UBS Non-Deal Roadshow 17-20 January...
Transcript of UBS Non-Deal Roadshow 17-20 January...
UBS Non-Deal Roadshow 17-20 January 2012
Contents
Oil & Gas Balance / PTT Aspiration
Operational Results
Financial Performance
Economic & Market Outlook
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
1
Indigenous (20%)
Imported Refined Petroleum Products 54 KBD
794 KBD (**)
Source: PTIT
Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries= 834 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 98 KBD
(**) Not included Inventory
KBD = Thousand Barrels per day
Crude Export 31 KBD
Import (80%)
Crude/ Condensate 809 KBD
Refined Products 932 KBD*
Domestic
Crude/ Condensate 179 KBD
Supply Production Sales
Export
229 KBD
Oil Balance Thailand: Jan - Sep 2011
863 KBD
210 KBD
Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply
Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,099 KBD
PTT’s Associated Refineries : 905 KBD (TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)
Other Refineries : 194 KBD (ESSO, RPC)
Refined Products 198 KBD
2
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
LNG
9%
Myanmar
91%
Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Sep 2011
Indigenous (77%) 3,286 MMSCFD
Power (61%)
Industry (13%)
NGV (6%)
Petrochemical Feedstock (13%)
Industry Household
Transportation (7%)
Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL
LPG/NGL
Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3
Total 4,248 MMSCFD
Pipeline 831 MMSCFD
2,456 MMSCFD
Methane 1,586 MMSCFD
Main driver of the Thai economy
Supply Production Sales
869 MMSCFD (20%)
6 GSPs Total Capacity
2,680 MMSCFD
964 MMSCFD
Chevron
27%
PTTEP 33%
Others 40%
Import (23%) 964 MMSCFD
3
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Our major businesses & activities
E&P
Gas
PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production
Upst
ream
Oil Marketing
Int’l Trading
Dow
nst
ream
Refining &
Petrochemical
(Aromatics)
TOP 49.10% Integrated Complex Refinery & Petrochemical
IRPC 38.52%
SPRC 36.00% Stand alone Complex Refinery
BCP 27.22% Complex Refinery & Retail Stations
PTTGC 48.92% Petrochemical Flagship Petrochemical
New
Busi
ness
International PTT Inter 100% Overseas investment arm of PTT :
Coal, New energy and related businesses
PTT PLC
• Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing
• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and
petrochemical products
Inte
rmedia
te
PTT PLC
• Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline
• S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas
• GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock
4
Business Areas Activities Company PTT’s holding (%)
PTT Aspiration Strategic direction and target to achieve “Big-Long-Strong” aspiration
“Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company”
Big
“Top quartile performance”
Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes
Long
Expand resources Maximize value along
the chain
Balance stakeholder excellence
Big
Long
Strong
Drive functional excellence and synergy
Share best practice and knowledge management
Strong
5
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
2011 PTT Group Strategic Direction Investment priorities by geography and value chain
Upstream P&R
Non-oil Retail
Oil
& G
as
Retail
Upstream Upstream
Upstream Midstream
Upstream Coal
Ad
jace
nt
ind
ustr
y
Trading
Create P&R flagship and internationalize chemical business
Explore opportunities in non-fuel retail
Oth
ers
Internationalization
Gre
en
E
ne
rgy/
ma
teri
als
Infrastructure
Build Green business (ASEAN biohub) Bio-business
Div
ers
ific
ati
on
Non- Asia Europe Non- Asia Africa Non- Asia Americas Non- Asia Middle East
Australia, N. Asia and S. Asia ASEAN
Expand production to 900 kbd
Build LNG business & expand mid-/ downstream gas value chain
Support group inv.
Alt. energy Build Thai clean power, monitor opport. in ASEAN
Grow coal mining to large scale
Upstream Power Build Thailand Gas, follow int. gas value chain expansion, opportunistic coal
Expand oil station related business and spin off lubricants
Strengthen integrated hub (e.g. Gr. Marine)
Consolidate petroleum commodities and create value through international transactions
Plantations Develop palm oil, sugar and cassava
Top oil and gas player
Energy
conglomerate
Business conglomerate
Priority 1 Priority 3 Priority 2 based on market attractiveness and potential for PTT Group to be distinctive 6
Contents
Oil & Gas Balance / PTT Aspiration
Operational Results
Financial Performance
Economic & Market Outlook
7
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Exploration & Production performance : PTTEP (65.29%)
Product Prices Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume Key Activities
5.92 5.91 5.49 5.81
108.95 101.67
71.51
102.06
56.28 55.37 44.37
53.68
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
Liquid (USD/BBL)
Gas (USD/MMBTU)
Weighted Avg. (USD/BOE)
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
250 370
979
Unit: MMUSD
999
2%
32%
185 194
80 76
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M11
273 262 265
Liquid
Gas
Unit: KBOED
3%
270
3%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Petchem Refining Others
8
QoQ • Sales vol. dropped from Arthit, Arthit North, and Bongkot projects • FX loss from MTM of USD loan extended to a Canadian subsidiary
9M • Sales vol. increased mainly from MTJDA-B17, Bongkot, and KKD projects • Net Income declined from increase in tax expenditure and FX loss
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
265 269
307 323 329 317
Unit: KBOED
MTJDA
Bongkot
Arthit
Others
KKD Oil Sands MTJDA
Vietnam 16-1
Montara
Bongkot South
Algeria
M9
Total 1,043 MMBOE
Reserves Replacement Ratio 1.33 > 1
Reserve Life Index (year) 9
Policy
45% 55%
Domestic
Overseas
Exploration & Production Roadmap : PTTEP
Target Sales Volume Proved Reserves
9
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Petchem Refining Others
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
1,117 1,173
950 900
496 504
837 870
586 546 263 249
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
Gas Business performance : PTT
NG Sales Volume EBITDA
Customer Profile Key Activities
2011
2009
2010
3,280
3,606 3,677 3,686
3,802
4,055
4,152
4,148 4,145
4,330 4,249
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Unit: MMSCFD
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
Unit: MMTHB
35,506
16,832 18,843
52,315
47%
11%
EGAT (27%)
IPP (22%)
SPP (12%)
GSP (20%)
Industry (13%) NGV (6%)
3% Unit: MMSCFD
4,104 4,330 4,241 4,249
2%
10
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Petchem Refining Others
QoQ
• Both NG and GSPs sales volume declined as a result
of gas pipeline incident
• LNG receiving terminal commenced operation right
in time to make up for loss volume from the leakage
9M
• Performance increased from increases in both
selling price and sale volume
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Product Prices NGV EBIT Loss
GSP Sales Volume Key Activities
PP
HDPE
Naphtha
Unit : USD/Ton
333 333 333 333
904 869
636
869
1,373 1,399
1,209
1,387
1,669 1,606
1,296
1,636
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
Domestic LPG
Unit : MMTHB
-5,148 -3,164
-2,327
-7,297 42%
36%
Propane (9%)
NGL (11%)
Ethane (31%)
LPG (49%)
Unit : KTon
701
2,121 163
480
406
1331
111
388
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
3,059
1,381 1,472
4,320 41%
6%
Gas Business performance: Gas Separation Plants & NGV
11
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Petchem Refining Others
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
QoQ
• 28 days Ethane Separation Plant (ESP) warranty
turnaround
• GSP 6 reduced utilization as Ethane Cracker of
PTTPE shutdown for 42 days
• More NGV loss QoQ as sales volume increased
9M
• GSP volume increased by 41% from COD of ESP
in Jul 10 and GSP6 in Jan 11
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pipeline Capacity
(MMSCFD) 4,380
GSP Production
(MTA)
5,580
7.0 7.0
6,980
7.0
6,980
7.0
New Supply
PTTEP (Bongkot
South)
4th Onshore
PTTLNG
Offshore Compressor
PTTEP (M9) Chevron
(Plathong)
6,980
6.3
Unit : MMSCFD
GSP#6
Power - EGAT
- IPP
- SPP
GSP
Industry NGV
60%
21% 13%
8%
6% 18%
15%
59%
6,980
7.0
Gas Business Roadmap
12
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Petchem Refining Others
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Oil Business performance : PTT
Contribution Margin* EBITDA
Sales Volume Key Activities
310 694
2,926
9,656
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
Oil
Non-Oil
Unit : MMTHB
0.80
0.72 0.77 0.76
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
Unit :THB/Liter 11%
8%
3,531 3,236
9,364 10,350
5,286 5,551
15,441 16,232
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
Unit : MM Liter 5%
5%
* Exclude non –oil business
13
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Petchem Refining Others
QoQ
• Volume increased from increased F/O sales to
compensate for NG vol. loss from pipeline leakage
• Lower stock gain
9M
• Diesel volume increased as a result of Government’s
capped price policy
• Fuel oil volume increased from pipeline leakage
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
International Trading Business performance : PTT
Contribution Margin EBITDA*
Sales Volume Key Activities
362 612
2,232 1,926
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
Unit : MMTHB
0.03
0.04
0.05 0.05
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
Unit :THB/Liter 14%
69%
16,248 16,098
44,533 45,409
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
Unit : MM Liter
1%
2%
* PTT Only
14
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Petchem Refining Others
QoQ • Improved margins for refined products 9M
• Increase in sales volume of diesel and fuel
oil, as well as margins of gasoline & fuel oil
• Decrease in EBITDA, resulting from lower
other income
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Petrochemical Business performance
Product Prices Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume Key Activities
904 869 636
869
1,669 1,606 1,296
1,639
1,373 1,399 1,209
1,387
2,074 1,967
1,552
1,857
2,432
2,041 1,834 2,288
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
Unit : MMTHB
HDPE
Light Naphtha
PP
Unit : USD/Ton
BPA
Phenol
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
24,183
PTT Phenol
PTTCH
114%
HMC Polymers Others
18%
11,324 8,763 7,200
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
87% 78% 81%
84%
Unit : KTon
PTTCH
HMC Polymers
PTT Phenol
626 639
1,367
1,886
2%
38%
15
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Petchem Refining Others
QoQ • Performance weaken due to the decrease in sales
volume and average selling price, as well as the 42 days turnaround of PTTPE’s Ethane Cracker (1 MTA)
9M • However, 9M performance stronger due to the increase
in sales volume and average selling prices over the period, as well as the commercial operations of
• PTTPE’s Ethane Cracker 1 MTA in Dec 2010 • PTTCH’s HDPE 300 KTA & LDPE 400 KTA in Q1/11 • PTT Phenol’s Bis-Phenol A 150 KTA in Q2/11 • HMC Polymers’s PDH/PP 300/310 KTA in Q1/11
Aggregated Util.
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Petrochemical Business Roadmap
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PTT 48.92%
Refining 280 KTA
Olefins 2,888 KTA
Aromatics 2,259 KTA
Polymers 1,590 KTA
Specialty 826 KTA
Euro IV
PTT 40.00%
Phenol 200 KTA
Acetone 125 KTA
BPA 150 KTA
Phenol 250 KTA Acetone 154 KTA
PTT 41.44% PP 450 KTA
PP 300 KTA Propylene 310 KTA
PTT 48.50%
AN 200 KTA MMA 70 KTA
PTT 50.00%
PBS 20 KTA
16
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Petchem Refining Others
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
101% 102% 98% 97%
-10%
40%
90%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
709 681 675
5.56 5.75
4.49
6.49
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
GRM/GIM Net Income (100%)
Total Intake Key Activities
Refining Business performance
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
5,187
39,142
13,228 16,686
Unit : MMTHB
A/C GRM
135%
61%
A/C GIM
700
Unit : USD/BBL
Mkt GRM 6.66
8.66
6.32 6.13
9.93
5.99
4.60
7.30
Source : PTT, Refining Associates Note: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, PTTAR, SPRC and BCP) Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP, PTTAR and IRPC) Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss
Unit : KBD
BCP
IRPC
SPRC
PTTAR
TOP
BCP
SPRC
PTTAR
TOP
Aggregated Util.
17
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Petchem Refining Others
QoQ • Mkt GRM improved from high regional demand • For Aromatics, strong demand from new PTA& healthy
polyester mkt • Tight supply due to T/A of S‐Oil, outages of CNOOC (840 KTA)
and concern over Gov. to shut Fujian Dahua (PX=700 KTA) • Weak BZ demand from recession concern & major T/A of SM
plant • Additionally, stock loss pulled down refinery performance 9M • Mkt GRM improved from high demand in relation to the world
economic recovery
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PTT 49.10%
Refining Cap. 275 Kbpd PX 489 KTA MX 90 KTA BZ 177 KTA Tol 144 KTA
EURO IV
VLCC 2 MMBBL
PX & BZ Upgrading
• PX 100 KTA
• BZ 100 KTA
Ethanol UBE
400 KLiter/day
HCU Revamp Phase I-PSA
Benzene Derivatives-LAB 100 KTA
Power Plant 110 MW
PTT 38.52%
Refining Cap. 215 Kbpd Aromatic 367 KTA Olefin 728 KTA Polyolefin 615 KTA
Power plant
220 MW
(COD Jun 1)
Propylene Booster
• Propylene
100 KTA
ABS/SAN Expansion
• ABS/SAN 61 KTA
PP Compound and Specialties 100 KTA
Propylene 320 KTA
PTT 27.22%
Bangchak
Refining Cap. 120 Kbpd
EURO IV
*Solar Power Plant Ph I 38 MW (8 MW: COD Aug 2011)
Ethanol TAE
365 KLiter/day
Solar Power Plant Ph II
32 MW
Ethanol UBE
400 KLiter/day
Solar Power Plant Ph III
48 MW Algae Energy 30,000 Liter/Day
Palm Mill 45 Tons/Hour
Expansion project
* 30 MW expected COD on July ,2012 due to flooding impact
Refining Business Roadmap
18
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Petchem Refining Others
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (45.6%)
Average SAR Selling Price Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume Key Activities
Unit : MMUSD
102%
95 94
72
90
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
Unit : USD/Ton
39 37 58
117
5%
Q2/11 Q3/11 9M/10 9M/11
2,477
Unit : KTon
2,494
7,650
Jembayan
Sebuku
7,812
1%
2%
19
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Petchem Refining Others
QoQ • 23% upgrade of JORC reserves leading to
Jembayan reserves increased from 122MTon to 142.3 MTon
• Northern Leases began its operation 9M • Sales volume decreased due to massive
typhoons this year
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Coal Mining Roadmap
Target Production Volume Resources & Reserves
20
Unit : MMTon
2008 2009 2010 2011 E 2012 E 2013 E
8.5 9.0
10.7
11.1*
12.0*
14.0*
Jembayan
Sebuku
2%
98%
Sebuku
Jembayan
60%
40%
Jembayan
Sebuku
Resources 1,505 MMTon
Reserves 146 MMTon
* Minimum range of forecasted Volume
20
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Petchem Refining Others
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Contents
Oil & Gas Balance / PTT Aspiration
Operational Results
Financial Performance
Economic & Market Outlook
21
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Dubai (USD/BBL)
EBITDA
Net Income
EPS (THB/Share)
Unit : MMTHB 1%
Revenue
111 107
643,577
648,365
Q2/11 Q3/11
55,054
52,866
Q2/11 Q3/11
4%
32,528 21,599
2Q/11 3Q/11
34%
11.40 7.57
75%
15%
6% 4%
PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others PTTEP
56% 32%
6%
6% PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
55%
24%
15%
10%
-3%
PTT
PetChem
Others
PTTEP
Refining
PTT Consolidated Performance : Q3/11
22
Revenue
EBITDA
Net Income
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Unit : MMTHB 30%
76 106
1,405,429
1,832,799
9M/10 9M/11
128,528 159,773
9M/10 9M/11
24%
61,495
88,651
9M/10 9M/11
44%
21.68 31.08
75%
15%
6% 4%
PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others PTTEP
54% 33%
7%
6% PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
45%
23%
13%
18% 1%
PTT
PetChem
Others
PTTEP
Refining
PTT Consolidated Performance : 9M/11
23
Revenue
EBITDA
Net Income
Dubai (USD/BBL)
EBITDA
Net Income
EPS (THB/Share)
Revenue
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
11.2 12.1
0.4 0.5
1.3
1.6
2010 9M/11
496,661 582,986
368,515
409,776
206,348
261,388 157,585
112,318
557,414 610,232
371,029 407,000
300,666
349,236
Other Liabilities
PP&E
Others Non-
current Assets
Other Current Assets
L/T Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr)
Total Equity
Unit: MMTHB
Cash & S/T Invest
Increased assets :
• GSP#6
• 40% KKD Oil Sands
• PTTLNG
• WIP of 4th pipeline,
Offshore gas spurlines
Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0
Net Debt/Equity < 1.0
ICR
Strong Financial Position
PTT ratings at sovereign level
− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB)
− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A), FITCH (A-)
31 Dec10 30 Sep 11
1,229,109 1,366,468
11%
Statement of Financial Position : Solid and Secured
24
Treasury policy
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Gas 33%
Oil & Trading
14%R&D / Others 3%
Others 41%
Coal 2%Power 2% LNG 5%
27,16331,831
35,812
16,653 7,611
55,49241,279 32,383
26,880
23,134
R&D / Others
JV & Investment in Subsidiaries
Oil & Trading
Gas
85,484 81,513
Unit: MMTHB
PTT: CAPEX (PTT and wholly owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 358 bn ($12bn) during 2012-2016
91,467
CAPEX Breakdown : 5 Years
By Business Unit
61,148
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
38,384
JV &
Investment in
Subsidiaries
50%
25
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Dividend Policy & Historical Payments
26
PTT’s minimum payout ratio
PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income
UNIT : Baht / share
7.71 8.75
13.43
22.40
30.57
34.14 34.82
18.33
21.06
29.26
23.52
2.50 2.85 4.006.75
9.2510.50 11.50
8.00 8.5010.25
6.00
25% 25%
32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0%
43.6% 40.4%35.0%
25.5%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H2011
EPS DPS % Dividend Payout
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Contents
Oil & Gas Balance / PTT Aspiration
Operational Results
Financial Performance
Economic & Market Outlook
27
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
• Uncertainties surrounding European sovereign debt crisis continues/ exacerbates ?
– EU to save European financial market in time?
– Credit rating downgrade continues to spread?
– Contagious effect ?
• Chinese economy continues to grow at a slower pace from tighten monetary policy.
• IMF projects world economy to grow at 3.6% in Q4/11.
• Thai economy will significantly contract due to Country’s worst flood. NESDB estimates Q4/11 GDP to minus 3.7% and average 2011 growth at 1.5%
Economic Outlook : Q4/11
28
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Positive Factors Negative Factors Price
Outlook
Crude
• Strong seasonal demand (winter) • Global inventory drawdown
• European crisis uncertainties • Global economic slowdown • Increase supply from resume of Libyan crude production
Refining
• Continuing demand from China • Japanese Demand for power generation and heater
• Refineries resume from maintenance
Aromatics
• Start up of New PTA plants in China, Taiwan and Korea
• Global economic slowdown
Olefins
• New Ethylene supply delay (Exxon 1,000 KTA shifted its COD to Q3/12)
• Global economic slowdown • De-stocking ahead of year
ended holiday • Operation resume from S/D
Industry Outlook : Q4/11
29
Oil & Gas Balance Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook
Thank you
PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected]
http://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR
The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such
information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to
future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and
uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our
assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.
Disclaimer
Highlights
31
Economy
Operations
• Potential Greece’s sovereign debt default resulting in fear of European/World’s economic slowdown
• Prolonged China tight monetary policy
• Frequent typhoons & monsoons hit Asia since June 2011 causing great flood in Thailand from September 2011. Q3/11 Thai GDP growth at 3.5% (prior forecasted at 4.2%)
• Estimated cost of flood at THB 600 Bn. to 1.1 Trillion, according to Board of Trade of Thailand. About 1,000 factories in 7 industrial estates were seriously affected
• 52 days offshore gas distribution pipeline leakage (25 Jun – 15 Aug 2011)
• 28 days planned shutdown of Ethane Separation Plant
• 42 days planned shutdown of Ethane Cracker of PTTPE
• NEPC approved - NGV price increase at THB 0.50 per KG per month and
- LPG price for transportation sector increase at THB 0.75 per KG per month, both from Jan – Dec 2012
Highlights
32
Investments
Key Performance
• Successfully merged PTTCH & PTTAR, to create “PTT Global Chemical Plc.” on 19 Oct. 2011, with market cap of THB 301 billion (#6 on SET as at 14 Nov. 2011)
• Invested 25% in Bangpa-in Cogeneration Co,.Ltd. (119 MW) with registered capital of THB 1,370 mm
Q3/11
• Avg. Dubai price of 107 $/bbl, falling from 111 $/bbl in Q2/11, resulting in refineries’ stock losses
• Notwithstanding pipeline leakage incident, natural gas sales volume decreased merely by 2% QoQ
• Consolidated net income of THB 22 bn. (-34% QoQ), mainly caused by operational FX loss at a subsidiary
9M/11
• Nonetheless, 9M/11 Consolidated net income stands at THB 89 bn., increased by 44% from last year
33
76.69
73.48
77.31
83.59
76.3
74.0 72.49
74.09
75.12
80.2
83.7
89.1 92.5
100.2
108.7 116.0
108.4
107.8 110.0
105.0
106.3
95.2
93.3
94.7 100.2
100.8 98.8
96.2
89.4
94.7 97.3
107.0
119.5
130.0 127.1
126.6
122.3
119.4 119.8
121.1 120.7
123.3
10.1
9.7
10.6
10.9
11.3
10.6 11.2
11.3
11.1 11.0
11.1
11.0
11.5 12.2
12.5 13.1
13.7 14.5
16.1 16.5
16.5
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan- 11 Apr-11 Jul-11
LNG
($/MMBTU)
Dubai
crude
($/BBL)
Coal
($/Ton)
Prices Movement
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2011
33
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11
Interest Rate and FX movement
34
6MTHBFIX
FX THB/USD
THB % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
30.13 30.28 30.53
1.91% 3.17% 2.96% 30.09 30.89 32.40 32.48
0.97% 1.02% 1.28% 1.25%
2010 2011
% share
Unit : MMTHB Q2/11 Q3/11 QoQ Q2/11 Q3/11 QoQ
PTT Company Only 19,888 24,890 25% 19,888 24,890 25%
Less: Dividend Received 5,134 13,182 157% 5,134 13,182 157%
Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates989 0 m.n. 989 0 m.n.
Others adjusting 0 3 m.n. 0 3 m.n.
PTT Net operating Income 13,765 11,705 -15% 13,765 11,705 -15%
E&P - PTTEP 11,170 7,450 -33% 65.29% 7,704 5,176 -33%
Petro Business 8,763 7,200 -18% 4,077 3,278 -20%
- PTTCH 6,433 4,970 -23% 49.14% 3,023 2,327 -23%
- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC
/ PTTME/PTTTANK2,330 2,230 -4% 40-48% 1,054 951 -10%
Refining Business 13,228 5,187 -61% 6,438 2,135 -67%
- TOP 3,245 2,518 -22% 49.10% 2,705 1,220 -55%
- IRPC 2,981 -177 -106% 38.52% 846 -275 -132%
- PTTAR 2,141 1,251 -42% 48.45% 1,165 679 -42%
- SPRC 1,840 991 -46% 36.00% 800 339 -58%
- BCP 3,021 604 -80% 27.22% 922 172 -81%
Others Buiness 640 -106 -117% -26 -695 m.n.
Inter- PTTI group(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG)
,PTTGE-31 -445 m.n. 100% -31 -445 m.n.
Gas &
Utilities-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 1,073 853 -21% 20-100% 439 269 -39%
Oil & Oth.- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/
/PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo-402 -514 -28% 33-100% -434 -519 -20%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 33,801 19,731 -42% 18,193 9,894 -46%
Add Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates570 0 m.n. 570 0 m.n.
PTT Conso. Net Income 48,136 31,436 -35% 32,528 21,599 -34%
Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT
PTT Group Performance : Q3/11
35
Highlights Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook Flood
36
PTT Group Performance : 9M/11
% share
Unit : MMTHB 9M/10 9M/11 YoY 9M/10 9M/11 YoY
PTT Company Only 44,934 64,406 43% 44,934 64,406 43%
Less: Dividend Received 16,826 23,782 41% 16,826 23,782 41%
Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates989 m.n. 989 m,n.
PTT Net operating Income 28,108 39,635 41% 28,108 39,635 41%
E&P - PTTEP 32,324 29,598 -8% 65.29% 21,212 20,123 -5%
Petro. Business 11,324 24,183 114% 5,204 11,226 116%
- PTTCH 7,479 17,581 135% 49.14% 3,594 8,273 130%
- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC
/ PTTME/PTTTANK3,845 6,602 72% 40-48% 1,610 2,953 83%
Refining 16,686 39,431 136% 6,701 16,503 146%
- TOP 5,378 12,991 142% 49.10% 2,514 6,450 157%
- IRPC 3,870 6,302 63% 38.52% 1,367 2,031 49%
- PTTAR 2,520 8,371 232% 48.45% 1,239 4,109 232%
- SPRC 3,208 6,718 109% 36.00% 1,095 2,513 129%
- BCP 1,710 5,049 195% 27.22% 486 1,400 188%
Others Business 983 2,370 141% 270 594 120%
Inter- PTTI group
(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-2,034 -1,061 48% 100% -2,033 -1,061 48%
Gas &
Utilities-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 2,162 2,758 28% 20-100% 1,281 1,057 -17%
Oil & Oth.- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/
/PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo855 673 -21% 33-100% 1,022 598 -41%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 61,317 95,582 56% 33,387 48,446 45%
Add Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates0 570 m.n. 0 570 m.n.
PTT Conso. Net Income 89,425 135,787 52% 61,495 88,651 44%
Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT
Highlights Operational Results Financial Performance Economic & Market Outlook Flood
9M10 9M11 9M10 9M11
Operating 101,527 102,861 CAPEX & Investment -71,341 -134,571
EBITDA & Non-Cash Adjustment 94,888 127,049 CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) -65,597 -83,384 Changes in assets & liabilities 6,638 -24,188 Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -2,749 -77,117
Dividend/Interest Received 9,154 15,495 Others -12,150 10,434
Free Cash Flow Finance -6,550 -17,749
30,185 -31,711 Issued Loans/Bonds 60,073 46,819 Repayment Loans -19,919 -3,924 Redemption Bonds -8,000 -8,000 Interest Paid -10,264 -13,840 Share Issued 2,868 1,981 Dividend Paid -31,308 -40,784 Adjustment -5,468 10,699 Effect of FX on Cash & Cash Equivalent -5,095 685 Currency Translation Differences -373 10,014
Ending Cash & Beginning Cash &
Cash Equivalents Cash in (Out)
Cash Equivalents 122,199 97,040 104,033 135,801 18,166 -38,761
Statements of Consolidated Cash flows for Sep. 30, 2011 & 2010
Unit : MMTHB
37
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk
Debt Portfolio
Managed debt according to financial risk and policy
Consolidated PTT Only Unit : MMTHB
193,454 197,877 183,226
258,991 255,860 242,042
63,979 68,30876,022
84,147114,442
164,244
31 Dec 09 31 Dec 10 30 Sep 11 31 Dec 09 31 Dec 10 30 Sep 11
USD THB
343,138
266,185 257,443
370,302
(25%)
(75%)
(26%)
(74%)
(31%)
(69%)
(25%)
(75%)
(29%)
(71%)
(40%)
(60%)
38
259,248
406,286
: Cost of debts ~ 4.39 %
: % fixed-rate ~ 82.9 %
: Avg. debt life ~ 6.1 years
: Cost of debts ~ 5.06 %
: % fixed-rate ~ 90 %
: Avg. debt life ~ 7.2 years
Note : Data as of 30 Sept 2011 (THB/USD = 31.3072 THB/JPY = 0.4109 ) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.
PTT We Care
39
Flood Impact to PTT Group : Worst crisis, Limited impact
Tentative Q4/11 Volume Impact
Remarks
E&P 5%
• 13,000 BOED loss from flood
PTT
Gas Business 10%
• Sales vol. decreased from 4,249 mmscfd (Avg. Q3/11) to 3,794 mmscfd (Last week avg. of Oct)
Oil Business 15%
• 185 out of 1,311 gas stations closed • Currently 51 gas stations reopened • Sales vol. decreased from 60 ML/D (Avg. Q3/11)
to 51 ML/D (Last week avg. of Oct)
Petrochemical 10%* • Excess supplies exported
Refining No Impact • Sales volume shifted to upcountry • Demand expected to rebound post-flooding
40 *Impact from feedstock reduction due to decrease utilization rate of GSP
PTT’s Contribution : Towards Nation Restoration
41
Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long Term Natural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
mmscfd
Source : PTT
Power
GSP
Industry
77%
21%
8%
1,970
13%
17%
18%
60% 57%
Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2011-2030) : Total ~ 1% : Power ~ 1% : GSP ~ 0% : Industry ~ 3% : NGV ~ 3%
15%
NGV 8%
6%
5,493
42
91.1
116.8 113.3
52.744.1
59.1
67.975.4 75.9 78.0 73.9 84.4
100.5
110.7 107.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11
Dubai FO ULG95 MOP'S HSD MOP'S
Dubai 91.1 116.8 113.3 52.7 44.1 59.1 67.9 75.4 75.9 78.0 73.9 84.4 100.5 110.7 107.1
FO 74.6 92.6 102.6 45.1 39.0 53.4 64.9 70.9 72.8 71.4 69.1 76.1 93.3 102.1 105.4
Gasoline MOP'S 105.1 129.8 119.6 56.7 54.8 68.8 76.8 80.5 88.2 87.5 82.5 95.0 113.1 125.0 125.9
HSD MOP'S 114.4 154.5 139.5 70.5 53.2 66.4 74.9 81.6 85.2 89.5 86.3 96.0 118.7 130.8 125.8
Oil Prices Movement: Our Key Value Driver
Price (USD/BBL)
43
Dubai 2010 avg. = $78/bbl
Dubai 2009 avg. = $62/bbl
Dubai 2009 avg. = $93/bbl
Dubai 2010 avg. = $106/bbl
Oil prices
Dubai FO Gasoline Diesel
Q3/11 vs Q2/11 -3% 3% 1% -4%
Q3/11 vs Q3/10 45% 53% 53% 46%
44
Aromatics prices
$/Ton $/Ton
LPG Naptha PP HDPE
Q3/11 vs Q2/11 -8% -3% -3% 2%
Q3/11 vs Q3/10 37% 59% 27% 25%
Benzene Paraxylene
Q3/11 vs Q2/11 -2% 4%
Q3/11 vs Q3/10 34% 71%
832 841
854953
1,510
1,6061,607
1,399
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
LPG Naphtha PP HDPE
Petrochemical prices
1,051 1,118
1,169
1,567
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Benzene PX
Source: PLATTS & ICIS 44
Petrochemical Market Reference Prices: Driven by Crude Oil Price
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00% Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00% PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00% PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00% Retail Business Alliance Co., Ltd. RBA* 49.00% Associates Equity Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00% Vietnam LPG Co., Ltd. VLPG 45.00% Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd. THAPPLINE 33.19% PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00% Others Cost PetroAsia (Huizhou) Co., Ltd. PA(Huizhou) 25.00% PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 2.76% Others Fair Value Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%
45
Others
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00% Combined Heat and Power producing Co.,Ltd CHPP 100.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00% Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00% District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00% Associates Equity Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd. TP 26.00% Independent Power (Thailand) Co., Ltd. IPT 20.00% PTT Utility Co., Ltd. PTTUT 40.00% B.Grimm BIP Power Co., Ltd. B.Grimm BIP 23.00% Nava Nakorn Electricity Generation Co.,Ltd NNEG 30.00% Bangpa-in Cogeneration, Ltd BIC 25.00% Others Cost Ratchaburi Power Co., Ltd. RPCL 15.00%
Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00% PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00% PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00% Associates Equity PTT Chemical Plc. PTTCH 49.14% PTT Phenol Co., Ltd. PPCL 40.00% PTT Maintenance and Engineering Co., Ltd.PTTME 40.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44% PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50% PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PMBC 50.00% Refining Associates Equity Thai Oil Plc. TOP 49.10% PTT Aromatics and Refining Plc. PTTAR 48.45% IRPC Plc. IRPC 38.52% Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00% Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 27.22% PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTES 40.00%
Others Fair Value Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Co., Ltd. PTTI 100.00%
Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00%
International Trading Business Group
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%
Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group
Associates Equity PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT 20.00%
E&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group
Data as of 30 September 2011
PTT 10.8%
PTTEP 6.9%
PTTGC 3.3%
TOP 1.4%
IRPC 1.0%
BCP & Others 0.4%
Others 76.1%
PTT Group 23.9%
59.9 46.2
59.9
139
2008 2009 2010 2020
Revenue (Billion USD)
46
PTT’s Strategic Importance to the Thai Economy
PTT has the largest market cap on the SET
Data as of 9 September 2011
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT
Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company
SET Market Cap = Baht 8.5 trillion
Data as of 4 January 2012
Remark: * DJSI = Dow Jones Sustainability Index
Rev.of 100th company in Fortune Global 500 (Billion USD)
Fortune Global 500 Ranking
64.9 65.0 68.1
118
155
128
100
Need new initiatives
Vayupak Fund 15% Public
34%
Ministry of
Finance 51%
Coal
Power Palm Plantation
Pipeline
8.5 9 10.7 11.1-11.312.0-12.5
14.0-14.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jembayan Sebuku
Future Growth of PTT
PTT International
Unit : MM Ton
2011 Xayaburi Hydro 1,285 MW
2012 Onwards
Expanding in neighboring
countries
SAR
PTT Green Energy
EMG (Egypt)
• 225,877 Ha land acquired
• 12,335 Ha planted
o Additional 15,785 Ha has been
prepared in 2011.
• 45 T/Hr CPO Mill has been completed
• Acquired Izin Prinsip for the Northern Leases at Sebuku
• Potential reserves in Brunei & Madagascar projects
• Investing 25% in EMG
• Offshore natural gas pipeline system
from Egypt to Israel
• 2010 Sales volume = 2.1 BCM/y
• 2011 Average sales volume target up to 0.8
BCM/y
47
Thailand’s projected energy demand
Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010/ PTT team analysis 48
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Commercial Primary Energy Consumption
38%
33%
14%
13%
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal/Lignite
Hydro/Import
KTOE
27%
33%
17%
6%
15%
Renewable
2%
163,299
145,162
127,145
106,939
87,651
32%
38%
14%
13% 3%
29%
35%
16%
5%
14%
31%
37%
15%
4% 13%
2%
1% Nuclear
49
Natural Gas Price Structure
Customers Sales Price Structure
Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs + +
Power Producers 61%
: EGAT 28%
: IPP 21%
: SPP 12%
Average Purchased Gas Price
1.75%
1.75%
9.33%
21.8 Bt/MMBtu
GSP 21% Charged at the same price structure of power producers
Petrochemicals Feedstocks
Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price
Industry 12% Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil
Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.
NGV 6% Capped at 8.5 Baht/Kg*
* Government will increase NGV retail price Baht 0.50 /kg per month from January 16, 2012 until January 15, 2013
Ethane, Propane, LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals
NGL Reference to Naphtha market price
Local Cooking Gas
Export Cooking Gas
Capped at 333 USD/ton
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions
Recognition: Awards 2010-2012 PTT is widely recognized among business communities both international and local
Best CEO 2010 Best CFO 2010 Best Managed Company 2010 Best Corporate Governance 2010 Best Investor Relations 2010 Best Corporate Social Responsibility 2010 Best Commitment to Strong Dividend Policy 2010
Asian Corporate Director Recognition Awards 2011 & 2012
• Asia’s Best CEO • Asia’s Best CFO • Best IR Website/Promotion • Best Environmental Responsibility • Best Investor Relations • Best Investor Relations Professional
Thai BMA Best Bond Awards 2010 • Deal of the Year • Most Creative Issue • Best Investor Relations Issuer
SET Awards • Top Corporate Governance Report Award
2010 & 2011 • Best Corporate Social responsibility
Awards 2011
Trusted Brand 2011 • Thailand’s Top Brand in Platinum Award
for service station
Outstanding State Enterprise Award 2010 • Best State Enterprise of the Year, Best
of the Best • Outstanding Leadership Award • Outstanding Innovation Award
50
Asia Talent Management 10th Asia Business Leaders Award 2011
7th Top Asia Energy Companies of 2010 35th Top Global Energy Companies of 2010
128th Fortune Global 500 of 2011 (155th in 2010 / 118th in 2009)
171th The Biggest Listed Companies in the World 2011 (196th in 2010 / 244th in 2009)