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3

A lot has already been said about Uber. Indeed it seems that a new article about the half-fascinating, half-scary young giant is published every hour on the internet. So why a study?

It seemed to us that most of current discussions about Uber are driven by ideologies and belief systems. We wanted to take a step back and just look at it from a business perspective. What are its secrets? How did it grow so fast? Of course it has unlimited cash, but isn’t there more to it?

Very bright people have already shared a vast amount of food for thought on the social and legal impacts of Uber so we won’t be going over these topics here.

Anyhow, whether you want to support Uber, fight it or just understand the world we’re living in, there is much to learn about this spectacular “coup d’état” in the transportation world. It’s up to you to make use of this information to serve what you believe is best for all of us.

Enjoy the ride!

We’re only talking business here.

Stéphane DistinguinCEO of FABERNOVEL

Foreword

Uber: faster, higher, stronger

Sources: The Verge, Reuters, The Washington Post, Uber. Number of trips per day as of December 2015; number of drivers as of June2015; the billion trips threshold was crossed on December 30th, 2015.

5

Uber is available in 470 cities across 70 countries, competing directly with local transportation actors. Its biggest market is China, with one third of its total rides.

Sources: Uber, National Post

Eating the world - one city after the other

London UK

15,00020,000

1000 UBER DRIVERS 1000 TAXIS

6

Uber’s valuation is the largest for a private startup in the world – and in history. In total Uber raised $14bn over 16 rounds in 7 years from banks (Goldman Sachs…) & VCs (Benchmark, fidelity…) , tech giants (Google, Baidu…) and tech stars like Amazon’s CEO Jeff Bezos.

MARKET CAP TO A BILLION

The most valued startup In the world

Uber reached a $50Bn valuation in 5 years (with $1.5Bn in revenue at the time). Along Facebook, it is the only startup to have reached such a valuation.

Xiaomi$46Bn

Airbnb$25.5Bn

Uber$68Bn

Sources: Exponential Organizations (by Salim Ismail), The Wall Street Journal

Fastest metabolism so far

7

• Uber is worth more than 85% of S&P 500 companies.

• Valued at 6x more than the size of the taxi & limo market in the US before Uber entered the market.

• GM has 32x more employees than Uber despite a lower valuation.

• Yet Uber’s driver network far exceeds GM head count.

In less than 7 years of existence, Uber has already surpassed the valuation of the 108 year old carmaker General Motors.

NU

MBE

R O

F EM

PLO

YEES

MAR

KET

CAP

/ VAL

UAT

ION

Sources: Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Barrons, Business Insider, General Motors, TechCrunch, The Washington Post.

Growing higher than historical actorsUber: the transportation virus

But how ?WHAT ARE THE YOUNG GIANT’S SECRETS ? HOW DID IT GROW SO FAST TO TAKE OVER THE WORLD ?

Since its beginning Uber has been behaving like a virus. Wikipedia defines a virus as “a sub-microscopic infectious agent that replicates only inside the living cells of other organisms.” A virus isn’t necessarily harmful, it is only defined by its ability so self-replicate and spread fast. In Uber’s case the host organisms are the millions of cars flooding our cities. Uber is infecting hundreds everyday and taking control of transportation in our growing metropolises.

01. Synthesize it

Identify a poorly-served market and develop a platform to serve it 10 times

better.

03. Become contagious

Leverage your user base and make partnerships to increase virality

04.Mutate fast

Never stop innovating to enlarge your market and annihilate

competition.

05. Defend

Protect your market against safeguards and competitors or

you’ll be replaced.

02. Seed germs

Find the best environment to incubate under favorable circumstances. Do things that don’t scale

to kick-start your network and reach liquidity.

Uber: the transportation virus

01. Synthesize it

Identify a poorly-served market and develop a platform to serve it 10 times better.

11

Uber ’s founding idea dates back to 2008 in Paris at LeWebconference, when Travis Kalanick and Garrett Camp couldn’t find a taxi in the cold Paris winter. Impossible to find a cab to hail, ordering on a phone was expensive, and they couldn’t find the nearby taxi station.

There are three ways to get a taxi, and none of them combines low price, reliable pickup time and good experience.

Hailing a cabAt a taxi station

Order with phone

Not reliable because demand > offer

In many countries, one has to pay for the waiting time

There aren’t much taxi stations and one has to walk

long distances to find one

Sources: Uber

Identifying the incompatibility triangle

12

Uber’s core value proposition resides in a simple but ambitious objective: a ride at the tap of a button. To deliver on its promise, it created a well-designed app that took the dispatch function out of the black car and traditional taxi markets.

Partner AppRider App

Push a button and get a rideUber puts 100% of the taxi experience on your mobile

“I want to go from point A to point B”

“I want to drive someone from point A to point B”

Request a car. A driver is dispatched.

Indicate you’re available. Once you receive a request

just pick up your rider.

A simple solution: a ride at the tap of a button

13

• One-click order • See your driver approaching

• Check pickup time• Check driver’s

ratings

• Uber ride is tracked (information & security)

• Seamless payment

• 5-star rating

• Street hailing • Fees for booking ahead• The driver choses you

• Unknown duration• No taxi tracking

• Cash payment required in many countries

• No customer service

Taxi UX filled with pain points…

Seamless Uber UX

Improving every step of the experience

14

Uber has built its whole service on top of infrastructures set out by GAFA (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple). Now that it has grown big, is slowly gaining independence; for example from Google Maps by acquiring DeCarta and Bing Maps.

Access to users

-

Driver navigation

-

Payment

-App distribution on the App Store, Google Play, Amazon Echo and soon Facebook Messenger.

Google Maps used to geolocate cars and users as well as to help drivers navigate.

Google Wallet and Apple Pay are used to complete transactions.

Source: Uber

Gaining speed thanks to GAFA’s infrastructure

15

Leveraging smartphone’s sensors, Uber is able to precisely locate, identify and connect every car and every user to its platform. Smartphones are the indispensable tool to Uber’s success, by bridging the gap between the digital and the physical worlds.

“In the networked world, the three most important things are connections, connections and connections”

Marc Andreessen & Venkatesh Rao

MVP insight: smartphone + car = connected car

An asset-light model

Uber has become a major actor on the connected car market by simply attaching a smartphone to all the cars of its fleet. No need to invest billions in CAPEX when you can leverage existing, customer-owned assets.

Networks are the new asset

Uber created a network of real-time geolocated riders and drivers, commonly called a platform. It gives access to this network through its app, in order to efficiently match demand for transportation with supply.

Uber: a real-time transportation network

As seen in GAFAnomics Season 2, networks are the winning structure of the 21st century and are at the core of GAFA’s success.

Network orchestrators outperform traditional companies on both revenue growth and margins.

Average revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2011-2012

Source: Harvard Business Review (authors: Barry Libert, Megan Beck Fenley, Yoram Wind)Source: GAFAnomics Season 2, FABERNOVEL

Networks: 21st century’s winning model

Its network gives Uber a structural competitive advantage over traditional taxi companies. As explained in GAFAnomics Season 2, Uber embraces 4 Superpowers to orchestrate and optimize its transportation network.

Magnet enterpriseAggregating and managing very small units–Networked companies are able to detect, organize and animate very small units of value. They outsource value creation.

Real-time enterpriseInstantly tuning value–

Networked companies use real-time data feedback to instantly optimize market fit and improve products’ value.

Infinite enterpriseShooting for the 100% profit consumer–

Networked companies use highly scalable software and services to achieve zero cost delivery once critical user mass is achieved.

Intimate enterpriseHospitality is the norm–

Networked companies use customer knowledge to fine-tune and personalize the experiences they deliver to each customer. Large-scale customization is at the heart of their products.

Unlocking four superpowers

19

In the US, cars remain idle 96% of the time. Uber could have bought a fleet of cars to become a black car service. Instead it structured itself as a platform to aggregate, sell and monetize this excess capacity by allowing anyone to opt-in and drive people around with their own cars.

MAGNET ENTERPRISE

Pays for ride

Gives 80% of the fares

Provides ride

Matches riders with driversKeeps 20% of service fees

Sources: The Guardian, Uber

Managing cars’ excess capacity

A very similar approach to Airbnb’s revolution of the accommodation market:

“Essentially, we’ve built a platform to facilitate payments, reviews, search. […] I like to think hosts are micro-entrepreneurs and we give them a hospitality tool kit.” 

 Nathan BlecharczykCTO Airbnb

Provides carPays for gas

20

Trust and safety are essential parts of the Uber experience. Could you have imagined riding in a stranger’s car a few years ago? That’s why Uber introduced its rating system, a concept developpeda decade ago by eBay. But it’s also a smart way to delegate the management of its drivers to users and maintain the standard of service with more than 3 million ratings gathered everyday.

Uber created a feedback loop by asking riders and drivers to rate each other after each ride. Drivers with an average rating below 4.6� are at risk of being denied access to the platform. Uber doesn’t hold the reputation, drivers do. And Uber doesn’t fire drivers, riders do when they give drivers less than 4,6 �.

DRIVE WELL OR DON’T

THE CUSTOMER IS KING

Most of the extra-services provided by drivers are not mandatory. Think about free bottles of water or opening the door. Even wearing a suit ! They’re “suggestions” to get 5� ratings. Ratings incentivize drivers to please riders. Hopefully; riders also behave correctly with drivers to get a good rating.

Source: Uber

MAGNET ENTERPRISE

Turning riders into managers

GAME OVER

21

REACHING LONG-TERM MARKET EQUILIBRIUM

ADAPTING SUPPLY TO DEMAND IN REAL TIME

Uber fixes prices in each city based on local data. Whenever it can, Uber lowers prices to trigger an increase in demand and decrease drivers’ idle time, thus maintaining drivers’ hourly rates. In some cities, it cut prices 5 to 6 times in a 3-year period.

With surge pricing, Uber increases prices in given areas during excessive demand or low supply:• Provides an incentive for drivers to flock to empty

neighborhoods while cabs don’t know where the demand is higher.

• Maintains low pickup time and high utilization in case of market stress.

Surge pricing eliminates 2/3 of unfulfilled requests in a period of high demand.

REAL-TIME ENTERPRISE

Always priced at the optimum

Uber leverages data to optimize its pricing in real-time and make sure demand and offer always reach a market equilibrium. Data gathered is relative to rides facilitated, local transportation offers and users’ price elasticity. Pricing is a tough challenge for Uber: drivers want to maximize revenues while riders want to minimize costs. That’s the platform dilemma.

22

Uber dispatches one trip every second in London, optimizing pickups in real time.

Having thousands of cars is not enough. You need to make sure they’re at the right place, at the right time. While traditional taxis wait in line expecting for customers to show up at the taxi station, Uber leverages geolocation data to instantly matches riders with drivers. Thanks to its powerful dispatch algorithm, it optimizes car allocation to minimize drivers’ idle time and rider’s waiting time. Reliability is key to Uber’s goal: ”a car at the tap of a button”.

Uber tests its dispatch algorithms with AI simulations on a 100x100 blocks virtual city.

A strong differentiation from data-blind legacy taxi systems. Close to 60% of SF taxis are dispatched in more than 10 min.

In major cities, average pick-up time is around 3 minutes

Sources: The Guardian, Travis Kalanick, Forbes

REAL-TIME ENTERPRISE

A data-driven optimization engine

23

Uber constantly adapts its services to fine-tune and personalize the experience based on customer needs and usage scenarios. Uber develops a wide variety of offers to target users with different elasticities. For some, reliability is more important, others value low prices while for some a premium experience is the main selling point.

Lauren & Tim, 45 years oldTime sensitive entrepreneursExperience sensitive -Have 2 children

UberBLACK for occasional usage.UberBERLINE for professional rides on their Uber business profilesFamily profiles to pay for their children’s rides on sundays

John, 30 years oldDoctor - Price sensitiveLives far from public transport

UberCOMMUTE to go to work on a daily basis without taking care of parking

Carl, 24 years oldStudent - Price sensitiveLikes to go out a lot

UberX occasionallyUberPOOL at night on week ends

INTIMATE ENTERPRISE

Diversifying to adapt to users’ needs

24

Uber is available in more than 70 countries. Each market has its own specificities made of expectations, restrictions and preoccupations. Uber doesn’t hesitate to tweak, enrich and personalize its offers to conquer these new markets.

Uber launched UberMOTO in towns where two-wheelers are the preferred means of transportation: Thailand, India, Indonesia… It launched UberGREEN in eco-conscious countries like Portugal or UberBOAT in Istanbul to cross the Bosphorus.

ADAPTING Payment methods

TAILORINGTypes of vehicles

Uber adapts its payment methods according to the context of the market. In India and Egypt, where credit card is not the norm, Uber introduced cash payment, making the service available to more users.

DEVELOPINGExtra services

In India, passengers’ safety remains a real concern for Uber. As a result, it launched an in-app SOS button. This button automatically sends trip information to relatives and local police authorities. It can also directly call India’s emergency number.

Source: Uber

INTIMATE ENTERPRISE

Adapting to local specificities

Uber uses highly scalable software and services to achieve zero cost delivery once critical user mass is achieved. It doesn’t own any of the cars it dispatches, already cutting down many costs incurred by legacy taxi companies (medallion, car…). In addition, it has automatized all steps of the taxi experience apart from the ride itself. Uber can scale and grow indefinitely at virtually no additional cost.

• Request ride at GPS location

• Pick up rider at GPS location

• Ride information• Tracking

• Seamless payment• Shareable ride

8,000 drivers in Paris270 phone operators (to dispatch cars)

1 operator for 30 drivers

1 million drivers worldwide<100 phone operator

If the booking process hadn’t been automated, Uber would have needed to hire 33,000 phone operators. (5x its current global staff)

• Seamless payment• Shareable ride

CLOSE TO FULL AUTOMATION OLD VS NEW WORLD

Source: G7

INFINITE ENTERPRISE

Scaling at zero marginal cost

Order & Pick-up Ride

Payment Customer service

Automated through the app

Thanks to its network structure, Uber benefits from network effects when it reaches critical mass. A network effect occurs when a product or a service becomes more valuable to its users as more people use it. Network effects explain Uber’s exponential growth and raise high barriers to entry for new comers.

Sources: David Sacks (CEO of Zenefits),Uber, Hall & Krueger

More drivers, means more cars in the streets, thus more geographical coverage

Less driver down time, means Uber can lower price/ride while maintaining stable hourly rates

for driversMore geographical coverage means less distance between a car and a potential rider, thus faster pickups

Lower prices make Uber more accessible , thus increase demand

More demand means better opportunities for aspiring drivers, thus increase offerFaster pickups make Uber more

reliable, thus increase demand

INFINITE ENTERPRISE

Network effects and value loop: deadly weapons

27

By creating a connected network of drivers and riders, Uber changed the personal transportation network for ever: “a ride at the tap of a button” became a reality. Thanks to its network structure, Uber benefited from the 4 superpowers and solved the incompatibility triangle, offering a better, cheaper and more reliable experience day after day.

By leveraging excess capacities, Uber ensures low prices

By leveraging data and algorithms, Uber ensures reliability at all time

By tailoring its service to users, Uber ensures an optimal experience

By automatizing processes, Uber ensures low prices. Thanks to network effects it keeps decreasing prices and increasing reliability.

Incompatibility triangle solved

02. Seed germs

Find the best environment to incubate under favorable circumstances. Do things that don’t scale to kick-start your network and reach liquidity.

The transportation behemoth is available in more than 470 cities in 70 countries across the globe. With a city-by-city approach, it has created local networks of drivers and riders. Since its creation in 2010, Uber has opened a new city every 5 days and 8 hours.

2009

2014 2012

2011

2013

2013

“Being local and speaking with local voice is important when you're doing transportation” (T.Kalanick)

Uber has spread locally, or globally

In a networked world, markets concentrate around one monopoly. The winning platform is not the first mover but the first settler: the first that reaches liquidity, a state where there is enough volume of supply and demand, for transactions to start sparking. In Uber’s case it means enough drivers and riders to ensure “a ride at the tap of a button” for both.

Sources: Greylock Partners, platformed.info

First settlers always win

FIRST MOVER FIRST SETTLER

“Liquidity isn’t the most important thing, it’s the only thing.”

Simon RothmanGreylock Partners

GAFAnomics® is all about the “first settler advantage”

31

In every market it enters, Uber aims at building liquidity to benefit from the first settler ’sadvantage. It uses abundant funding to absorb high operating costs aimed at aggressively buildthe initial demand and supply. Once reached, network effects start taking off, annihilating anyhope of competition and triggering huge revenue growth. Uber’s network represent its asset. Ituses OPEX to build CAPEX.

Uber lost a total of $1.7 billion over the first three quarters of 2015.

It registered a loss of $1 billion for the year 2015 alone trying to compete in China.

According to its CEO, after years of loss, the company is now profitable in North America, Australia, Europe, Middle-East and Africa

Sources: Tech-Thoughts, Business Insider, BetaKit

Liquidity first, profits later

Uber’s revenues vs operating costs (2012-2014)

32

The presence of “accelerants” that could trigger demand

To make sure it can reach liquidity fast, Uber carefully selects each city beforehand according to a set of criteria, in search for the perfect ecosystem to launch.

• Restaurants and nightlife• Bad Weather• Sports

• The presence of a constrained number of taxis

• The quality of public transports

The intensity of rivalry

• Size of the city and its suburbs

• Standards of living• Quality of urban

infrastructures

General data about the city

Sources: TheNextWeb, GrowthHackers

Invest in favorable market conditions

Uber leverages existing data by using app opening in unsupported cities to gauge interest for its service

An existing demand for Uber

33

Because it is multi-local by nature, Uber has an horizontal organization that offers high autonomy to each town’s office. Uber adopts a startup approach when launching in a new town with minor oversight from the Californian headquarters.For each new city, Uber selects a launcher, whose role is to get the business up-and-running in 8 weeks or less. Uber has already launched a city in less than 5 days!

“We basically find the top talent in [the most relevant communities in that city] and give them the opportunity to run their own business ”

Lay out a marketing strategy to attract customers

Build a pricing structure

Find a team and office

Find the initial supply of drivers

Identify business development opportunities (partnership with car operators, co-promotions)

J. PalaniappaUBER REGIONAL GENERAL MANAGER FOR EASTERN EUROPE / MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

TASK

LIS

T

Understand the transportation ecosystemand relevant regulation

Source: City A.M.

Launching with the A-team

To be first to liquidity, Uber has bought its supply through various mechanisms, lowering onboarding barriers for drivers.

Cannibalize the existing network of drivers

Attract drivers with hourly guarantees

Poach local taxi drivers and TNC drivers, even from competitors (Uber is believed to have aggressively recruited Lyft drivers).

Offer cash incentives to new drivers ($500).

Uber offers a guaranteed revenue to drivers when launching in a new town (up to 30$/h).

Drivers turn on the app and get paid regardless the number of clients they serve. A smart way to maintain the level of supply while building demand.

Uber forges partnerships with car manufacturers and car resellers offering to buy, lease and rent cars at preferred prices to drivers.

Uber promotes its own vehicle financing programs through partnerships with financial institutions.

Lower onboardingbarriers for drivers

Sources: The Verge, Uber

Building the supply side aggressively

Once it has drivers on the road, Uber focuses on bringing in riders on its platform through sponsored events and free rides for influencers who could spread the word about Uber’s value proposition.

“ In many cases, the importance of the early adopter tech community can be overstated. In Uber’s case it cannot. […] Uber was highly active at local-area

tech and venture capital events and provided free rides to attendees. Uber knew that these attendees were well connected and highly likely to share their

experiences with friends, tech press, and social media audiences after trying Uber.”

Travis Kalanick, CEO, Uber

Targeting innovators to build the demand side

Technology Adoption Life Cycle

2,5%Innovators Early

Adopters13,5%

Early Majority34%

Late Majority34%

Laggards16%

03. BecomecontagiousOnce a strong user base has been constituted, leverage it and make partnerships to increase virality

37

After reaching critical mass, Uber’s network effects start catching on, bringing in new users. But Uber even dopes these network effects, incentivizing word of mouth through referrals, accelerating its own growth. No need for TV spots, Uber lets users do the marketing.

95% of all riders heard about Uber from other riders*

Rider-to-rider referral

*As of 2012

Driver-to-driver referral

Source: Uber, therideshareguy.com

In some cities, Uber hires Brand Ambassadors, in charge of recruiting new drivers. Some settle kiosks in gas stations and attract drivers with free gas and sign-up bonuses.

Ambassadors are paid minimum wage and make $250 for every driver they sign up.

Build an ambassadors network

User evangelism better than TV

38

NUMBER OF RIDES TAKEN

2 3 41 5 6 7 8 9

For Uber, a customer is a long term asset carrying a lifetime value. Uber’s profits will come in the long term as they are driven by Uber’s strong retention rate. In the US, Uber is already generating profits since 2015 after supporting heavy customer acquisition costs for years through referrals. CAC has to be inferior to LTV to be sustainable.

- € 16.6- € 13.2

- € 9.8

- € 6.4

- € 3

Referral fees€10x2 = €20Average profit per fare20% (commissions) x €17 (average fare) = €3.4Number of fares before profitability20 / 3.4 > 5

Example of a customer P&L

If the customer is acquired through referral, Uber loses 16,6€ on the first ride because of referral fees

CU

MU

LATE

D P

ROFI

T FO

R U

BER

(mod

ulo

fixed

cos

ts)

Source: FABERNOVEL calculations

Contagion: a long-term investment

39

Uber has been successfully using low cost guerilla marketing campaigns and taking advantage of social media to spread and prove its concept: “anything in 5 minutes”. Give your customers a story to tell and create virality.

Uber Ice Cream

Uber launched multiple Uber Ice Cream campaigns: “An ice cream at a tap of a button, delivered to your door, for free”. On the 24th of July 2014, it launched it in 252 cities, across 57 countries, and invited users to share with an astounding success. A stunt repeated with Uber Puppies, Uber Mariachi, Uber Chopper, and many others.

92% Increase in discussion volume on social media

70M Users came across Uber’s campaign

11% Increase in organic signups in Poland

Source: Brand24.com

Sell an idea, not a product

40

Even if it adapts its offers to local demand, Uber offers the same interface and experience everywhere, allowing riders to use the service, even when abroad. Contagion doesn’t recognize borders ! One single app and brand to have a transportation experience whatever the language, the currency, the nationality of either the driver or the customer.

NEW YORK CITY SHANGHAI MUMBAI PARIS LIMA

As a result 20% of Uber riders have taken a ride in another city.Source: Uber

UX consistency: the secret to the first universal taxi service

41

Uber can reach 200 million more users through its partners’ apps.

Uber’s future customers are probably someone’s current customers. In order to acquire users from other businesses' customer bases, Uber has opened a set of APIs to integrate its service into third parties’ apps and gain visibility.

Outsourcing marketing efforts

“Consider emailing your user base to ensure they are aware of the Uber integration within your app”

The Partner Program is aimed at big companies that integrated Uber in their own app. It’s a free added service for their customers and it offers exposure to Uber.

Be where users are

Suggestion to its API users

Uber’s APIs allow developers to incorporate Uber into their applications (close to 10,000 at the end of 2015).Developers can make up to 5000$ in referral fees. (5$ per signed-up user)

Leverage others’ networks to grow

04. Mutate fast

Never stop innovating and pivoting to enlarge your market and annihilate competition.

43

In less than 6 years, Uber’s mission statement has changed twice, highlighting the major mutations of Uber’s model and vision.

Uber’s evolving vision: a perpetual mutation

UberBLACKUberSUV

UberX UberEATSUberRUSH

UberPOOLUberCOMMUTE

Uber trip experiencesUber Offers

Everyone can become an Uberdriver

Open to goods delivery: Uber is a transportation network

Shared rides: more people into fewer cars

Monetize captive user attentionAim for the perpetual ride

Increase offerDecrease priceIncrease demand

Minimize drivers’ idle timeNew revenue streams

Decrease in priceIncrease demandIncrease offer

New revenue streamsIn progress…

UberX drivers are 6x more numerous than UberBLACKdrivers

UberEATS is available in 16 cities

In San Francisco UberPOOLrepresents 50% of total rides

MISSION STATEMENT

NEW UBER SERVICES

SHIFTS IN THE MODEL

KEY METRICS

EVERYONE’S PRIVATE DRIVER TRANSPORTATION AS RELIABLE AS RUNNING WATER

MOVING BITS AND ATOMS

2010 2012 2014 2016

CORE GOAL

44

UberCab, founded in 2009 started operating its first black cars in 2010 in San Francisco.

• Professional drivers• Black sedans only

• No booking fees• Order at the tap of a button

• More expensive than a taxi• Premium service and experience

Uber challenged the taxi and black car market by providing a simple service: a ride a the tap of button. A perfect user experience was the core of Uber’s value proposition.UberCab became Uber in 2011 and launched UberBLACK and UberSUV with an identical value proposition. Later it launched UberVAN for larger groups of passengers.

Starting the network: a black car service

45

In 2012, Uber launched UberX (UberPOPin Europe), a taxi-ridesharing hybrid registering as a “Transportation Network Company”, taking the best of both worlds:

• Non-professional drivers driving their own car when they want to (they pay for gas themselves)

• A new source of income for anyone that is willing to drive

• Lower prices for riders • Same experience as UberBLACK

By tapping into privately owned excess capacities, Uber has been able to exponentially grow its pool of drivers and decrease price .Before launching UberX, the number of Uber drivers had a steady but slow growth.

MAKING THE SUPPLY EXPLODENumber of Uber drivers (partners) in the US

Sources: Uber, Hall & Krueger

Tuning the network– letting more drivers in

There are 6 times more UberX drivers than UberBLACK drivers in the US.

46

UberPOOL enables you to share a ride and split the cost with another user who is requesting a ride along a similar route at the same time. Users can pay up to 50% less. Drivers gets 2 or 3 rides for the cost/time of one, and Uber takes a higher 35% fee.

Sources: Uber, The Rideshare Guy, Forbes, CSmonitor

Optimizing further excess capacities. An increase in cars’ utilization and a decrease in price and driver’s idle time. Uber also launched UberCOMMUTE, a version of UberPOOL dedicated to commuting to work in its top 3 markets: US, China and India.

95% Of trips could be shared if riders were willing to wait an additional 5 minutes for other passengers.

50% Of Uber rides in San Francisco are Uber Pool rides. 30M Uber Pool rides every month in China.

1M Cars could be taken off from London’s roads according to Travis Kalanick thanks to UberPool.

Tuning the network– getting more people into fewer cars

47

In 2015, Uber launched Smart Routes and HOP. These services are designed for price-sensitive customers willing to sacrifice time: announcing Uber’s direct competition with public transportation.

Users request UberHOP rides and the app gives them directions to their pickup location. Users share ride to a predefined destination, and walk the last few blocks.

Uber smart routes is an extension of UberPOOL. It offers fare reductions to customers if they get picked up near a smart route. By providing incentives for customers to rally precise pickup points, Uber wants to maximize the number of people per car and therefore continue to lower prices.

UberHOP is a pilot in Seattle. Smart routes only exist in San Francisco so far.

Tuning the network– from premium to low-cost

12

3

1

2 3

Drop-off location

Pickup location

48

In 2014 and 2015, Uber launched UberEATS and UberRUSH, respectively a meal delivery service for restaurants, and a package delivery service for businesses.

UberEATS is embedded in the Uber app. While UberRUSH is accessible to businesses through a dedicated API.

Both services leverage Uber’s existing network of drivers and dispatch technology. A smart way to decrease drivers’ idle time and exploit excess capacity further. Uber leverages its direct access to users through its app to create new sources of revenues.

UberRUSH is live in SF, NYC and Chicago since 2014. UberEATS has launched in 15 North American cities, as well as London, Melbourne, Paris and Singapore.

“If we can get you a car in 5 minutes, we can get you anything in 5 minutes.” Travis Kalanick

CEO, Uber

Extending the network: from transportation to logistics

49

The math seems to add up

Megan Quinn (an ex-KPCB partner) sold her car and decided to take an Uber anytime she needed to move around, and realized the cost of moving in Uber was below the cost of owning a car.

Cost of owning a car for a year: $10.281 (Parking + Gas + Insurance + Maintenance + Tolls / parking tickets + amortized cost of car )

Cost of riding with Uber for a year: $4655“So the magic there is, you basically

bring the cost below the cost of ownership for everybody, and then

car ownership goes away.”Travis KalanickCEO Uber

Uber’s ambition is to become a substitute to car ownership. In some cities Uber cut prices 5 to 6 times in a two-year period to make its service more appealing to customers and turn them away from car ownership. In large cities, the cost of owning a car can reach $15.000 per year. The average US household owns 2.1 cars, with 20% owning 3 or more. Uber’s proposition might find its public!

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

UberBlack Taxi UberX UberPool Subway

Price from 1162 Pacific St. to 55 Washington St. NYC

Sources: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Mega Quinn, FABERNOVEL analysis. Average number of cars per household as of 2013.

With one goal in mind: moving away from car ownership

50

As Aaron Levie (CEO of Box) puts it, “sizing the market for a disruptor based on an incumbent's market is like sizing the car industry off how many horses there were in 1910.”

Uber is no longer a cab company, it’s a transportation network. It wants to move everything and everyone from point A to point B, enlarging its market day after day, and setting a vision for a world where Uber would replace car ownership. So forget about the taxi market - Uber’s market is way bigger than it seems!

US market size in $Bn

Sources: IBISWorld, The Wall Street Journal

From network to industry leader

51

With its latest mission statement (“moving bits and atoms”), Uber clearly states its ambition to become more than a transportation giant: a real infrastructure and a platform where other service providers can contribute to value creation. Uber is taking advantage of the direct contact and captive attention it has with passengers during their Uber rides. Indeed, Uber provided the equivalent of 40,000 years of rides since 2010.

Media distribution channel Customer acquisition channel

Uber Trip Experiences allows users to connect to their favorite apps during their Uber trip. Uber gives brands an opportunity to use Uber riders’ captive attention to push adapted content based on the time of the day and trip duration. A smart way to improve riders’ experience.

Uber Offers enables brand to push promotions to passengers based on their geolocation data. For example, Starbucks may pay for your ride to their shop. Offers are targeted and become a new way for local businesses to reach new customers. For Uber, it’s a way new way of providing cheaper/free rides to its riders.

What’s next ? Increasing average revenue per car

52

The ideal transportation network

“We can imagine a perpetual trip – the driver picks up one customer, then picks up another, then drops one of them off, then picks up another – the trip just keeps going, and the driver always has a customer in the car”

Becoming a reality?

Travis Kalanick, CEO, Uber

What’s next ? The perpetual ride: 24/7, 100% of capacity used

Imagine cars that never stop, a perfectly optimized transportation network, where resources (drivers, cars) are used at 100% capacity. To fulfil this dream, Uber will have to reach a massive scale, to ensure high liquidity at the local level with maximum capillarity.

Uber is doubling down on UberPOOL in China and the US with incentives for drivers. In San Francisco, Uber has reached a record of 8 non-stop UberPOOL rides.

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Uber plans to replace its fleet of drivers by a fleet of driverless cars as soon as the technology is ready, thus making the rides cheaper without having to care about drivers’ revenue expectations and moving closer to the perpetual ride dream:

• Opened a research center in Pittsburg in 2015, to build its own autonomous cars

• Allegedly pre-ordered 100,000 Mercedes for when they get self-driving technology.

• Recruited top researchers and executives from the car industry and Google’s ex-VP of Engineering

• Holds a strong advantage in the race to the autonomous car: data about how, where and when people want to be driven.

“The reason Uber could be expensive is you’re paying for the other dude in the car. When there is no other dude in the car, the cost of taking an Uber anywhere is cheaper.”

Travis KalanickCEO, Uber

Sources: Uber, Manager Magazin

What’s next ? The autonomous car

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1. Control the infrastructure

Infected professional cars With Uber Black

2. Widen the infrastructure

Infected all available carsWith UberX & Pool

From virus to host: a disruptive strategy

Uber is following a 3-step plan to become the transportation infrastructure of our cities. Becoming more and more infectious, the virus is slowly becoming the host.

3. Become the infrastructure

Will be built in its own carsWith autonomous vehicles

05. Defend

Protect your market against safeguards and competitors or you’ll be replaced.

Regulation

Competitors

Carmakers Tech giants

Drivers

All over the world, governments are threatening Uber’s model. How long can the outlaw resist to the legal pressure?

Uber won’t be anything without its drivers. Will the transportation giant be able to keep them in its network?

Uber is not the only on-demand actor. It is challenged all around the world by growing actors well decided to stop its growth.

With the promise of “moving away from car ownership”, Uber hasn’t made carmakers happy. But they have room left to reinvent themselves and challenge Uber in the on-demand economy.

Tech giants are progressively investing huge amounts to conquer the transportation market. The war is just beginning…

Uber has grown to become a transportation giant in less than a decade, changing the rules of the game and challenging legacy actors. But beware of the backfire. On its way up, Uber has created frustration, fear and envy from multiple stakeholders ready to fight for their premises.

Uber threatened from all sides

We should've realized sooner that we are running a political campaign and the candidate is UberTravis KalanickCEO, UBER

Uber vs governments: also a political fight

“

With the creation of the “Transportation Network Company” status, Uber has initially leveraged regulation to create unfair competitive advantages against taxi networks for which medallions could reach up to $1M in cities like NYC. But now, regulation threatens Uber and could be its worst nightmare. Depending on the city it is dealing with, Uber reacts in multiple fashions.

Retreat

PartnerAdapt Pay

Uber adapts to comply with the law: in Moscow Uber just accepts professional drivers and shares data.

Uber partners with governments to operate: in Hyderabad it has promised to train 2,000 drivers and invest $50M to build headquarters.

Some municipalities decided to ban some of Uber’s services. In this case, Uber obeys like in Paris where it ceased its UberX activity (aka.UberPop). In some cities like Austin, Uber is not forbidden but retreats because policies prevent liquidity.

Some municipalities like Newark don’t hesitate to make Uber pay to operate: $3M upfront and $10M across 10 years to access the airport.

Sources: Uber, Fortune, CBS, Le Monde, Wired

Lobby

Globally, Uber is spending millions of dollars into lobbying. It hires top profiles in its public affairs department, like Neelie Kroes, an ex EU-commissioner for Competition, or David Plouffe, the ex director of Obama’s campaign.

Under pressure from governments

DefendA Californian judge requalified a driver as an employee. A similar judgement is awaited in France. A serious threat to Uber’seconomic model. It appealed the decision. In the US, Uber paid $100M to settle a similar class action with drivers.

• Determine a distinctive ideology: ultra-liberal (gig economy), libertarian, objectivist (T. Kalanick is a big Ayn Rand fan)

• Declare it to the world: Marketing campaign ”Uber-entrepreneur”

• Demarcate from outsiders through symbols: black sedans only

• Demonize the other: repeated attacks on taxi so called “monopolies” and states’ interventions

Uber has created a divide in the public opinion in many cities, where the support and the opposition to ridesharing services has become intense. In The Culting of Brands, Douglas Atkin, VP Community at Airbnb explains how brands can leverage cults’ techniques to turn customers into true believers and it seems Uber has learned the lesson well. The transportation genius has always been able to count on its users to promote and defend its service against all attacks.

Uber has launched many petitions, inviting

4 steps to turn customers into believers:

Launching many petitions, to seek support from users against governments

Counting on tech gurus’ support

Uber’s response: an ideology war

“ if you refuse to meet and discuss with us […] protests and strikes are only going to intensify nationally and globally as we continue to coordinate with driver groups around the globe.

Uber Drivers NetworkOpen Letter To Uber, Travis, Josh Mohrer, Uber’s investors and employees

Drivers’ mutiny

Uber forgot it’s a networkof drivers and not anetwork of cars yet

Low prices and pickup times depend on a high supply of drivers: steal its drivers away and Uber’s market power collapses. Under regulatory pressure from the outside, Uber is now challenged from the inside, by its own partner drivers. Keeping its drivers inside the network till it gets to the autonomous car seems like Uber’s biggest challenge.

By trying to please riders withlower prices, Uber has enraged itsdrivers. All around the world, theyhave protested against price cuts.They are also unionizing inside“The Uber Drivers Network” tospeak of a common voice againstUber.

In a two-sided market, it’s arisky move to sacrifice one sideto please the other.

Uber can be challenged by anyone with a large amount of funding and a pro-driver strategy

Emerging actors like Gett and Juno are taking on Uber by developing driver-friendly value propositions. Gett offers fare guarantees to drivers. Juno only takes a 10% commission on rides and reserves 50% of its founding shares to drivers. Startups like Arcade City leverage the blockchain to organize a network of driver: commissions reach 0%.

In a market with supply-side network effects, if competitors attract your supply, the demand will follow.

Sources: Uber Drivers Network, FastCompany, The Verge

Uber’s Achilles' heel ? Its drivers !

“

62

“William Clay Ford Jr

Executive chairman of Ford Motors Company

If you live in a city, you don’t

need to own a car

Uber made on-demand cars mainstream and changed the face of transportation forever. Pure players, carmakers and tech giants are now in the race to conquer this market, questioning fundamentals of their own models.

A never-ending competitive cycle

In 7 years Uber has conquered the world. But will it be able to keep its position of power for ever? Legacy actors and pure players are challenging its supremacy using 4 different strategies.

Connectto existing

networks

Createyour ownnetworks

4 strategies to compete with Uber

Sometimes just leveraging a disruptive virus’ assets might bring more value than fighting it. Transportation has become an increasingly crowded market with disruptors adding a new layer to the existing infrastructures. By plugging to Uber, transportation networks can extend their reach, gain in flexibility, and solve ”the last mile problem“ by serving underserved areas. In Paris, around 40% of Uber trips happen before or after a public transportation trip. Integrating with mass transit actors is crucial to Uber’s survival.

Caltrain & Uber partnership in San Francisco extendsthe reach of Caltrain network by providingUberPOOL rides to and from South Bay station. Forspecial events, Uber can bring flexibility to the publictransit system.

Bringing flexibility to existing networks

Plugging in to improve customers’ experience

United airlines integrated the Uber option into itsown app, bringing an additional service to its owncustomers. By just plugging in to Uber, United isdifferentiating itself from other airlines.

PLUG IN

Linking up with the virus

65

Competing head-on with an installed virus is usually a very difficult challenge. Because of itsmulti-local inherent structure, Uber has to fight hard against local actors in every market it tries toconquer and usually operates in the context of a duopoly, both actors spending billion of dollarsonly to survive. A virtually infinite fight.

Sources: The Wall Street Journal, La Tribune. Valuation figures as of June 2016.

LYFTUnited StatesLaunch: 2012Valuation: $5.5bn

EASY TAXIBrazilLaunch: 2012

CHAUFFEUR-PRIVEFranceLaunch: 2012Valuation: €25M

GRABMalaysiaLaunch: 2012Valuation: $1.6bn

OLAIndiaLaunch: 2011Valuation: $5bn

DIDIChinaLaunch: 2012Valuation: $25bn

COMPETE HEAD-ON

Uber facing multi-local competition

66

To beat a disruptive virus infecting your industry, differentiation could be your best ally.Uber’s most dangerous competitors might win the transportation war by leveraging differentiating value propositions. Pure players of course are in the race, but also legacy actors: GM created Maven and Ford created Ford Smart Mobility as independent entities to focus on mobility services like hourly car rental.

Model Taxi-like Ride-share Hourly Car-rental Car-shareValue proposition

“A car and a driver at the tap of a button”

“I have room left in my car. Want to join?”

“Get access to our cars anywhere in the city”

”Rent a car from other users”

Who does it? UberDidi, Lyft, Ola

Waze Rider by Google,Blablacar

Maven by GM,ReachNow by BMW, Zipcar, Autolib

TuroDrivy

Distance Short Medium-long Short-Medium Medium-long

Sets destination Rider Driver Rider Rider

Sets price Company Car owner Company Car owner

Owns the car Driver (excess capacity)

Driver (excess capacity)

Company (assets) Other user (excess capacity)

Business model Commission Commission Subscription Commission

DIFFERENTIATE

Various on-demand transportation models

67

Partnering with a disruptive virus might be the best strategy to reinvent yourself. Legacyactors are joining forces with Uber, hoping to take the leadership in this revolution of thetransportation industry. A smart move that could bring them the knowledge and the assets they’remissing to enter the network economy.

Toyota and Uber entered into a strategic partnership to “explore the future of ridesharing” with the first brick being car-leasing programs for drivers. Toyota also invested close to $100M in Uber.

The Indian automotive giant Tata invested close to $100M in Uber. That’s the first investment of Tata outside India. A good support for Uber looking to expand in this gigantic country

Hertz and Uber entered into a partnership to provide rental cars to Uber drivers. A smart way for Hertz to revive its business.

Fiat Chrysler and Uber are said to be discussing a strategic partnership to develop autonomous cars together.

Back in 2013, Google’s investment arm, Google Capital invested $258M into Uber. A way to have an insider into the on-demand transportation market.

After selling its mapping service to the transportation startup, Microsoft invested $100M in Uber.

Making strategic partnerships Investing in Uber’s future

PARTNER

Share assets and knowledge with the virus

68

Competing frontally against a disruptive virus is nearly impossible, unless your form alliances.By sharing assets and knowledge, competitors highly increase their chances of fighting Uber, thetransportation virus.

Sources: Lyft, TechCrunch

If Uber falls in one of its opponent’s markets, it could trigger its failures in the other markets. If success can spread like a virus, failure could too.

Didi (China)i, Lyft (USA), Grab(Malaysia) and Ola (India) partnered :• Invested in each other’s companies• Share technology & business resources• Let users book a ride from the local player with their home-

country app

! GM invested $500M in Lyft to provide car rentals services for drivers and build together a network of autonomous cars. In the same vein, Apple invested $1Bn in Didi, Uber’s Chinese competitors, and Chrysler is building mini vans to help Google extend its test of autonomous cars.

By bringing their fighting power and hardware knowledge to Uber’s direct competitors, legacy actors are reshuffling the mobility cards.

Competitors a meta-platform

Competitors creating mobility alliances

!!

PARTNER

Share assets and knowledge to fight the virus

The autonomous car revolution is coming faster than we expected and will reshuffle the cards in the on-demand transportation sector. This revolution looks a lot like the previous one: the smartphone revolution.

Apple and Google are the big winners of the smartphone revolution having wiped out former phone giants like Blackberry or Nokia. They both have had a very unique strategy to reach this position of power.

What would Uber become if it applied the same recipe to the transportation industry ?

like any other. […]

From phones to autonomous cars: an eternal repetition

Randall StephensonCEO, AT&T

“ The car will just be a big smartphone on wheels in the future

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Asset builders

Technology creators

Platform orchestrators

Service providers

In the networked world, 4 types of companies emerge in every market, following the model set out by the smartphone revolution. The same will happen in the autonomous car market, with actors positioning themselves in each category. Some try to occupy more than one category.

4 types of companies for one market

These companies build, develop, and lease physical assets to make, market, distribute, and sell physical things. They will build the autonomous cars.

These companies hire employees who provide services to customers or produce billable hours for which they charge. They will provide insurance, repair cars, etc…

These companies develop and sell intellectual property such as software, analytics, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology. They will build the software that drives the autonomous cars.

These companies create a network of peers in which the participants interact and share in the value creation. They will orchestrate autonomous cars to serve riders.

71

Uber in Apple’s footsteps?

Apple’s strategy has been one of vertical integration: being a technology creator, an asset builder and a network orchestrator at the same time.

Developed iOS

Built iPhones with iOS built-in

Operated the AppStore

If Uber follows Apple’s strategy, it willdevelop autonomous’ carsOperating System, will build its owncars and orchestrate its ownnetwork of cars.

Probably a risky move, as it willcompete directly with carmakers,and with Apple itself.

DEVICE

RIDER

AUTONOMOUS CAR

72

Uber in Google’s footsteps?

Google’s strategy has been an OpenSoftware strategy. It created thetechnology, orchestrated the networkbut didn’t built the assets.

Developed Androïd and opened it to phone makers

Smartphones built by phone makers (Samsung, HTC, etc…) with Androïd as an OS

Operated the Play Store

If Uber follows Google’s strategy, it willdevelop autonomous’ cars OperatingSystem and open it. Carmakers willbuild the cars with UberOS inside. Uberwill naturally orchestrate the cars forcarmakers, dispatch them to riders, andtake a cut on the transactions.

Probably the best strategy if it candevelop the OS faster than Google andother competitors.

DEVICE

RIDER

AUTONOMOUS CAR

Marc AndreessenBreaking Smart Season 1

Software is eating the world“

One axiom

74

Accomodation Retail Media

Energy Professional services

Entertainment Travel Banking

Telecom

Software is eating industries one after the other, with young startups reinventing business modelsand value propositions to conquer the world at once. If your industry is safe, it probably won’t be forlong.

One certainty: your industry will be eaten too

75

Facebook’s Little Red Book

If we don’t create the thing that kills [us], someone else will “

One strategy: think like a virus

1.SYNTHESIZE ITIdentify a poorly-served market and develop

a platform to serve it 10 times better.

3.BECOME CONTAGIOUSLeverage your user base and make

partnerships to increase virality.

4.MUTATE FASTNever stop innovating and pivoting to

enlarge your market and annihilate competition.

5.DEFENDProtect your market against safeguards

and competitors or you’ll be replaced.

2. SEED GERMSFind the best environment to incubate

under favorable circumstances. Do things that don’t scale to kick-start your network.

Forget about CAPEX. Networks are the new asset.

Forget about marketing, users are the new media

Forget about first mover advantage, it’s all about the first setller

Forget about cash cows. Perpetual innovation is the only path to success.

Forget about direct competition. Differentiate or partner up to remain in the race.

5 rules to act like a virus

77

Follow our Medium page Inside GAFAnomics

Get fresh news on GAFAnomics

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Facebook, The Perfect Startup (2012)6 365k views on Slideshare

Amazon, The Hidden Empire (2011)918k views on Slideshare

•••

Three digital engines to reshape and dominate retail

mazon.com THE HIDDEN EMPIRE

Linkedin, The serious Network (2013)197k views on Slideshare

And more.

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Paris, September 2010

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GAFAnomics®, New Economy New rules (2014) – 312k views on Slideshare

GAFAnomics®, 4 Superpowers…(2015) – 316k views on Slideshare

See also…

79

We are

A new world needs new solutions

Who we are

We are a “digital native” organization of a new type, nourished by a unique culture and incomparable talents. Wegather wide and cutting-edgecapabilities –in strategy, software, design and data marketing –boosting our clients’ competitiveness.

Our offices

From our offices in San Francisco, Paris, Toulouse and Lisbon, we work with clients everywhere in the world to help them define and develop new opportunities.

What we do

We transform feared disruptions intobusiness opportunities. We craftimpactful user experiences thatbenefit our clients and theircustomers. We build agile prototypes to test and develop strong strategicassets. And we play a prominent rolewith a sustainable impact, in the best ecosystems. At startup speed.

@FABERNOVEL facebook.com/FABERNOVEL FABERNOVEL.com

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A full stack and digital native company to identify levers for competitiveness

Stéphane DISTINGUINFounder & CEO FABERNOVELstephane.distinguin@fabernovel.com

Cyril VARTExecutive VP FABERNOVELcyril.vart@fabernovel.com

Leila TURNERCEO FABERNOVEL INNOVATEleila.turner@fabernovel.com

Dominique PIOTETCEO FABERNOVEL US & PARISOMAdominique.piotet@fabernovel.com

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Kevin GENTIL-CANTINCo-founder & CEO FABERNOVEL DATA & MEDIAkevin@fabernovel.com

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Antonin TORIKIANCEO FABERNOVEL InstituteAntonin.torikian@fabernovel.com

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Amaury BOTRELArt Director

DESIGN-

Kevin ECHRAGHIProject Analyst

Tom MorisseAnalyst

RESEARCH-

SPECIAL THANKS-

Robin Chase (Peers Inc) | Frederic Mazella (BlaBlaCar) | Jean-Christophe Liaubet (Exane) |

Marie Ekeland (Elaia Partners, daphni) | Paul Foucault (Ex-FABERNOVEL) | The whole FABERNOVEL team

Benoit TALABOTPartner & Creative Director

Joachim RenaudinJunior Project Analyst

Credits

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