Twisted Statistics

download Twisted Statistics

of 34

  • date post

    27-Jun-2015
  • Category

    Marketing

  • view

    125
  • download

    0

Embed Size (px)

description

This session examining some of the ways that statistics can be used to misrepresent information or mislead audiences was presented at Marquette University on April 23, 2008.

Transcript of Twisted Statistics

  • 1. Twisted Statistics! ! ! Kevin A. Barnes! April 23, 2008!

2. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Tonight on Twisted Statistics! !Introduction! !Part I: When statistics go bad! !Part II: Fun with Charts & Graphs! !Part III: The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! !Part IV: Online Resources! !Questions and Conclusion! 3. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Statistics or Sadistics?! Statistics will one day be as necessary for efcient citizenship as the ability to read and write. -- H.G. Wells! There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. -- attributed (by different sources) to Mark Twain or Benjamin Disraeli! ! 4. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Types of Statistics! !Accurate! !Inaccurate (unintentionally misleading)! !Inaccurate (intentionally misleading)! 5. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Tonight on Twisted Statistics! !Introduction! !Part I: When statistics go bad! !Part II: Fun with Charts & Graphs! !Part III: The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! !Part IV: Online Resources! !Questions and Conclusion! 6. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Denitions! !Eighty-four percent of Europeans have mixed feelings about the United States.! 7. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Hyperaccuracy! !The Native American mounds in Wisconsin are 12,003 years old.! 8. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Measurement by Proxy! !Almost everyone loves Mocha-Cola. Less than 1% of Mocha-Cola drinkers have asked for their money back.! 9. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! It Sounds Shocking, So ! !Forty percent of all employee sick days occur on a Monday or a Friday.! 10. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Jumping to Conclusions! !Claim: Several individual countries have improved their infant mortality rates more than U.S. since 1980.! !Conclusion Offered: The state of health care in the U.S. is inadequate.! 11. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! In Comparison To ! !Crystal Meth use among U.S. urban teenagers is 20% lower.! 12. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Deduction is not Induction! !Observation: Sally, Betty and Joanne are women.! !Observation: Sally, Betty and Joanne love Harrison Ford.! !Conclusion: All women love Harrison Ford.! 13. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Plain Old Urban Legends! !Humans use only 10% of their brain.! 14. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Other Things to Watch ! !Make sure youre getting the whole story! !Consider the credibility of the original data source! !Do a basic logic check - do the statistics make sense, or does something seem out-of-place?! !In percentages, is the base too small! 15. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Tonight on Twisted Statistics! !Introduction! !Part I: When statistics go bad! !Part II: Fun with Charts & Graphs! !Part III: The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! !Part IV: Online Resources! !Questions and Conclusion! 16. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Fun with Charts & Graphs! From How to Lie with Statistics, Darrell Huff, 1954 17. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! More Fun with Charts & Graphs! From How to Lie with Statistics, Darrell Huff, 1954 18. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Tonight on Twisted Statistics! !Introduction! !Part I: When statistics go bad! !Part II: Fun with Charts & Graphs! !Part III: The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! !Part IV: Online Resources! !Questions and Conclusion! 19. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! 1. When you begin thinking about a research question, begin thinking about the type of data you need to collect to answer that question.! 20. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! 2. As you think about the type of data you will be collecting, think about where you will be getting that data.! 21. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! 3. Make sure the data forms you use are clear and easy to use.! 22. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! 4. Always make a duplicate copy of the data le and keep it in a separate location.! 23. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! 5. Do not rely on other people to collect or transfer your data unless you have trained them.! 24. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! 6. Plan a detailed schedule of where and when you will be collecting your data.! 25. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! 7. As soon as possible, cultivate sources for your subject pool.! 26. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! 8. Try to follow up with subjects who missed their testing session or interview.! 27. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! 9. Never discard the original data, such as test booklets, interview notes, etc.! 28. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! 10.Follow the previous 9 commandments!! Ten Commandments of Data Collection courtesy of Neil J. Salkind, University of Kansas 29. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Tonight on Twisted Statistics! !Introduction! !Part I: When statistics go bad! !Part II: Fun with Charts & Graphs! !Part III: The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! !Part IV: Online Resources! !Questions and Conclusion! 30. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Online Resources! !http://calculators.stat.ucla.edu/ => Almost every type of statistical calculator you could ever need! !http://www.davidmlane.com/hyperstat/ => Hyperstat Online - An Introductory Statistics Guide and Online Tutorial! 31. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Online Data Sources! !http://www.census.gov/main/www/ access.html => US Census Data! !http://www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/ stats.html => The University of Michigan Statistical Resources (statistical data on dozens of topics from accidents to world development)! 32. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Tonight on Twisted Statistics! !Introduction! !Part I: When statistics go bad! !Part II: Fun with Charts & Graphs! !Part III: The Ten Commandments of Data Collection! !Part IV: Online Resources! !Questions and Conclusion! 33. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Questions?! !What is the average air speed velocity of an unladen swallow?! 34. Copyright 2008. Kevin A. Barnes. All Rights Reserved! Contact Information! !Email: kevin@kevinabarnes.com! !Download a PDF of this presentation at: www.kevinabarnes.com/downloads/mu/!