1. Turkey on theRoadtoEconomicandPoliticalFreedoms
Prof. Dr. Mustafa Acar
KirikkaleUniversity
Department of Economics
01.11.2010
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2. plan
FactsaboutTurkey
Importance of Turkeyforthe MENA region
Recentpoliticalandeconomicreforms in Turkey
Macroindicators
Economicfreedomperformance
Conclusion
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5. FactsaboutTurkey
Population: 72 million (98% Muslim)
Location: Anatolia; bridgebetweenAsiaandEurope
Politicalsystem: parliamentarydemocarcy vs. bureaucraticguardianshipregime!
Economicsystem: transitionfromcentrallyplannedtofree market economy
Internationalrelations: UN, NATO, OECD, UN securitycouncil; EU candidate
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6. GDP (PPP)
$960 billion (2010)
$874.5 billion (2009 est.)
$926.4 billion (2008 est.)
Comparison to the world: 16
ComparisontoEurope: 6
Target: amongthebiggest 10 by 2023
Projection: 4th by 2050!
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7. GDP p.c.
$13,300 (2010 est.)
$11,400 (2009 est.)
$12,200 (2008 est.)
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8. breakdown of GDP (2009)
agriculture: 9.3%
industry: 25.6%
services: 65.1%
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9. Publicdebts
46.3% of GDP (2009 est.)
40% of GDP (2008 est.)
Maastrichtcriteria: 60%
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10. Twindeficits (2009)
CAB: -2% of GDP
BudgetDeficit: -5.5% of GDP
-1.0% (2008)
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11. Importance of Turkeyforthe MENA
Stronghistorical, culturalties
Ottomanheritage: 1513-1922
Familyties in neighboringcountries
Muslimdemocracy
Recenteffortstostrengthenties:visaagreements, investments, trade
Onlycountry in theregionwhohavediplomaticrelationswith Iran, Syria, Israel, Palestine..
Pipelines: Kirkuk-Yumurtalk, Baku-Tiblisi-Ceyhan, Nabucco..
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12. Whatshappening in Turkey?
Dramaticchanges:
Political
Economic
Legal reforms
Makingpeacewith:
History
Neighbors
Ownpeople (Kurds, Alevis, Sunnis, non-Muslims)
Healingfrom historicallobotomy (G. Fuller)
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13. Factorsbehindtransformation
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14. Externalfactors
Globalization
End of ColdWar
Changingexpectations
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15. Internalfactors
zal reforms (1980s)
Lessonsfromexperience of thepastcrises (1994, 99, 2000-01)
Emergence of a newmiddleclass (conservative-religiousbourgeoisie)
AnatolianTigers
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16. Recentreforms
Politicalreforms
Legal reforms
Economicreforms
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17. Politicaland legal reforms
Constitutional reform (Sep. 12, 2010)
Legal reforms: reducingthe role of military in politicalaffairs
Independentandimpartialjudiciary
Endbureaucraticguardianshipregime
New foreignpolicyperspective: Zero-problem withneighbors
Democraticopening process: peacefulsolutiontoKurdish problem
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18. Economicreforms
Fiscaldiscipline: BD: 3%,
IMF condition: 6.5% primarysurplus
AutonomousCentral Bank: inflation-targeting
New currency: removing 6 zerosfrom TL
Privatizations:$40 b
fiscalrule: on theway
Promotinginvestments, deregulations..
Institutionaland legal reformsfor EU adjustment (negotiatons)
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19. Successstory
Improvements in manymacroindicators
Growthaccelerated
GDP pcincreased
Inflationfelldown
Budgetdeficitsnarrowed
Publicdebtsshrank
Interestratesfell
Exportsincreaed
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20. Acceleratedgrowth
(1993-2001): 3%
(2002-2008): 6.1%
2009: -4.7%
2010: 10.3%
3rd fastestgrowingeconomy in theworld
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21. Growthperformance
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22. Incomepc has goneup
pc GDP
2001: $2,160
2010: $13,300
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23. GDP pc
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24. Budgetdeficitnarrowed
2001: 16% of GDP
2008: 1%
2010: 3%
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25. Budgetdeficits
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26. Publicdebtsundercontrol
2001: 80% of GDP
2009: 46.3%
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27. Publicdebts
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28. Inflationfelldown
singledigitinflationafter 3 decades!
CPI
(2002) 45,0%
(2010) 9.2%
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29. Pricestability
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30. Exportsincreased
(2002): 36 (billion $)
(2008): 132
(2009): 102
(2010): 115
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31. Exports
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32. Othermacroindicators
Interestrates (%): (2002) 44, (2010) 6.5
FX reserves: 2002: $26, 2010: $75 b
Constructionfirms (outside): (1972-2002): $1.5, 2009: $23.6 b
Stockexchange (index): (2009): 27,000; (2010): 71,000
FDIs: longtermaverage: below $1 b, 2007: $22 b (5th amongdevelopingcountries)
Unemployment (% ): (2002) 10.3, (2010) 10.6
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33. Areas of economicfreedom
Size of government
Legal structureandpropertyrigths
Soundmoney
Freetrade
Regulation
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34. Overallefwscore: Turkey
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35. EFW trends (Turkey)
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36. Areas of improvement
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37. Conclusion
Turkey is an importantcountryandpoliticalactor in theregion
Goingthrough a tremendouspolitical, legal andeconomictransformationprocess
Havebigtargets: EU membership, 10th biggesteconomy in theworld, peaceandstability..
Measurableconsequences of thereforms
There is still a longwaytogo
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38. Thankyou
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