U R N E – S U B M A R K E T D A S H B O A R D
LOT SALES & MEDIAN LOT PRICE
Active Projects
Stock Overhang
Cancellation rate
Epping
Median Lot Price
Lot Sales
12
Av Project Sale rate 6 pcm
2%
2.2 months
KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
Price Growth (13-14) -0.5%
61
249
$150
$170
$190
$210
$230
$250
$270
$290
$310
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Q2
-08
Q4
-08
Q2
-09
Q4
-09
Q2
-10
Q4
-10
Q2
-11
Q4
-11
Q2
-12
Q4
-12
Q2
-13
Q4
-13
Q2
-14
Med
ian
Lo
t P
rice
Lot
Sale
s
Quarterly Survey
M E L B O U R N E – S U B M A R K E T D A S H B O A R D
LOT SALES & MEDIAN LOT PRICE
Active Projects
Stock Overhang
Cancellation rate
Melton East
Median Lot Price
Lot Sales
7
Av Project Sale rate 9 pcm
0%
2 months
KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
Price Growth (13-14) 6.0%
12/11/2014
11
36
141
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Q2
-08
Q4
-08
Q2
-09
Q4
-09
Q2
-10
Q4
-10
Q2
-11
Q4
-11
Q2
-12
Q4
-12
Q2
-13
Q4
-13
Q2
-14
Med
ian
Lo
t P
rice
Lot
Sale
s
Quarterly Survey
M E L B O U R N E – S U B M A R K E T D A S H B O A R D
LOT SALES & MEDIAN LOT PRICE
Active Projects
Stock Overhang
Cancellation rate
Melton West
Median Lot Price
Lot Sales
14
Av Project Sale rate 2.6pcm
8%
12 months
KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
Price Growth (13-14) -7.8%
183
200
$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
$200
$210
$220
$230
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q2
-08
Q4
-08
Q2
-09
Q4
-09
Q2
-10
Q4
-10
Q2
-11
Q4
-11
Q2
-12
Q4
-12
Q2
-13
Q4
-13
Q2
-14
Med
ian
Lo
t P
rice
Lot
Sale
s
Quarterly Survey
M E L B O U R N E – S U B M A R K E T D A S H B O A R D
LOT SALES & MEDIAN LOT PRICE
Active Projects
Stock Overhang
Cancellation rate
Hoppers/Tarneit/ Wyndham
Median Lot Price
Lot Sales
31
Av Project Sale rate 6 pcm
3%
2.3 months
KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
Price Growth (13-14) 1.0%
12/11/2014
12
59
279
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
$240
$260
$280
$300
$320
$340
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q2
-08
Q4
-08
Q2
-09
Q4
-09
Q2
-10
Q4
-10
Q2
-11
Q4
-11
Q2
-12
Q4
-12
Q2
-13
Q4
-13
Q2
-14
Med
ian
Lo
t P
rice
Lot
Sale
s
Quarterly Survey
M E L B O U R N E – S U B M A R K E T D A S H B O A R D
LOT SALES & MEDIAN LOT PRICE
Active Projects
Stock Overhang
Cancellation rate
Point Cook
Median Lot Price
Lot Sales
12
Av Project Sale rate 5 pcm
5%
3 months
KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
Price Growth (13-14) 9.0%
Contact Colin Keane, Director of National Land Survey Program (Research4)
Robert Papaleo, Director of Charter Keck Cramer
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