Two Nations Indivisible_ Mexico, The United States, And the Road Ahead - Shannon O'Neil

8/21/2019 Two Nations Indivisible_ Mexico, The United States, And the Road Ahead - Shannon O'Neil

1/215

UNCORRECTED ADVANCE READING COPYNOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION

This advance reader’s copy has been distributed by Oxford University Press for promotional and

advance review purposes only.

No copying, sale, or further distribution or transmission of this digital galley, in whole or part, is allowed,

except to others on your staff and/or assigned reviewers for preview purposes only.

This preview copy will NOT expire. However, we do ask that you use a finished copy of the book for

fact-checking purposes. Please contact Oxford University Press for more information about this

book/author or to request a finished book.

212.726.6033 or [email protected]


2/215

Two Nations Indivisible

FM indd iFM.indd i 10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM


3/215FM indd iiFM.indd ii 10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM


4/215

Two Nations Indivisible

Mexico, the United States ,and the Road Ahead

S H A N N ON K . O ’ N E I L

1

FM indd iiiFM.indd iii 10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM


5/215

3Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.

It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,and education by publishing worldwide.

Oxford New York

Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi

Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi

New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto

With offi ces in

Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece

Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore

South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam

Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press

in the UK and certain other countries.

Published in the United States of America by

Oxford University Press

198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016

© Oxford University Press 2013

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in

a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior

permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law,

by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization.

Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights

Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above.

You must not circulate this work in any other form

and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer.

[Insert CIP Here]

978–01–9–989833-6

1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2

Printed in the United States of America

on acid-free paper

FM indd ivFM.indd iv 10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM


6/215

v

C O N T E N T S

Map vi i

Acknowledgments ix Preface: Te “Real” Mexico xi

1. Mexico a he Crossroad 1

2. Reenvisioning U.S.-Mexico Diplomaic Relaions 10

3. Immigraion’s Binding ies 27

4. Mexico’s Lonely Sruggle or Democracy 525. Cross-Border Dreams: Mexico’s Growing Middle Class 79

6. Mexico’s Rising Insecuriy: A Real Illness wih he WrongPrescripion 108

7. Deciding our Muual Fuure 136

Epilogue: Te Reurn o he PRI 148

Notes 155

Bibliography 179

Index 199

FM indd vFM.indd v 10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM


7/215FM indd viFM.indd vi 10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM


8/215

vi i

C A L I F O R N I A

A R I Z O N A

T E X A S

O K L A H O M A

A R K A N S A S

L O U I S I A N A M

I S S I S S I P P I A

L A B A M A

F L O R I D A

N E W M

E X I C O

N U E V O

L E Ó N T

A M A U L I P A S

D U R A N G O

Z A C A T E C A S

S A N L U I S

P O T O S Í

N A Y A R I T

J A

L I S C O

G U A N A J U A T O

H I D A L G O

C O L I

M A

M I C H O A C Á N

P U E B L A

G U E R R E R O

O A X A C A

V E R

A C R U Z

T A B A S C O

C H I A P A S

C A M P E C H E

Y U C A T Á N

Q U I N T A N A

R O O

S O N O R A

C H I H U A H U A

C O A H U I L A

S I N A L O A

M É X I C O

B A J A C

A L I F O

R N I A

N O R T E B

A J A

C A L I

F O R N

I A S U

R

M e x i c a l i

L o s A

n g e l e s

S

a n D i e g o

E l P a

s o

T u c s o n

N o g a l e s

N o g a l e s

P h o e n i x

A l b u q u e r q u e

C i u d a d

J u á r e z

H o u s t o n

R e y n o s a

A u s t i n

S a n A n t o n i o

B r o w n s v i l l e

M a t a m o r o s

M c A l l e n

N u e v o

L a r e d o

D e l R i o

C i u d a d

A c u ñ a

T i j u a n a

H e r m o s i l l o

C h i h u a h u a D u

r a n g o

S a l t i l l o

M o n t e r r e y

C i u d a d

V i c t o r i a

S a n L u i s P o t o s í

Z a c a t e c a s

A g u a s c a l i e n t e s

T e p i c

G u a d a l a j a r a

O a x a c a

J a l a p a

C h i l p a n c i n g o

T l a x c a l a

M e x i c o C i t y

T o l u c a

P a c h u c a

M o r e l i a

Q u e r é t a r o

G u a n a j u a t o

C o l i m a

C h e t u m a l

M é r i d a

C a m p e c h e

T u x t l a

G u t i é r r e z

V i l l a h e r m o s a

P u e b l a

C u e r n a v a c a

L a r e d o

L a P a z

C u l i a c á n

I n t e r n a t i o n a l b o u n d a r y

S t a t e b o u n d a r y

N a t i o n a l c a p i t a l

S t a t e c a p i t a l

0 0

1 5 0

3 0 0 K i l o m e t e r s

3 0 0 M i l e s

1 5 0

M e x i c o a n d t h e

U S - M e x i c a n b o r d e r

FM indd viiFM.indd vii 10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM10/24/2012 6:20:03 PM


9/215FM indd viiiFM.indd viii 10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM


10/215

ix

A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S

Tis book has been a long ime in he making, drawing rom my days in inves-men banking, in academia, and now in he policy world a he Council onForeign Relaions. In each place, so many people have shared wih me heirime and insighs, educaing me, a imes arguing wih me, bu all he whileimproving my undersanding o Mexico and U.S.-Mexico relaions. Toughoo numerous o name, I grealy appreciae heir generosiy, as i has inormedhe analysis o his book.

o Bradley irpak, Caroline Whiehorn (Buler), and Alex Hayek, I will

always remember wih grea ondness my rs sin living in Mexico, and hose wih whom I rs explored is ciies and counrysides. Reurning several yearslaer as a researcher a he IAM, A lejandro Poiré, Gabe Aguilera, Eric Magar,Federico Esévez, Jorge Buendía, Memo Rosas, and Isaac Kaz made my ime

boh ruiul and un. I learned perhaps as much during our lunches as I didhrough my archival work and inerviews. During his ime I also me Claudio

X. González, and have had he pleasure o alking abou Mexico and U.S.-Mexico relaions wih him or now over a decade.

A Harvard, Seven Levisky, Paul Pierson, and especial ly Jorge Domínguez

helped me hone my inellecual, analyical, and eaching skills, making mea much beter scholar, as did my graduae suden colleagues Hillel Soier,Magda Hinojosa, Mark Copelovich, Casey Klosad, Fiona Barker, and AnnieSilz. Tey also suppored me in making he jump rom academia o policy.Now a he Council on Foreign Relaions, I have been lucky enough o work orRichard Haass, who has been unailingly supporive o my work over he lasve years, and he ac ha Mexico does mater or he Unied Saes. As heado CFR Sudies deparmen, Jim Lindsay has boh pushed me and helped mecarve ou he ime o nish he manuscrip. Te Consejo Mexicano de Hombres

de Negocio , inker Foundaion, and Ford Foundaion have all suppored my work a CFR, or which I am ruly grae ul.

FM indd ixFM.indd ix 10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM


11/215

A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s x

Tis book wouldn’ have come ino being wihou David Miller and Lisa Adam’s paien guidance hrough numerous book proposal drafs and hen hemanuscrip isel. I wouldn’ be as well researched wihou he grea effors

and abiliies o Sebasian Chaskel, Dora Beserczey, Dave Herrero, Charlie Warren, Naalie Kiroeff, and especially Sephanie Leuer, who crossed henish line wih me. I look orward o waching each o heir careers develop,and hope hey hire me one day.

I am humbled by he incredible kindnessand incisivenesso hemany ha offered heir ime, reading a par or whole o he manuscrip. JorgeDomínguez, Seven Levisky, Noel Maurer, Susan Gauss, and David Ayónread signican pars, and Andrew Selee, Hillel Soier, Magda Hinojosa, Gabe

Aguilera, Ken Greene, Francisco González, Enrique Hidalgo, James aylor,

Alredo Corchado, Carlos Pascual, Jamie rowbridge, Dedee O’Neil, andmy CFR colleagues Julia Sweig, ed Alden, Liz Economy, Jim Lindsay, andRichard Haass read i in is enirey. wo anonymous readers also provideduseul eedback. Incorporaing as many o he suggesions as I could, hey havedeniively made his book much beter.

As I made he ransiion rom wriing o ediing and markeing, I beneedgrealy rom he insighs o David McBride and he enhusiasm o he OxordUniversiy Press eam. I received exensive suppor wihin CFR as well, romrish Dorff and Lia Noron in publicaions, Lisa Shields and Nidhi Sinha

in communicaions, Leigh Gus and Michelle Baue in our library, NancyBodurha and Sacey LaFollete in meeings, and Irina Faskianos and her eamin naional oureach.

Everyone says wriing a book is a lonely process, bu looking back I willremember bes he riendships ha ormed and blossomed hroughou heprocess. My early morning chas wih Liz Economy boh ocused and dis-raced me when needed, as did hose wih oher Fellows Michael Levy,

Adam Segal, Micah Zenko, Isobel Coleman, Laurie Garret, Benn Seil, and Jagdish Bhagwai. I’ve grealy beneed rom heir smars and been honored

by heir riendship over he las ve years. Andrew Selee, Eric Olson, DavidShirk, Chris Sabaini, Iván Rebolledo, Juan Pardinas, Alejandro Hope, AnaPaula Ordorica, Raael Fernández de Casro, Carlos Pascual, Emilio CarrilloGamboa, Alredo Corchado, and James aylor helped pu i all in perspecive,as did Sarah Drummond, Jim Neider, and Melissa Wolff. I grealy appreciaedhe encouragemen o he O’Neil and rowbridge amilies. I also couldn’ have

writen his wihou Silvia Pérez de Marinez, as knowing ha my daughers were in her loving hands made i much easier o head off each day.

Troughou i all, I relied on he unwavering suppor and love o my hus-

band, Jamie rowbridge, and he paience o my girls, Lil lias and Bearice. I amhappy o be home again wih hem in he mornings.

FM indd xFM.indd x 10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM


12/215

xi

P R E F A C E : T H E “ R E A L” M E X I C O

I arrived a Benio Juarez airpor in Mexico Ciy around our o’clock in heafernoon on a ull direc igh rom New York’s John F. Kennedy airpor.

Wih wo large suicases I pushed my way hrough he Mexican amilies wai-ing or heir sons and daughers, and pas numerous porers waning o assishe “guera” wih her bags. Fory-ve minues laer, I me wo srangersmynew Mexican roommaes. Te hree-room railroad aparmen in Anzures,adjacen o he onier Polanco, was oo small or he hree o us, and, as I dis-covered over ime, we had litle in common. Bu a ha momen I was happy

no o be acing my rs days in one o he world’s larges ciies alone.I came o begin a job as an equiy analys a a bouique invesmen bank.

I was an unconvenional hire, somehow convincing my soon-o-be boss haa good liberal ars educaion, passable Spanish, and a sin a a human righsorganizaion in New York Ciy would ranslae well ino analyzing reail, ood,and beverage companies on Mexico’s expanding sock marke.

Te ac ha Mexico was booming helped. In March 1994 NAFA was hreemonhs underway, and a pervasive opimism lled Mexico Ciy’s axis, srees,and neighborhoods. Sure, here was alk abou he Zapaisa uprising, bu i

was mosly gossip abou is myserious green-eyed leader “SubcomandaneMarcos” and he wave o Hollywood celebriies heading o mee him in heChiapas jungle. Te povery and pain o souhern Mexico seemed oher-

worldly in he srees o Polanco, Mexico Ciy’s nancial hub. Our raders worked he phones all morning, selling hundreds o millions o dollars o cetes and tesobonosMexico’s reasury bondso French millionaires, Scotishpension unds, American insiuional invesors, and each oher. Our corpo-rae nance guys joked beween clien calls, gossiping abou Morgan Sanley’snewly rened space down he sree, and wheher an upcoming high-sociey

wedding would lead o a corporae merger. Hermès-ie-wearing businessmen(and jus a ew women) lled he serene couryard bar and resauran o he

FM indd xiFM.indd xi 10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM


13/215

P r e f a c e : h e “ R e a l ” M e x i c o xi i

newly opened Four Seasons, business lunches ofen exending ino he wilighhours. Long meals, bookended by small glasses o Don Julio equila, were paro he normal business schedule. Poliical heavies graviaed oward Casa Bell,

he also-new gardened couryard resaurancomplee wih songbirdsjusa ew blocks away. A he ivory-clohed ables, he seaing char was alwaysmeiculously curaed. Avid wachers o he ruling poliical pary’s smoke sig-nals could glimpse he curren hierarchy o power and avor rom he subleposiioning o advisors and aides a he ables radiaing ou rom a prominenminiser, or some days even he presiden himsel.

Wihin days o my arrival, his balance briey oundered wih he assassina-ion o Luis Donaldo Colosio, he dominan Insiuional Revoluionary Pary’s(PRI) presidenial candidae. Sil l jus nding my ee, I didn’ undersand is

signicance or Mexico. Bu, i urns ou, neiher did anyone else. Afer iniialmarke jiters, Presiden Carlos Salinas and his world-renowned nance min-iser, Pedro Aspe, reassured he markes, and kep he pary going hrough he

July 1994 presidenial elecion. Even afer a second poliical assassinaiono José Francisco Ruiz Massieu, secrear y general o he PRIprominen inves-men rms and voices shook off any worries ha Mexico migh be on he edgeo ye anoher economic crisis.

In Ocober, I emporarily joined our rading desk, lling he sea o a hon-eymooning colleague. For he nex hree weeks I ook orders rom oreign cli-

ens and negoiaed wih my local Mexican counerpars, cajoling hem o goeasy on he newbie gringa. As I (gladly) reurned o my research repors inearly November, my bosses, veerans o he 1982 Lain American deb crisis,sold all heir Mexico posiions, earul o a peso decline wih he presidenialransiion on December 1. Going agains he markes, hey were in rariedcompany. Over he course o 1994 Carlos Slim, a he ime Mexico’s wealhiesman (laer he world’s wealhies), convered over a billion dollars o dollar-denominaed deb owed by his various companies ino pesos.

Hisory did repea isel on December 19, 1994. His hand orced by dwin-

dling inernaional reserves, newly insalled Presiden Erneso Zedillo ini-ially devalued he peso by 15 percen. A bewildered and berayed marke henpummeled he currency, which quickly umbled pas six pesos o he dollarerasing hal o is value in he ollowing weeks.

Inaion rose, sores and resaurans closed, and millions los heir jobs.Even Mexico Ciy’s main volcano, Popocaepél, reaced, spewing ash acrosshe capial’s already beleaguered residens. Daily lie as a oreigner becamemore diffi cul. W hile no crushed by he economic crisis, crime quickly wors-ened. Te ofen eneraining rides in Mexico’s Volkswagen bug axi cabs

urned menacing, as sories o “express” kidnappingsorcing passengers o wihdraw he maximum rom AM machines beore dumping hem in ar-

FM indd xiiFM.indd xii 10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM


14/215

P r e f a c e : h e “ R e a l ” M e x i c o xi ii

ung, skechy neighborhoodsspread hrough he ex-pa communiy. Likeohers I knew, I was held up a gunpoin ouside my aparmen. Afer almoshree years, I decided o reurn o New York. While I and ohers didn’ realize

i, we were experiencing he lehal blow o Mexico’s hegemonic sysem. Onceall powerul, he PRI could no conrol he economic, poliical, and socialchanges ha would ollow.

I reurned o live in Mex ico Ciy a a very differen momen in 2002. Havinglef he invesmen banking world or academia, I came on a Fulbrigh granas a visiing researcher a he Auonomous Insiue o echnology, or IAM,one o Mexico’s mos presigious privae universiies locaed on he edge oSan Ángel, a cobble-soned neighborhood in he souh o he capial.

Much had changed in my absence. Immediaely noiceable was he air.

Economic shifs and governmen regulaions ha pushed acories ou o heciy and limied car use mean one could nally see, even on bad polluiondays, a leas a block ahead. Te ciy oo had expanded. Jus a mall, movie he-aer, and a couple o aparmen buildings in he mid-1990s, he ar wesernend o Reorma Avenue had become a ciy uno is own. Dubbed Sana Fe, oneel ranspored o a Houson suburb, he landscape dominaed by sleek glassoffi ce buildings inerspersed wih residenial high rises and gaed communiies.

Wih so many mulinaional corporaions headquarered in he new neighbor-hood manymosly Mexico’s richrarely headed ino he ciy’s cener any-

more, heir world now cenered on he wesward edge, halway o oluca. Teciy sreched arher o he eas as well, creeping ou pas he airpor o heoll boohs on he highway o Puebla, where miles o nealy appoined sarerhouses railed off oward he horizon.

Even as he upper and newly middle classes pushed ou and lled in heciy’s edges, Mexico’s cenral neighborhoods made a ull comeback. Condesaand Romaonce home o bookish immigrans and he bohemian senowatraced he chicer Lomas and Polanco crowd. Te incessan hammering oconsrucion workers slowly erased he 1985 earhquake scars, sleek apar-

men buildings popping up nex o saely belle époque and ar deco jewels.In he 1990s we had made he culinary rek o he ew Condesa ouposs:

Fonda Garua or is huilacoche pasa, or nex door o he newly opened Caéla Gloria or bisro-syle are. Nearly a decade laer, hese salwars were sur-rounded by dozens o compeiors, diners spil ling over he sidewalks and onohe srees. Te arrival o Mexico’s young, hip, and moneyed changed he eelo he leay neighborhoods.

Tese welcome shifs were jus one par o a larger ransormaion.Ubiquious shopping malls, inerne caés, and Walmars ed he consump-

ion habis o Mexico’s expanding middle class. Mexicans reveled in heir new-ound democracy, wih debaes over issues large and small covered in he now

FM indd xiiiFM.indd xiii 10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM


15/215

P r e f a c e : h e “ R e a l ” M e x i c o xi v

ercely independen press. Te counry began o reenvision is ies norh, wihpoliicians reerring o migrans as “diplomas” and even “heroes” raher hanimplici raiors o heir counry.

Bu even as he old sysem aded, new problems appeared. Poliical com-peiion brough legislaive deadlock, delaying necessary reorms. Freeelecions did litle o creae srong independen public insiuions or wide-spread accounabiliyrusraing ciizens and inernaional observers alike.Inernaional compeiion and Mexico’s own ailings mean only slow (i sa-

ble) economic growh, unable o provide opporuniies or many Mexicansa home. Workers and heir amilies coninued o migrae norh, despie heincreasingly hosile recepion rom U.S. policymakers, media, and a numbero communiies.

Some hings hadn’ changed. Crime, which spiked during he 1995 eco-nomic crisis, never subsided. Drug relaed violence, spurred by changes in heglobal narcoics indusry as well as he side effecs o Mexico’s democraiza-ion, rose. Te vacuum lef by he rereaing auocraic power o he PRI had

ye o be lled by a ar-reaching democraic rule o law. While saring he cenury on is mos promising noe ever, by 2003 Mexico’s

relaionship wih he Unied Saes had again sumbled, alling back ino ra-diional paterns o muual suspicion and vocal recriminaions in he raw daysollowing Sepember 11 and in he subsequen lead-up o he war in Iraq.

In he capial, he once-green VW bug axis had been mosly replaced bymore sedae maroon and gold Nissan surus and Volkswagen Jetas, houghhe chilangos’ passive-aggressive driving syle remained he same. Even asMexicans added he local Sam’s Club and Superama supermarkes o heirshopping circui, vendors sill did a swif business a he ciy’s soplighs andmajor inersecionshawking newspapers, phone cards, gum, “Japanese” pea-nus, oranges, even coa racks. Sill ubiquious, oo, were he weekly tianguis ,or open-air markes, where Mexicans o all sripes bough ruis, vegeables,and meas, as well as owers, pos, pans, and even elecronics in he emporary

maze o salls and sands se up under brigh red, pink, and blue arps, shield-ing he overloaded wooden palles rom he sun.

As I nished my research a he IAM, I again lef Mexico, hough hisime wih a greaer appreciaion o Mexico’s challenges, opporuniies, and isincredible imporance or he Unied Saes. Since hen, I remain a requen vis-ior o Mexico. Each ime, I see a sharp conras beween wha I read and hearin he Unied Saes abou our souhern neighbor and wha I experience on hesrees o Mexico. Mexico aces serious challenges, bu i is also commited oaddressing hem, working o enlarge is middle class, open is poliical sysem,

and provide or is ciizens. Wha is rue is ha he uure o is economy, isdemocracy, and is sociey hangs on he many choices being made oday.

FM indd xivFM.indd xiv 10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM


16/215

P r e f a c e : h e “ R e a l ” M e x i c o xv

Wha is also more apparen, whichever side o he border I am on, is ha heUnied Saes’ uure will be highly inuenced by hese oucomes nex door. Asone o he Unied Saes’ larges sources o rade, oil, people, culure, and ille-

gal subsances, wha happens in Mexico no longer says in Mexico. Te sakesor U.S. economic growh, social cohesion, and basic securiy are high.

Unorunaely, U.S. policy oward is neighbor hasn’ caugh up. Te oldmindses and approaches are now exacerbaing he challenges acing bohcounries, as we obsinaely ry o solve solo he many issues permeaing offi -cial boundaries. Mexican and American individuals and communiies span he

border, ouing oudaed and counerproducive immigraion laws. Decaying border inrasrucure limis Norh American compeiiveness, hiting he bo-om lines o boh U.S. and Mexican companies. Mexico’s economic sruggles

lead many ino illegal radesincluding drugs and conrabandand crimemore generally, which hen can spill over he border. Even as he UniedSaes spends billions o suppor democracy in araway places like Iraq and

Aghanisan in he search or world sabiliy, i overlooks he relaed srugglesnex door. Insead, he Unied Saes’ reacioncommiting bill ions o dollarsoward a border wallhasn’ sopped illegal migraion, raffi cking, or, in heend, made America saer.

Resolving hese problems, as well as aking advanage o hese opporuni-ies, requires a new approach o our neighbor. I requires a rehinking o he

Unied Saes’ undersanding o Mexico, and he orces ha have shaped i andha will shape is uure. I requires us o undersand hose problems romMexico’s perspecive as well as our own, and o pu U.S. real ineress ronand cener. Perhaps mos o all, i means undersanding he implicaions o heUnied Saes’ coninued hinking ha we can wall Mexico off, or he idea ha

we would ever wan o do so.

FM indd xvFM.indd xv 10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM


17/215FM indd xviFM.indd xvi 10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM10/24/2012 6:20:06 PM


18/215

1

1

Mexico at the Crossroad

Once a sleepy border own known bes or creaing he burrio, Ciudad Juárez

is now one o Mexico’s ases growing ciies. Hundreds o new buildings andacories ll he ciy’s srees, affi xed wih large signs announcing he presenceo world class companies: Boeing, Bosch, Lear, Delphi, and Siemens. Dozenso consrucion sies signal ha he seady sream o maquila acories and job-seekers is no abou o end. From he welfh oor o he orres Campesre building, you see downown El Paso, exas, now he smaller o he wo con-neced ciies.

In 2008 Juárez was named he “Ciy o he Fuure” by Foreign Direct Investment magazine, a rade journal o he Financial imes Group. Per capia

incomes surpassed Mexico’s average, and Juárez’s expansion spurred he big-ges housing boom in he naion. New cars lled he srees, dozens o soresand resaurans opened, and he ciy boased eigh universiies.

On a normal day a he Juárez-El Paso border crossings, some eighy hou-sand people come and go.

1 In he morning children line up wih backpacks, ready or school. Laer on,drivers carry shopping liss or business leads as hey pass hrough checkpoinso he oher side. A nigh, couples, amilies, and riends visi relaives or heado bars and paries in he neighborhood (and ofen counry) nex door.

Bu open a newspaper or urn on he elevision, and a very differen imageo Juárez emerges. Each morning, numbed reporers recoun he previousnighs’ murders. In 2009, Juárez’s deah coun opped 2500he highes inMexico. Juárez se anoher macabre record in 2010, surpassing hree housanddrug-relaed kill ings, making i by many measures he mos violen ciy in he world. 2011’s bloodshed brough he cumulaive ve year oal o more hannine housand souls.2 eenagers, wih litle else o do, hang around gawking a bloodsained sidewalks. Close o hal o Juárez’s youhs do no work or atendschool, seting hemselves up or a lie on he margins. Even in he srong mid-

day sun, he unlawul menace is palpable, leading residens o scurr y beweenheir houses and work, o resis lingering in he open air, o duck when a car

Ch01 indd 1Ch01.indd 1 10/24/2012 2:52:27 PM10/24/2012 2:52:27 PM


19/215

2

backres. W hole neighborhoods have empied ou, as he residens, driven byear, have made he hearbreaking decision o walk away rom heir homes. In2009 he governmen sen in seven housand miliary roops and ederal police

o parol he srees in acemasks and bulle proo vess, carrying auomaic weapons a he ready. Tis only emporari ly quelled some o he bloodshed.

Te exen o oday’s violence is unparalleled, bu crime is hardly new oCiudad Juárez. Drug-relaed violence rs exploded in 1997 when he JuárezCarel leader died while undergoing plasic surgery. Wha began as inra-carel ghing escalaed as he ijuana and Sinaloa drug raffi cking organiza-ions enered he ray in an atemp o gain conrol o he ciy’s lucraive bordercrossings. Ciudad Juárez is also inamous or he violen deahs o more hanour hundred young womenmos workers in he inernaional maquila ac-

ories. Teir murders remain unsolved; he law enorcemen sysem being oo weak, oo incompeen, or oo complici o delve ino he deep underworld ohis burgeoning Mexican ciy.

Juárez oday mirrors Mexico’sand he Unied Saes’larger dilemma.Can i realize is poenial and become a hub o Norh American compeiive-ness and inerconnecedness? Or will i succumb o inep governmen, weak-ened communiies, and escalaing violence, walled off raher han embraced by is neighbor nex door?

urn on U.S. cable news and sory afer sory recouns gruesome behead-

ings, specacular assassinaions, and brazen prison breaks, paining Mexicoas a counry overrun by drug lords and on he brink o collapse. More even-handed news oules aren’ ar behind. Te Los Angeles Times boass a wholesecion eniled “Mexico Under Siege.” I his hrea were no enough, pundisand poliicians alike conjure up images o vas waves o humaniy pouring overhe nearly wo housand-mile borderillegal aliens ooding U.S. schools andhospials, and aking Americans’ jobs. Wheher due o los jobs, illegal immi-grans, or hugs and drugs, Mexico’s “downward spiral” is seen as imperilinghe American way o lie.

Bu his convenional wisdom abou Mexico is incomplee. Worse, heresponsewalling he Unied Saes offis counerproducive and evenharmul o U.S. naional ineress. Paradoxically, such effors only make hedoomsday scenario nex door ha we so ear more likely, direcing billionso dollars away rom policies ha could acually improve U.S. securiy andprosperiy.

Overlooked, underrepored, and a imes even blaanly ignored in heUnied Saes is he posiive side o wha is happening in Mexico. Yes, heMexican governmen aces signican challengeshe mos urgen ha o

securiy. Bu as dismal as he curren news is, Mexico sands on he cusp oa promising uure. Mexico’s real sory oday is one o ongoing economic,



20/215

M e x i c o a t t h e C ro s s r o a d 3

poliical, and social ransormaion led by a rising middle class, increasinglydemanding voers, and enerprising individuals and organizaions working ochange heir counry rom he inside.

Mexico has come a long way. Tree generaions ago, he vas majoriy oMexicans lived in semi-eudal condiions, ied o he land and poliical bosses.wo generaions ago, Mexican sudens were massacred or heir poliical belies by he auhoriarian PRI governmen. oday, Mexico is a consolidaingdemocracy, an opening economy, and an urbanizing sociey. Mexico is less aproblem and more an answer or he economic, securiy, and inernaional dip-lomaic challenges he Unied Saes aces oday.

Tis isn’ he rs ime he Unied Saes has misundersood is souhernneighbor, or ha is misguided acions have exacerbaed he problems pla-

guing boh counries. Wha is differen now is how imporan he oucomes inMexico are or our own uure. Over he las ew decades, hrough he move-men and inegraion o companies, producs, and people, Mexico and heUnied Saes have become indelibly inerwined in ways ha mos Americansdo no see or undersand. Wha happens in Mexico oday has ramicaions orowns, ciies, and saes across he Unied Saes; his realiy has ye o sink in,a leas on he norhern side o he border.

Policies such as he border wall assume ha he challenges boh counriesace can be solved unilaerally. Tis oo is wrong. Insead o clinging o he

myh o auonomy, we mus nd a beter way o work wih our neighbor orour own well-being. I we don’, he consequences will be ar worse han weimagine.

Mexico’s Crossroads

Afer nearly hree ransormaive decades, Mexico is sill in he mids ochange, sil l orging is global poliical, economic, and social ideniy. Pushed

here by he challenges o massive emigraion, poliical and economic open-ing, and widespread insecuriy, i has come o a crossroads. Mexico can ollowa pah ha makes he mos o is opporuniies, or i can be consumed by isproblems. Te counry aces wo exreme poenial uuresi could evolveino a highly developed democracy such as Spain, or i could deeriorae ino a weak and unreliable sae, dependen on and hosage o a drug economyan Aghanisan.

I is no anasy o sugges ha Mexico has he opporuniy o become heSpain o he Wesern Hemisphere. Under he igh poliical reins o General

Francisco Franco, Spain began is ransormaion in he lae 1950s. Long hepoor cousin o is Norhern European neighborswih a per capia income



21/215

4

a he ime on par wih Mexico, no FranceSpain slowly emerged rom ispos-WWII shell. From a base in a new economic planning offi ce, savv y ech-nocras wresled back policy conrol rom he Falangis old guard, laboring o

reverse years o sel-enorced economic isolaion and lingering suspicions ois pro-Axis pas.

Iniially bypassed by he Marshall plan, oreign aid and invesmen pouredino he counry in he 1960s. ouriss reurned o Mallorca’s beaches,Granada’s Moorish palaces, and Madrid’s caes. Combined wih he remi-ances o he mil lion Spaniards abroad, he inux spurred a decade o unprece-dened indusrializaion and economic growh, dubbed he “Spanish miracle.”I drove inernal migraion rom he counryside o he ciies, and creaed alarge new middle class. Jus as hese changes hreaened Franco’s conservaive

reign, he Generalissimo died. A peaceul ransiion o democracy and Spain’saccession o he European Common Marke ollowed. Flash orward hreedecades, and Spaineven wih is curren problemsis now an advancedeconomy, a middle class sociey (wih per capia incomes averaging US$30,000a year), a srong democracy, and a respeced naion on he world sage.

Mexico could ollow a similar pah. I is already siuaed rmly in he op ierso nearly every comparaive inernaional democracy index.3 Since NAFA,Mexico has been a darling o he oreign direc invesmen crowdreceivinga quarer o all Lain America bound invesmenequal o and ofen surpass-

ing Brazil ’s share. Add in he bill ions in remitances rom is migrans, and hees becomes urning Mexico’s resource base, and is ies o he world’s largeseconomy, o rue advanage. Sharing much more han a common language,Mexico oday holds many o he same opporuniiesand aces many o hesame challengesha is colonial orbearer conroned wih such aplomb.

Leveraging hese benes and broader U.S. ies, per capia income couldincrease and Mexico could become a op en world economy. Suppored bymigrans residing in he Unied Saes and a growing middle class a home,Mexico’s democracy could hrive. A lready afforded a prominen plaorm as a

G-20 counry, Mexico could emerge as an imporan diplomaic voice aroundhe world.

A Spain nex door would bring asonishing benes or he Unied Saes. An esablished democraic rule o law would dispel many o oday’s secu-riy worries. A srong Mexican economy would boos our own ar ino heuureas he ow o goods and people souh could easily rival hose headednorh. Given our already close amily, communiy, economic, and poliicalies, a hriving Mexico could be a much needed ally a a ime when he UniedSaes is in need o mulilaeral suppor. A Spanish syle ransormaion would

nally ulll a decades-long U.S. oreign policy goal o surrounding our naion wih srong, sable, and prosperous democracies.



22/215


Ta scenario isn’ guaraneed, however. Mexico could also all ino adrug-driven downward spiral o violence and insabiliy; here is a chance icould descend ino a narco-sae, where basic securiy and any semblance o

he rule o law remain elusive ouside he ew larger ciies. Drug carels couldoverwhelm Mexico’s emerging democraic governmen, horoughly corrup-ing sae insiuions a every level. Te lack o basic public saey would sendhe legal economy ino a ailspin, desroying he oundaions o he counry’sgrowing middle class. Mexico would become he subjec o, raher han paric-ipan in, mulilaeral meeings, as oher naions ried o limi he inernaionalallou.

Mexico oday is nowhere near his wors case scenario, bu races o growingdisorder are here. Criminal gangs cull he poorer neighborhoods or recruis,

pulling in youh devoid o oher opporuniies or o hope. Drug lords leverageamilial ies o build mulinaional illegal enerprises, supplying he vices ohe Wes. Tese criminals are already esing he vulnerabiliies o Mexico’sdemocraic poliics, bribing some offi cials, hreaening ohers, and weakeninglocal poliical and social srucures.

A descen ino anarchy nex door would come a a seep cos o he UniedSaes. A devasaed Mexican economy and sociey would push waves ociizens norh, searching or work and basic saey. Te roops and resourcesrequired o secure he wo housand mile U.S.-Mexico border rom drug ra-

ckers, migrans, and erroriss would ar ousrip hose sen o Aghanisanor Iraq. More damaging, shuting he U.S.-Mexico border would change our way o lie. A susained hrea so close o home would miliarize U.S. sociey,economy, and poliics in ways unseen beore. Te coss in erms o reasure,man-power, and he U.S. naional ehos would be enormous.

Ye as much as we ear his oucome, i isn’ ineviable. I is no even he moslikely. Mexico has changed in recen years, largely or he beter. For all he worry, he Unied Saes is lucky o have Mexico nex door. Tere is l ikely no border beween such economically asymmerical naions ha is as coopera-

ive and peaceul. Wha Mexico will never be is ar away. And he ies oday beween he

Unied Saes and Mexico go ar beyond sheer geography. While he moni-ker “disan” may once have been ap, i is no longer he case. 4 Perhaps nooher counry is as inerwined wih he Unied Saes as Mexico, bound byeconomic, environmenal, culural, amilial, securiy, and diplomaic ies.

Building an impenerable walli ha were even possiblewon’ solve heproblems, as U.S. ies o Mexico will no sop wih a line on he map. Mexico’suure is permanenly linked o our own. Te deepening o business, personal,

culural, and communiy relaions has drawn he Unied Saes and Mexicomuch closer han ever.



23/215

6

Mexican migraion, always par o he bilaeral relaionship, skyrockeedover he las hree decades as, each year, hundreds o housands o Mexicanciizens headed norh. Some welve million Mexicans and over hiry million

Mexican-Americans now call he Unied Saes home, and are a permanenpar o America’s social abric. Less visible is he ac ha a mil lion Americanshave moved souh, creaing he larges U.S. communiy abroad in he world. 5 Mexico’s workers ueled he U.S. economy during years o record low unem-ploymen raes. And hey hold he promise o miigaing he nex economicchallenge on he horizon: he reiremen o he oversized baby boomergeneraion.

NAFA-led economic inegraion has been a success no jus or Mexico, bu or he Unied Saes. rade beween he naions has ripled, as Mexico

rose rom middling parner o he second larges expor marke afer Canadaor U.S. goods. Each monh, exas now expors over US$7 billion andCali ornia over US$2 billion in producs o is neighbor. Bu his bonanza isn’limied jus o border saes. Te economies o saes such as Souh Dakoa,Nebraska, and New Hampshire now send roughly a quarer o heir oalexpors o Mexico as well.6 Producs range rom elecronic equipmen, moor vehicle pars, chemicals, and household appliances o paper producs, redmea, pears, and grapes. So, oo, many o he Unied Saes’ agship indusriesdepend on Mexico or heir survival and success. Inegraion wih Mexico has

allowed gians such as GM, Johnson & Johnson, GE, and Hewlet Packardo lower coss and compee in global markes where hey would oherwise be excludedcreaing more expors and jobs or boh he Unied Saes andMexico in he process.

All o hese ies mean ha he impac o Mexico’s collapse would reach arino he hearland. Decimaed rading ies would hreaen millions o U.S.(no o menion Mexican) jobs. And i would ear apar U.S. amilies andcommuniies.

Te exchange isn’ always posiive. I is he U.S. demand or drugs ha has

unded and guns ha have armed Mexico’s drug carels. Tese increasinglysophisicaed criminal organizaions now operae in over one housand U.S.ciies.7 Closing he border will no end heir dominance in Phoenix, Alana,or Sark Couny, Ohio. Insead, i would limi he inelligence gahering andinernaional law enorcemen cooperaion necessary o ake he carels downand o proec America’s srees in he process.

U.S. and Mexican diplomacy and policies lag ar behind hese deepenedies, based as hey are on an undersanding o our souhern neighbor ha isincreasingly disconneced rom realiy. Tis gap has become no jus unoru-

nae, bu downrigh dangerous. Our misundersandings and misguided poli-cies have and will have real consequences as Mexico aces is uure.



24/215


Creating a New Partnership

Working wih Mexicoor he good o boh counrieswill require no jusa new se o policies (hough hese oo are needed), bu a larger concepualshif oward orging a rue parnership. We can only work wih Mexico o ormhis connecion i we know he orces ha shape i. I is vial ha he UniedSaes undersands he pos-PRI, pos-NAFA, pos-9/11 global Mexico osrenghen he good and limi he bad rom such a close, bu sill unequal rela-ionship. By coninuing o misundersand or ignore he goings-on souh o our border, we are leaving America’s ae in par in Mexican hands. I argue ha weshould deermine i ourselves, bu ha we can only do so hrough acive effors based no on conic bu cooperaion.

A new parnership should sar by creaing an environmen ha under-sands how highly inerconneced he wo naions are and suppors raherhan shuns he binaional people, amilies, and communiies already exisingin and beween us. Tis means rehinking immigraion and border policieso encourage, no hinder, he legal movemen o Mexican workers and heiramilies.

Upending he curren hinking, Americans may soon come o see immi-graion as he answer ono he cause omany o he Unied Saes’ woes.Under he curren radar are inelucable demographic shifs happening on bohsides o he border. Changed amily paterns mean ha ewer Mexicans will be coming o age, and needing jobs. In he Unied Saes, he eighy millionsrong baby boomer generaion is beginning o reire, leaving more openingshan he smaller “Generaion X” could hope o ll. Tis combinaion may leado a rapid urnaround on his ho buton issue: desperae o close he gaps in America’s workorce, in he nex decade we may be urging Mexicans o comeo he Unied Saes.

Diplomaically, we also need o rehink he Unied Saes’ approach in ligho Mexico’s ongoing poliical ransormaion. A sronger parnership provideshe bes venue or a prominen U.S. weny-rs cenury oreign policy pri-oriy: democracy promoion. Despie requen misundersandings, our longshared hisory, inerwined economies, and srong personal and communiylinks provide he consan mulilayered ineracion necessary o work ogeheroward he complex goal o srenghening democracy. Join economic develop-men iniiaives, suppor or local ciizen organizaions, and effors o increaseransparency and srenghen cours and police orces, wil l all bene rom hesrong links ha already exis beween our wo naions.

Mexico, no he Middle Eas, should be he es case or solidiying marke- based democracy. I is no only much more likely o succeed, bu also argua- bly much more likely o hur he Unied Saes i i ails. Mexico’s success is



25/215

8

more probable because i has already aken many ough seps, all on is own. Afer seveny years o one pary rule, Mexicans used heir voes o usher inan opposiion pary presiden. Abandoning a long hisory o ballo box suff-

ing, Mexico’s paries now compee in quie clean and ransparen elecions.Mexico’s over 100 million ciizens dream oand are already working hardo creaea vibran and prosperous poliical sysem where heir voices can be heard and hard work rewarded. I successul, Mexico would provide aposiive example o a newly consolidaed democracy, and lessons or ohers worldwide.

Neverheless, i sill aces considerable challenges. Many in ac worr y haMexico’s democraic gains may be los, overcome by poliical bosses, specialineress, and drug-relaed violence. And Mexico’s ailure would lead o disas-

rous consequences or U.S. oreign policy, no o menion America’s economic,poliical, and social well-being a home. Te Unied Saes’ ocus elsewhereparicularly in Asia and he Middle Eashas disraced us rom he gamechanging imporance o poliical choices being made jus nex door.

A beter parnership also requires rehinking U.S.-Mexico economic rela-ionsin paricular moving beyond he prejudices and misinormaion hahave grown up around NAFA. In he Unied Saes, he grea sucking soundo American jobs going souh didn’ happen. Insead, wih nearly hal a rill iondollars o goods owing back and orh each year, Mexican consumers and

companies suppor over wo million U.S. workers direcly and our millionmore indireclyas he earnings rom expors cascade down ino local econo-mies.8 Tough he benes spread unevenly, by spurring and reinorcing eco-nomic opening NAFA ransormed Mexico, and helped secure he economicunderpinnings o oday’s broadening middle class. I also encouraged (albeiuninenionally) Mexico’s democraizaion.

Bu or all his, he agreemen isel and more imporanly he concep oa Norh American economic plaorm has allen ino disavor. Few in DesMoines, S. Louis, or Alana, much less in Washingon, see Mexico as par o

he soluion o he Unied Saes’ curren sruggles o become more econom-ically compeiive. Recognizing he benes o cross-border producion is anuphill bu necessary batle i he Unied Saes wans o boos expors, jobs,and overall economic growh.

Parnership, oo, is he only way o sop he curren bloodshed since hecausedrug-ed organized crimehrives on boh sides o he border. Givenincreasingly sophisicaed criminal neworks spanning he globe, inelligencegahering, analysis, and operaions canno sop wih a l ine (or wall) in he sand. Wha Mexico needs is o rmly esablish a democraic rule o law. Wihou

clean cops and clean cours, he insecuriy will never end. And he UniedSaes needs o grapple wih is own role in supplying he money and he guns



26/215


ha uel he violence. ogeher, he wo naions can be more successul akingon he corrupion and impuniy ha permi and perpeuae violence.

Increased cooperaion means leaving behind he isolaionis endencies o

boh naions. Bu his more ambiious ramework will be he bes (and perhapsonly) way o ensure a sae, sable, and prosperous uure on boh sides o he border.

Despie oday’s resounding negaiviy, ransorming U.S.-Mexico relaionsis no only imporan bu also possible. Economic, demographic, and securiydevelopmens in boh counries are and will provide opporuniies o push ornew and beter approaches. Tose mos closely ied o MexicoU.S. compa-nies and heir workers, border communiies, Mexican-American voershave ye o make heir quie powerul voices heard. A n opening or debae and he

opporuniy o change he Unied Saes’ approach is coming. For our ownsake he shif needs o be or he beter.

Tis book provides a roadmap or undersanding and addressing he big-ges overlooked oreign policy challenge o our imeU.S. relaions wih issouhern neighbor. Overurning he convenional wisdom and condemninghe effors o ry and wall ourselves off (lierally and guraively) rom ourneighbor, i argues or prioriizing and expanding bilaeral ies.

Presening a picure o a very differen Mexico han mos Americans see andread abou, he ollowing chapers race he complex and inerwined issues o

immigraion, poliical change, economic opening, and rising violence, illumi-naing how much Mexico has changed over he las hiry years, and how heseransormaions inuence how Mexicoand he Unied Saeswill navi-gae he curren crossroads.

Mexico oday boass a vibran (i imperec) democracy, a growing middleclass, and is on he verge o becoming an imporan inernaional player andeasy al ly or he Unied Saes. Mexico can be a soluion, raher han a problemor he Unied Saes. Bu his posiive oucome canno be aken or graned.Mexico sill aces sark challenges on he road o democraic sabiliy and

prosperiy.In he end, Mexico’s pah, o course, depends on Mexicans. No oher naion

can decide is uure. Bu, hrough our acions or inacions, he Unied Saescan eiher suppor Mexico or hrow urher obsacles in is way. And whicheverpah Mexico akes will have ar reaching repercussions or he Unied Saes.



27/215

10

2

Reenvisioning U.S.-MexicoDiplomatic Relations

Wih a heavy hear U.S. Ambassador Carlos Pascual handed his resignaion letero Secreary Hillary Clinon in March 2011. Tough she had urged him o say,o ride ou he diplomaic sorm, in he end he pressure became oo grea. He worried ha Presiden Calderón would never ge beyond his now open animos-iy, and ha i would spread and hreaen he larger U.S.-Mexico relaionship.

Tings had sared ou quie well. On a ho Augus day less han wo years beore, Pascual had descended he sairs o Airorce One wih Presiden Obamain Guadalajara. Wih Mexico playing hos, he newly conrmed Ambassador

sa in on meeings among he U.S., Mexican, and Canadian presidens a heannual rilaeral summi.

A ew weeks laer he headed o Mexico’s capiol, receiving warm welcomesas he began he rounds o meeing governmen minisers, opposiion leaders,academics, business owners, civil sociey aciviss, and journaliss. Energized by he ambiions on boh sides o he border o deepen cooperaion, he spenlong days working wih his Mexican counerpars o expand and reenvision bilaeral securiy ies. He also labored in Washingon, visiing, discussing, aimes cajoling dozens o offi cials in nearly as many agencies and deparmens,

working o weave ogeher he broad-based suppor necessary or his morecomplex vision o U.S.-Mexico collaboraion.

As he neared his rs year anniversary, opimism prevailed. Te revampedMerida Iniiaive (a U.S.-Mexico join securiy plan) would move beyond ak-ing down drug kingpins o working o rebuild Mexico’s law enorcemen and jusice insiuions, and even o address deep social challenges in places suchas Juárez. Te bilaeral v ision was so broad ha he wo governmens se abou building a new offi ce o house ogeher members rom U.S. and Mexican secu-riy orces alike, working side by side. All he while Ambassador Pascual kep

criss-crossing he counry, shaking hands, cuting ribbons, and working wihhis Mexican counerpars o advance he shared agenda.



28/215

R e e n v i s i o n i n g U . S . - M e x i c o D i p l o m a t i c R e l a t i o n s 11

Te rs cracks in his new bilaeral edice began o show during he all o2010. Tough he new securiy vision had always been joinly rumpeed, on-he-ground effors were coming up shor. However hard Pascual and his eam

pushed or change, Mexico’s ederal governmen and bureaucracy draggedheir ee, seemingly unwilling or unable o move beyond miliary and ederalpolice raids. Repors back suggesed ha no only were governmen minisersno puting heir ull orce behind he effors, bu ha he Ambassador’s con-sisen pressure irked he presiden.

Pascual’s personal lie oo was creaing problems. His deepening relaion-ship wih he ex-wie o he presiden’s ormer chie o saff and daugher o aprominen PRI leader was said o also boher he presiden, who saw he poli-ical in he personal.

Tese ensions overowed wih he release o several condenial cables by Wiki leaks ha winer. Signed by he Ambassador and his Depuy Chie oMission, John Feeley, hey presened unlered assessmens o he srenghs and weaknesses o he Mexican governmen’s securiy effors, poining o a hide- bound Mexican army, inghing beween Mexico’s various securiy insiuions,and worries abou corrupion and human righs abuses. While in line wih he views o numerous independen analyssas well as many securiy offi cials inheir more candid momenshe leaks embarrassed he Calderón governmen,and provided odder or rival poliicians as he Mexican elecoral arena heaed up

or 2011 gubernaorial races and looked ahead o he 2012 presidenial cones.In response, Calderón urned o he press. In a wide-ranging and sensa-

ional inerview in El Universal , one o Mexico’s leading newspapers, he venedhis anger. He accused he U.S. diplomas o “laying i on hick,” disoringand exaggeraing heir analyses or ulerior moives. He wen urher, sayinghe lack o coordinaion and rivalry was no on he Mexican bu he U.S. side,among he Immigraion and Cusoms Enorcemen, he Drug Enorcemen Agency, and he Cenral Inelligence Agency. Te viriol was so srong haU.S. Homeland Securiy head Jane Napoliano ormally responded he nex

day, assering ha no only did U.S. agencies work well ogeher, hey also worked closely wih heir Mexican counerpars.

In March 2011, jus a ew weeks laer, Calderón headed o Washingon omee wih Barack Obama, and address a join session in Congress. Tough heprivae discussions beween he wo leaders ranged widely, i was Calderón’spublic commens o he Washingon Pos ha dened he visi, and in hese heagain skewered he U.S. Ambassador. wo weeks laer, Mexico los an impor-an inerlocuor and champion or he U.S.-Mexico relaionship, and he earo many in Washingon.

For decades, he bilaeral relaionship has had s and sarsbegin-ning wih expansive promises rom new presidens, and ending wih biter



29/215

12

divisions. Domesic poliics were ofen behind he racure, as Mexico’s rulingPRI pained he Unied Saes as he grea imperialis o jusiy is excesses andheavy poliical hand, and U.S. adminisraions ofen changed course a he rs

hin o domesic opposiion o more expansive and cooperaive approaches.Personal differences and real and perceived affrons also a imes played a rolein sinking once promising bilaeral ies.

Tis laes episode highlighed ha hough boh counries sress heir iner-dependence and he need o ransorm he way he bilaeral relaionship g-ures in he public debae in he Unied Saes and in Mexico, hey are sill quiedisan rom achieving his goal.

America’s Strong Arm

During he nineeenh and early wenieh cenuries, conics beween heUnied Saes and Mexico ofen were resolved wih guns, nearly always oMexico’s derimen. When Mexico nally gained is independence in 1821, isdominion over New Spain brough vas erriories bu very litle conrol. Tepachwork o undersandings and reaies relinquished by rereaing Spanish,French, and Briish colonialiss lef he acual borders unclear and insecure,and Norh America up or grabs.

Tough he Unied Saes was o a similar size and populaion, and hadless han a hal-cenury head sar on Mexico, i gelled as a naion much moreswifly. Having assered auhoriy over is own erriory, i quickly began ocove more. Packaging is voraciousness as “manies desiny,” he buddingrepublic pledged o answer he call o spread progress and democracy o newlands, rom sea o shining sea. Is gaze urned quickly souh and weso whaoday are exas, Arizona, New Mexico, and Caliornia.

While echnically Mexican lands, all paries knew ha possession (hroughsetlemen) was a leas nine-enhs o ronier law. In he 1820s only a couple

o norhern Mexican ouposs, in wha would become exas exisedoday’sSan Anonio and Goliad. Te ew housand Mexican naives lived in a saeo virual siege, hreaened by rumors o Spanish and Briish expediions andpreyed upon by marauding bands o Comanche Indians.

1 Te Mexican governmensuffering rom a perennial shorage o cash, batles beween poliical acions (leading o hiry-six governmens in wen-y-wo years), and no naional spirisruggled o develop a coheren policyor is borderlands and even o proec is ew pioneers. Desperae, he govern-men urned o colonizaion, graning large racs o land o hose willing o

swear ealy o he Mexican ag. For Mexico and is erriorial inegriy, hisurned ou o be a grave misake.



30/215


Ta call was answered mainly by setlers rom U.S. erriories. In he rsen years he inviaion brough in some weny-ve housand newcomersoverwhelming he ew housand original Mexicans. Some o hem, such as

Sephen Ausin, wen by he book. Ausin worked his way hrough he iner-necine acions and bureaucracies o obain legal righs o he lands he andhis brehren inhabied. Bu many more ooded in wihou he legal niceiesand hen brisled a Mexico’s epid atemps o asser is auhoriy. Te volailecombinaion o U.S. expansionism and Mexico’s chronic insabiliy came oa head in 1836. Te imposiion o a new consiuion (ha moderaely raisedaxes and ariffs and enorced basic ciizenship rules) pushed he exans overhe edge.2

Wih exas in ull revol, General Anonio López de Sana Anna (serving

his ourh o eleven urns as presiden) se off eagerly rom Mexico Ciy wih aew housand roops o each hem a lesson and o burnish his name, bolser-ing his poliical suppor hrough miliary vicory. In lae February he orcearrived in San Anoniohome o a small orress, he Alamo.

When Americans “remember he Alamo” oday, i conjures up images o James Bowie, Davy Crocket, William B. ravis, and wo hundred oher exansghing bravely agains impossible odds. For Mexico, he sory is o radical American immigrans hreaening naional sovereigny. Tough he exanslos he batleand nearly all o hem heir livesSana Anna’s brualiy

galvanized exans’ resolve. A monh laer exan orces caugh he Mexicans by surprise and capured Sana Anna, effecively ending he war. While heexans celebrae he surrender as a vicory agains yranny, Mexicans view hesuccession o exas as a case o migh riumphing over righ.

Jus en years laer, he border again eruped in batle. Afer he Mexicangovernmen rejeced a U.S. offer or wha is oday Arizona, New Mexico,Caliornia, and pars o Colorado, Uah, and Kansas, Presiden James Polkdecided o ake he land by orce. Provoking a skirmish along he dispuedexas-Mexico border, he U.S. quickly declared war on May 13, 1846. Some

seveneen monhs laer, General Wineld Scot raised he American ag overMexico Ciy’s Chapulepec Casle o he rerains o he Sar Spangled Banner.Sana Annaagain presidenhad ed, leaving he Chie Jusice o negoi-ae ye anoher humiliaing surrender.3 Te 1853 Gadsden Purchase addedinsul o injury, as he U.S. used coercive diplomacyhrough a hinly veiledhrea o miliary inerveniono orce he Mexicans ino paring wih yeanoher chunk o erriory, his ime o saisy U.S. ransconinenal railroadambiions.

During he nearly decade long conic saring in 1910 ha became known

as he Mexican Revoluion, U.S. roops and cavalry crossed ino Mexican erri-ory repeaedly, ofen pushed by U.S. business and oher ineress and a imes



31/215

14

pulled by various Mexican poliical and miliary acions hoping o gain anadvanage over heir rivals. In 1913 he U.S. ambassador became complici inhe plo o kill democraically eleced Presiden Francisco Madero. Ye in he

poliical and miliary chaos ha ollowed his deah, he Unied Saes souredon his successor, General Vicoriano Huera.4 Presiden Woodrow Wilson, wih he preense o eaching Mexicans o “elec good men,” sen some eighhundred marines and sailors ino Veracruz o seize a shipmen o guns and henhe por isel rom Huera loyaliss.5 Many believe he Unied Saes was deci-sive in urning he ide rs agains Madero, hen agains Huera, and nallyin grudging suppor o Venusiano Carranza. In ac, some see he MexicanRevoluion as an “inervened civil war,” poining o he meddlesome role ohe Unied Saes hroughou.6

U.S. miliary inererence didn’ sop here. In 1916, U.S. roops crossedhe border again, his ime o chasehough never quie cachPancho Villa hrough he Sierra Madre Mounains. Inuriaed ha he Unied Saeshad sided wih his once-riend and now arch-enemy Presiden Carranza, heDurango-born cowboy goaded he U.S. governmen ino batle. He ki lled six-een exan mining engineerspulling hem off a Norh Wesern RailwayCompany rainand hen raided Columbus, New Mexico, killing seveneen beore he local cavalry drove him and his pistoleros back across he border.7 Te Unied Saes responded wih he so-called Puniive Expediion, sending

a orce o nearly ve housand roops in realiaion. Tough a ruhless killerand noorious bandi, Villa also was a hero o Mexico’s poor, an avenger orhe downrodden. Wih ew locals willing o guide U.S. roops hrough helabyrinhine hil ls and canyons agains a avorie son, Villa and his army deflyavoided General John Pershing’s advances. Afer several monhs he wo gov-ernmens negoiaed a peaceul resoluion, and he Unied Saes lef empy-handed.

Te bilaeral sparring didn’ end wih he physical ghing. U.S. eco-nomic ineress in Mexico only deepened during he years o urmoil. In

ac, many U.S. businesses ourished wih he upheavals, emerging rom heRevoluionary period more powerul and wealhy, holding he lion’s share oMexico’s naural resources. Te U.S. governmen was no shy abou deendingis ciizens and companies, hreaening o wihhold diplomaic recogniion oro suspend U.S. reasury purchases o Mexican silver a he rs hin ha heirreewheeling righs migh be hreaened.8 Tese ensions coninued hrough-ou he 1920s and 1930s.

Te mos inammaory gh occurred over oil. Te Revoluionary years were very good o Mexican oiland he American companies ha domi-

naed he secor.9 Invesmen poured in, and oupu boomed, increasing romless han 4 million barrels on he eve o he Revoluion in 1910 o over 150



32/215


million in 1920.10 Mexican oil producion grew o over a quarer o he world’soil needs.11 Companies such as he Mexican Peroleum Company o Delawareand Sandard Oil o New Jersey ruled as virual saes wihin a sae, arroganly

ouing he edgling pos-Revoluionary governmen’s new laws, regulaions,and axes.

Te erces dispue was over subsoil righswho acually owned he oil below. In he colonial imes he monarch reained ull conrol o he oil reserves, bu in 1887 he Porrio Díaz regime handed he righs o privaeand moslyoreign-ownedcompanies. Te 1917 Revoluionary Consiuion ook backownership o Mexico’s naural resources, limiing oreign companies o con-cessions.12 Bu U.S. companiesbacked by he Sae Deparmendemandedhe Mexican governmen respec heir previous deals.

In 1938, hese simmering dispues reached a nal dramaic showdown beween he oil magnaes and he Mexican governmen.13 Sandoffs beween workers and owners escalaedleading o massive srikes. Rejecing govern-men arbiraion, he dispues nally ended up in ron o he Supreme Cour. When he oil companies reused o comply wih he verdic agains hem,Presiden Lázaro Cardenas naionalized he secor, o recover no jus oil, bu“he digniy o Mexico.” Unable o convince Presiden Roosevel o inervene,he slighed companies engineered a widespread boycot, leading o shorageshroughou he Mexican economy. 14 Tese ensions ended only wih Pearl

Harbor and he U.S. enrance ino he Second World War.

America’s Helping Hand

Tis narraive o hreas, inimidaion, and inervenion dominaes sandardhisorical recaps o U.S.-Mexico relaions.15 Ye no all bilaeral ineracions were violen, abusive, or even srained. Ofen orgoten is he subsanial coop-eraion and even camaraderie beween boh peoples and counries since heir

oundings. Te rs ickers o cross-border riendship emerged in he 1820s.Mexican ederaliss warmly welcomed he rs U.S. ambassador (hen calledminiser) Joel Robers Poinset, and even modeled heir 1824 Consiuionafer ours.16 In he decade afer he Gadsden Purchase, he Unied Saes kepMexico’s dream o becoming a republic alive by shelering he exiled Benio Juárez, among he mos beloved o Mexico’s presidens, in New Orleans.During he 1860s he Unied Saes wen urher, providing Juárez wih armsand even roops in his successul overhrow o he French-backed would-beEmperor, Ferdinand Maximilian Joseph. Laer, he Unied Saes would pro-

ec Francisco Madero, he Coahuilan whose reormis movemen endedPorrio Díaz’s reign.



33/215

16

Cordial, even close, economic relaions developed in he later hal o henineeenh cenury. Once back in offi ce, Presiden Benio Juárez coninued olook norh, creaing he rs offi cial ree-rade zones along he border. General

Porrio Díaz expanded and deepened hese ies during his weny-seven- year reign (1884–1911), which became known as he Porriao.17 Guided byhis moto, “Order and progress,” Díaz ocused his considerable energies andpower on modernizing Mexico. Trough concessions, preerenial ariffs,subsidies, and even ourigh grans, he coured oreign individuals, money,and know-how. U.S. enrepreneurs, corporaions, and speculaors respondedenhusiasically.

Te inux o oreign capialcombined wih poliical sabiliyled orapid economic growh. Te exernal unds helped build hundreds o acories,

lay housands o miles o rai lway, consruc counless docks, expand elegraphlines, se up elecriciy grids, and pave srees. Mexico became a op world pro-ducer o gold, copper, zinc, iron, and lead, as well as an exporer o coffee, live-sock, and beans.18 Inernally, Mexico began producing is own seel, cemen,and dynamie, and expanding producion o basics such as obacco, beer, andexiles.19 Te speed and breadh o Mexico’s modernizaion would have beenimpossible wihou is norhern neighbor’s suppor.

Tese bonds reshaped bilaeral relaions. Mexico became he rs real orayabroad or U.S. businesses, a esing ground or domesic companies wih

dreams o becoming mulinaionals. Even as he “more developed” counrieso he dayBriain, France, and Germanyinvesed in he Unied Saes, American invesors ocked souh, sending over a billion dollars (some US$25 billion in oday’s erms) o Mexico around he urn o he wenieh cenury.20

Joining hundreds o lesser-known invesors were some o America’s bes-known ians. William Randolph Hears amassed nearly seven million acreso land. Te American Smeling and Rening Company (ASARCO)owned by he Guggenheimsquickly became he larges privaely owned companyin Mexico, dominaing silver, lead, and copper producion hrough is mines,

smelers, and reneries.21 Companies such as Royal Duch–Shell and SandardOil also invesed heavily and proed handsomely.22

Tese invesors became inegral oand a imes leaders oU.S. oreignpolicy. William Randolph Hears probably saw he Mexican presiden moreofen han he U.S. ambassador did, as he rouinely lunched wih Díaz, whoaffecionaely reerred o him as a son.23 Te Guggenheims and Rockeellers,among ohers, direcly pressed heir cases and concerns wih Mexican secrear-ies, minisers, and he presiden himselwih he implici and ofen explicipower o he U.S. governmen behind hem. Te inverse was also ruehe

Mexican governmen leaned on hese moguls or argeed invesmen andeven advanced ax paymens when governmen coffers were empy.



34/215


Yankee money was no necessarily benign. A merican invesors were by nomeans socially responsible (o use oday’s jargon). In an age o robber baronsand bare-knuckled capialism, child labor, healh, and saey regulaions were

ew, and discriminaion beween U.S. and Mexican workers sark. Te eco-nomic benes didn’ rickle down beyond a small elie. Raher han diminish-ing, povery worsened in he years leading up o he Mexican Revoluion. Tepoor had so litle ha a 1904 upick o corn priceshe saple o a workingclass diewiped ou he domesic exile indusry, as he average Mexicancould no longer afford coton cloh.24

In heir role as pseudo-emissaries, U.S. businessmen ofen pressured heMexican governmen or heir own narrow ineress, hreaening Mexico wihU.S. ariff hikes i he governmen raised axes or ried o enorce less-han-

indusry-riendly rules.25 Te rapaciousness o some, and heir dominance oMexico’s vial inrasrucure and exracive indusries, made even PorrioDíaz begin o worr y abou he concenraion o power and asymmeric naureo he U.S.-Mexico relaionship, and o seek ou European invesors and all ies.For good and bad, his de aco diplomacy coninued hrough and afer heRevoluion, wih American companies and magnaes ofen dening U.S. iner-ess and acions.

Te Border

Te push and pull o early U.S.-Mexico relaions was no more emblemaichan a he border. For decades neiher cenral governmen knew much abou,much less conrolled, heir roniers. Te ravails o successive surveyors showhe immensiy o he ask o jus dening he line, somehing ha wasn’ ullyresolved unil he 1960s.26

In he beginning people, catle, communiies, and commerce crossed,hardly recognizing heir daily paterns as “inernaional relaions.” Ranches,

arms, and owns regularly spanned he inernaional line. Te disincions beween American and Mexican blurred. Mex icans became Americans whenhe border moved, and American setlers, including ormer Presiden ViceneFox’s grandaher, rode down o make a new lie or hemselves in he souh. I was also open enough ha Mexican poliical leaders o all sripes jumped backand orh as hey wen in and ou o exile, he Unied Saes becoming an equalopporuniy sae haven.

Wih he cenral governmens ar removed, i was lef o locals o dene anddevelop hese vas lands. Wih ew highways or even adequae roads, he ron-

ier remained open, arid, sporadically inhabied, and poorly policed. In hisruly wild wes, Mexicans and Americans as ofen worked ogeher as apar o



35/215

18

ace muual challenges: hreas rom raiding Apache or Comanche Indians, orhe more mundane needs or supplies, news, and communiy.27 Border setle-mens shared re deparmens, police, rading poss, churches, and ofen social

clubs, all inegraed across inernaional lines.Tis auonomy began o wane by he urn o he wenieh cenury. Te

arrival o he railroad ransormed he hinerlands. In Ocober 1882 crowdsamassed along he border o cheer he inauguraion o he rs major cross- border rai l line, connecing he Sonoran por o Guaymas o Arizona hroughhe border a Nogales.28 Tousands more miles were soon added, connecingnearly al l o Mexico’s major ciies and mining ceners o each oher and up ohe main U.S. eas-wes rail areries. Linked or he rs ime o ar-off popu-laions and pors, he Norh’s empy prairies and isolaed oohills became

acive ranches and mines, and small setlemens blossomed ino ull-edgedciies.

As ens o housands ocked o his land in-beween, he ronier slowlyhardened ino a border. Te renzy o aciviy drew he atenion o naionalgovernmens ineresed in axing expanding rade and commerce. Te rsence was buil in 1909 beween Caliornia and Baja Caliornia o sop ickinesed catle, bu during he 1910s he idea o ences o conrol humancrossings quickly spread.29 Te Mexican Revoluion and World War I deep-ened worries on boh sides o he border, and during he Grea Depression,

he Unied Saes added Mexican immigraion o is concerns and asked henewly ormed Border Parol wih saunching he ow. By he eve o World WarII, he ederal governmens had reined in he border’s reewheeling auonomy,assering he primacy o naional agreemens and agendas.

During heir rs cenury, bilaeral relaions veered rom monumenalhighs o incredible lows. When working ogeher, U.S. and Mexican govern-mens and invesors helped ransorm and modernize Mexico or he beter.Bu when a odds, he Unied Saes managed o appropriae hal o Mexico’sphysical erriory, and a imes manipulae he poliics and economics in wha

remained. Bu hrough all he ups and downs, he ow o people, money, andgoods never sopped.

Diplomatic Distance

By he mid-wenieh cenury, he ension beween deep embraces and abrupseparaions gave way o a Prozac-induced oreign policyha or nearly ory years sudiously avoided he previous highs and lows. In par, he lack o iner-

es and inensiy reeced he undamenal asymmery in he relaionship. Afer World War II, Mexico’s imporance diminished, as he counry became



36/215


a sideshow in he Cold War showdown. Bu he deachmen also reecedMexico’s wariness and is acive work o keep he Unied Saes a arms’lengh.

Mexican leaders had always been cauious o a U.S. embrace. Bu hese sen-siiviies were culivaed and amplied by is long-ruling poliical pary, hePRI. Te PRI myhologized Mexico’s pas and is relaionship wih is largerneighbor. Lierally wrapping isel in he Mexican ag by adoping he colorsand symbols o Mexico as is own, he par y cloaked is every move in heigh-ened parioism. Tis is no o say he Unied Saes hadn’ requenly over-sepped is bounds and meddled in Mexico’s poliical and economic lie. Buhe PRI also jusied is own excesses as necessary or deending he naionagains he “Yanquis” nex door. Tis “looming hrea” narraiveendlessly

repeaed in poliical speeches, news ediorials, and grade school exbooksguided Mexico’s oreign policy in he pos-war period.30

Mexico seered clear o U.S.-led regional economic projecs, poinedlyrejecing aid hrough he Alliance or Progress (hough i received billions inunding rom he World Bank, IMF, and less high prole U.S. agencies such ashe Expor-Impor Bank). Diplomaically, Mexico hid behind a veil o sover-eigny and noninervenion. While assering auonomy on issues near homeCuba, Cenral America, or voing wihin he Organizaion o American Saes(OAS)Mexico seered clear o geting involved in broader U.S. oreign pol-

icy issues. I seadasly avoided membership in mulilaeral organizaions,declining o join he General Agreemen on ariffs and rade (GA), sayingaway rom Organizaion o he Peroleum Exporing Counries (OPEC), andrarely aking a sea on he UN Securiy Council. In he early 1950’s, i was oneo he only Lain American counries ha didn’ negoiae a bilaeral deensereay wih he Unied Saes.

In general, Mexico avoided (as did he Unied Saes) creaing new insiu-ions ha would ormally ie each counry o he oher. Tere were ew new bilaeral rade agreemens, deense pacs, or border commissions. Te only

signican policy or nearly a hal-cenury was he Bracero program, begun ahe heigh o he Second World War o address U.S. labor shorages (and a he behes o large armers and ranchers who worried abou organized labor mak-ing inroads wih U.S. agriculural workers).31 I ended in he 1960s, leaving yeanoher void in ormal ongoing relaions. Overall, he PRI culivaed cordial bu disan ies, encouraging invesmen while pushing back agains any realor imagined “Yankee imperialism.”

Acceping he reign o he PRI, he Unied Saes appreciaed Mexico’s new-ound order while i privaely disapproved o he ani-democraic and ofen

corrup means o his end. Overall, Mexico’s poliical sabiliyand is rmani-communism a homegave U.S. cold warriors he luxury o ocusing on



37/215

20

arher-away locaions: Korea, Vienam, China, and Aghanisan. Insead oinerering in Mex ico, he Unied Saes chose largely o ignore i.

Brie episodes would caapul Mexico o he op o he U.S. agenda, bu

wihou he urgencyor combaivenesso he pas. In 1968, monhs osuden-led sree demonsraionsdemanding greaer auonomy, open-ness, and ransparencyseemed o hreaen he PRI’s rm grip. Wih severalanks, housands o roops, and even some equipmen provided by he CIA,he Mexican governmen responded wih brual orce during a ral ly in MexicoCiy’s hisoric laelolco area. Tough offi cially here were jus hiry deahs,mos hisorians coun he number o proesers who died in he hundreds. AsMexican auhoriies cleaned up he day’s blood, he Unied Saes remainednoncommital and urned back o oher oreign policy concerns.

A decade laer, oil nds would again atrac U.S. atenion, coming whenhe Unied Saes was searching or relie rom he worldwide oil shock. As Americans waied hours a he gas pump, and Presiden Jimmy Carerdonning a an cardiganimplored his ellow ciizens o urn down he her-mosa o save energy, Mexico’s massive Canarell oil eld was jus coming online. By he lae 1970s millions o barrels o oil owed norh and billions o dol-lars souh, rebalancing, i briey, he bilaeral relaionship. Bu when oil pricesdeclined and an economic recession in he Unied Saes lessened demand,U.S. ineres in Mexico again waned.

Despie he shared border, Mexico hrough much o he wenieh cenuryremained a middling rading parner, jus one o many sources o migrans, amodes energy source, a peripheral world power, and a Cold War backwaer.Mexico held litle ineres in a igher embrace, pushing back whenever heUnied Saes sepped closer, or offered any opinion (much less a criicism) omaters o is souh. Bilaeral rheoric ofen alked abou a “special relaion-ship,” bu acual policy iniiaives were scarce. Tis deachmen, while decid-edly second bes o acual engagemen, allowed our wo naions o muddlehrough many years wihou real rauma.

Ever-Deepening ies

Te on-he-ground realiy was differen, one o inensiying inegraion. U.S.companies never lef Mexico, and any lingering hard eelings over oil were or-goten when Mexico became a World War II ally and a vial economic link inhe war supply chain. Afer he war, as Mexico’s PRI worked o build a mod-ern indusrial sae, i embraced U.S. indusrialiss, and hey responded in

kind, invesing roughly a billion dollars a year or decades. 32 Wheher wihMexican parners or alone, he U.S. corporaions ha enered he Mexican



38/215


marke beneed rom high ariff walls and generous governmen subsidies,reaping huge pros selling cars, racors, and ires, sodas, soaps, and ciga-retes. Wihou blinking, Mexican cusomers drank Coca-Cola, brushed heir

eeh wih Colgae oohpase, washed heir dishes wih Palmolive, and, i well-o-do, bough heir clohes a Sears Roebuck. 33 U.S. manuacurers suchas Wesinghouse, Dow Chemical, Ford, and General Moors se up shop; sup-plying Mexico’s growing needs and linking indusry back norh.

Wha did change was corporae America’s diplomaic role. U.S. businesses,no longer on he ronlines, acceped he Mexican rules o he game. Inseado pressuring he Mexican governmen, hey ofen suppored i. For insance,during he 1980s deb crisis, U.S. banks leaned on he IMF o help bail ou henaion (and hemselves). In ac, U.S. and Mexican businesses were so enhu-

siasic abou heir shared prospecs ha hey ried o lead Washingon andMexico Ciy ino a NAFA-syle agreemen a decade earlier.34

Te back and orh o people also inensied in he pos-war period. Whilemigraion was a cenuries-old realiy, he Word War II Bracero program quick-ened is pace. Over is weny-plus years, some ve million Mexicans cameo he Unied Saes legally, and perhaps anoher wo million or so ollowedmore surrepiiously in heir ooseps.35 Tese acive neworks o workersand employers coninued long afer he governmen pulled he policy plug.Reagan’s 1986 immigraion reorm inadverenly reinorced hese bonds,

cemening cross-border amilies as some wo million Mexicans became per-manen residens or ciizens.

Diplomacy Catching Up

In he 1980s and 1990s he diplomaic modus operandi began o change. Teend o he Cold War reocused U.S. oreign policy ineress, no longer dividinghe world (a leas or a decade or so) ino hose wih and agains us. Ye even

as he hrea o communism aded, ha o global economic compeiion rose.Fears o Japanese, European Union, and laer Chinese economic ascendencyled he Unied Saes o search or economic allies o couner he rise o regionalrading blocs, opening he doors o is neighbors. Domesic concernsin par-icular migraion and he war on drugsalso raised Mexico’s prole.

Mexico oo was changing. Te 1982 deb crisis lef he counry’s inward-looking and sae-heavy economy in shambles. As Mexico began a wrench-ing reorganizaion, i worked o prove is ree rade bona des by opening upis markes and nally joining he General Agreemen on ariffs and rade

(GA). An inux o Harvard, Yale, and Chicago-rained Mexican echnocrasino high level governmen posiions reduced he ani-U.S. rheoric wihin he



39/215

22

PRI. As Mexico visibly democraized, U.S. Congressional resisance o closerrelaions also diminished.

Te nal years o he wenieh cenury would again be a ime o coopera-

ion, even camaraderie, as Mexico and he Unied Saes aced he pos-Cold War world ogeher.36 Te mos concree a

Two Nations Indivisible_ Mexico, The United States, And the Road Ahead - Shannon O'Neil

Documents

Transcript of Two Nations Indivisible_ Mexico, The United States, And the Road Ahead - Shannon O'Neil