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Turning vision into_impact_(icc)
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Transcript of Turning vision into_impact_(icc)
GEORGE C. MARSHALL CENTERCollege of International and Security StudiesGarmisch – Partenkirchen, Germany
LTC ULRICH M. JANSSEN M.SC.Email: [email protected]: Ulrich JanßenTwitter: @UliJanOgauPhone: +49-8821-750-2658 · DSN 440-2658
Turning Vision Into ImpactThe Changing Character of ConflictChallenges in Behavioural ConflictIntegrated Crisis Communications Planning considerations to ensure C6
The desired effect … impact Integration in Narrative-led Comprehensive
Operations
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C2W“Military Facts”
Peace Crisis/Conflict War Transition Post War Peace
“War is merely the continuation of politics by other means.”Center of Gravity: enemy / enemy capabilities
Human AssistanceCivil EngagementReconstruction(Marshall Plan)
IW(1970)IO(1995-98)
Military Intervention in the Clausewitz’ian sense
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Ongoing significant changes since 1990 Cause of conflict and related threats Geographic Focus Strategy and Complexity We, the enemy, and other actors Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures Role & Training Needs Technology & Information Communications
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Challenge #3Asymmetric Strategies in the early 21st Century Cyber Warfare / Anti-Satellite Warfare
China/Russia RUS ./. EST, RUS ./. GEO Cyber Operations
Nuclear Deterrence North Korea, Iran
Global / Regional Terrorist Networks Al Qaeda, ISIS (ISIL, Daesh)
Insurgencies Afghanistan, Iraq
Hybrid War Ukraine, Syria
Civil Unrest Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen
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Challenge #4Multiple Actors in Crisis Management
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UN OSCE EU NATO NGO PMCGO SingleNation Others
Action
Action
Action
Action
Action
Action
Action
Action
Action
Uncoordinated action generate uncoordinated / unplanned effectsCrisis resolution hard to predictSuccess depending on continuous presence and engagement of the ICLong-term commitment required (high costs)
Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects
Challenge #6 Revolution in Technology and Enhanced Connectivity
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"The extent, depth, andspeed of the new globalmedia have created anew species of effects...The military must understand, anticipate, andplan for this new dynamic." (Margaret H. Belknap, 2001)
“Military Facts”
MediaSocial structures
Political / Civilstructures
Key Players/Actors Economy
TransportationFinance
Culture
CommunicationGrids
Peace Crisis/Conflict War Transition Post War Peace
People Tradition
ReligionLawEmotions
Education
“War is merely the failure of communications by other means.” (Clausewitz adapted by UJ)
Center of Gravity: people’s perception
Info Ops(> 2001)StratCom(> 2009)
Military Intervention in Operations other than War
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NATO UNCLASSIFIED
Planning Consideration #1The Product powered by the Power of Information
Political CivilMilitary Economic
UNCLASSIFIED
i = 0 1 i = 1 MPEC i > 1 exponentially adding value
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Planning Consideration #2Restore Deterrence in the Social Age
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Deterrence in the Social Age
Deterrence in the Information Age
Deterrence in the Nuclear Age
Planning Consideration #3People in the Focus
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"An endless struggle will be pursued between violence and friendly persuasion... And henceforth, the only honourable course will be to stake everything on a formidable gamble - that WORDS are more powerful than MUNITIONS." Albert Camus (1913-1960)
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“Don’t ask what ideas are needed to turn a situation
into good, ask what YOU can do
to make good ideas happen!”
Planning Consideration #3Restore deterrence in the Social Age
19-Nov-15 25UNCLASSIFIED
“For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of
skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is
the acme of skill.”
Planning Considerations #3Successful Communications
Paul WatzlawikOne cannot NOT communicate!Dave WatermanEBC · Effects-based CommunicationsMarketingAIDA · Attention, Interest, Desire, ActionMark Laity5S · Simplify, Shorten, Share, Sustain, and StaffChip & Dan Heath: Made to StickSUCCESS · Simple, Unexpected, Concrete, Credible, Emotional, StorieSG. Richard Shell, Mario Moussa: The Art of WOOUsing strategic persuasion to sell your ideas
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“Goods” to sell · Return on InvestThreat reduction
Increased SecurityStability
Lasting PeaceParticipationPartnership
Higher EducationImproved Healthcare
FreedomHappiness
“America is good in selling cars, but fails in selling foreign policy goals and objectives.”
Henry Kissinger in:World Order (2014)
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Summary & ConclusionChanging Character of Conflict• War of Choice• 21st Century Strategies &
Means• Multiple Actors, Multiple Effects• Technology changing
Communications• Battlefield of the Media• The Unknown Unknowns• Behavioural Conflict
Planning Considerations• [MxPxExC] powered by I• Restoration of Deterrence in
the Social Age• inspiring
• People in the Focus• Walk the Talk• Narrative-led Operations
• The 3 Questions• Don’t tell them, inspire them
• Successful Communications• Audience Analysis
• Motivation• Perception
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Turning Vision Into ImpactFinal thoughts
Narrative (values & beliefs)Strategy (vision & objectives)Implementation Planning (step-by-step, effect by effect)Supporting Plans & ResourcesWalk the Talk (activities; going public)
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