TUTORIALS IN APPLIED · Web viewHOW DO I START TRADING? By Daryl Guppy We are not sure of it a sign...

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Weekly for Saturday December 15 th , 2018. Based on Thursday’s Close CONTENTS HEDGING PROFITS pg1 HOW DO I START TRADING? pg7 GMMA STRATEGY EXPLORATION part 4 pg10 GMMA STRATEGY EXPLORATION part 5 pg22 NEWSLETTER OUTLOOK: CHRISTMAS SALE pg26 PORTFOLIO CASE STUDIES: MONEY MANAGEMENT pg27 This is the last newsletter issue for 2018. It’s a bumper issue to give you some extra reading over the holiday break. It’s a good time to reassess you’re approach to the market so we have added some articles to assist. For the first time in many years, the newsletter is not carrying open positions over the Christmas period. The first newsletter for 2019 will be January 19. We wish all readers a Merry Christmas. We don’t want to be a Christmas Grinch, but we cannot ignore that fact that the XJO downtrend is solidly in place. This delivers a loss of around 8.5% since January for traders who use the buy and hold approach to the market. December 15 tht , 2018 A publication of Guppytraderscomsg Pte Ltd since 1996 CRN200409379K. Copyright © 2015 1

Transcript of TUTORIALS IN APPLIED · Web viewHOW DO I START TRADING? By Daryl Guppy We are not sure of it a sign...

Page 1: TUTORIALS IN APPLIED · Web viewHOW DO I START TRADING? By Daryl Guppy We are not sure of it a sign of the end of a bull market, but we have been getting a lot of questions recently

Weekly for Saturday December 15th, 2018. Based on Thursday’s CloseCONTENTS

HEDGING PROFITS pg1 HOW DO I START TRADING? pg7 GMMA STRATEGY EXPLORATION part 4 pg10 GMMA STRATEGY EXPLORATION part 5 pg22 NEWSLETTER OUTLOOK: CHRISTMAS SALE pg26 PORTFOLIO CASE STUDIES: MONEY MANAGEMENT pg27

This is the last newsletter issue for 2018. It’s a bumper issue to give you some extra reading over the holiday break. It’s a good time to reassess you’re approach to the market so we have added some articles to assist. For the first time in many years, the newsletter is not carrying open positions over the Christmas period. The first newsletter for 2019 will be January 19. We wish all readers a Merry Christmas.

We don’t want to be a Christmas Grinch, but we cannot ignore that fact that the XJO downtrend is solidly in place. This delivers a loss of around 8.5% since January for traders who use the buy and hold approach to the market.

December 15tht, 2018A publication of Guppytraderscomsg Pte Ltd since 1996 CRN200409379K. Copyright © 2015

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Trading band analysis has been very useful in setting both upside and downside targets. The weekly charts show the downside applications of this analysis. It’s not a promising outlook for 2019.

In recent weeks I have spoken at APEC and ASEAN conferences, and provided briefing to two international finance companies in Singapore. This slide summarizes the conclusions.

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RMD HEDGE TRADE CLOSEDThis whipsaw market has shaken us out of the case study RMD trade

which was used to demonstrate how hedging can applied to rescue some trades. For case study purposes the exit is taken on Monday when the intraday stop is triggered. The exit is at $15.24 a delivers a loss of $246.27, or 1.3% on the long side trade

The case study of the application of a hedging strategy to an open long side trade in RMD has turned this long-side trade $246.27 loss into a hedging profit of $5027.23

RMD has continued to rebound, moving above $15.85. If left open the combined hedge trade would be $5818.39 profit. But trade discipline is essential, even though in this case it delivers a lower profit.

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A quick recap for the open long side position for new readers. The RMD case study was opened as an example of an uptrend trade.

The market collapsed in October so we decided to keep the trade open and illustrate how hedging strategies could be applied. This meant opening a short position with a CFD as a hedge. The objective was to treat the price dip as temporary, collect short -side profits, and then collect profits from the uptrend continuation. .

The aim of the hedge strategy is to offset with losses on the open long-side position with profits from the short-side position. The CFD leverage accelerates profits in the falling trend.

The hedge strategy is shown below, marked to the market close on Thursday. In the hedging calculation we count the retained profit from the first and second short-side trades, now closed. This is added to the total position value.

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Currently the hedge delivers a profit of $5027.73. This is consistent

with a successful hedge strategy.

TECHNICAL ANALYSISTrend strength started in 2016 and has remained very strong for the past year.

Long term GMMA is well separated, and there is consistent separation between the two GMMA groups. This points to trend stability. TECHNICAL CONCLUSION

Strong trend behavior in past 2 years. Stress test loss in 2008 is 43% which make it’s the best of these defensive selections.

We add RMD as an example of this portfolio.Entry is near $15.43 and the stop loss is at the lower edge of the long term

GMMA near $14.87. The exit is assessed against the trend behavior on the weekly chart.

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You can download the ATR indicator for MT4 at https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/29683 Use this to improve your trade risk management.

CASE STUDY EQUITY CURVE

The long side RMD case study trade is closed for a loss of $246.27 or 1.23%. However, the combined hedging trades for RMD delivered a profit of $5027.73. The case study portfolio return is $27,122 or 27.1% for the period starting July 1, 2018 and ending June 30, 2019.

For the year starting July 1, 2017-2018, the case study portfolio return is $115,330 or 115.3%. For the year starting July 1, 2016-2017, the case study portfolio return is $92,464.15 or 92.5%. For the year starting July 1, 2015- 2016, the case study portfolio return is $156,450 or 156.45%.

Equity trade size is generally kept constant at $20,000 in the case study portfolio so it is easier to compare the case study trades over this and other years. Unless otherwise noted in the trade management notes, all equity case study trades are managed on an end of day basis, with the exit taken at the best reasonable price on the day after the stop loss is triggered.

Warrant and CFD trades are generally kept constant at $10,000. Warrant and CFD trades are closed on an intraday basis using a guaranteed stop loss as this is a primary method of managing derivative risk.

FX trades are generally kept constant at $5000. Stops are managed intraday. This capital allocation reflects the risk in each of these asset classes.

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HOW DO I START TRADING? By Daryl Guppy

We are not sure of it a sign of the end of a bull market, but we have been getting a lot of questions recently about how to start in the market.

Protecting your capital, growing your capital and finding the best return. Where and how to start are common questions. Some people examine their current job with its heavy time demands and decide that the life of a share trader sounds easy in comparison. We look at some common questions about becoming a full time share trader.

Perhaps this is the wrong question. Like any skilled profession, full time share traders are relatively rare and they tend to work for institutions. Full time private traders are rarer still. It is a skilled profession, but unlike many professions, it also offers a part time component. The skill can be applied to a single trade, or to multiple trades.

Many people use trading as a part time occupation that delivers a full time income. I believe this is a useful approach. When I started trading I was working full time on a contract position. I was on call 24 hours a day, seven days a week, with formal office hours from 7am to 6 pm.

Time was at a premium, and I knew that I would prefer to work at a job that was not quite so time demanding. The shift from earning money to making money earn for you is important. Unless you accept that the objective is to make your money work for you, then your approach to the market is most likely to be a gamblers approach, looking for quick money. The trader develops a different view of the world, and the relationship between capital and income.

The typical example of this difference is between those who want to immediately develop a replacement income for their wages, and those who want to use trading to supplement their income. The latter group focuses on the most effective use of capital. They are not after a big hit – the gamblers approach. They look for the best return on their capital rather than focus on the size of the dollar return.

When I first started, trading provided a very useful supplement to my income generated from my savings. Bank interest may have delivered an extra $2,000 a year. Active management of market investments may have delivered $10,000 a year, or more. Trading was clearly the best use I could make of my savings capital.

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The chart shows some sample returns. If we start with $100,000 in cash. Put this in the bank and you struggle to get 3.75% interest on a long term deposit. It’s not much better than the rate of inflation.

Put this with an ETF over the index and you lose around 7.7% since January 2018. Trade with this capital and we add 27.3% in six months, starting July 1. The market is simply the best use of our capital. Unlike real estate it’s not difficult to sell quickly, and settlement is in 1 day, not 30 days plus.

Pursuing a part time occupation is not the same as turning it into a full time occupation. An extra $10,000 a year on top of my wages was a welcome bonus. It came from just a few hours a week, squeezed in between other job commitments. If I did not around to opening a new trade because I was too busy, it did not have a significant impact on my standard of living. If a trade took longer to develop than I expected then the lack of cash flow did not disrupt my weekly grocery shopping. As a part time trader, I did not have to rely on the income generated from trading.

Full time trading is an entirely different beast. There is no regular income from wages. Suddenly the pressure increases because many people feel the need to see a regular weekly income from their activity. They do not like dipping into their savings to meet the weekly food bills. They believe they have to make a certain amount each week to at least match their old wage income. The tendency to gamble becomes much stronger as some trades are closed early simply to generate cash flow.

This pressure is even greater if you do not already have a substantial level of savings which you can draw on for living expenses when necessary.

In my case, when my three year contract finished I was making enough from part time trading to not have to worry about looking for traditional work. I took on full time trading only after I was able to prove that I could already make a living from it.

You become a full time trader by graduating from a part time trader when your trading income is equal to or greater than your current wage income. In this situation you will have already accumulated sufficient savings to make full time trading, with its irregular income flow, a real possibility of success.

But you do not need to become a full time trader to enjoy the benefits available from trading the market. Most people are able to very successfully use part time trading to provide an excellent supplement to their existing income. This may reduce the pressure to take on overtime, or make longer unpaid holidays are realistic option, or even hasten the drift towards part time work. These possibilities are all achievable when wage income is supplemented by part time trading income.

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This approach is the most appropriate for most people, and for most readers of this newsletter. It is also a vital first step for those who aspire to full time trading. Trading success is possible, but it is not for everyone. Treat it as a serious part time occupation first, and then make the transition based on success.

The Discretionary trading style puts the trader in the driving seat. The trader assembles a collection of his preferred indicators, assigns a level of importance to each, and then makes a decision based on his understanding of the indicator readings and trading signals. This inevitably involves some subjective judgment, and this opens the door for error. The trade is managed in the same way, and this requires a high level of confidence.

Mechanical Trading seeks to remove human intervention - and hence subjective behaviour - as much as possible from the trading equation. Typically such systems rely purely on mathematical relationships, although in establishing many systems there is subjective human input to determine the most desirable outcomes. Trade management requires discipline and a great deal of faith in the system. The temptation is to second guess the trading signals.

Intuitive Trading develops from experience, and should not be confused with the gut feelings used by novice. Experienced traders are subconsciously aware of certain patterns and market set-ups. When they see them they act intuitively drawing on many years of trading experience. This requires a high level of confidence and skill and trades are managed with certainty. These trading processes are difficult to explain. The Intuitive Trader by Koppel examines these issues in detail.

In this newsletter our emphasis is on showing how discretionary trading approaches are applied.

FILL YOUR CHRISTMAS STOCKINGWe are offering subscribers the chance to get 20% off a twelve month

subscription and 50% off all DVDs. Offer runs until January 31st 2019.

Go to www.guppytraders.com/Guppy2018Xmas

GMMA STRATEGY EXPLORATION part 4 By Alexander O’Malley

We have looked at how to break down the GMMA in the hopes of building a trading strategy around it. By looking at patterns in the charts we came up with a check list for entry as follows:

**Short Trade**1: 30ema < 60ema. Trade with the trend.2: Price touches long term GMMA. Price moves above 30ema.3: 3ema and 15ema have not crossed 60ema.4: 3ema > 15ema. coupled with check point 3, confirms a pull back.5: 3ema < 15ema. Likely trend continuation.6: Enter on next bar.

In the previous notes we left readers with a question. How do these trailing stop loss methods compared to pairs that move less?December 15tht, 2018A publication of Guppytraderscomsg Pte Ltd since 1996 CRN200409379K. Copyright © 2015

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AUDUSD is the lowest moving forex pair on our list moving an average of 70 ticks at the writing of this article, but that does not mean you cannot have decent trends. We will continue to use the 20tick stop loss, however as you will see on some of these smaller moving pairs having a stop as large as 20 ticks can sometimes feel too big, especially if your stop is half the range of the previous days price activity. This is part of the balance testing we need to do for each pair, to identify a suitable stop level that allows us to maximise our risk verse reward while allowed us to stay in most trades. If we take the examples from our initial article, we can find out which trailing stop methods works best on lower moving pairs. We have three trading opportunities to look at.

Trade 1Trade one is the initial entry into this trend. We enter at 0.7241 and have a 1

tick move against us before the trend continues. Our initial stop loss is 0.7261. Price falls from bar A to bar B for 20 ticks before rallying and our trade is now at break even. The rally from bar B to the top of bar C is 10ticks, our stop loss has not moved from BE and we are still in the trade. By the time price has reached bar D, price is now at 0.7219. Our stop loss has finally moved into profit at 0.7239 for 2 ticks of profit. The rally from bar D to E is only 12 ticks. By the time price has reached bar F at 0.7214, our stop loss has adjusted itself to 0.7234. Price then rallies, and hits out stop loss on the way towards bar G for an exciting day of 7ticks profit.

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Using the 10tick step after the initial drop to bar B where our stop moves to break even, at bar D our stop loss is still at break even. At bar F the trade has only moved a total of 27 ticks. Our stop is still at break even. This means our stop is not triggered until during trade 2.

We entered at point A at 0.7241. Price only fell a total of 27 ticks meaning our trade never made it to +10ticks and remained at break even so the pullback didn’t trigger our stop loss, allowing us to capture the following fall. At point B we were up 54 ticks, putting our stop loss at +30ticks at 0.7211. This was triggered on the next rally at point C, exiting at a profit of 30 ticks.

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Applying the ATR to the high of the current trend, just before our entry as price enters the long term GMMA we can see that price was tripped during the pullback that triggers trade 2. In this respect the ATR has done its job and captured the current trend giving us an exit at 0.7226 for 15 ticks profit.

Following on exploring the approach of applying the ATR as a stop loss on the 5min charts to capturing better profits we can see on this occasion it proved false giving only a profit of 10ticks. This is still however better than the simply trailing stop loss.

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Trade 2Trade 2 follows similarly to trade 1 in that the initial entry is into a strong move

downwards. This reduces our risk as price moves quickly into profit. This is what we like to see, the moment continues after we enter to ensure we are deep into profit quickly.

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We enter at bar A at 0.7226 and move quickly downwards towards bar B and a tidy profit of 39 ticks. Using the simple 20tick trailing stop at the bottom of bar B our stop is sitting at 0.7207. This does not change during the subsequent rally and retreat action that follows and is hit between bars E and F for a profit of 19ticks.

Using the 10tick step it is unfortunate that price did not reach the magical 40 ticks else our stop loss would have stepped down another rung. Instead our stop loss is stuck at 10ticks, having moved when price reach 30ticks of profit. The trade is exited at 0.7216 for a profit of 10ticks. However in theory we may not have taken this trade as we would still be in trade 1 using this trailing stop method.

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The ATR line on the 30m chart preforms much better on this occasion exiting the trade at 0.7204 for a profit of 22ticks. Though not the largest profit it is still the highest of the three methods over this trade and exits our position before trade three is triggered.

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The ATR trailing stop loss on the 5min chart however takes the cake once again. Capturing almost the whole downwards move and exiting at 0.7195 or 31ticks of profit.

Trade 3Like the last trade, trade 3 is a simple affair. Price momentum continues

downwards strongly, and we enter with momentum. Price moves quickly into profit. There is a small pullback initially, but price does not mean back into loss. Using the simple trailing stop loss we enter at bar A at 0.7202. The initial pullback just after bar A is only 6 ticks and we stay in the trade. We can ride price all the way down to bar B at 0.7164 where price bounces. The trade is exited at 0.7184 or 18ticks profit.

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Using the 10tick step trailing stop loss we once again run into the issue of price falling only 38ticks, failing to trigger the next step. Having triggered at 30 ticks our stop loss moves to 0.7192 and exits for 10ticks of profit.

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The ATR on the 30min chart captures this trend. Applying the ATR calculation from the high of the trend near our entry, it follows price down and gives us a good exit at 0.7180 for a profit of 22ticks. Meanwhile the ATR on the 5 min chart has failed to produce anything on this occasion.

One issue an indicator like the ATR can have is when price just hips the line and triggers an exit. In situations like this where price has just touched the line in such an obvious downtrend it is up to the trader whether to execute the exit or not. For the purposes of this test however the exit is taken at 0.7200 for 2ticks of profit.

We can see the results for all five trades across the two pairs. Across the trades during the downtrend each trailing stop method produced a profit. Each one is successful at achieving the goals of the test. Using any of these methods we can produce green in the right-hand column. However, which one gives us the best result?

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On the pair with some of the most consistent large moves the 5min ATR came out ahead of the 30min ATR. This may be due to how large some of the 30minute bars can be. By moving down to a smaller timeframe the ATR is able to get us out of trades earlier, rather than give up profit waiting for the bar to end.

On the AUDUSD pair, the pair with the smallest daily moves the 30min ATR come out on top. This is followed by the Stepped Trailing stop loss, even with two trades narrowing missing the next step. If we combine both sets of trades together, we can see the 30min and 5min ATR trailing stop loss methods are far superior to the simple and stepped methods, while being very similar in results themselves.

What happens when we apply a take profit model to these trades. A take profit model is simply letting price run until it reaches a specific profit or risk verse reward

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ratio. We like to trade with a minimum of 1:2 risk verse reward. However, in the case of AUDUSD with the moves being generally smaller you can opt for a 1:1.5. If we apply a 20tick stop and 40 tick take profit on GBPAUD, and a 15 tick stop and 20tick take profit on AUSUSD we get 80ticks from GBPAUD and 60ticks from AUSUSD. That’s a total of 140 across the five trades, beating both the simple and stepped trailing stop loss methods. It falls behind both the ATR trailing stop loss methods.

In conclusion the variable stop loss methods beat the static take profit methods, and of the variable stop loss methods the mathematical superiority of the AntsLite ATR close to doubles the potential returns.

FOR LIMITED TIME ONLYGet a trial to the FX Guppy Trading Notes as provided to AxiTrader clients

three times a week.

Email [email protected] * to participate.

EURCAD trade posted Monday 25th. 41 tick profit utalising the MT4 ATR Indicator.

39 month summary. PROGRESSIVE MARCH 2015 – May 2018 TRADE SUGGESTION RESULTS

52.84% of entered trades have been exited at target or higher. 87.5% of entered trades have been exited at a profit including those exited on

stop below profit target levels. Average profit pips per trade is 163.88 pips 494 trades were introduced since March 1, 2015. 352 trades triggered entry signals. 43.47% of entered trades were exited above trade plan target levels. 36.93% of entered trades were exited at trade plan target levels. 36.36% of entered trades were exited on stop below profit target levels 10.23% of entered trades were exited at a loss

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*terms and conditions apply

GMMA STRATEGY EXPLORATION part 5 By Alexander O’Malley

We have looked at how to break down the GMMA in the hopes of building a trading strategy around it. By looking at patterns in the charts we came up with a check list for entry as follows:

**Short Trade**1: 30ema < 60ema. Trade with the trend.2: Price touches long term GMMA. Price moves above 30ema.3: 3ema and 15ema have not crossed 60ema.4: 3ema > 15ema. coupled with check point 3, confirms a pull back.5: 3ema < 15ema. Likely trend continuation.6: Enter on next bar.

Additionally, we found that a variable trailing stop loss, whether it be on the 30min chart or the 5m chart gave better results than a static take profit or stepped/simple trailing stop loss. These are profit taking and profit protection strategies. Next we need to find one of the most important variables – the initial stop loss.

The initial stop loss can be determined in many ways. If we are looking to trade a resistance breakout then our stop loss would be a close just below that resistance level for instance. We use the 2% rule. We never risk more than 2% of our total capital in a single trade. Using this rule we can have 125 successive failures before we are broke. This does not mean we always risk 2%, it means the maximum we risk is 2%. December 15tht, 2018A publication of Guppytraderscomsg Pte Ltd since 1996 CRN200409379K. Copyright © 2015

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We try to have as tight a stop as possible to limit capital decay when we have a string of losers. But we need to give enough space for price to move. Our stop loss also dictates our risk vs reward calculation.

These are the draw figures for the original back test we did for trades between October 21st and November 27th. We can see the average initial draw is quite respectable across all six pairs with GBPCAD coming in at number 1 with an average draw of 22 ticks, while EURUSD had the lowest at 10 ticks. Setting a static stop loss of minus 16 ticks would keep us in most of the trades across 5 of the 6 pairs – on average. The problem with averages is at times they don’t account for the majority of trades due to outliers.

As an example, the chart shows all trades over the given time period. This includes the outright losers. If we take those out and look at only the trades that made ticks. This means the move went further than 10 ticks. Then our averages come down even further.

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By looking at these figures you can easily see a discrepancy. All these trades made money to varying degrees. We want to be in as many of these trades as possible and by taking the average we don’t necessarily achieve that goal. If we take the average draw and add 1 tick we go on to take profit in:

56% of EA trades36% of EC trades80% of GA trades60% of GC trades54% of EU trades71% of GU trades

These figures look about right. Besides the GBPAUD pair they are pretty average numbers. So how do we solve this? If we go back to the original chart we have an average of 15, 12, 18, 22, 10 and 15. On 4 of the 6 charts a stop of 16 ticks on average keeps us in the trades. Remember I mentioned earlier you need to give wiggle room for your trades to develop. Price needs to take a breather before continuing like a swimmer coming up for air. If we take 16 ticks and apply to the logic to the winning trades (losers would have lost anyway) we go into profit:

100% of EA trades91% of EC trades87% of GA trades65% of GC trades

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92% of EU trades95% of GU trades

With a stop loss of 16 ticks we are able to stay in the vast majority of winning trades. You could go further but then you would need to stretch out your profit taking to ensure you were getting a decent return on your winning trades to counter the losers. With a stop of 16 ticks the minimum return we would be looking at is a 1:1.5 risk vs reward or 24 ticks.

These are the maximum ticks the winning trades made from entry. Using our variable stop loss in the form of an ATR we would not have gotten these exact figures, but we are able to see what percentage of trades meet our criteria of a minimum 1:1.5 ratio.

61% of EA trades77% of EC trades80% of GA trades70% of GC trades58% of EU trades62% of GU trades

It can be expected when looking at the smaller moving pairs like EURUSD and GBPUSD they are less likely to reach the minimum ratio due to overall moves being

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smaller. This is especially true when compared to a pair like GBPAUD who is regularly over 200 5ADR range.

If we bring this back to the original set of numbers, now that we have gone through and looked at an initial stop loss and a minimum take profit for success, we can do a rudimentary comparison. It is important to remember this is not how many ticks we would have made during the money but whether we are theoretically profitable. Using a variable exit means these numbers will be larger due to being able to trade the trend further.

EA: 44% winning trades. 40 ticksEC: 56% winning trades. 168 ticksGA: 43% winning trades. 32 ticksGC: 28% winning trades. -144 ticksEU: 48% winning trades. 88 ticksGU: 47% winning trades. 80 ticks

These are not great numbers, but as I said we are looking for theoretical profitability. These numbers do not take into consideration trends continuing or trades that went 22 ticks and then reversed. They either hit 24 ticks or it didn’t, and we are profitable. Looking at the numbers these figures for GBPCAD are not correct. We can either tweak our stop loss and take profit to make it comparable to the other pairs, or simply remove it. We do not have to trade a pair if it does not work with our trading method. These trades made 264 ticks for the month, 408 if we remove GBPCAD from the trading pool. The strategy is theoretically profitable. The next step is to trade it.

That brings this series to a close. I hope you have been able to follow the process of how we dissect a strategy idea into its different parts, test each part and bring it all together to form a profitable trading strategy.

NEWSLETTER OUTLOOK: CHRISTMAS SALE By Daryl Guppy

The 5680 area support level has failed. This is not unexpected as this is not strong level and has fourth significant dips below this level. The most recent collapse to 5549 is very close to the trading band target projection.

The downtrend conditions remain strong so traders treated rebound rallies with caution. A retreat and sustained move below support near 5680 has a downside target near 5530.

Many traders are waiting for the usual Christmas rally, but there is a low probability this may develop. However it is most likely to be a rally in the context of a downtrend and will need to be traded accordingly.

The XJO index activity takes place within well-defined trading bands. These are all the same value and the chart shows how these have been projected upwards and downwards from the central trading band between 5840 and 5985. These trading bands have sometimes been exceptionally accurate, acting as strong support or resistance levels. At other times the bands have provided a brief rebound point as shown with the recent rebound from near 5680.

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The trading bands are a very useful analysis tool. There is no question that the downtrend in the XJO is very strong. This is shown

by the wide separation in the long term GMMA. Investors are aggressively selling into every rally. The trading bands, and band projections are used to set the downside targets as the rallies are overwhelmed.

We look for downtrend continuation, and that means a move below 5680 has a trading band target near 5530.

PORTFOLIO CASE STUDIES: MONEY MANAGEMENT

Starting cash position $100,000 - no brokerage or slippage 2% of risk = $2,000 NOTE Entered date is the newsletter date which contains the case study discussion.

OVERALL PROFIT TO DATE The long side RMD case study trade is closed for a loss of $246.27 or 1.23%.

However, the combined hedging trades for RMD delivered a profit of $5027.73. The case study portfolio return is $27,122 or 27.1% for the period starting July 1, 2018 and ending June 30, 2019.

The case study portfolio return is $156,450 or 156.45% for the period starting July 1, 2016-2017. Note that this includes 6 to 21 trade results. The case study portfolio return is $92,464.15 or 92.5% for the period starting July 1, 2015- 2016. December 15tht, 2018A publication of Guppytraderscomsg Pte Ltd since 1996 CRN200409379K. Copyright © 2015

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Equity trade size is generally kept constant at $20,000 in the case study portfolio so it is easier to compare the case study trades over this and other years. Unless otherwise noted in the trade management notes, all equity case study trades are managed on an end of day basis, with the exit taken at the best reasonable price on the day after the stop loss is triggered.

CUSTOMER CAUTION NOTICE AND COPYRIGHTGuppytraderscomsg Pte Ltd (CRN 200409379K) Pte Ltd is not a licensed investment advisor. This publication, which is generally available to the public, falls under the Singapore Media Advice provisions. The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial product advice. These analysis notes are based on our experience of applying technical analysis to the market and are designed to be used as a tutorial showing how technical analysis can be applied to a chart example based on recent trading data. This newsletter is a tool to assist you in your personal judgment. It is not designed to replace your Licensed Financial Consultant or your Stockbroker. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs because readers come from diverse backgrounds, with diverse objectives and financial situations. This information is of a general nature only so you should seek independent advice from your broker or other investment advisors as appropriate before taking any action. The publication should not be construed by any reader as Publisher's (i) solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or (ii) provision of any investment related advice or services tailored to any particular individual's financial situation or investment objective(s). Readers do not receive investment advisory, investment supervisory or investment management services, nor the initial or ongoing review or monitoring of the reader's individual investment portfolio or individual particular needs. Therefore, no reader should assume that the Publisher serves as a substitute for individual personalized advice from a licensed financial professional of the reader's choosing. The decision to trade and the method of trading is for the reader alone to decide. The reader maintains absolute discretion as to whether or not to follow any portion of our content. Publisher does not offer or provide any implementation services, nor does it offer or provide initial or ongoing individual personalized advice. It remains the reader's exclusive responsibility to review and evaluate the content and to determine whether to accept or reject any strategy and to correspondingly determine whether any such strategy is appropriate for a reader's individual situation. Publisher expresses no opinion as to whether any of strategy contained on this publication is appropriate for a reader's individual situation. The author and publisher expressly disclaim all and any liability to any person, whether the purchase of this publication or not, in respect of anything and of the consequences of any thing done or omitted to be done by any such person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of this publication. Neither Guppytraderscomsg Pte Limited nor its officers, employees and agents, will be liable for any loss or damage incurred by any person directly or indirectly as a result of reliance on the information contained in this publication. The information contained in this newsletter is copyright and for the sole use of trial and prepaid readers. It cannot be circulated to other readers without the permission of the publisher. Each issue now incorporates fingerprint protection that enables us to track the original source of pirate copies. If we find that you are redistributing the newsletter then, at our discretion, we will reduce the length of your paid subscription by the value of the multiple copies we believe you are circulating. Share with nine friends, and we cut your subscription period by 90%. Contributed materials reflect the personal opinion of the authors and are not necessarily those of the publisher. Articles accurately reflect the personal views of the authors. Stocks held by the authors are marked* and are not to be taken as a trading recommendation. This is not a newsletter of stock tips. Case study trades are notional and analysed in real time on a weekly basis. Any past investment-related performance .referred to may not be indicative of future results, and therefore, no reader should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy will be suitable or profitable for a reader's portfolio, or equal historical or anticipated performance level(s). Guppytraderscomsg Pte Ltd does not receive any benefit or fee from any of the stocks reviewed in the newsletter. Guppytraderscomsg Pte Ltd is an independent international financial education organization and research is supported by subscription fees. 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