Turbine Supply Agreements 30 October 2012, GIZ Workshop, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Turbine Supply Agreements30 October 2012, GIZ Workshop, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Contents

GL Garrad Hassan1.

2.

3.

Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability

Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’

4. Summary

Local understanding forms a global perspective

GL Garrad Hassan: 1,000+ staff, 44 locations, 26 countries

Vancouver

Ottawa

Portland

San Diego

Montreal

Peterborough

Austin

Querétaro

Porto Alegre

Santiago

Beijing

Seoul

Tokyo

Shanghai

Mumbai

Bangkok

Bangalore

Singapore

Newcastle

Wellington

Melbourne

Bristol Cork Paris

IzmirCairo

CopenhagenHinnerupOldenburgHamburgWarsaw

Lisbon Barcelona ZaragozaMadrid

Imola

LondonSlough

Glasgow

Cape Town

HeerenveenSint Maarten Kaiser-Wilhelm- Koog

Part of the GL Group: renewables, oil & gas, maritime

GL Garrad Hassan Capabilities

• The world’s largest renewable energy consultancy. It offers independent technical and engineering services, products, and training courses to the onshore and offshore wind, wave, tidal and solar sectors.

• Has been supporting investors in wind farms for over two decades. The detailed technical understanding of its experts provides a solid basis for informing intelligent decisions, regardless of the scale of the project or investment, or the lifecycle stage.

• Has worked with almost every major manufacturer. It has led the market for manufacturer services for many years and is continuously developing its industry standard turbine design software.

Wind: Experience MattersEnergy Assessment• analysing 20,000 MW of new projects per year• 25% of all projects worldwide• 70% of UK installed capacity• 75% of Irish installed capacity

Operational Assessment• 15% of the world’s installed capacity

Due Diligence• over 25% of the world’s project financed wind

farms• world’s largest wind farm portfolio acquisition• world’s first wind energy bond deal

Independent Engineer• 45% of US wind farms• The world’s five largest wind farm financings• The first project financed offshore wind farm

Short-term forecasting• over 20% of the world’s operational capacity

Measurements• power curve measurements on 500+ turbines• load measurements on 100+ turbines• founding member of MEASNET• first ever load measurements on offshore wind farm

Products / software solutions• Industry standard wind turbine design software -

Bladed• Bladed used to design world’s largest turbine• world‘s largest independent SCADA supplier – 6,000

MW

Offshore Wind• project management of world’s largest offshore wind

farm - Thanet

Contents

GL Garrad Hassan1.

2.

3.



4. Summary

Environmental Criteria

Annual average air density kg/m3Max. temperature CMin. temperature CLightning Risk strikes/km2/yr Altitude a.s.l. MTerrain class Simple/complex Maximum slope deg.Corrosion classDust riskSeismic class

Annual mean wind speed at hub height (max.) m/s

Extreme 50-year wind speed 3 second gust m/s

Average turbulence intensity at hub height % (@ 15 m/s)

Turbine spacing Rotor Diameters

• The following site-specific environmental criteria should be considered when assessing turbine suitability:

IEC Classification

• Site specific characteristics should be compared to turbine class limits as defined in IEC 61400, as follows:

Certification Process

• Certification is used to give a standard measure of quality and is undertaken by recognised international classification bodies, including GL Renewables Certification.

• For wind projects, the certification process confirms conformity with design standards according to ‘IEC 61400’ part 1 – safety systems.

• Statement of Compliance for the A / B / C Design Assessment.

Certification Process

• Additional requirements exist in order to obtain Type Certification in accordance with IEC WT 01.

Certified Turbines

• A detailed list of certifications and references for wind turbines, offshore projects, condition monitoring systems / monitoring bodies, electrical components, foundations, gearboxes, grid code compliance, rotor blades, and towers can be from the GL Renewables Certification website.

• http://www.gl-group.com/en/certification/renewables/ListOfCertifications.php

Other Considerations

• When considering turbine suitability, consideration needs to be given to other factors including:• power curve and energy production (!!!)• planning compliance and development constraints.• electricity grid reliability and connection requirements.• site access, transportation and storage.• availability of installation and maintenance equipment (eg. cranes).• anticipated operating temperatures.• tropical storm activity.

Contents

GL Garrad Hassan1.

2.

3.


Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’’

4. Summary

SIT

E D

ISC

OV

ER

Y

DEVELOPMENT PHASE(0.5 to several years)

FIN

AC

IAL

CL

OS

E

CONSTRUCTION PHASE(12 to 18 months)

TA

KE

OV

ER

OPERATIONAL PHASE(20 to 25 years)

DIS

CO

NN

EC

TIO

N

CO

NC

LU

SIO

N

DECOMISSIONING PHASE(3 to 4 months)

CA

SH

FL

OW

MEDIUM RISK &LOW INVESTMENT

HIGH RISK & HIGH INVESTMENT

MEDIUM RISK & MEDIUMRETURN

MEDIUM RISK & HIGH

RETURN

LOW RISK & LOW RETURN

BREAK EVEN(loan repaid)

Wind Farm Project Cashflow

Wind Farm Investment Risks

• What are some of the key investment risks in a wind farm project?

Risk ExampleEnergy Measurement and Analysis

Deviation from base case due to uncertainty or error in the measurement and/or analysis?

Operating Performance Deviation from the base case due to machine breakdown or other reason to shut down turbines or the wind farm?

Technology Is it reliable and how much will it cost to operate?Cost Overrun Will there be an additional funding requirement for additional equipment or will the

contracts claim for additional costs?Delay Will the revenues start in time to pay the first loan repayment?Credit Risk What is the risk of bankruptcy of a counterpartyRegulation Is there a risk of change in green energy support pricing or grid regulation?Insurance Will it be available and at what price?Financial Is there a risk of interest rate and foreign exchange changes?Country Risks Political instability or regulation change. Also climate risks.

Initial Proposal

Initial Banking Model

Term Sheet

Credit Approval

Syndication

FIN

AC

IAL

C

LO

SE- 6

months- 5 months

- 2 months

- 1 month

Construction Draw Down

Detailed Banking Model, audit & tax

Basi

c Feasi

bili

ty

Model

+18 months

Operational Repayments

+ Xyears

Energy AssessmentDue Diligence (legal, technical, insurance)

Due DiligenceMonitoring

Due DiligenceMonitoring

Final Acceptance

Final Payment

Wind Farm Project Financing Timeline

Turbine Pricing

Global wind turbine price index by delivery date:

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / International Renewable Energy Agency

Australia

United States

China

Japan

Effecting power output:

• Optimum Hub Height

• Optimum Blade diameter

• Proven Installation record

• Proven Availability record

• Proven component reliability

• Proven power & thrust curve

• Proven climate / icing control

• Correct IEC class, type certified

KEY CONSIDERATIONSTURBINE DESIGN

Turbine Technological Risk

Key Technical Considerations

• The key technical considerations for turbine selection include:• What is the Gearbox reliability?• What is the Generator reliability?• How much Capital cost is involved?• How much are the long term O&M costs?• What quality assurances are there?

Local Content

List of existing and proposed wind turbine manufacturing facilities in Vietnam:

Source: Make Consulting

A Proven Turbine Model?

• For a genuine evolution from a smaller turbine GL GH may consider that the turbine may be considered proven if the following conditions are met:• Capable of performing the contractual and commercial obligations.• Certification is current (and valid) – design, type (and class – I, II, III & S).• There are 100 turbines in operation.• At least one turbine with more than 10,000 hours of operation.• A fleet with in excess of 50,000 cumulative hours.• Greater than 95 % average availability of the fleet.• Availability of independent test reports (unless a commodity).

Contents

GL Garrad Hassan1.

2.

3.



4. Summary

Summary

• Demonstrate suitability for site - certification and site comparison.• Include certification requirements in specification.• Make sure that the designed turbine will be delivered as per specification.• Ensure independent test reports unless a “commodity”.• Choose a turbine with maximum track record.• Specify environmental, performance and reliability requirements.• Use the IEC standards as far as possible.• Ensure local / national compliance.

Thank-you!

Daniel Astbury – Senior Engineer, Business Development Manager – Thailand

[email protected]

Turbine Supply Agreements 30 October 2012, GIZ Workshop, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

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Transcript of Turbine Supply Agreements 30 October 2012, GIZ Workshop, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.