Liana Talaue McManus

GEF Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme:

Contributing to Indicator-Based Management of Transboundary Aquatic Systems

GEF International Waters (IW) Focal Area: Before 2007

Are GEF investments improving aquatic systems?

…No indicator-based reference data for these

…How may GEF IW

prioritize its investments

?

Indicator-based Assessment of Transboundary Waters

Transboundary Nature: A significant level of complexity

- Geopolitical boundaries define tranboundary nature

- Resulting human interactions overlay on the natural processes that are linked

- TB properties are greater than sum of TB basin country units

- Emergent properties at TB scale are the major focus of assessment

Linked Transboundary Water Systems

• Surface and Groundwater Conjunctive Use• Upstream and downstream connectivity• Nested scales (natural; geopolitical)• Attributes at cross-component analysis

LOCAL

NATIONAL

TRANBOUNDARY

LMES & OPEN OCEAN CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Attributes of good indicators

• A measure of the state of a TB water body, subject to pressure

• Should have directionality: low to high values indicate trend from good to worse states

• Has a reference state; time series data with good spatial coverage is higher information content than a few points

• Variability in values is the statistical basis for discriminating bodies at risk

TWAP Full Sized Project (2013-15):Global Indicator-Based Assessment

Long-term goal: Promote financing of indicator (results) - based management and development of transboundary water systems

Project objective:

(1) Conduct first global assessment to assist GEF and other donors to improve the setting of funding priorities;

(2) (2) Formalize partnerships with key institutions aimed at incorporating transboundary considerations into regular assessment programs, & resulting in periodic assessments of transboundary water systems

TWAP Medium-Sized Project (2009-10)

Indicator-BasedAssessmentMethods

LeadOrganizations

ImplementingAgency

TWAP Medium-Sized Project (2009-10)

Aquifers

Lakes

Rivers

LMEs

Open Ocean

Correspondence Groups (CG) for Crosscutting Issues

SOCIO-ECONOMICS

CG

Common input dataObjective scalingClassification of vulnerable

human populations

Data & IMCG

Common data portalData access policiesMetadata standardsLinking five WG databasesWeb apps

GovernanceCG

Assessing existence of governance architecture

Assessing functionality of governance architecture among linked systems

Brief history and project goals

Elements Transboundary Aquifers:

TransboundaryLakes Basins &

Reservoirs

TransboundaryRiver Basins

Large MarineEcosystems

The Open Ocean

Spatial coverage, 2010, 2030, 2050

166 aquifers43 groundwater systems in SIDS

200 lakes/ reservoirs

276 river basins 66 LMEs, of which 55 are transboundary

Global Open Ocean

Biophysical indicators

SocioeconomicIndicators (e.g.)

Water demand by economic sector

GDP FisheriesGDP Tourism

Access to waterAccess to sanitation

Deaths due to climate related natural disasters

Vulnerability to sea level rise

Governance architecture/ arrangement (e.g.)

For Water Quantity

For Water Distribution

For Habitat Destruction

For Fisheries For Biodiversity

Data & Information Management

(next slide)

Comparative within a water system Thematic

User Feedback & Learning Refine Assessment Methods & Targets

Governanceindicators

Socio-Economicindicators

Biophysicalindicators

LME & Open Ocean database

Lakesdatabase

Riversdatabase

Aquifersdatabase

Web app

Water systeminfosheet

Water systemindicator

data download

TWAP Website

www.geftwap.org

Global Indicator-based Transboundary Waters Assessment Program

Indicator-Based Assessment Data & Product Delivery System

Indicators by Transboundary Water System

TB Groundwater - IndicatorsValue & Potential Functions1. Mean annual groundwater

recharge depth2. Annual renewable

groundwater resources per caput

3. Natural background groundwater quality

4. Aquifer buffering capacity5. Vulnerability to climate

change6. Vulnerability to pollution

CORE INDICATORSADDITIONAL INDICATORS

Importance for humans & environment1. Human dependency on

groundwater2. GW for domestic water

supply3. Groundwater for

agriculture4. Groundwater for industry5. Ecosystem dependency on

groundwater6. Prevalence of springs

Changes in groundwater state7. Groundwater depletion8. Groundwater pollution

Drivers of change and pressures1. Population density2. GW development stress

Enabling environment for management3. TB legal framework4. TB Institutional framework

Implementation of management measures5. Control of GW abstraction6. GW quality protection

TB Lake Basins & Reservoirs: Indicators/Criteria

Primary Forcing/Stress Criteria• Water stress • Land use/alteration• Nutrient loading• Others

Configurational Criteria• Lake area; Lenticity (lake area:basin area); Hydrological position & linkages

Characterizational Criteria • Population number, density & relative location; Erosion potential; Aridity

index; Biodiversity hotspots

Governance Criteria• Policies; Institutions; Stakeholder participation; Information &

communication; Finances

River Basins

Water Quantity Water Quality Ecosystems GoveranceSocio-

economics1. Environmental

Water Stress

2. Human Water Stress

3. Agricultural Water Stress

4. Nutrient Pollution

5. Urban Water Pollution

6. Biodiversity and Habitat Loss

7. Ecosystem Degradation

8. Fish Threat

9. Governance Architecture

10. Institutional Resilience

12. Economic Dependence

11. Enabling Environment

13. Societal Well-being

14. Vulnerability

Projected transboundary stress 2030 / 2050 Water Systems Interlinkages

Environmental Water Stress

Human Water Stress

Nutrient Pollution

Population Density

Institutional Resilience

Delta Vulnerability Index

Lake Influence Index

TB River Basin Indicators

Large Marine Ecosystems

PRIMARY LME INDICATORS- arranged by LME modules Productivity Fisheries Pollution & Ecosystem

health Socio-economics Governance

•Chlorophyl a

•Primary productivity

•Sea surface temperature

•Annual landings

•Catch value

•Marine trophic index/FIB index

•Stock status

•Catch from bottom impacting gear

•Fishing effort

• Catch potential projections under global warming

•Nutrients (N, P, Si)

• Index of Coastal Eutrophication Potential

•POPs in plastic pellets

•Plastic debris density

•Change in MPA coverage

•Reefs at Risk Index

•Mangrove extent

•Cumulative human impacts

•Ocean Health Index

•Fisheries revenues

•Tourism revenues

•Population within 10 m coastal elevation

•Human Development Index

•Night Light Development Index

•Deaths caused by climate related natural disasters

•Governance architecture in transboundary LMEs

Climate change, variability and impacts (e.g. impact of sea level rise on local coastal populations)

Ecosystems, habitats and biodiversity (e.g. impact of ocean acidification on polar and tropical marine ecosystems)

Fisheries, impact and sustainability (e.g. fish stock status)

Pollution and contaminants (e.g. plastic density)

Socio-economics: Human dependency and vulnerability

Governance: architecture linking global with other scales, science-policy interface

Open Ocean: Assessment themes/indicators

Open Ocean

From Indicators to Potential GEF Priorities

• Simultaneously analyze multiple DIRECTIONAL indicators to determine statistically influential indicators

• Discriminate groups of TB bodies• Identify priorities (geographic, issue-based)

– Based on global comparative analysis– Among GEF-eligible TB water bodies

(Work in progress among components)

Mockup Statistical Analyses for LMEs

7 Directional indicators• Impacts of demersal gear• Pelagic high bycatch• Index of Coastal Eutrophication• Shipping impacts• Impacts of invasives• Human Development Index (LME-scale)• Night light Development Index

Global Comparison of LMEs

Similarity Groups Among GEF-Eligible LMEs

LME Groups Using 66 LMEs

HDI-Invasives using 66 LMES (Global LME set)

HDI- Shipping among 36 GEF-Eligible LMEs

HDI-Index of Coastal Eutrophication for 36 GEF-eligible LMEs

Use of Indicators

• For global comparison – GEF IW, other donors, countries where TB Basin country units have data

• Baseline for better resolved data from subnational and national databases

• For GEF IW TDA and SAP

Demo TB Rivers Database

• http://twap-rivers.org/• Click on Results Data Portal• Password: riversoflife