UAE - JAFZA - Dubai Economic Outlook 2011
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Transcript of UAE - JAFZA - Dubai Economic Outlook 2011
Dubai Economic Outlook 2011
Macro Economic Projections
Item 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real GDP Growth
World 3.8% 3.1% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0%
MENA 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.8%
UAE 2.1% 3.5% 4.6% 5.0% 5.7%
Inflation
World Inflation 2.9% 2.7% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%
UAE 0.9% 2.5% 1.5% 1.6% 2.8%
World Trade
World Trade Growth 12.5% 6.9% 6.4% 6.5% 6.6%
Developed 11.0% 6.0% 4.3% 4.5% 4.6%
Developing Countries 14.5% 8.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.1%
UAE Trade (USD Billion)
Exports 198.3 222.1 231.8 248.6 269.3
Imports 159.0 171.8 182.1 198.4 216.7
Total Trade 357.3 393.9 413.9 447.0 486.0
2 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, UAE Country Report March 2011 / Global Outlook September 2010
Macro Economic Projections
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
World MENA UAE
3
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
World UAE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Imports Exports Total Trade
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FDI
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, UAE Country Report March 2011 / Global Outlook September 2010
Macro Economic Overview
UAE real GDP is expected to steadily increase during the next 5 years, surpassing the average world real GDP growth.
Trade volumes are also expected to increase for UAE during the forecast period (2010 – 2014), which is one of the key drivers of demand for industrial space.
The foreign direct investment is expected to increase on a steady pace.
4
Free Zones around the World
Singapore
Shenzen
Tianjing
Panama
South Africa
Incheon
Shannon
Jebel Ali
The best combination of these models suggests the
following are critical factors for their success:
Proximity to markets
Preferential market access (trade agreements)
Access to ports, infrastructure
Availability of human talent for target industries
Tax holidays
Fast track approvals for all administrative
procedures
Flexible labor regime with minimum cost and
delays in the “hiring and firing” process
It’s evident that comprehensive zone has become the preferred
model of free zone/ special economic zone especially in East
Asia
Provide all necessary amenities for supporting normal life
Contain dedicated industrial/ science zones and free trade
zones
Attract human talent due to excellent living conditions
Attract financial capital due to wide range of options for
business
Have a self sustaining government & economy with little
outside influence
Competitiveness of a Location
Push Drivers
Pull Drivers
Develop a new market
• Servicing an existing client
• Winning a new contract
Accessibility
Mobility
Market Size Access to Decision makers
Industry
Cost of doing
business
Regulations (100%
ownership)
Living standards &
life style
Operational Efficiency Institutional Capacity
Starting a business
Dealing with License
Employing Workers
Registering Property
Getting Credit
Protecting Investors
Paying Taxes
Enforcing Contracts
Closing a Business
Trading Across Borders
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
85
82
75
75
72
69
67
38
20
21
24
22
16
23
22
32
40
45
50
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38
48
44
50
26
31
24
27
32
26
30
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14
2
14
3
5
2
2
4
Dubai Government Excellence Program
Customer Satisfaction Surveys
Doing Business Survey
Governments Excellence Programs emphasis operational efficiencies.
Competitive Centers own program continues to drive operational improvement
through customer satisfaction surveys.
Overall Process: The ability to execute transactions faster is a key driver of
customer experience.
Physical Development: Products choices for investors drive effectiveness of CC
Performance in Context
209.1
490.6
959.3
1,138.4
1,179.6
610.5
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200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
World GDP UAE GDP Dubai Trade Jafza Trade Jafza Customers JZone Employees
8 World GDP= IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, Mar 2011. UAE GDP = IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, Mar 2011
Dubai Trade & Jafza trade = Statistics Department, Dubai World. Jafza Customers, zone employees = FreeComs, EZW .
Jafza Companies & Zone Employees
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20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
5,000
5,200
5,400
5,600
5,800
6,000
6,200
6,400
6,600
Ja
n-0
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Feb
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Ma
r-08
Ap
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Ma
y-0
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Ju
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Sep
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Oct-
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Feb
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Feb
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Customers Employees
9 Jafza Customers, zone employees FreeComs, EZW .
Steady growth of number of companies within Jafza.
Companies within the zone have reacted to economic crisis by reducing
resources. No of employees is leveling.
Industrial Market
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Tier 1:
Demand for high quality
developments.
BTS warehouses.
Tier 2:
Regular speculative
development.
Source: CBRE
Largest container port outside of Asia. Hub connecting East – West & North – South Trades. Common feeder network hub for GCC/Iran/Iraq/ISC/RSEA/EAF
Quad/Tandem Lift - the world's largest gantry cranes
enabling the port to cater to the new generation of mega-
ships
2009 Best Middle East Seaport for the 15th consecutive year (AFSCA)
Jebel Ali Port
Capacity
14.5 million TEU
Container Traffic
Over 11 million
TEU
Shipping Lines
Over 150
Services/Calls
Over 90 Weekly
Annual Vessel Calls
Over 12,000
Quayside Draft
14-17 m
USA (East) 21 days / 4 services
South America 25 days / 2 services
Northern Europe 18 days / 9 services
Mediterranean 13 days / 6 services
South Africa 12days / 4 services
East Africa 8 days / 2 services
West Africa 16days / 2 services
India 4 days / 31 services
South East Asia 7days / 11 services
Far East 20 days / 23 services
Dubai Sea Port Connectivity Jebel Ali Port – Connecting the World (Transit Times and Weekly Services)
12
Oceania 27days (Transshipment)
Intra Gulf 1 day / 25 services
Red Sea 12 days / 5 services
Dubai International Airport &
Cargo Village
8th busiest cargo airport and 13th busiest passenger airport
in the world in 2010
17% yoy growth in cargo volumes in 2010 – 15% yoy growth
in passengers in 2010
Cargo Village – Handles twenty freighters a day with a 90
minute turn-around for a fully laden 747
Cargo Capacity
2.5 million tons
pa
Passenger Traffic
+40 million in
2010
Airlines
130
Cargo Handled
2.2 million tons in
2010
Passenger Capacity
60 million pa
Destinations
Over 200 cities
Source : Emirates 24|7 March 2011
14
London (7.5 hrs) 26 weekly flights
New York (14 hrs) 14 weekly flights
Tokyo (10 hrs) 5 weekly flights
Seoul (8 hrs) 12weekly flights
Shanghai (8.5 hrs) 14 weekly flights
Mumbai (3 hrs) 35 weekly flights
Doha (1 hr) 35 weekly flights
Sao Paulo (15 hrs) 7 weekly flights
Sydney (14 hrs) 14 weekly flights
Moscow (5 hrs) 14 weekly flights
Cape Town (9.5 hrs) 7 weekly flights
Cairo (4 hrs) 10 weekly flights
Los Angeles (16.5 hrs) 7 weekly flights
Singapore (7.5 hrs) 14 weekly flights
Rome (6.5 hrs) 14 weekly flights
Addis Ababa (4 hrs) 7 weekly flights
Casablanca (9.5 hrs) 7 weekly flights
Dubai Air Port Connectivity Dubai International Airport – Emirates Network
15
DUBAI
500 Km
1,000 Km
1,500 Km
2,000 Km
Dubai Land Connectivity Dubai –GCC Road Network
Challenges
Challenges
Competition
• Copying Dubai model
Access to key markets
• Exclusion of Free zones from trade agreement
Cost of Doing business
• OPEX related.
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Our Strength
17
Physical
Infrastructure
Institutional
Capacity
Industry
Momentum
18