UBS Annual Global Health Care Services Conference February 15, 2005 The Plaza, New York City...
-
Upload
barbara-richardson -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
1
Transcript of UBS Annual Global Health Care Services Conference February 15, 2005 The Plaza, New York City...
UBS Annual Global Health Care Services ConferenceFebruary 15, 2005The Plaza, New York City
PacifiCare Health SystemsPacifiCare Health SystemsGregory W. ScottGregory W. ScottExecutive Vice President andExecutive Vice President andChief Executive OfficerChief Executive Officer
The statements made during this presentation that are not The statements made during this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements within the historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal securities laws, and may involve a meaning of the Federal securities laws, and may involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause number of risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations include, but actual results to differ materially from expectations include, but are not limited to, the risks discussed in the company's most are not limited to, the risks discussed in the company's most recent filings with the SEC, including the Form 10Q filed as of recent filings with the SEC, including the Form 10Q filed as of September 30, 2004, and the Form10K filed as of December September 30, 2004, and the Form10K filed as of December 31, 2003. 31, 2003.
Cautionary StatementCautionary Statement
A Fortune 200 company with:• $12 billion in revenue• 2.6 million commercial lives• 704K Medicare Advantage lives• 11.8 million specialty lives
Strategy of a growth company
PHS 8 health plan markets before acquisitionsPHS 8 health plan markets before acquisitions
PHS Only Markets2004 Markets – Pre-AMS Acquisition
Expansion through recent acquisitions
28 Additional medical states after AMS acquisition28 Additional medical states after AMS acquisition
PHS Only Markets
2005 Markets – Post-AMS Acquisition
AMS Only MarketsPHS & AMS Overlaps
Completed 12/04 Completed 12/04
Expansion through recent acquisitions
Significant additional overlap with Pacific Life Significant additional overlap with Pacific Life acquisition acquisition
PHS Only Markets
2005 Markets - Post Acquisitions
AMS Only MarketsPHS/AMS/Pac Life Overlaps
1Q ‘05 Close 1Q ‘05 Close Target Target
American Medical Security Group (AMS)
• Adds ~314K ISG PPO lives- 13% commercial member increase
• Lower cost PPO operations on scalable ISG platform
• Network of 32,000 independent agents increases distribution for PHS products/services
• $100 million in excess statutory capital
• Commercial growth/diversification balances Medicare Advantage business
• Geographic expansion diversifies away from CA
• Potential network, PBM & cross sell synergies
ISG Market Segment Acquisitions
Pacific Life’s Group Health Business
• Leverages AMS acquisition
• Adds ~140K small/large group PPO lives- 6% commercial member increase
• Network of 30,000 agents increases distribution for PHS products/services
• Commercial growth/diversification balances Medicare Advantage business
• Geographic expansion diversifies away from CA
• 55% member overlap w/ PHS; 95% overlap w/ combined PHS/AMS = network synergies
ISG Market Segment Acquisitions
2005 Guidance- Excluding Pacific Life
• Commercial mbrshp. growth: 3.0%-3.5%• Medicare Advantage ending mbrs: 743K• Revenue increase:15%• MLRs
• Consolidated = 84%-85%• Private Commercial = 81%-82%• Private Senior = 73%-74%• Government Senior = 87.5%-88.5%
• Gross Margins• Commercial = 18%-19%• Senior = 11.5%-12.5%• Specialty & Other = 36%-37%
• EBITDA: $745-$770 million• CFFO:$500-$525 million• Free Cash Flow: $320-$335 million• SG&A ratio: 12.5%-13%• Depreciation/Amortization: $85 million • Capital expenditures: $120-$125 million• Net Income: $360-$375 million• Average outstanding shares: 98.8 million• EPS: $3.64-$3.80
• Q1 = $0.85-$0.89• Tax rate: 39.1%
Includes effect of FAS 123R on equity based compensationIncludes effect of FAS 123R on equity based compensation
= 19%-24% = 19%-24% Net Income GrowthNet Income Growth
Earnings growth
Net Income
$243
$139
$19
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
2001 2002* 2003 2004 2005 est.^
* Excluding effect of the adoption of FAS 142 relating to the amortization of goodwill* Excluding effect of the adoption of FAS 142 relating to the amortization of goodwill
^ Includes acquisition of American Medical Security Group & proposed acquisition of ^ Includes acquisition of American Medical Security Group & proposed acquisition of Pacific Life’s group health insurance business Pacific Life’s group health insurance business
$303$303
$360-$375$360-$375
Planned evolution from a traditional health maintenance organization into a leading consumer health organization
HMODIVERSIFIED INSURANCE COMPANY
CONSUMER HEALTH
ORGANIZATION
PacifiCare Vision
The rise of HSAs & CDHPs
• Continued cost shifting to employees, but without a value proposition
• 5% HSA penetration rate by 12/31/06
• HSAs appeal to healthy/wealthy
• HSAs likely to replace traditional PPO vs. HMO
• Hewitt survey finds: • 61% of employers likely to offer HSAs in near future• 93% of employees willing to take more responsibility for health
care decisions
• Not total replacement, but additional option
On-Going Support -Care Management
•Disease Mgmt/ Web Admin•Health Credits
•Women’s Health•Flexible Spending Account•Ethnic Diversity Programs
Specialty Offerings•Pharmacy
•Dental & Vision•Behavioral
•Life/STD/LTD•Caregiver
•PAN
Front End Decision Support
•Quality Index Profiles•Benefit Selection Pricer•Health Risk Assessment
•Worksite/Web Based Tools•On-Line Enrollment
Low Cost High Cost
Signature Freedom
Signature Independence
SignatureValueSelect Hospital
PlanSignatureValue
Advantage
SignatureOptionsAdvantage
SignatureValueTraditional
PlanSignatureOptions
TraditionalPlan
HSA/SDHP
HMO/EPOPPO
Indemnity
PacifiCare offers a total solution
Employee Responsibility$1,000 to $2,000
In-Network70%
Out-of-Network50%
Self Directed Account$1,000
Covered Services (apply to deductible):• Physician Office Visits
• Wellness & Preventive Care• Office-based Diagnostic Tests
AnnualDeductible
$2,000
In-Network70%
PPOBenefit
Plan
100% After Coinsurance Maximum
$$ Employee Responsibility$1,000 to $2,000
Out-of-Network50%
Rx$10
generic$35
brand
SignatureFreedom Plan Design
SignatureFreedom Growth
• Approximately 10% from groups that did not previously offer insurance
• 75% from Small Group (2 to 50 employees)
• 90% from customers new to PacifiCare
82,172 Members82,172 Members82,172 Members82,172 Members
• Participants are using appropriate levels of preventive services
43%60%
125%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Physician OfficeVisits Physical Exams Well Baby Exams
vs. PPO (High Ded - $1,500)
Emerging SignatureFreedom Utilization Results
PacifiCare data is normalized (age/sex) incurred claims from 8/03 to 7/04 paid through 10/04
(23%)
(38%)
(25%) (24%)
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
InpatientAdmits
InpatientDays ER visits Ambulance
vs. PPO (High Ded - $1,500)
PacifiCare data is normalized (age/sex) incurred claims from 8/03 to 7/04 paid through 10/04
Emerging SignatureFreedom Utilization Results
• Participants are using appropriate levels of preventive services
Specialty company growth
630
1,130
1,640
2,070
2,560
3,500
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E
Mill
ions
Prescription Solutions’ Unaffiliated MembershipPrescription Solutions’ Unaffiliated Membership
Specialty company growth
Prescription Solutions' Revenue
$340 $394 $403
$704$472
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000A* 2001A* 2002A 2003A 2004A^ 2005E^
$ M
illi
on
s
Internal External
* Breakout of internal vs. external revenue is not available prior to CY 2002.
^ Revenue increases related to a change in contracting methodology from the gross method to the net method for retail prescription drug transactions ~$50M in 2004, ~ $860M in 2005 mainly for PHS contract.
$1,647$1,647
Mail Service Revenue & Mail Order Penetration
$296$341 $328
$387
$537$602
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E
$ M
illio
ns
Specialty company growth
18.7%18.7%20.3%20.3% 18.4%18.4%
20.6%20.6%
26.0%26.0%
25.3%25.3%
Medicare opportunities
Medicare Advantage HMO/ Private FFS
Part D Administration
Medicare Supplement
Medicare Advantage Regional PPO
Local Medicare Advantage growth- Timeline
• All 2006 plan applications due All 2006 plan applications due March 23rdMarch 23rd
• ’’06 Benchmark HMO rates issued 06 Benchmark HMO rates issued April 4April 4thth (Parts A/B) (Parts A/B)
• Health plan bids for Parts A, B & D due Health plan bids for Parts A, B & D due June 6June 6thth
• National average monthly Part D bid announced National average monthly Part D bid announced August 3August 3rdrd
• CMS benefit plan approval CMS benefit plan approval September 14thSeptember 14th
• CMS website launches comparative plan data CMS website launches comparative plan data October 13thOctober 13th
Medicare opportunities
Medicare Advantage HMO
• MLR rises from ~86% in ’04, to 87.5%-88.5% in ’05• Focus on increasing membership vs. margins• 2006 growth depends on flexibility with benefit structure• Growth initiatives:
• Preferred provider relationships• Broker distribution• Geographic expansion• Value Plans• Community & faith-based organization marketing• Small acquisitions
Medicare opportunities
Medicare Advantage Private FFS
• Entering as many as 16 states by the end of 2005 • Nearly identical to MA HMO program, but no contracted
provider network
• Health Plans pay providers at Medicare FFS rates
Part D Administration- Potential market
• Approximately 42 million Medicare eligibles in the U.S.
• MA penetration ~12% = 5 million
• Eligible for FFS Part D ~ 37 million• Includes ~6 million dual eligibles to be auto-enrolled• Penalty for not enrolling = 1% per month
• In terms of drug spend, 42 million seniors equivalent of 150 commercial lives
Medicare opportunities
Medicare opportunities
Part D Administration- PHS capabilities
• Captive PBM w/ external focus
• Broad distribution capabilities• State-of-the-art mail facility• National pharmacy network
• Risk-based business model
• 10 years of senior prescription drug data
• Managed care tools to control costs, improve outcomes
• Additional marketing channels• Direct TV/radio advertising• Direct mail• Recent acquisitions• Broker distribution
Medicare opportunities
Part D Administration- Short term considerations
Costs for:• Building up infrastructure
• IT, software, processing• Local MA and Part D Administration
• Building up customer service platform
• Marketing expenses
✔✔ ✔✔
✔✔ ✔✔
✔✔
FixedFixed VariableVariable
Total ~$50 millionTotal ~$50 millionNot included in
Not included in
’05 guidance
’05 guidance